Market forecasting

Hello there,
I want to know your opinion on a matter. Have you seen people who have a very strong sense of market forecasting and it is interesting that even some of them did not spend significant time for training. what do you think about them?


i’ve seen lots of people who apparently think they have

and i’ve seen lots who want other people to think they have

and i’ve even seen people who are paid because someone else thinks they have (or at least thinks that they do a good enough bluff to pay them something for pretending to)

but if you really look closely at what they’re saying, they’re almost always “covering themselves either way” and their predictions, overall, are typically no better than random

that’s how it’s always seemed to me, anyway

i think most of them probably didn’t, actually - no great surprise there?

nothing much - i ignore and avoid them as much as possible

fortunately i’m a trader, not an investor, so market forecasting has almost no relevance to me at all, anyway


Honestly, I haven’t meet such person in my life. Forex without knowledge and it’s techniques is just a gamble.

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I don’t know what to say, just I know it is not something that i can accept.

I have a very strong semse of being hit by a spike once a week, albeit I don’t know when.

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lol, i hear you there! :slight_smile:

if you get to Friday afternoon and the week’s spike hasn’t yet hit you, you can stop for the week because there’s very little time left for it to appear (and who wants to trade late on a Friday, anyway?)

is an “unexpected spike” at an unspecified time the same as an unexpected hanging? :wink:

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Yes, very interesting. I am handicaped as I only trade the Asian session, and now I do not trade Monday or Friday, on a definitive understanding of what market conditions are like Mon & Fri, with the big boys aligning their weekend positions, and therefore my winning TREND trades, if any, need to be focused on the midweek instead. Probability percentages favour that…

Which does my head in when I get spiked out.

This is an excellent idea and I can accept it.

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Do you call this chance or luck?

This question comes to me since I see a lot of people doing it. Yes, forex without knowledge and education resemble gambling.

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i don’t know - and don’t know what to call it

it just seems to me that when you look at their wording, they’re often allowing for movements in either direction not to put themselves into a position where someone can say to them “Well, you got that totally wrong, didn’t you?!”

and the few who do habitually offer “right or wrong” forecasts don’t seem to do better than 50/50 anyway, though they like to appear to

maybe i’m too cynical about it, but it often seems to me that the equivocal wording they often use boils down to that of the trading cats -


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If you forecast far enough into the future then people won’t remember whether you were right or wrong anyways.

But typically they allow for the possibility of both bullish and bearish moves. “If price hits here, it could drop below here, or if price breaks through this area it could continue up to here”

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I have never met such people and I have no thoughts about them.

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When the analysis is based on education and knowledge, it is much more reliable than when it is based on senses due to the volatility of the market.


Lol yes. I see this all the time! I do appreciate though when they have some sort of market commentary to go with it.

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That’s the difference between trade and gambling. Knowledge or senses…

The difference between trading and gambling lies in the underlying principles, strategies, and approach to risk management.

Yes, trading involves informed decision-making based on analysis, research, and risk management, while gambling relies on chance and lacks the systematic approach seen in trading.