I closed all my guppy’s at slightly above break even. If I would have caught that dip I would have been well into profit.
Oh well. That’s the way it goes sometimes.
I am still down on e/j waiting for another dip or surge up for profits.
I have a clear board now and no open trades. Somehow I made money today. I am up .7% .
I had some good signals. I just blew it by not being around to manage them at the best times.
Just took first short on g/c. I may be in early but the past chop on the pair may continue. Use good mm and manage well if you took this trade because she has plenty of room to breath if the chop range is over.
I just took profit on three g/c shorts. Since the up trend is early, I don’t want to push my luck. If we get a nice up bounce off the 50, I will short again. I have a clear board right now and no trades. Let’s see what the London brings.
E-J is the only pair I see now that looks like it is setting up.
I am trying something a bit different, will let you know how it plays out.
I purchase 2 positions at a time & set an immediate TP on one of them to +20 pips. If price goes against me, I keep doing that at 25 pip intervals (50 for the guppy). This way as price moves forward there will be little scalps along the way.
I’ll may set up a demo acct just for this to see how it works in practice.
I’m short guppy.:eek::eek:
I added another 2.2% to my account. I hope this guppy short doesn’t rob it. She is a hard one to short.
Good Grief! This is not the time to short her … in fact after the last 2 days I am convinced there is NO time to short her.
She ignores s/r levels, ignores news & fundies, pays no attention to technical indicators, including & maybe especially Elliott waves. She also does not work that well with your strategy … she is way too unpredictable.
I am now convinced the ONLY way to play her is to buy the dips in groups of 3-5 positions each time, take 10-100 pip profits as she bounces, try to let one ride.
Doiing that in my demo acct and ONLY that, I have turned $500k into $811k in under 6 weeks.
I am convinced now that using this strategy properly you can take $10k trade a micro account, buying 5 positions each time & double the account every 2-3 months. That may be conservative.
Working on a spreadsheet now that will show just what funding is needed in relation to # positions and drawdown.
I am short the Eur/Jpy and the U-J … I go long the G-Y on every dip now and collect my 20 pips when she bounces up again.
She’s on a tear and who knows where she will stop, but at the moment in bouncey territory, so caution is needed.
But don’t short her!!!
I’m trying to tame a wild mustang.
True. There has been two times I have realized a loss with my strat… both times have been short guppy.
I’m short the E-J and U-J (and deep under) because I know that they at least WILL adhere to tech indicators and eventually pull back enough so I can get out at b/e or a bit better. Not sure what is going on with the yen, but it seems to be collapsing.
G-Y on the other hand could do anything … in this case she could go to 230 without feeling tired.
I closed all short guppy’s with a small profit. I am not going to hold these things til the 200 cross because I hate shorting this pair lately and I shouldn’t have done it to begin with.
Present account performance: +44.6%
My week may be over. There are no trades to find.
Maybe one of you guys will find an exotic cross with a setup for me.
I was busy and took no trades today. I am looking maybe to short some pairs again Sunday. The only problem is they are negative carry shorts on good carry crosses. We shall see Sunday.
Well I have been looking to do more live performances and got offered an investment in a production of a Girls Gone Wild video at one of my venues in Houston.
I agreed because it looks like a money maker. The only problem is I won’t attend to make sure the $ is in order. My wife won’t go for that at all. I can only explain so much off as business and some I can’t. That will be definately one of them that I can’t.
I guess I will have to send my partner down there to control the show and $. He is a big intimidating guy, so that shouldn’t be a problem.
Ok… There’s my weekend off forex tangent.
And what do you do in these live performances? Sing? Dance? Strip?
All of the above?? 
Guppy lookin’ good for next week … in my main account I will be trading only guppy, only longs because my demo acct has almost doubled in 7 weeks and ya just can’t beat that!
However I will be trading this strategy in my Zulu account, (I am a provider for Zulu) because if setups are chosen carefully there is very limited dd, which is how I prefer to trade that account, I also go for frequent small profits.
Mike, you could be an awesome Zulu provider too, and it is some nice extra money… go to my site, traderstar.com and click the link in red at left that says “Experienced 4x Traders…etc” it will explain how it works.
None of the above. I am not a performer. I am a promoter. I finance the budget and either make money or lose money depending on several factors.
I will take a look at Zulu. Thanks.
Hi all,
This seems a very interesting approach, which seems to produce results when the conditions are right.
However have you found a way to avoid taking trades like 26 Feb 08, 22:30 Long (GMT+1) which travels down approx 920 pips before climbing back 170 pips to the 200ma. Or 23 Apr 08, 20:00 Short which climbs 550 pips before returning 125 pips. Both trades on GBPCHF 15min. The trades in between don’t seem to generate enough pips to cover the profit and eventually the account goes BANG!!
Have I missed something?
Thanks
Very good point. I went back and did a simulation on the first example you gave and if taken that trade blind by me I would have lost around -38% of account size. Now I will give you two reasons I would not have taken it. One, fundamentals. During November through February I think only a fool would hold positive carry trades or positive usd or correlated pairs. Everyone was making a killing shorting usd and that seemed to be the only system at play by traders world wide. The feds were slashing and slashing just to keep the $hi from hitting the fan. Remember this system is discretionary. At the time tech was dead and fundamentals was king. The second reason I would not have taken it was volatility. If you look there were no up or downs. No bumps back or crosses off of the 50 ema. Just one direction strong like a train. Setups like that scare me and I go look for one that shows more volatility and a sense of not being single track minded.
With all that said, I know that my strategy is not perfect. Maybe we could incorporate a second stop system at a maximum draw down allowed.
I took a short on e/j
[B]Some BOJ Members Say Should Look at Economic Risk
By Mayumi Otsuma [/B]
July 18 (Bloomberg) – The Bank of Japan should focus more on the risk that economic growth will slow rather than the risk that inflation will accelerate, a few of its members said, meeting minutes show.
``A few members said that in the current situation of Japan’s economy, unlike in the case of some economies with vigorous demand and strong upward pressure on wages, the bank should focus more on downside risks to economic growth than on upside risks to inflation,’’ the minutes of the June 12-13 meeting released showed today in Tokyo.
The central bank this week lowered its economic growth forecast, raised its inflation estimate and said the economy is slowing further as higher commodity prices hurt the expansion. The bank has kept its key interest rate at 0.5 percent since February 2007 and no change is expected this year, according to 31 of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week.
BOJ policy makers appear to have no bias for interest rate policy for the time being,'' said Izuru Kato, chief market economist at Totan Research Institute in Tokyo.It’s possible for the bank to raise rates late next year if the U.S. economy improves, but the outlook is very uncertain.’’
One board member indicated their concern about inflation, saying that the central bank should ``take a gradual and preemptive approach to forestall an increase in inflation expectations’’ once it becomes confident that the economy will follow a sustainable growth path.
A few members said that the central bank should judge the evolution of consumer prices over the long term rather than just over a short period of time.
Distorting Subsidies
Some of the members said they hadn’t seen any signs of secondary inflation, or the effects of higher fuel and commodity prices spreading to other goods and services in Japan.
Global inflation may be rising faster than the pace of interest-rate increases, a few members said.
``Some members expressed the view that the market mechanism had been distorted by measures taken by emerging economies such as provision of subsidies to control energy and crop prices,’’ according to the minutes.
In April, the central bank shelved a policy calling for higher borrowing costs. The rate is the lowest among major economies.
The world’s second-largest economy will grow 1.2 percent in the year ending March 31, slower than the 1.5 percent forecast on April 30, the central bank predicted on July 15. Consumer prices excluding fresh food will climb 1.8 percent, more than the 1.1 percent projected three months ago, it said.
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on the same day that rising materials prices are squeezing profits and hurting business investment while costlier gasoline and food are eroding household incomes and discouraging consumption.
Core price gains will gradually moderate after accelerating in coming months and the country’s economy isn’t experiencing stagflation, Shirakawa said.
I closed my e/j short and hoping some good cary pairs will go on discount soon.