The intentions of this thread are to present frequent insights on current economics and events in order to understand the markets better. This couples with tangible instrument directions and targets based on such insights.
October 18th, 2019.
An outlook for broad US stock market indexes NASDAQ, Dow 30 and S&P 500.
As an outlook, opening a trade based on the target is not advised - despite probability of a timely close.
NASDAQ prices are high compared to the most recent 1-month history while technical trajectory (short-term) appears to have begun to point downward blatantly today. This begs an outlook target to short-sell the NASDAQ or S&P 500. This post will focus on the NASDAQ rather than the Dow 30 and S&P 500 as they are all closely correlated.
IXIC (NASDAQ Composite Index) Price Target -
Current Quote = $8,101
Target = $8,000 which is a 1.2% difference from the current quote today
Target Time-Frame = 1-4 weeks, extendable another month
Estimated Duration To Close = 1-2 weeks
Supporting Data -
- The volatility index for the S&P 500 (VIX) is crawling up from new higher supports, a sign price strength in the S&P 500 is fading.
- NASDAQ index prices dropped 1.2% in 3 hours from 9:30 AM open today to 12:30 PM before partially recovering.
- Consecutively lower NASDAQ index highs from peaks in July, September and October.
October 21st, 2019.
Expectations for 10-Year Treasury Bond Yields.
10-Year Treasury Yields current quote = 1.77%
FED actions proving intentions to suppress interest rates leads me to believe interest rates are being targeted. The bottom around 1.5% in August 2019 was followed by higher lows which is indicative of likely upside to continue. Technically the next leg up would likely find its way to 2.1%, approximately. Beyond that in the longer-term one could presume 3% is possible but the climate driven by the central banks is leading me to believe upside will be limited to around 2%. This will buoy demand for USD denominated stocks, clearly what the FED cares about in regards to preserving this bull market.
So expect the likely-hood that 10-Year Treasury Yields range mostly between 1.5% and 1.9% (currently near 1.8%) for the next several months or years.
October 22nd, 2019
Link To Full Thread “OCT-22 Sell GBP”
Trade Idea GBP Sell
Great British Pound (GBP) rallied sharply against its’ major peers from October 10th to October 21st posting a gain zenith of more than 6% versus the US Dollar (USD) which poses an opportunity to sell-short the profit-taking pull-back. The prime idea to me seems to pair GBP shorts with USD, CHF and JPY. Because the trend this trade idea counters was a short-term one (less than 1-month) the duration of this trade will be limited to around 1-month as well.
GBPUSD Sell
Current Quote = 1.289
Target = 1.265 (1.8% difference from current quote)
Duration = 1-6 weeks. (Estimate 1-3 weeks)
GBPJPY Sell
Current Quote = 139.8
Target = 136 (2.7% difference from current quote)
Duration = 2-12 weeks (Estimate 2-4 weeks)
GBPCHF Sell
Current Quote = 1.275
Target = 1.255 (1.6% difference from current quote)
Duration = 1-3 weeks (Estimate 2-3 weeks)
Leverage limit for aggregate position = 2X
Estimated profit / duration if successful = 10% / 4 weeks
October 28th, 2019
S&P 500 Index Outlook Update
As an outlook, opening a trade based on the target is not advised - despite probability of a timely close.
Timing for bulls dominance on S&P 500 spot prices seems limited to around a month before a pullback or correction begins.
Correlated NASDAQ at resistance of all time highs which have already been tested and established.
NASDAQ (NASDAQ: QQQ)
NASDAQ spot currently $8,324 short-sell target $8,000 for a 4% difference. Intended trade duration is 1-3 months. Grid applicable to $8,500 which is 2.1% above the spot which is currently $8,326.
October 31st, Halloween 2019
Link To Full Thread “Halloween 2019 Sell CAD”
Trade Idea CAD Sell
Buy USDCAD Target 1.323 Quote 1.315 Difference 0.6%
Sell CADJPY Target 81.25 Quote 82.25 Difference 1.2%
The duration for this trade idea is 1-4 weeks.
November 30th, 2019
Time to buy EUR/USD.
Note contrast in chart comparing before and after October 1st, 2019.
Confidence level in performance to 1.115 = high.
Quote 11/30/19 = 1.102
Target 1.115 for 1.1% difference from quote today. (11/30/19)
Duration 1-3 months
November 30th, 2019
Rough Commodities Outlook
All outlooks are considerable for high probability trade ideas.
Versus US Dollar
Aluminum = Bullish 3-24 Months
Upside expectations = 3%-10%
Natural Gas = Bullish 1-6 Months
Upside expectations = 5%-15%
Corn = Bullish 1-5 Years
Upside expectations = 10%-20%
Orange Juice = Bullish 1-5 Years
Upside expectations = 10%-20%
Overall - The US Dollar appears poised to rise modestly against commodities on average within a 1-6 month time-frame before commodities rally against the US Dollar in the longer-term (2-10 years).
Thread bullish TVIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) for 9% gain within 2-10 days.
December 5th, 2019
Buy AUDJPY, USDJPY, EURJPY targeting +0.5%.
USDJPY quote 108.76
AUDJPY quote 74.3
EURJPY quote 120.77
Duration 5-20 days
December 6th, 2019
Time for another position/hedge with a short duration to complement December 5th’s JPY sell positions. This one’s sell GBP for around 1% take-profit target.
GBPUSD quote 1.31 target 1.295 for a 1.1% difference.
GBPAUD quote 1.918 target 1.90 for a 0.9% difference.
EURGBP quote 0.843 target 0.855 for a 1.4% difference.
GBPCAD quote 1.738 target 1.715 for a 1.3% difference.
Leverage rule = Max 3X equity as aggregate position size.
Closed in 1 day.
Close this GBP hedge for approximately 1% loss in 4 days. Considering 3X leverage is 3% net loss.
December 10th, 2019
Looks like a good time to short Treasury Bond/Bill yields, target 10-year US Treasury Bond 1.77 from quote 1.843 with a duration of up to three months and an estimated close 3-9 weeks. The target 1.77 seeks 4.2% from the close.
JPY short hedge is near the same price it was when posted 5 days ago. My confidence in this position has grown since then.
Increase EURJPY quote 120.6 new average 120.7
Targets remain the same.
December 10th, 2019
Buy EURCHF quote 1.0918 target 1.099 for a 0.6% difference.
Duration 1-4 weeks.
December 18th, 2019
Follow up on JPY sell hedge from 13 days ago which turned out to be a complete success. I see the USDJPY has responded well bullish in the past 8 days. The AUDJPY and EURJPY bounces were starker still being exaggerated December 11th-13th.
USDJPY quote 109.6 from 108.7 for 0.8% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended duration.
AUDUSD quote 75.11 from 74.3 for 1.0% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended 5-20 day duration.
EURJPY quote 121.82 from 120.77 for 0.9% gain closing the targeted 0.5% 5 days ago and well within this trades originally intended 5-20 day duration.
This one hasn’t responded as expected in the past 8 days. Failed, upside possible to 3%, quote 1.92% from 8 days ago 1.843 compared to target 1.77. Abort.
December 21st, 2019
Yet another prudent time to buy the EURUSD for the short-term with a duration of 1-4 weeks. Quote 1.107, target 1.11+.
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December 23,2019
High probability trade = Sell S&P 500 for 3% from today’s quotes.
The “S&P 500” (quote $3,223) made it’s 1.5% gain on highs on top of July '19 highs, I think it’s a prudent time to sell and consider the “Volatility Index” (TVIX) as well.
S&P 500 target $3,100 quote $3,223 for a 3.9% difference. Duration 1-6 weeks, estimated 2-3 weeks.
In that case VIX (Volatility Index for S&P 500) would likely jump to around $15, which it appears likely to; quote $12.78. That would probably put the TVIX (a tradeable ticker, unlike the VIX) around $65, quote $51.15.
Looks like a good time to avoid short-term GBP exposure.
Have a holly jolly Christmas.
December 26, 2019
EURUSD looks like it’s probably about to break-out on the 1-month time-frame, quote 1.11.
December 26, 2019
Outlook USD
Looks like XAU/USD (Gold / US Dollar) is probably going to rally to highs around $1,550 quote $1,515, 1-month lows of $1,460 were reached November 27th, 2019.
That means sell USD vs. EUR, GBP, AUD, etc, with a 1-3 month duration.