08 Feb. 2018
12:00am NZD: RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
9:00am AUD: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
12:00pm GBP: BOE Inflation Report GBP: MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Forecast0-0-9, prev. 0-09)
GBP: Monetary Policy Summary GBP: Official Bank Rate (Forecast0.50%, prev. 0.50%)
BoE didn’t change the bank rate after all.
Nope, but I got 50 pips because he mentioned it ! 
Congratulations!
I confess I didn’t trade the news even though I too saw the post. I just took it as a good reminder when not to trade.
The rate will have to change, the market will likely price that expectation into the value of GBP over time which is already in an uptrend. I would go long on GBP leading pairs.
The BOE commented that interest rates would have to rise “earlier” and by a “somewhat greater extent” than they thought last November.
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That’s what caused the knee jerk.
The Brexit effect is still very much in play Eur/Gbp so not one I’d go long GBP on right now.
Really that is interesting. I’m looking at GBPUSD now and thinking where I might enter for a 3 month long. I got in short on the 6th Feb H4 and will probably hold that until the until 14th Feb.
Are there any theories when they might actually change the rate this year?
Lots of chatter from Central Bankers over w/e and this morning - forelive comment this morning:
http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/boe-rate-hike-bets-are-cooling-off-20180212
So there won’t be any hike in the next few months. But then again, who knows, everything is possible.
MARKET NEWS UPDATE TODAY,
14 Feb. 2018
1:30pm
USD: CPI m/m (Fcst.0.3%, Pre. 0.1%)
USD: Core CPI m/m (Fcst.0.2%, Pre. 0.3%)
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (Fcst.0.5%, Pre. 0.4%)
USD: Retail Sales m/m (Fcst.0.2%, Pre. 0.4%)
3:30pm
USD: Crude Oil Inventories (Fcst.2.8M, Pre. 1.9M)
The market expects a raise in May, if none then some GBP selling, if yes then a little jump and then continue as you were.
Numbers will dictate in meantime - Friday Retail Sales, a flavor for what may happen is here:
https://brc.org.uk/news/2018/january-shoppers-keep-calm-and-carry-on
Friday Retail sales were a miss and cable fell. The miss was not a surprise.
The (linked) headline published Feb 6th from BRC summed up the month for retailers - “keep calm and carry on”.
Were there any other indicators that the market was aware of?
https://www.ft.com/content/a62ba8e2-0f1d-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb
The FT article was published at the start of this week, based on info received from:
https://www.visa.co.uk/newsroom/listing?tag=consumer+spending+index
Any other indicators?
Yeah, those were the FA, also TA showed up Friday morning UK time.
Picked this one at random, it’s referred to as zero lag macd, there was a trader who showed his use of it back a few years on ET, one ingredient is divergence.
Why did price rise (to the Feb previous high) in the hours/days before the numbers, did the mm’s think that the retail numbers were going to be positive? - I think not.
