Both the guppy and G-Swissy are setting up on the 15’ and looking very tired … but are they finished yet??
What do you think?
PS I don’t think the guppy is ‘finished’ by any means, at this point she looks good for 217 and beyond … but I do think a major retracement is necessary first, the question is … does she agree?? 
Hmmm… Even though it is not a usd major, both of those pairs move up with usd strength. I think it is time for some recovery on usd and I don’t want to take shorts right now. I am only looking for longs. So I will wait until some good carry longs become available. So far this week I have only made a few scalp trades. There is nothing I want to trade at the time.
So … that means you wait until these charts reverse and price is below the 50 & 200 instead of above? But doesn’t that mean price will have to come down to 200 ema and well beyond to do the setup … so why not short them on the way down? Is it because probability is not that good, i.e. they could bounce before the retracement is complete?
Ok. I changed my mind and put my first short on guppy.:D:eek:
Present account performance: +46.6%
[B]Dollar Advances to Four-Week High on Paulson, Plosser Comments
By Kim-Mai Cutler and Kosuke Goto[/B]
July 23 (Bloomberg) – The dollar rose to a four-week high against the yen after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson voiced support for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president said interest rates should be raised.
The greenback also climbed to a near two-week high versus the euro after Paulson said he expects Congress to approve a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies. The yen fell to a record low against the euro as stocks climbed, encouraging investors to add to holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
The view that the worst of the uncertainty and bad news may be behind us has reinvigorated risk appetite,'' said Derek Halpenny, head of currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi.We’re on the last leg of the dollar bear market.’’
The dollar rose to 107.86 yen as of 6:37 a.m. in New York, from 107.33 yesterday, and traded at 107.90, the highest since June 26. It also appreciated to $1.5718 per euro, from $1.5783 yesterday, before trading at $1.5733. The euro may peak at about $1.62 before falling to $1.48 in a year, Halpenny said.
The yen fell to a record low of 169.96 yen per euro, from 169.43 yesterday, after the MSCI World Index rallied 0.4 percent on speculation bank earnings will withstand tighter credit markets. It was at 169.63 per euro later.
Calmer Markets
With the markets calming down, shown by the rally in stocks, the yen is becoming particularly weak among major currencies,'' said Shigetake Nakayama, a manager on the proprietary-trading desk in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest financial group.With rates still low, there is no reason to buy the yen.’’
The yen may fall to 108 per dollar today, Nakayama said.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.1 percent to 6.8298 versus the dollar. China will slow the yuan’s gains to about 3 percent in the second half of the year to help exporters weather a decline in global demand and rising costs, said Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
The dollar’s gains against the yen may accelerate after the U.S. currency closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 8, said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital Inc. in Tokyo.
``This is why the markets are getting more and more bullish on the dollar,’’ said Umemoto, who works for a unit of the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. The dollar may rise to 110 yen in three months, Umemoto forecast.
Paulson Speech
The U.S. currency strengthened yesterday as Paulson said in a speech in New York he’s confident that lawmakers will pass a bill to provide funding for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of U.S. mortgage financing. He reiterated that a strong dollar is ``really very important.’’
This goes well beyond the two institutions -- Fannie and Freddie,'' Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television after his speech.It has to do with investors in the United States and investors all over the world.’’
The dollar extended its gains as industrial orders in the euro region fell more than twice as much as forecast in May. Orders dropped 3.5 percent from April, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today, compared with the 1.3 percent predicted by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The U.S. currency touched a record low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15 as traders speculated the two companies, which own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in outstanding U.S. home loans, would be forced to seek a bailout.
Overseas Purchases
Overseas investors’ net purchases of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other so-called agency debt, were $24.2 billion in May the Treasury Department said on July 16. That compares with the $67 billion foreign investors spent on U.S. stocks, notes and bonds that month, Treasury data show.
``Paulson is trying to prevent further declines in dollar assets given that foreign investors’ purchases of agency bonds are one source of funding for the U.S. current-account deficit,’’ Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader, wrote today in a research note.
The current account is the broadest measure of trade. An economy with a deficit relies on overseas investment to make up for its own savings shortfall.
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in a speech yesterday in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later.’’ He argued against cuts in two Fed decisions this year.
Rate Bets
Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday a 55 percent chance the Fed will increase its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, up from 24 percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers next meet Aug. 5.
The U.S. two-year Treasury note yielded 183 basis points less than the comparable-maturity German bund, the narrowest difference since July 11.
Gains in the dollar may be limited as the Fed releases its so-called beige book report, a survey of regional economic performance, at 2 p.m. today in Washington. Economic growth was ``generally weak’’ in April and May as consumer spending slowed, the Fed said in its June 11 report.
The beige book will hold a bearish tone on the economy while mentioning rising inflationary pressure,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.We don’t expect any rate hike by the Fed this year. With the markets still pricing a rate hike, this will push down the dollar’’ to 103 yen by year-end, he said.
Hope I didn’t talk you into it :D:D
I am short too, but watching carefully … she has got to retrace but it may be like pushing down a loaded spring…
No, after watching for a while and being wishy washy, I took it on my own. Look at the candles on the 15m. They are making pretty designs.
I forgot today was triple interest Wednesday.:mad: I paid a lot of tax to Elija’s bridge troll today.
Well … you’re welcome. I assume you are counting piles of money by now … I am not since i chickened out last night and sold my shorts at a loss 
Patience is a virtue I am still struggling to learn … hopefully before my money runs out
I only made a little bit. I scalped my g/j and decided that u/j would be a better short. Well after 15 hours I made a whole 8 pips on u/j and guppy sank. My guppy scalps were more than my u/j overnight.
:eek:
In that case we can jump out our basement windows together :D:D
Are you getting long here? I got TMTH as usual … but everytime she makes one of these runs, I learn a little more about her ways. I am trying to figure out a smart way of doing this.
I pm’d Andrew about this idea, did not want to put it in E’s thread due to distraction … but what about … when she takes off in one direction or another & for example you think she is moving down so you want to start accumulating long positions … why not take one short position for every 2 long? Get them in groups of 3’s … one short, 2 long, then if you are right and she keeps dropping … after 50 pips (or 65?) another one short and 2 long, and so on to the limit of what you can afford safely. But since you are 1/3 hedged you can afford a bit more I think…
When you are pretty sure she is finally turning, you cash in the shorts starting with the first one (the most profitable).
I was thinking of shorting the GC for every 2 GY longs … but they do not always move in sync. If you do 1 for 1, you could get whipsawed … but if you put the bias in favor of the direction you think she will ultimately go, you provide a slight hedge & if lucky, some extra pips.
What do you think?
As I said to Andrew, this would not apply to other pairs, I have no problem spotting their setups and trading them … but as you saw with the U-J last night it could take 3 lifetimes to make any real money Once smitten by the guppy, there is no turning back … just gotta figure out how to read her.
Hmmm… That is similar to an idea of putting a limit short at a max drawdown on longs.
Basically you don’t make money off the limit short you just pay the spread tax to protect your positions and close it at b/e. If the short is triggered again, you pay the spread tax again.
I will have to research this more to see if it is even doable. The one thing I don’t like about it is the complication. I like to keep things simple.
Present account performance: +46.8%
Small gain from the last update.
I got bored and counted the number of r/t orders I made in the past 24 days and it is 133. That’s 5.54 per day.
I’m building longs on the guppy.
I just cashed out guppy longs.
Present account performance: +48.7%
I have no trades open. Let’s see what next week brings.
Hey M2P, when did you start measuring from?
Since 28 May. That is when I started this account. I posted somewhere else 01 Jun, but I was wrong. I had to go back and look up that it was 28 May.
My account performance is for this account only. I do not count my live micro account because I shut it down and opened this one. I doubled my micro. But it was only chump change.
I decided to change the name of this strategy to:
“The Lucre Producer”
Tell me what you guys think.