Long Term Success is IMPOSSIBLE

Beginner Questions
1

Hello, I am posting this for anyone that is just starting out in Forex or has been trading some time without success. I have been a trader for 4 years and never made more than what I lost. Today I am walking away from this terrible game and I would advise you guys to do the same. I am not open for debate as I believe anyone that is on a forum is a losing trader like the blind leading the blind. Lets be honest…Most of you guys are losing traders and barely make enough to fill your tank of gas. So please don’t reply as if you are actually a winning trader…it’s just a joke at this point. If you reply negatively, please attach your verified trade performance.

Now, here’s why you cannot win in Forex in the long run…

  1. The brokers and educators teach you systems and strategies that are designed to fail so that the banks and institution can have liquidity. They are the only traders that are winning…simply because they have the resources and the money to control the markets.

  2. Technical analysis is a JOKE. Trend lines, Support/Resistance, MA’s, Fibs…all that crap doesn’t work more than it fails, especially in real time.

  3. Risk to Reward isn’t realistic at all…getting a profit at least 2 times your risk is only in a perfect world. The fact of the matter is, you’ll probably lose so much, that by the time you actually get a reward. it will not cover the losses that you took. Let’s face some facts here…the average trader can’t even win 50% of the time. Most traders win about 10% - 20% of the time. How is a reward to risk ratio going to help win you don’t even win 50% of your trades? Your more likely to get stopped out before making a profit. Most people that have some type of success, don’t even use a Stop loss… Go to any verified trader performance, you’ll see they rarely use a stop and they only use a Take Profit. This is because they realize that as long as you have stop loss, you will be a losing trader. The only way to make any type of profit is to leave the losing trades open in hopes of a retrace, and close out your winners until one day you can liquidate all positions for net profit. This works in ranging markets but you will get killed in a trending market if you do this. Most successful traders are only successful for a short time, and then wipe out their accounts…these are FACTS.

  4. Don’t think about “Trend Following” because by the time you think about joining a trend, the trend has already ended. Everything always looks good in hind sight. Also, the markets don’t trend enough for one to take advantage of. Most of the time when you think the market is trending, it’s really just a correction or a range market on the higher time frames.

  5. News trading is BULL SH!T. there is no proof that the news reflects in the charts. At most, you may see a volatile reaction when big news comes out, but soon after you’ll see the market go right back to what is was doing before…which is randomness. An economy can be very healthy, but the charts will be downtrending…so we can go ahead and mark off news trading.

My point in writing this not to be negative, but to be realistic. Forex is the most competitive market in the world and you are going against some of the most intelligent traders in the world. You can’t stand a chance. Brokers are laughing at you because they know no matter how many times you lose, you will still play the game. Ask yourself, how many times have you made deposit, now ask yourself how many times have you made a withdraw? My point exactly! There are other ways to make money guys…Forex is not the way to do it. The only way to make money off of Forex is to sell a product to desperate losing traders. I have lost a lot of friends and loved ones due to this devils game. Iv’e lost weight and have went through a lot of depression. I put my all into this and never made a consistent profit. Iv’e learned any type of concept you can image…none of it works. Iv’e even tried to make only one pip a day just to see if it could work, and eventually it failed as well. There’s no way to beat these markets in the long run. Hopefully this will stop some of you from taking the red pill.

2

I guess it is easier to rationalise your failure, than admitting, that you couldn’t make it. Do as you want man, but I think trying to mask your personal failure as a scientific evidence, and as an attempt to save others from the markets, is just pure selfishness.

Oh and I didn’t mention if I’m profitable or not, so don’t attack back with that if possible. Because you are going to attack back, I guarantee that.

3

Hes right.

I mean im sorry to everyone if this sunds harsh. But take it effectively the way it is and see some reality. Traders are trader, beeing teached by people who do this job as their only profession for decades. Most people here i see say thing like “hey im a firwfihter i want to learn trading” or “hey im a mechanic i want to learn trading” or “hey im a business owner i want to learn trading” and when i read this all i can think of is: when you need a surgeon, do you do it yourself?

People think they will become a doctor doing an online course?

As stupid as this may sound to most people here, but you are fighting agains the elite of this world. Elite universities, elite colleges, elite companies which are doing this since a hundret year, people who are beein taught all their life to do this starting from high school till their 45/50… 30/40 years of experience, trying to beat with few online courses and 30 minutes a day inveted time over 1-2 years?

i mentioned doctors, elite, yes, but do you know whats funny? whats truly funny is that there are only a handful top paid doctors that earn as much a lously paid professional financial analyst/trader/whatever. When you fail in trading/finances you can still become a doctor :wink:

To trading/making money on financial markets theres only one approach: either you do it full time giving your all into it or you let others do it for you and be happy with 5-10% return a year.

4

bye:17::39:

5

one thing he above mentioned saying “if you use stop loss youre a loosing traders”…

i must agree to this.

after reading this forum for months i realized that noone ever talked about votality or any votality statistics/indicators. i see so many useless indicators beein shared here or tactic with what indicator mixed with what lacking oscilator to use and where to put a stop loss calculated on a win/risk reward ratio… but how can you calculate a risk/reward ratio without any statistics on votality? noone is talking about it even thou it is one of the mot importat statistical tools you can learn to use in your favour.

trading in a day range how can you set a fixed-always-the-same-number-stop-loss totally ignoring the dayly trading range of the market that you are trading in?

just to give you an example:

the market you are trading in is having a votalityof 300 points daily on average the last 5 ears, so you know its going 150 +/- into two directions: you identify a trend/long/intermediate/daily… why do you need a stop loss? you dont need one at all, you do your ristk/reward calculation on loosing maximum 300 points, max gain is 900 points. You enter the market and see what happens the next day… ur only 150 point minus? great, no need to leave… day after again, your 300 points minus? ok lets leave… 2 days it went against you in both days in a full votality range of 150 points a day? theres no need to stay in it any longer, you leave and enter the counter position immediately, game starts again.

stting a stop loss of 20/30 point? whats the use of this? some markets do 20-30 points within minutes sometmes even within seconds and in rare cases even gaps in a damn hour chart cn reach a 30 point size

6

I like these threads, very amusing. Believe as you wish, at the end of the day if your not cut out for it then your simply not cut out for it. No one ever said this was easy, and being in the top 1% of any industry is not going to be a walk in the park. Good luck on your next endeavor, I believe roses are in high demand this weekend due to Valentines Day - get rich quick?

7

Volatility is discussed on here, you just haven’t found the right threads yet

8

Only when you attach proof that you traded consitently, disciplined. :slight_smile:

Nah. I agree on the educators. They wouldn’t be teaching when they made their millions, so something is fishy when they do. But the banks don’t need our liquidity, because most of us don’t trade directly on the market. And they don’t trade to make money, but because they are asked by their clients to buy or sell, so their clients offer them liquidity, because their clients pay what the bank paid for it (and some).

Techn. analysis is a prediction method, but not the truth in itself. It is easy to see S&R lines where they actually aren’t. But if you traded with the flow you probably didn’t had a lot to do with S&Rs. Did you perhaps traded against the flow and expected everytime that the S&R would prevent reaching your stoploss? If so, perhaps your trade strategy may be off.

Also, tech. analysis only partly covers the effect of news events, but you talk about that later.

How do you know that these are facts? It looks to me that you are just trying to convince yourself that it is not you but the world that made you lose. I have bigger risk/rewards than you mention. It is all in your trading style.

When you cannot overcome that thought you indeed will never make it. There is no hidden force working against you, just yourself as a trader making poor decisions.

You shouldn’t be JOINING a trend, you should already be in it! Don’t wait until all confirmations check-up. See it developing and act.

:slight_smile: Too long to explain why you are wrong. In short: the high volatility is the moment where traders take their positions based on the news. If the effect of the news is already in line with the trend, the trend will continue. But there are enough examples where it changed the direction. Not long ago the chineze markets dropped, are they back on their feet again?

  • My point in writing this not to be negative, but to be realistic.
    *** No, you are just frustrated. It would be realistic when you look at yourself. You entered trends too late and tried to trade the news. It looks like you have traded different styles at the same time. Don’t blame the world, have a look at yourself as a trader and be realistic.

  • Forex is the most competitive market in the world and you are going against some of the most intelligent traders in the world.
    *** Actually, it is commonly known that most traders aren’t brillliant. Big companies aren’t looking to the brightest but for the most moldable of people you are consistent in their execution. Again, look at yourself, you are hoping to have lost against the brightest people on earth, so that makes it feel a bit better, but it is your own illusion.

  • Brokers are laughing at you because they know no matter how many times you lose, you will still play the game.
    *** Yes, they earn when we trade. They are not laughing, they are concerned that it will one day dry-up and they are out of business.

I am sorry that it caused you so much problems. I can understand that these effects made you panic and probably became wreckless. It sounds like you went into it too deeply. If needed I am willing to help you to learn it, but you have to overcome your feelings first. You cannot trade in the state you are in right now, no matter your strategy. Takke a break (sounds you have no choice anyway), and when you feel better return and see if you are open to what you did wrong. \

PM me if you feel the need to chat with someone other than the people around you who don’t understand the fx-market at all and think that you are just gambling.

9

How nice of you Toekan, but it looks like he is in quiksand at this point, already has mindset that its a game, and everyone is against him…

If major news breaks out of line with an announcement, you’ll wish you had a stoploss. Not using them isnt bright, but when your using .002% of your account, a 300 pip stop ZONE isnt really nothing.

“In this business, you have to take what you can get, not try to take what you think it will give”. - MoneyNVRSleeps

10

This is hot disscussion I think, indeed forex trading is risky and not always using indicator as help tol will giving good result because indicator can’t created price being move but usually only following previous data, although news sometime not influenced in currency but sometime givng impact also, market participant is mystey, but still possible to treat forex for long run if really understand market condition that has high possiblity to making profit

11

Hi bwillz,

You are totally right, I decide quit forex from manaul trading, except my EA.
My problem is discipline and emotion issue.
I have tried scalping,swing,position,trend following strategy.
All work untill I break the discipline.

But funny, my EA is profit consistent for 2 months with my swing and pa strategy.
For those people without discipline and emotion controling, like me,
EA maybe is the final strategy to forex.
I will run my ea only with money management, when ea win a order with taketarget,
manual add 0.01 lot, if loss, minus 0.01 lot.

Hi friend, you have in forex for four years, quit is not easy from emotion, i trade fx for 1.5 years,
loss many by manual trade, quit is also hard as enotion connection to this forex business.

if you are interesting in ea, I can help to build ea for you, i’m a software engineer,
or you can run my ea with me as a partner.

12

1 coin for every % point I earned today,

coins.jpg525×700 19.8 KB

1 Like
13

Nice stack but the OP was referring to long term success. Let’s see what the stack looks like in 6 months and then in a year. It is difficult to achieve long term success but calling it impossible is wrong. It takes a lot of time and dedication to get to a level where you can consistently make money over a long period. Even then it’s not going to be something for everybody. I know I could dump a huge amount of time into becoming an artist and I would never be anything other than a very average artist at best.

If the OP can look himself in the mirror and honestly say he made a proper go of treating this business professionally and it didn’t work out then he should walk away without a second thought and spend his time/money on something that gives him enjoyment. His assertions are wrong though and he’s looking to externalise the blame when really retail traders generally fail due to making bad decisions of various kinds and not learning from them. I know I was guilty of that when I started out and consistently made the same mistakes again and again. But once you work through that, dump all the fancy indicators and apply the brainbox to come up with a professional template then it becomes difficult but not impossible.