Posting this now because there is an opportunity to profit that only comes around occasionally.
Right now this is hot! I am not kidding.
First of all I will allow a day or so for you to post what you think the chart is.
Some of you may be nimble minded enough to work out what the chart represents, and some may even guess what I am going to alert you to.
After a few replies, I will reveal it to you, but first try to guess.
As soon as a few people reply/comment - I will get into the substance of the thread.
But have a try - you could only be wrong 
I won’t keep people waiting long - but unless there is interest I will keep it to my self.
First clue - it is a higher TF chart
A day or so over the hols is rather difficult! 
But I’ll try to find time!
You’d be correct, Zrrsys … on both counts.
But not for the reason you’d be thinking.
One of your calls is right - but why do you think I’d be saying “go long”?
probably you have seen that support line holding strongly
Well it’s not because of any technical analysis - just an observation I fell across when researching Gold.
I take your point about the holidays and time being short, so I will give it all out now and be done with it.
I hope people at least look at it and think about whether an investment might be right for them, after looking at the history of the chart.
In the next post I will show you what I found, and what I did about it.
In 2016 I was looking at trading the higher TF. Gold had come back off its highs of 2008 - 2010, and was stabilising somewhat in a range $1100 - $1350.
What I noticed was the monthly bars were quite big, and asked myself was there “a better time to trade it than any other?” and so came the discovery that follows.
This is the chart from last year:
It seemed to me that Gold has jumped on first of January (even before at times) every year for the past 6 years. The above chart is one I made and kept around September 2018.
On 1st January 2019 I was “in” and was able to make a few dollars out of the trade.
In the chart below, the vertical red lines are drawn on the last month of the year. The next candle is GREEN for the last 6 years. Will it be green again this year? I don’t know. But the December candle this year looks like finishing on a high, and that high is still likely top be below recent highs.
From where gold is sitting today, there is a potential $80 to the most recent high of September 2019.
I hope this turns out to be a nice gift to all of those who have the means to take the trade.
I will. Just be happy with building a position carefully, and taking your time to keep stops up where they should be.
And keep an eye on the lower TF like Daily/Weekly to see any subtle developments that seek to undo the trade.
Usual warnings apply - the world is a very unstable place right now, and this can still go pear-shaped, as we know. Gold is very sensitive to world dramas.
I like the look of this, thanks. Any clue on exactly when is best to enter the trade?
Hi Treeny - thanks for replying.
No -I can’t advise when is the best time to enter.
Gold is a specialised commodity to trade, but it does follow conventional Technical Analysis.
Sometimes as you can see, there is a move higher in December, then a higher push in January.
I am just putting a toe in the water, and adding to the position when it pushes higher.
Usual thing - wait for a pullback, or just jump in small and hold on.
It is NOT important to win EVERY pip in a trade. Sometimes we miss out on a good entry, then abandon the idea of the trade.
Then the price will pull back giving another opportunity to enter.
Gold is pushing higher as I write, but how you manage this is something for you to decide.
Good luck to all who are having a trade.
Took 4 trades based on contingent orders, following the first entry at $1482.85.
Placed Buy Stop orders every $3 @ $1485 - $1488 and then closed all at $1491.36.
Later when the pullback looked complete, reentry was at $1490.71.
Was fortunate to catch that wave, and finished it all at $1499.91.
If you look at the chart I have abandoned the troublesome indicator Stochastic-RSI because of CPU demand.
Charts kept freezing due to overload, and I was able to finally delete the charts, re-load them, then remove the offending indicator from the template.
To replace the Stochastic-RSI (which I absolutely love as an indicator of direction and momentum) I constructed a multi-Stochastic in the one window - 5.3.1 / 8.3.1 / 11.3.1 / 14.3.1 / 19.3.1.
When you see them all moving in the same direction, all nice and tight, then you can have VERY high confidence of market direction. Again - when all are above the 80 zone, the trend is continuing up strongly. Vice versa for when they are below the 20 zone.
When the stochs begin to fray like a piece of cotton, time to consider getting out.
Object is to preserve capital first, make pips later.
Not losing pips is actually as good as making pips, when you consider it.
MACD is doing what the MACD does - indicates both early change of direction and strength of trend (momentum). Happy to send this to you - it is no longer available on the usual sites, but I’d need your email to get it to you, since Babypips software doesn’t allow the sending of indicators by PM.
The three Moving Averages on my chart are the 5 and 13 and 21 EMA.
I sometimes use a 65 EMA as well, to orientate me to the longer term trend.
Trading against that trend is for masochistic types.
You can PM me for my email if you like and we’ll take it from there. Those who have already gotten it from me know that I am not selling anything - it’s just a gift from an ageing trader!
The attached chart is my Live Global Prime platform.
If you join them (Aussie mob in Sydney) let me know first because I get a kick-back (Spotters Fee) which I don’t want or need, and am happy to pass on to you in full. I do all my trading with them now having ditched IG after many years.
Don’t know if Babypips approves of what I have just said, but happy to remove it if anyone finds it offensive. Can’t imagine giving someone free money would offend, but … well …
This is not intended to be a trading lesson, but I wanted to give you an idea of how to read the chart indicators. I find it very simple, and it is all you need … and demo practice.
Most of you will do ok without this, since you have the idea of this trade and can charge forward without any further input from me.
I do not give instructions by PM, so please respect that.
What you see here is all there is. Happy to answer questions here on this Journal though.
Good luck … and I will probably update a bit as the end of the month arrives.
There are probably Option Expiry Dates for this month and the next, but I don’t know them.
Those who follow COT (Commitment of Traders) Data may know.
But usually COT does drive price at month’s end, rather than any global crisis, though we know both may be in play at any moment.
EDIT: I frequently check the 1H and 4H charts as well as the 5M chart to keep me in the mood of the market.
If I see anything that looks like a trend ending or staying sideways for too long, I will then know if I should be quitting the trade or just staying in place. Gold can move fast, as anyone who has traded it knows - takes no prisoners. So be certain to trade with safe margin and safe SL.
Gold is up $15 since last post.
Trend looks to be intact with today’s pullback affording an opportunity to get in cheaply.
Don’t lose your head - enjoy the trade for what it is, and if so be there are a few pips available, then good.
Gold is doing everything technically that one could hope for in setting itself up to go long once again this year.
There are a couple of small targets - $1520 and $1535, but the real resistance is right up there at $1555.
Could we be so fortunate as to reach that in January?
Nice close this morning at $1552 - that’s a long way from where I alerted readers to the opportunity at $1488. I haven’t ridden this all the way.
Took some profits …and pulled some losing trades, but has been a decent ride until this point.
Just allow the market to sort itself out on Monday before looking for an entry.
Trade the pull-backs. Trade the pull-backs. Trade the pull-backs.
We still have a few weeks of this activity at least, so care and patience are paramount.
Don’t allow greed to grab hold of you.
At some point the market will take a breather and retrace while bigger interests are profit-taking.
[That’s a big red candle, and can destroy your account.]
Be aware and be careful - don’t be afraid to sit it out until the time is ripe.
Interesting topic. Thanks for share. I was considering to enter long position at 1.45, but not sure whether Gold will reach this level soon. What do you think?
Thanks for your question, Baldursufate.
No one can predict.
Price is now approaching former highs near $1555.
This past week it has rapidly climbed $42, which is very fast for gold - almost exponential.
In a case of exponential rise, there is usually collapse, or at least a pull-back in price, before pushing higher, or stabilising for a period of time and moving sideways.
If the market forces that pushed price to these levels are still in existence, then it may be that we will see more weeks like this one, before stability returns.
About what it will do I cannot advise.
There is certainly support at $1450, and for myself if I see a retracement , I would certainly be looking to re-enter long at that place.
There is also strong support down at $1513 - $1516.
I do expect a scenario where price retreats to take the pressure out of the market, before resuming an uptrend.
It is also possible that there may be no retracement at all, and price continues on past $1555.
If you look at a monthly chart, you will see resistance in December 2011 - to March 2013 at $1560.
I have an opinion that this is the resistance zone that gold stopped at this weekend.
Of course if it breaks through there, then we can expect that level to become new support.
Next target would be around the $1600 - $1620 level.
Many factors affect price in Gold, of course, and world affairs impinge on gold very heavily.
There is an ongoing background of Chinese and Russian accumulation of gold, as well as Chinese New Year buying up until around 25th January when the Year of the Rat is officially ushered in.
I don’t welcome the death of anyone, but the killing of the Iranian General in Bhagdad, which I see as a destabilising tragedy, must have an influence on the volatility of world affairs, and thus the gold market.
All of these things must be factored in, and we may see gold jump in price when the market opens.
I won’t be trading it until it settles down a bit - even if it moves up without me. I’d prefer to enter on a pull-back.
That’s the long answer to your question 
The Monthly chart attached is showing all those levels, as well as the formation of a classic Cup-And-Handle pattern
This is not complete, but then it does not have to be complete, before price drops away sharply.
Then again it could be a failed pattern as well - who knows!
Hope some of you were able to take advantage of the $37 spike in gold yesterday.
I held an open position and watched it rise, but was unable to do anything about locking in profits at the time.
By the time I got home, price had retraced and profits dissipated.
I now have an app on my phone to allow me to manage trades when away from home - all my own fault.
Gold tends to bottom in August and a run up to May.
Of course every year plays out slightly different.
Your right January is a big one with Chinese New Year later this month and into February.
Also Deepavali big buying season but thats November.
Central banks are net buyers of gold now - something they havent been for a while.
New accounting rules at Bank of International Settlements means gold is now classed as an asset - not a liability - this will be a backdrop for the future
Gold is coming out of a 10 year basing pattern - good luck shorting it - your going to have to be nimble.
You should defintely wait for a May peak and a bearish COT structure for that one.
Gold continues to climb.
I think we will see more gains in the next 10 days.
Again I was stopped out, but looking to get back in.
Current pullback on the lower TF so could be opportunity for those wanting to try their skills
