Macfibo system

[sufiansaid]

Hi Sufian just a couple of qestions regarding trades crossing session zones.

When a cross over occurs an hour or 2 before the asian session and price remains unchanged, is it safe to take once the asian session begins? Maybe waiting for the 1st candle of the asian session to close?

What would be last time in the London session to take a trade considering that the trade may run into the NY session?

That is a very very very good question Richhand. Thanks for the question.

If a signal occur even an hour before Asian open, you don’t take it. I understand there are times when price barely moved even when it enters Asian open, but still I strongly advice not to take it. Just wait for another signal. If a signal occur at the last hour of London open, though logically it will run through the US Session, you take it. For Fridays however, I will not enter any trades especially Secondary signals that is in the last 3-4 hours of London Open.

Why all this? Why can’t trade before Asian Open, why can’t trade after London Close, Why can’t trade at final hours of London Open?.. As I always say in tackling questions, it is all based on my experience and some statistical ‘evidence’ I’ve gathered after years trading.

Macfibo, like other trend-following systems, relies on trading range. Pre-asian market and post London market, based on what I’ve read and also based on my own logs/record… has the thinnest range compared to other sessions… that as one of the reason why I suggest not to trade Macfibo signals during the stated times. As to enter a trade that barely moved before Asian open inside Asian open, as in theory range will increase during this time, ugly reversals tend to happen as well… hence another reason why I advice not to trade any signals before Asian Open and after London close.

I hope my answers help.

[richhand]

Yes it does, very clearly, thanks again
Rich

[sufiansaid]

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 1/5/2012

There was a sell signal and it was a good one. I ignored the secondary signal earlier as it was Monday and it occurred during Asian Open. Good 17 pips harvested. I feel good. There is nothing else to report in this trade. It was pretty straightforward. As price hit 1.618 (went beyond up to 200.0), price reversed in which coincided with London close as well. Amazing stuff.

As I always like to do, let’s review Macfibo performance so far.

MACFIBO SYSTEM STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 1/5/2012)

Avg Win : 32.0
Avg Loss : 21.1
Net Pips : 1600 pips
Winning Percentage : 66.4%

What I really want to review now is how Macfibo performed in month-to-month basis. Has Macfibo harvest pips consistently? Has the system harvest less or more in the last four months? Well, I can tell you that Macfibo have been harvesting less pips compared how it started in January and February.

In January 2012, Macfibo System harvested an awesome 495 pips, in February it was even better as Macfibo harrvested 599 pips (thanks to that awesome long winning run). March 2012, pips harvesting began to shrink as Macfibo only able to harvest 338 pips. April 2012 recorded this years lowest pip harvest as yesterday’s successful trade was only April’s 168th pips.

With all this numbers, what does it mean? Well, obviously January and February were better months than March and April (duhh!! hit me with a rolled-up newspaper for stating the Obvious…). It depends on how you see it. It is whether you see the decreasing monthly pip harvest or the increasing total harvest so far this year (from 495 pips at the end of January 2012 to 1600 pips in end of April… more than 100% increase).

Markets have been choppy since the start of March, mainly due to the many many fundamental uncertainties in the US and Europe (debt crisis bla bla bla) and not to mention the dissapointing range of EURUSD. In January the range was 137 pips… the range for March and April is 110 and 100 pips respectively. I can tell you guys now… this is probably the ‘worst’ first quarter in terms of trading range based from my own logs. So ofcourse it effects the number of pips harvested, add that with choppy markets… March and April was a very difficult month for Macfibo.

Having said that… we still end April in a green… not in a red. For me, thats fantastic. For me personally, Macfibo so far still serve my objectives, getting positive pip harvest every week and keep my account stay from the red and slowly and steadily moving up…

Cheers.

[mario777]

Here is my original post in the thread sufian about the question

where did you get that 10SMA?? I havent read that on the PDF that we need 10SMA :15:

[sufiansaid]

where did you get that 10SMA?? I havent read that on the PDF that we need 10SMA :15:

Oh yea… Or was it a typo?

[mario777]

[B]MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 1/5/2012[/B]

There was a sell signal and it was a good one. I ignored the secondary signal earlier as it was Monday and it occurred during Asian Open. Good 17 pips harvested. I feel good. There is nothing else to report in this trade. It was pretty straightforward. As price hit 1.618 (went beyond up to 200.0), price reversed in which coincided with London close as well. Amazing stuff.

As I always like to do, let’s review Macfibo performance so far.

[B]MACFIBO SYSTEM STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 1/5/2012)[/B]

Avg Win : 32.0
Avg Loss : 21.1
Net Pips : 1600 pips
Winning Percentage : 66.4%

What I really want to review now is how Macfibo performed in month-to-month basis. Has Macfibo harvest pips consistently? Has the system harvest less or more in the last four months? Well, I can tell you that Macfibo have been harvesting less pips compared how it started in January and February.

In January 2012, Macfibo System harvested an awesome 495 pips, in February it was even better as Macfibo harrvested 599 pips (thanks to that awesome long winning run). March 2012, pips harvesting began to shrink as Macfibo only able to harvest 338 pips. April 2012 recorded this years lowest pip harvest as yesterday’s successful trade was only April’s 168th pips.

With all this numbers, what does it mean? Well, obviously January and February were better months than March and April (duhh!! hit me with a rolled-up newspaper for stating the Obvious…). It depends on how you see it. It is whether you see the decreasing monthly pip harvest or the increasing total harvest so far this year (from 495 pips at the end of January 2012 to 1600 pips in end of April… more than 100% increase).

Markets have been choppy since the start of March, mainly due to the many many fundamental uncertainties in the US and Europe (debt crisis bla bla bla) and not to mention the dissapointing range of EURUSD. In January the range was 137 pips… the range for March and April is 110 and 100 pips respectively. I can tell you guys now… this is probably the ‘worst’ first quarter in terms of trading range based from my own logs. So ofcourse it effects the number of pips harvested, add that with choppy markets… March and April was a very difficult month for Macfibo.

Having said that… we still end April in a green… not in a red. For me, thats fantastic. For me personally, Macfibo so far still serve my objectives, getting positive pip harvest every week and keep my account stay from the red and slowly and steadily moving up…

Cheers.

sufian, do you have stats for the past 2 years? since the line is going down, I hope in the next couple of months will not reach the zero level .:27:

[caliphtrading]

Hi caliphtrading,

How many pairs are you planning to test your trading parameters? Are you planning to forward test only? Or also backtest? I am very interested to know your updated logs on your backtest to be honest.

Bro sufian,

I plan to forward test only. The pairings that I am planning to trade are EUR/USD, GBD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/GBD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD and GBD/JPY. I will try to post all my trades here.

[sufiansaid]

sufian, do you have stats for the past 2 years? since the line is going down, I hope in the next couple of months will not reach the zero level .:27:

I do have the stats for the past 5 years. There are months in those years where the profit only hit barely 100 pips. Will Macfibo hit zero or below zero? How would I know? Did it happen in the past, it happened before but as I said, never went so bad it wiped 50% of my account.

[B]EDIT : But if you let me to say how I measure ‘trading success’ or ‘trading profitably’ is not calculated based on daily basis or even weekly basis… but in months or by term. If after 3 months, I’ve gained certain % of my account, then I will consider myself as ‘trading profitably’. If Macfibo manage to gained more than 50% of pips harvest since the start of the year (in which, in this case 459 pips to 1600 pips is more than 50%), then I will be reluctant to push the ‘abort’ button just yet. Every system will face ‘slow’ phases… Macfibo is no different.[/B]

Guys, this is where back testing comes very handy. You want to trade your own money so it is your responsibility to do your own homework and obtain as many information about the system (i am not just talking about Macfibo) like how it performed in the past during trending and non-trending markets etc etc etc…

Without sounding like an arrogant bastard (which I am not trying to be, I just don’t know other way to say it), between me and say 4-5 other new Macfibo traders, I have an absolute edge in trading Macfibo compared to the new traders, not because I am the creator of the system or I’ve traded the system for more than 3 years… but I have tested it and obtain all this numbers (stats) and information (what session is best, if it hits S/R what usually happen etc etc) ALL manually. Every test trade or forward paper trade, you will learn new things… when you learn, you log it so you can revise it during the off market (weekend). Backtesting gives me confidence and INFORMATION to trade Macfibo. If you all believe in this system, I strongly suggest you treat Manual Backtesting very seriously.

Again, will Macfibo will face “the end” this year (after experiencing 10 losses in a row and 4-5 negative months in the next 12 months) ? I do not know… past performance is not indicative of the future… but so far this year, inspite of the decreasing harvest (don’t forget the average range this year is 100 pips… LOWEST for many many years!), i haven’t got a negative month so far… like any business… there will be time when business is slow… Forex Trading business is no different.

[sufiansaid]

Bro sufian,

I plan to forward test only. The pairings that I am planning to trade are EUR/USD, GBD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/GBD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD and GBD/JPY. I will try to post all my trades here.

I do hope you log all your forward tests like I suggested in Backtesting section of the version 1.2 PDF. Allow me to make suggestion, since you want to test 9 pairs (which is A LOT), that you find a trader friend and ask him to help you to test like 3 or 4 of the pairs you want to trade… so you can have more focus on the pairs you want to study and test.

I don’t want to tell you what to do, but I am here to help so allow me to recommend that you just stick ONE or MAXIMUM TWO pairs for now and totally focus on it. I am not a pro trader or expert or anything like that, just an average trader but even for me, 9 pairs is too much. But ofcourse up to you. I am just speaking based on my own experience.

[caliphtrading]

I do hope you log all your forward tests like I suggested in Backtesting section of the version 1.2 PDF. Allow me to make suggestion, since you want to test 9 pairs (which is A LOT), that you find a trader friend and ask him to help you to test like 3 or 4 of the pairs you want to trade… so you can have more focus on the pairs you want to study and test.

I don’t want to tell you what to do, but I am here to help so allow me to recommend that you just stick ONE or MAXIMUM TWO pairs for now and totally focus on it. I am not a pro trader or expert or anything like that, just an average trader but even for me, 9 pairs is too much. But ofcourse up to you. I am just speaking based on my own experience.

Bro sufian,

Initially I was planning to trade only EU and GU using macfibo. However, after looking at the trade parameters that I put, I foresee a lot less signal generation that I can trade. e.g. Today, I am limited to 6 pairs because of the RSI reading. I also don’t enter any secondary signal. Thanks for your feed back bro.

[sufiansaid]

Bro sufian,

Initially I was planning to trade only EU and GU using macfibo. However, after looking at the trade parameters that I put, I foresee a lot less signal generation that I can trade. e.g. Today, I am limited to 6 pairs because of the RSI reading. I also don’t enter any secondary signal. Thanks for your feed back bro.

I do understand that but 9 pairs is too many. Hehehe… but only you know your threshold. All the best. Looking forward to your trade reviews in the thread.

[Confirmado]

Oh yea… Or was it a typo?

Typo indeed

[mario777]

perfect entry for XAUUSD:)

[ImTooTrader]

Current USD/CAD macfibo trade:

Update: trade lost, hit SL 0.9881 (((

[niX1990]

perfect entry for XAUUSD:)

perfect exit for XAUUSD

[caliphtrading]

Have not enter any trade today. Looking for signals in the following direction for these pairs in the next 3 hours:

Buy EUR/USD, XAU/USD (XAU/USD just added to my list)

Sell USD/CHF, USD/JYP, GBD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD

Will stand down if none activated. Never realize before how hard it is to really follow trading rules.

[alfa2]

Dear Sufi, do I see well that there is a part which is missing from version 1.2?
That part is what to do or not to do before or after a news candle.
Why did you left it out? I think it is important, and happen frequently.

[Si_macc]

Hi Si macc, sorry for the delayed reply.

What do you mean ‘creating a rule’ for the TP? When there is a signal, you by default TP it at 1.618 unless there is previous day’s HIGH or LOW comes before the TP, which in those cases, you TP at those level instead of 1.618 OR the closest TP such as 1.272

I was a student programmer but like almost 10 years ago. I don’t think I could pseudo code the version 1.2 trading parameters as efficiently as I was then. But don’t you think if you understand the rule I wrote in he PDF, you could easily pseudocode it? Just bein curious, why do you need to pseudocode it?

Maybe I’ve been pretty vague when i said backtesting should be done. I meant MANUAL backtesting. You create a spreadsheet as mentioned in the PDF and you go back as far as you can, and then start logging trade signal’s results STRICTLY according to the trading rule. You could also do it as if you are trading as well… set the charts that you couldn’t see the next candles and just press F12 for next candles… that way you could make it more ‘realistic’. [B]Perhaps I might make a separate guide on how I do my backtest?[/B]

No problem with the delay, you get loads of questions on this system and I know you’ve been busy!

I probably didn’t explain myself correctly. I’ve been trying to automate the back test using an algorithm on the probacktest feature on igindex. I assumed that everyone who does back testing uses a similar process but I must be wrong as you mention that you do it manually. I can see the benefit of doing it manually as the automated process isn’t either to create complex algorithm and it’s good to get a feel for the trades individually. It’ll just take a bit longer ; )

[caliphtrading]

No chance to really try my trading strategy today. Traded the news and made some pips. Will continue again tomorrow. Until next London session.

[niX1990]

Dear Sufi, do I see well that there is a part which is missing from version 1.2?
That part is what to do or not to do before or after a news candle.
Why did you left it out? I think it is important, and happen frequently.

As none of the news induced main signales from today made it to the 1.27 Tp I would say just skip those (or trade the news) and wait for the next signal.
But I am sure sufiansaid will share his thoughts and experience on this topic soon.