Luck or skill?

Dear traders,

I’ve been looking into trading since the beginning of year but still in the process of creating a profitable strategy, in the meantime I’ve been researching technical tools and trying to understand how the trading industry operates, however this thread is not about me. I really like to hear your views about a friend of mine called Michael who is a trader.

Here is the key points about Michael’s trading style

  1. Michael practised on demo account for 3 months (Jan-March)
  2. Opened a real account end of march with a deposit of £8,000 (11,207euros)
  3. doesn’t use technical or fundamental analysis (didn’t even know candlesticks existed)
  4. He takes trades purely on gut feeling, doesn’t use stop loss or take profit
  5. He still doesn’t know till now that you can go short with trades, he only goes long
  6. Only trades commodities and indices as he believes that the profit margin in forex is not worth it. he keeps trades open from 1hr to up to 3-4 days
  7. Michael Is only 18. His made over 150 trades, only made a loss once
  8. He has a quick look on the 1hr chart, 4hr and daily chart and goes long if he believes it will go up
    

Michaels balance as from todays date is…….[B] £99,000. 140,000euros[/B]. from just 8 months of trading…

To be honest I am totally confused how Michael is making profits…

would appreciate your views

Blah blah blah… forget it… you are wasting your time. Develop your own system, starting from zero.

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Never get yourself affected by those theory or you’ll get yourself filled with greed. In fact, skill is the most important thing in forex trading. And so, luck is not avoidable but you can’t depend on it too much.

Thanks for all your views & opinions guys…

Skill is really important if it is not available you can not be a good trader. we can not be lucky trader if had no knowledge and practice of trader. we can not depend just on luck without experience and skill of trading .I do not think luck is vital if you had skill.

Does Michael have a Myfxbook link?

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the point that you fail to see that he has a system, otherwise he would not been able to have over 100 successful trades. if he did’nt have a profitable system he how could he be soo successful? reason I share this story is to understand how he become successful and continues to increase his trading account

Reading your first post you say he doesn’t understand various aspects of trading and goes with his gut. Thats not a system, its pinning a tail on a donkey blindfolded.
I think your friend might be kidding you, thats why I asked for a myfxbook link.

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unfortunately he doesn’t have a myfxbook account. he is only 18 and doesn’t have no interest about forums or any other online source or website. The way he takes it is, that he is successful and that’s what matters

I’ve personally seen his real account and can confirm that its true, weather you believe me or not is entirely your choice but to be frank I wouldn’t waste my time here if this was all a myth.

like I said before i’m just finding it very strange that people on this site go so deep into technical analysis or fundamentals and still are unsuccessful or blow out there account within a few months where as this guy makes it look so easy.

I must say I do feel greed even now but I manage to control my feelings and remain on my demo account :slight_smile:

I have more information regards Michael’s trading strategy, I’m starting to slowly build a picture regards is trading strategy which I will share with you guys soon…

Admittedly, you’ve toned it down [I]marginally[/I] from the usual way these are presented in trading forums: it’s often “My friend has made 300 trades without yet having a loser at all”.

I was actually expecting a couple of “I’ve found out more” and/or “I’ll post more details soon” posts, together (eventually) with details of where people can learn more information, and/or how to contact you privately for further details.

It’s a regularly recurring “meme”, in trading forums.

Ah, that’s a bit more like it. Got to build interest, first? :wink:

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To be honest with you I’m not an attention seeker or a guy who gets satisfaction from building interest to my threads, actually I prefer less interest as its minimum headache lol. At the end of the day I don’t get paid for writing up michaels trading history lol. everyone including you always have the option to ignore this thread. plus I don’t want people to message me privately as I can’t offer anything NEW as I’m only new to the trading world lol. my predicament or objective is to identify from experience traders how Michael is so successful without really trying, not knowing technical analysis . He must apply some sort of strategy as no one can be lucky enough to turn 8K into 140K. kindest regards

Michael increased his account by some 46% in 8 months with a win rate on 150 wins to 1 loss, all on buys on commodities, a falling market (the CRB decreased from early May until the end of August by slightly over 20%) and indices.

So why the confusion - why come here to learn as you posted earlier, why not just keep it simple and go ask your friend and learn from him?

Btw, he got a brilliant rate for his £8000.00, at the end of March best I could get was 1.345 (10,760 Euro), so well done to Michael, brilliant work all round :).

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Yeap, that’s what I’ll be doing! I will explore his strategy and practice on demo account…

Good. Use demo account as far as you can. You can use someone’s strategy to see if it fits to you too.

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Do not blindly believe the statistics shown by other traders, instead plan your trading ways by which you would make realistic gains which satisfies you in all manner. Thus, it is important to fine tune our skills and start reaching our target.