Major Trend Reversal

Forgive me if this post is misplaced, I have been scanning the forums looking for the appropriate location to post.

I am fairly new to all this, so I’m just thinking out loud.

I have identified what I think a break in structure in USDCHF, possibly leading to a downtrend.
I’m looking at the 1hr chart and the uptrend since the start of July.
Does anybody think that might be the case, or think to the contrary?
What might you be looking for to confirm and persuade you to short the market?
Many thanks.

Personally, I would wait till it gets a bit below the 50 session MA on the 4hrly chart before shorting. At the moment I would say this pair is still in an upward trend and you might find it hits that 50 session MA and rockets back up.

Please note, I always temper my predictions on forums by saying there is a 49% chance I’m wrong!!! I don’t want anyone losing any money😉

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Sorry, just seen you were referencing the 1hrly chart. So, I’d wait till it gets a bit below the 200 session MA on that chart. Set a wide stop to allow for high volatility at this level cos everyones going to get interested when it hits that level.You don’t want to get stopped out on an ultimately correct prediction. If you get stopped out even with a very genorous stop then I’d switch and go long.

But personally i’d prob go long when it hits that level. Trends do reverse, of course, but I’m lousy at spotting this so I just follow trend until I start losing money.

Thanks for your comments Blue,
I see your points. The fact it’s still making higher highs and higher lows and therefore still in an uptrend.
I too like to stick with the trend. I’ve been following this pair on the uptrend and it’s been a nice steady ride, now I’m seeing that structure change and got all excited when I thought I might be noticing the start of a reversal. I’ll be keeping my beady eye on it, but won’t give up on buying this pair just yet!:eyes:

Yeah, sometimes you just think it can’t possibly go any higher or lower, then it does. I bailed out of shorting eur/chf when it got to parity, cos it couldn’t possibly go any lower, right?…:scream:

Yes blue made a good point here it’s a bit like someone saying that’s a racing "cert " obviously there no such thing .Also people are very helpful on here and give good advice but it’s understandable after years of time to become profitable they don’t necessarily want to make it too easy for others

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I’m starting to realise, the minute you think it can’t possibly do this or that, it invariably does! Perhaps I might start testing the “Opposite Day Strategy!”

Right, I’m claiming that as mine, right now. “Opposite Day Strategy TM”

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I’ve tried that!! Still goes wrong!!

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I get what you’re saying Green. I’m not here for a quick leg up. I’m passionate about trading and good advice from veterans is a valuable learning tool.

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This is one chart where I might have been too cautious.

I put a “don’t buy” marker on this on 29/06 when price closed below the swing low of 27/05. The swing high of 15/06 failed to print a close above the swing high of 16/05 so I was already expecting some bearish moves.

Its got to get a lot more bearish for me to put a “sell” marker on this so I might miss the boat again.

Just need to see when there is a break of market structure wait for confirmation whichever timeframe you are on and then trade it accordingly. Trying to time a top or bottom is like trying to catch a falling knife

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Agreed. I’m watching to see where this weekly candle closes. So far the pattern is lining up for a bearish move:

Meanwhile it’s hit that 200MA on the 1hr chart OP was thinking whether to short. So far it’s bounced off. Intersting to see what will happen. Reckon will either go up or down.

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Lol…can’t go wrong with that!

You might be on to something there Blue :joy:

In the 7 years I’ve known about forex and followed it, I’ve never seen USDCHF in what I’d consider a trend. It bounces between about 0.95 and 1 continuously with the odd minor breakout but soon heads back. Covid dropped it out for a while, but it’s back in there now.

They’re both very strong right now. It’d be a coin toss for me.

It does seem to throw up some nice shorter term trends however, I suppose it’s like trading a very long term range!

Yes, pre covid it was a nice range to trade, especially long for the carry trade. 500 pips very predictable, but a slow burn. Never really liked the CHF, but it was the most predictable pair from chart reading