Macfibo system

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Sufian Said, Just going thorough your “Mistakes I have made as a Trader” (Good night, Posterous ).

I wish I can overcome these mistakes!!! I belong to that phase where you were 5 years ago…

I would love to share with you the stupid, the silly, the ridicolous, the deadly, the ‘what-the-f**k’ trading mistakes I’ve made since I started trading 5 years ago! Imagine all the mistakes you could think off… high chance I’ve done all of that.

Why am I sharing this to you? Because I want you to skip this ‘phase’ in your learning curve mastering the monstrous world of Forex, Stocks, Commodity etc markets. What phase am I talking about here? The phase where you actually lost a whole lot of money because you thought after making 1000% returns in your demo account, you think you were ready! The phase where 90% of retail traders decides to quit and thought the financial market is there to get you. The phase where you don’t realise that the real enemy in your unsuccessful trading career is yourself.

The following are just few of the mistakes I did and followed up what I should have done EARLIER :

  • Risking my account up to 10% - 2% risk is the maximum
  • No money management plan and business plan - HAVE your business plan sort out before even thinking trading and spend A LOT OF TIME planning your money management strategy!

-Dreaming the profit I will make in the current open trade - Prepare if the trade turn into a loss BEFORE you open the trade. Risk/Reward managemet

  • I prayed and hoped my losing position will atleast breakeven - Stick to your exit plan, win or lose
  • I was trigger happy. Trade 10-15 times a day - Don’t be reckless and patient. Spend more time on planning one or two trades a day and just trade what you have planned.
  • I read too many books on Technical Analysis - My trading fortune turned once I read MORE on psychological element on trading and Money Management.
  • Wasted my time and money in believing there is a Holy Grail - Accept there is no Holy Grail system, the only Holy Grail there is yourself.
  • Backtest system to see how profitable your system is - Backtest the system thoroughly in various market conditions (trending and ranging), test how many losses it could give you and how big it will becompare it with the wins. If wins (by frequency and size) outweighs the losses by 3:1 ratio, then your system is good to go!
  • No planning - Plan your trades
  • Cut your profits short, Ride your Losses (don’t tell me you don’t know what I am talking about here - Ride your profits, Cut your losses
  • No trading diary - Have a trading diary!!
  • Forex market will make you rich tomorrow - No it doesn’t! The moment you think that, you will never see your account grow… I promise you that!! Forex market, like any other business, needs planning, needs discpline, needs strategy and above all needs PATIENCE. You must plan to have a successful trading career for the rest of your life… meaning slow but steady curve. Do not dream to be rich in the next 12-24 months. It will destroy your account. I once made up to 10k in only 3 months once but lost all of it in 3 hours…because I believe -> Forex Market Will Make Me Rich Tomorrow… and because of this mentality… I made all the mistakes I have listed above!

“Mistakes I have made as a Trader” by Sufian Said…

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Woohoo, my first Macfibo trade a nice and profitable one, exactly like you took it sufiansaid! :slight_smile:

It was close there with the news release, but I stuck to the rules and came out the winner. Being able to handle that kind of pressure and not reacting to it emotionally makes or breaks a trade…

Much appreciated!

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hello Sufian,

you said chat room? are u there on any chat room kindly fwd the link so i can join…
thanks in advance

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If I’m learning one thing from this thread, it is discipline. Discipline was sorely lacking in my previous trading and I had cleaned out my account of substantial funds twice previously.

Since coming here, and thanks to Sufian and this system, I have kept a positive account balance for the longest time I can remember, and am currently in profit. Only a small amount, but it is profit.

I have set a daily target of +20 pips. I’m just short of that today (by 0.10 of a pip) so, you know what? That’s me done for the day. We need to celebrate if we even hit 80% of our goal, so I’m happy with that.

Until tomorrow!

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USD JPY Long and EU Short both went profitable, I see Long signal on EU so I m going long for it

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vessel18, let me tell you buddy, I’ve been there as well.

It’s once you just start to RELAX about trading, calm down and actually just trade properly that things start to go better. Like you said, you’d rather take the 20 pips and be safe than to risk your entire account (I’m very guilty of totally blowing up my account twice as well).

Keep at it, you’re doing good! :slight_smile:

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How about this setup?

eur jpy 4h.jpg700×525 36.3 KB

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If the yellow line is 161% extension, I personally wouldn’t. As you can see, the target is above the highest point in the whole graph - a clear, strong resistance area. I’d then aim for that level which should coincide with 127% extension as well… just my two cents :wink:

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I agree with you, thats why Ive set my Take Profit 20 Pips below the strong resistance. Maybe still a bit to close to the resistance?!

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  • for Ramirez EURJPY setup:

111.2 can surely play as R but imho could also be broken due to past-week trend behaviour and there can also be a elliot wave pattern ending.

Considering this and MACFIBO indications, I’d stick with 161.8 TP, but waiting for bounce on 111.2 level, before eventually going up.

What you guys say about this?

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Gold

gold.jpg700×443 64.6 KB

:d

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@cryagony, nice set up, it`s a pity that I missed it :slight_smile:

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I haven’t looked at my chart but based on the one that you posted, I believe Gold had moved beyond 1.618 already. Your PT A should be at the CLOSED price at one candle earlier than your PT A. :smiley: Thank you for sharing.

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MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 27/3/2012

After the sell trade, I was waiting around 8pm Singapore Time to see what Fed Chairman, Bernanke has to say… about well, anything about the economy etc. EURUSD moved up sharply, led by Bernanke’s comments about “…the Fed may continue its easy monetary policy if the jobs market continues to show signs of weakness”.

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I know not much about fundamentals (getting there) but that was considered/intepreted as ‘Dovish Comments’, hence huge selling on the dollar happened…as the strong selling happened… yep! Macfibo happen! Now, I entered this trade hugely based on the obvious and easily-interpreted dovish comments by Bernanke, EU had to go up (any base pair that against the Dollar has to go up and any US base pair against other currency has to go down)!

For those who thinks news candle and analysing daily range just plain waste of time, please ignore and skip the BOLD statement

Here’s the thing… I tp-ed at 127.2 instead of 161.8. Distance between 100.0 to 127.2 was around 30+ pips, with the current daily range trend of EU, I usually will tp at 127.2. I know I did not explain this in the PDF. This is quite advance version of Macfibo that involves Daily Range + News Candle analysis. I will explain this in future documents. But any questions regarding this, please do ask… So yeah, I entered the Buy trade and TP-ed it at 127.2, harvesting 30 pips.

Those who entered the buy trade, you should be enjoying a nice 40+ pips ride, and price yet to hit 161.8… there is a potential 70+ pips for this macfibo activation. Up to you how you would manage your trade. Let 5ema and 8sma exit your trade, or stick to your SL at 38.2. But If I may, I suggest you just move your SL to atleast Breakeven (you can move your SL to 127.2, protect the pips… its around average pips you would harvest in any Macfibo trade anyway)… since we are entering Asian Session and US market has closed, anything can happen.

Happy Trading!

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I am happy that I’ve helped in someway. May it long continue and you all progressed. There will be bumpy roads along your journey… so I hope you just keep a tunnel vision (on your objective) and continue to learn. :D. I am learning from you guys as much you are from me. So its a win-win thing.

Talk about ‘bumpy roads’… I read that you have blown up your accounts twice? I have blown up my account 5 times before… in my first 13 months trading. Figure that one out… hahahah! I’m lucky that I am stubborn… hahaha!

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Trust me… there are more… but it’s best unsaid… it is so embarassing. :D. You will overcome it I am sure of it. :D… unless you are a sadistic trader :smiley: joke. Mistakes are good as long as we learn from it and vow not to repeat it again.

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The correct fibonacci pullups.

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hi sufian a bit confused as to when we can take a position if the activating candle is long? previously on 22/3 u didnt take but yesterday you took. so how do we know when is a good time to enter?

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Macfibo With Average Daily Range

* Please ignore this post if you think analysing Average Daily Range is a waste of time. Using Macfibo as it is (as explained in the PDF) can be profitable. Analysis on other matters such as S/R Lines, Fundamentals, Average Daily Range is just an additional analysis tool to give more ‘filter’ to the organic nature of forex market *

Why the study of daily range matters? Basically, by knowing the average daily range from the past x days, you can project where price will likely to stop and reverse, how much more room can a price will move, to complement 100.0-1.618 range with the remaining ‘room’ for the price can stretch for the day.

I am going to explain this very simply with an example scenario.

Say today the average daily range is 130 pips for the past 2 months (40 trading days). Basically price today should move roughly between 110 to 140 pips. Now… say there is a Macfibo Buy… during the activation, price have already moved and stretched 63 pips so far. Then I draw the Macfibo pullups, the range 100.0-161.8 is say 36 pips. Knowing that price could move between 110-140 pips a day (average 130 pips), then there is a high probability price would complete the 161.8 because the whole Macfibo Buy (from PT B to 161.8) will total 63+36 = 99 pips, less than 130 pips.

Chart Examples

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A Sell activation projected the day (via Macfibo 161.8 level) will reach 100 pips, within the average daily range for EURUSD.

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A buy activation projected the day (via Macfibo 161.8 level) will reach 140 pips, within the average daily range for EURUSD.

This is not a 1+2=3 thing ofcourse. There are times, even price yet to exceed daily range, price decides to range 60-80 pips per day. Pair like EURUSD is constantly changing. In 2011 EU average daily range for the whole year is 160 pips!.. now so far this year… its been 130 pips… 30 pips is huge!

Non-technical factors such as fundamentals, politics, world events can “over-stretch” pair’s daily range as well… one example… last night. Bernanke’s dovish comments stretched EU up to 170 pips range… more than the last month (in most cases, when a day over-stretched it’s daily range/quote, the following day will usually range 50% (say day 1 ranged 180, day 2 will range 80-90 pips… interesting. Not ALL THE TIME, most times, today can be interesting).

You can add this info into your ‘ammunition’ or just ignore it. Just want to share what I know and use with considerable success. Thanks.

p/s : I’ve also studied on weekly range (H4) and monthly range (D1) to complement with Macfibo in the respective timeframes.
Happy trading guys.

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hi sufian understand the max daily range principle. so what was the difference between the trade on the 22 march and last nite? both had news making the activation candle tall but u only enter on last nite trade and not on the 22 mar?

appreciate all your help to us newbies so far. tks! :slight_smile: