Market normality for this week was 51%, so definitely showing hesitancy and wait-and-see attitude. I suspect we’ll see more of this indecision until the first major nation declares covid is over and masks are in the bin.
I’m thinking it will be the UK and under-pressure Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be itching to pull that trigger and try to restore his ratings in the polls and amongst his own MP’s. If he can weather the storm I see rumours by the end of this month and a victory speech in late February, with all covid response measures to end by 5th March. This will be 2 months ahead of UK elections scheduled for 05/05.
Normality this week exactly matches last week’s score - 51%. We are waiting and seeing and waiting and seeing.
We all wait to see the Ukraine situation. Likewise the covid “end-game”. Not many countries escaping the crisis yet: even here in the UK we wait to see how our escape goes.
The week’s normality score was 56%, which is positive and respectable but not dramatically high. Its the best score since the week before Christmas.
But really, what has changed? I expect normality next week to fall back a little into a more neutral zone. Omicron and Ukraine loom over world trade, which is not recovering quickly from earlier covid strains anyway.
For a brief summary of where the major capitalist economies stand -
USA - Recovering quickly from covid. Weak leadership, temporary frail president.
Germany - Stagnant. Untried new Chancellor, unwilling to confront Putin.
UK - Recovering quickly from covid but still suffering negative impacts from Brexit. Unpopular and uncommitted Prime Minister mired in multiple domestic scandals.
France - Stagnant. Deeply unpopular President facing elections.
Japan - Stagnant. As ever under unknown leadership with no identified policies.
Not so sure that the market agrees with your US political analysis - and at eod the market is right.
Chart below Eur/Usd is year before current US admin and year since - there is a clear marker (despite what some US ‘traders’ this site forecast back 12 months).
Lesson I suppose for me is to learn from the facts and not the hype
Edit: for guys learning - see that red line - it’s been there a wee while - first attention was May and June 2018 - the June hit made it relevant - then again Jan 2019.
Then yet another hit Feb '20 - this one was significant and warranted a red line.
Market normality score for the last week pretty negative - 42%. Lower than I expected.
I guess we can put that down to the determined counter-trend moves from EUR. This score isn’t exceptionally low, so I’m still expecting next week to take us close to 50%. This is a wait-and-see market. I just hope we’re not waiting-and-seeing a Ukraine war. I’ll post here if I get my call-up papers…
Apologies for no recent posts. I am engaged in a zone recovery day-trading trial campaign that I hope to be able to post more about in a few weeks. Its going well so far - it kind of makes market overview superfluous.
