With recent UK Employment data, GBP looks even stronger now. I am opening a long GBP/USD position for a month, based on fundamental analysis:
Positive impact
Strong retail sales report (April and May 2014)
Positive UK Manufacturing PMI (May 2014)
High Services PMI number (May 2014)
UK CPI is higher than expected (May 2014)
UK Unemployment report is positive (June 2014)
Negative impact
UK construction PMI slides (May 2014)
UK Unemployment report is weak (May 2014)
Good luck,
CxInvestor,
Fundamental Trader
Sounds like you’ve done your homework well. Best of luck with this one! Keep us posted if you’re making any adjustments or adding to your position.
What about USD-based event risk / fundamentals?
GBP/USD plays pretty nice so far, after BOE Carney signalled a possible GBP rate hike.
Re USD fundamentals - they are indeed important, but for the sake of simplicity, the GBP/USD trend is clearly up, which means that positive GBP fundamentals outweighs.
Fundamental Trader @ CxInvestor
Going long the GBPUSD this year has been of of my biggest trades (I did have a few occasional short positions to profit from minor corrections), but I think going long even from current levels above 1.7000 will result in decent profits over the next few months.
Seems like that 1.7000 resistance is holdin’ like a boss! Think this week’s set of UK data (CPI, retail sales, BOE minutes) could lead to an upside break?
Certainly, as TheLastBear mentioned - the pair has still enough room to move further up.
Fundamental Trader @ CxInvestor
In case it support a rate hike I think it can really boost the GBP. It was my opinion that the BoE may raise interest rates in Q4 this year, maybe at their last meeting of 2014. This of course depends on how the economy will perform over the next five months.
Yep, that’s true. Carney did hint that they’re willing to tighten within the year though, and the latest BOE minutes showed support for that claim. Seems like the FOMC had a hand in pushing GBP/USD higher too!
GBP/USD shines…
Good luck,
CxInvestor,
Fundamental Trader.