Hehehe I understand what you mean by wasting your time with some indicators.
I am a person of many layers and deal with multiple things at once in real life so in a way I am much more comfortable with noise. I like to be able to see everything together at once. :rolleyes: I focus Bollinger bands on mainly short-term trading so I only look at them when I am in a trading session so right now they are telling nothing! (it’s a public holiday today so am taking the day off)
One of my trades hit my take profit level today and the other is still floating at .893 and right now it looks like the price is at .896 so hopefully not too far away! Thinking I may shift my TP lower now……
I have only been actively trading for the past year – 3 months on demo and about 11 months on live. My background is mainly real estate and equity trading so forex is relatively new to me but since my degree is in Economics I have a very solid understanding of the fundamental analysis. Trying to find my place with technical analysis now to add another bow to my cap. I understand that you don’t get good at these things overnight….
H&S Formation showing on daily also the market is testing a broken down trend line. Its possible we might get a bounce here. 4H showing reversal candle formation(morning star).
I closed my short from .9108 for 94 pips. Looks like you just barely missed your target counterz, wise thinking with shifting your TP, I hope you actually did so.
For now, it looks like 5 waves down are nicely completed (down from .9329). But I am not convinced the downward leg from .9329 is finished, going on the thinking that a 4th wave pennant formation is unfolding.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retracement to at least .9086, maybe even .9179 (and both I think are top-notch in terms of coinciding with previous support/resistance points). Possibly even a three-wave move with a pause/slight retrace at .9086ish and then continuing onward to .9179ish before again moving downward to .8860, maybe even as low as .8800ish. If it is a pennant, right now it is unbalanced.
Of course if the price moves above .9329, as cadarkitek suggests then the pennant idea pretty much goes out the window. For now, I concur with a bounce of significance but not a bounce that reaches above .9329.
Are you suggesting, as it seems, there is a head and shoulders with neckline at .9330ish?
If so, I think H and S are supposed to be reversal patterns meaning they occur at the end of longer moves. The neckline opens downward at the top of moves or opens upwards at the bottom of moves, not open up at the top of moves. H and S don’t occur on their own with nothing to reverse from. I have fallen victim to believing in those types of H and S before before I eventually realized that it’s not really a true H and S.
Those are my opinions and experiences at least. IF this move does continue above and well beyond .9329, I personally wouldn’t give credit to an H and S.
I just went long at .9000 keeping in mind .9086 and .9179 as potential targets. Too bad that triangle break didn’t follow through quite as expected.
cardarkitek…Jamaica, eh. We might have to set up a little trader’s convention in the fall. Well, unless there is a hurricane season there at that time, maybe another time of year
I have maintained, rightly or wrongly that the current confusion in the market suggests a fourth wave triangle/pennant…
zeke put forth the following just recently, “I also think the break in the US equities/USD inverse correlation has people a little confused as to where to park cash when uncertain.”
counterz relays that his Elliott wave newsletter believes the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd wave was to have happened/should happen while cadarkitek posted a picture that projects today’s reversal to continue above .9405.
Just closed my long at .9000 for a 30 pip loss Not sure what is going on, nothing had me convinced of upward movement and that 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave down idea was looming in my mind.
yep I shifted it so all good got a good return. I was thinking with inflation data out today for us that the bounce might happen but as I see at the moment it looks like we are still headed south. very interesting…
Still analyising what I am going to do next… I had to do my day job today so didn’t have any time for watching. grrrrr… :mad:
I really don’t know, I tried using candlesticks a few years ago and they didn’t help me at the time.
I just wish I had clarity!
At a certain point tonight I started seeing a bunch of 1 and 2 waves and there seems to room for more downward movement, well tonight for me, I guess it is what evening for you there now. How’s the weather hot?
it’s been scorching lately… and the humidity is high as well… Luckily I am in air conditioning most of the time.
It’s early evening for me! (no wonder my tummy is rumbling)
Looking on my one hour chart I can see 3 points of resistance around the .907 mark. I think we will see the drop to down below .894 later tonight. (my time)
Oh wow, it’s been unseasonably warm here in Toronto but still cold/coldish. At least you’re comfortable. Lol, sounds like it’s time for some grub.
Do you mean .9070 or. 9007, sorry I am kind of exhausted and don’t really feel like trying to figure it out. I was actually in bed and saw your email on my “Touch”. Well post notification through email.
My thoughts, well. I had a short at .9070 and the move up was inexplicable to me so with fears of drastic moves upward I thought it was best to close up for 6 or 7 pip loss and head to bed I was sure there was going to be at least one more leg down but it was not to be.
Alright we’ll chat later. That’s what I thought you meant but as you wrote .907 I started wondering if you missed a 0 in there (considering you mentioned a 1 or 2 hour pullback). Maybe I out think myself, lol.
Oh yeah the .9080s are a big hot spot, if it goes up there I would expect it to go higher eventually…well in the shorter-term (few days). “Eventually”, technically that could be years from now, lol.
Anyways enjoy your meal, if you want offer up your thoughts before heading to bed, I wouldn’t mind reading them
One last thing…as you can see how tired I am, my short was at .8970, not .9070. At this point, my confidence in the retracement up has strengthened a bit. We’ll see when I get up. Okay so there were two things. Good evening!
I caught the downswing and part of the retracement. I set a short last night before bed with a TP at .893 and I see we hit it this morning.
I was sure that retracement would be stronger to be honest so I am a little surprised it turned back down so quickly. Maybe the 3rd or a 3rd or a 3rd is looking more solid?
Also, the morning roll-over for the carry trade has been weak as hell lately. Usually it’s scapable but not in the past week. Maybe that hot money is flowing out IN SPITE of us raising interest rates???
Wow pretty surprised to see there haven’t been any posts here since January!!! I had to bail out, I was getting frazzled by the market.
My focus is now on EUR/USD…LOOOONG. Head and Shoulders bottom reversal forming (neckline 1.37/1.38). Greek riots…extreme was hit, 1.25 psychological barrier. All the targets fit perfectly.
still going strong - got caught on the drop from .91 to .89 cents but recovered on the way down to .83 so am happy. Thank goodness for godd money management.
Well, unless there is a hurricane season there at that time, maybe another time of year 
Not sure what is going on, nothing had me convinced of upward movement and that 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave down idea was looming in my mind.
