Look back on my almost 1 year in Ethereum

I’ve now had all of my trading capital in crypto for 10 months now. Here are some factoids

  • I’ve been through two 50%+ market crashes
  • The worst single day crash I’ve been through was March 12, 2020. It was the largest in Ethereum’s history, dropping 60% in 24 hours.
  • The largest drawdown I have seen in my account was 40% (during the depths of the March 12th crash)
  • I am currently up about 150% from where I started last October
  • I primarily use candlestick trading to reduce my cost basis, which I have been able to reduce by about 30%
  • My cost basis started at about $180 and has since been reduced to about $120
  • I am desensitized to volatility
  • Nothing can hurt me

Dayum. That’s a really good cost basis there. I have friends who bought at the top top - $1100 levels :sweat_smile: You see it reaching $1k by end of 2020?

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I don’t think it will reach that level by the end of this year, but it would be nice see it in the $400-$600 range by year end. I am putting the bulk of my portfolio to work by being a liquidity provider on Balancer (an automated market maker protocol). That will generate good yield even if ETH ends up going sideways for the rest of the year.

This is what most people can’t stomach. Or… after it happens the first time, the fear it happening again. Crazy moves.

But congrats on your success!

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The ultimate badass statement of any trader! :sunglasses:

Congratulations and keep it up!


Thoughts on a pull back before the start of next week?

I tweeted about this pattern that was forming. It’s since broke out. Big question is if it will continue on to the target or not, but either way this gives some good risk/reward guidelines.

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Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t providing liquidity on balancer a little risky?
My understanding of these constant product market makers is that if ETH price price goes down OR up you will suffer impermanent loss and are making the bet that the yield will be enough to cover those losses.

Congrats on your returns by the way!

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Looks like $400 even closer than you’d predicted! :rocket:

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Impermanent loss isn’t a real loss, it is a loss of opportunity, of what “could have been” if you had just held the assets in your wallet. The reason is because Balancer will automatically reduce the quantity of the asset that is increasing in price to maintain balance, whereas if it is in your wallet and you held the asset that is increasing just becomes a larger % of your wallet. For example if you provided liquidity to the LEND/WETH pool and LEND outperforms ETH by 100% you would make around 75% gains on Balancer and 100% if you just held it in your wallet. The impermanent loss is 25%, or the difference between the two scenarios. Of course you wouldn’t have lost 25%, but you just would have made 75% rather than 100%. Most people providing liquidity to balancer are looking for steady yield, not to speculate and maximize gains on spot price.

One of the only actual risks of loss would be contract risk where some sort of bug is exploited and funds are drained. Of all of the AMM’s, Balancer is one of the most trusted and their smart contracts are heavily audited, so they are my preferred AMM compared to the others.

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It did end up blowing past 400. It hit as high as 415 before tumbling back a little bit. I think it would be healthy for the long term trend if price went sideways for a few weeks and started building some support.

Hello Friend, I use my ETH in Compound and Youhodler. Do you trust or prefer Balancer ?

Yes, I prefer Balancer over the other AMM’s like Curve and Uniswap.

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I wasn’t aware of Balancer, thanks! I will need to look into it as I have just been hodling my ETH…

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I agree. Are you changing your end of the year price projection? :open_mouth:

I don’t remember having an end of year price projection. What was it?

High five to your success mate!

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Oops it wasn’t a price projection my bad. It was more “it would be nice.” You mentioned a high of $600 by year’s end! Will you keep that 400-600 range? :slight_smile:

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Hi, I just re-read your thread here after seeing what Ethereum did last night. It may be healthy, but since I Fomo’d in at $325, I am happy either way. It can consolidate for ages, or just shoot to $1,500 tomorrow. I didn’t have any three weeks ago, so I am “feeling lucky”. Well done on the psychology. So far the only part of my Crypto plan that is lacking is my approach to massive market correction. As a partial solution, I decided to sell one quarter of any Crypto investment that has doubled. I expected to only do that once or twice per year, but since May I have done it twice. First with ADA, and more recently with LINK. Loving the volatility, but dreading an 80% correction!

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@Mondeoman The volatility can be brutal! It’s been nice that we haven’t seen much volatility since the epic March 12th crash. That was painful. I am up almost 1,000% since the March 12th bottom so I am glad I stuck it out. I have since expanded my portfolio to some bigger DeFi plays. My largest holding is now NXM, which is the token for Nexus Mutual (provides smart contract insurance) and YFI (find Andre Cronje and yearn.finance on Twitter). I am building up some other positions as well. I will post more about some of that here as time goes on.

Great job on the ADA and LINK trades! Those two have been on an absolute tear for the past 6 months.