Hi guys, ! Below is a 4H screengrab of my NZD/JPY short trade.I entered at the red dot. It recently missed out on my TP by a few damn pips and now seems to be on the way back up. At first i was thinking it’s fine it’s just correcting/ adjusting, but now price action is just keeps going further up and eventually i’ll be back to square one.
Below is a wider time frame showing a larger 2 year downtrend which gives me a thought to leave the trade in simply because i’m in a relatively good spot on a 2 year downtrend.
I don’t know whether to get out now with a frustrating small profit, and potentially watch it go back down and lose out on big profits (been there, very annoying), or wait to see if this is still just a small rebound in the downtrend (Let your profits run mentality), i cannot seem to find any recent news on these economies so would appreciate pointers from the community!
Definitely NOT a seasoned trader lol but that has happened to me several times and I’ve tried anywhere from changing the stop loss so that it’s breakeven in case I am wrong, leaving the trade open and wait until it turns again (I’ve had a bunch of successes from this but you have to be patient, I had one trade I left open for like 2 months lol do not recommend but hey ended green), and finally, panic-closing at a loss.
The advice I’ve gotten here many times is to know why you even entered and to hold on to that rationale/system that you have in place for entering that trade. Can’t say I always follow but I try lol
well I consider myself an intraday trader , so I would have been closed out after like 30 pips. There was nothing really wrong with your trade. You just held out out too long in my opinion
Yeah it just fell short of my TP, but now i’m not sure whether to let it run or take my (very) small profits now.
When you zoom out we are in a good position for a long term downtrend but it would mean a potentially long trade and i may even be sitting in the red until it comes back. but it could turn around now and there’s nothing to worry about. I just don’t know what to do.
I considered that, but then thought the japanese economy is much more at risk than New Zealand right? japan and china are so closely linked, even trade business would be affected between the 2 whereas new Zealand is an island much further away so i think Japan would be more at risk?
If you are following a trade plan you should not be confused on whether to TP or not. If you are a Technical trader you should test if your system can make you profit in worst news scenario. When you know your system and your system know you, this little confusion will be eliminated.
Screenshot by Lightshot that s a lot of weakness for a daily chart, everytime it tried to push upwards on sign volume the reaction was bearish, it gapped down, broke daily trendline, now usually these gaps fill, not all the time but most. plus there u have the 200 and the 50 ema, also and the fib, previous support that might act as resist now etc. also gaps tend to act as suppoort or resist. anyways, i m bearish 2, but i can t understand why u didn t took profit. what i mean by that is… ur not the only 1 who trades with fixed tp. especially if it s just few pips, take the damn profits dude. i get the whoe RR thingie, but are u willin to see a trade go and stops u out after missin ur tp for a few pips? atleast take something, bank half and move stop to breakeven, so whatver happens u got something out. imho, a little dicresion is advised, what if market changes behaviour? am i gonna take a loss if i see wakness comin in and signs that it s not gonna reach even a RR of 1 to 1, cos my system says so? take whatever u can get dude, and if u see it s not movin ur way and just sitting there, get out. there are other trades, and usually the good1 s go straight into profit. if i don t lose money and i m at BE in a week i call that a win, cos maybe the market it s just insane, volume spikes everywhere, buyers and sellers are mixed(balance) price just sits around. u don t wanna be havin strict rules in times like that. just my opinion anyways. cheers
sorry i couldn t resist. here s another 2 cents. trust the chart. i know it s tough when u hear on utube or tv, or cnbc, corona virus will wipe us all out, asian shares to fall of a cliff, jpy is no longer a safe heaven etc etc… heard that gold should reach 50k an ounce by the end of 2020 c mon… these are exactly the times when hefty people with big pokets start looking to buy, when every1 is selling or viceversa. when it feels like it s gonna colapse, that s when suddenly finds support or resistance again, only my opinion, trust the chart, news will come and go, but the main direction that s been established always tends to play out.
@1odi The reason i didn’t take the profit is because if you look at the 1h chart, you’ll see in it’s decline a number of pullbacks and corrections, i could have taken profit at any of those times of reversal movement but it was just that, a pullback or a correction, the price reached literally 10 pips away and i almost did but thought “don’t shortchange yourself” and “let your profits run” and all those things the experienced traders say. the price stopped just a tad short. I work a fulltime job so cannot check every 30 mins to see what’s happening. by the time i saw this might not just be a small pullback i felt like pulling out then was pointless since i’ve made barely nothing. It’s just always hard to know. sometimes i do pull out early, and then it keeps going to where my tp was and i wish i’d not have got psyched out by the movement.
I’m considering opening a new bearish position with the smallest size possible, if the price falls again, i’ll increase position size, if not, i’ll lose very very small amount.
@Regan64
sometimes the price will change just shy of trendline support/resistance. it appears to have done so here and those types of things are simply unpredictable.
i guess u don t use volume, cos if u would ve, it did warned u there was strenght coming in(buyers) of the lowest price. but i understand ur pont of view. this happens often, then if u don t have time to watch it, let it run, unless ur setup gets invalidated, let it run.■■■■ happens, as long as u don t let a green trade to turn into a losing 1, u did great in my book.
cheers
now, why would price suddenly stop going down, and push up? there has to be some buying at that lvl… when price goes down on low vol that s a good sign to stay in, when price suddenly hits high volume but isn t able to go lower, that s a sign buyers are stepping in. maybe u could use this to take atleast partial profits and move stop at BE.)ofc if u have time to watch it).
these are exactly the times when hefty people with big pokets start looking to buy, when every1 is selling or viceversa. when it feels like it s gonna colapse, that s when suddenly finds support or resistance