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1

[B]Market Review - 04/04/2013[/B] [I][B]21:44GMT[/B][/I]

[B]Yen tumbles broadly on bold BoJ easing measures[/B]

The yen tumbled the most against the dollar since October 31 2011 as the Bank of Japan announced new stimulus measures that beat economists’ forecasts.

Versus the yen, although the greenback traded sideways in Asian morning ahead of BoJ’s rate decision and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference, price rallied after the central bank announced larger-than-forecast economic stimulus measures and rose to 95.68 in early European morning. Dollar found a fresh wave of buying at New York open and climbed to an intra-day high at 96.42 on active broad-based selling of the yen before stabilising.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said ‘took all steps needed to achieve 2% inflation in two years; will not hesitate to adjust policy further depending economy, price changes,’ The central bank also said ‘to bring forward timing of open-ended asset buying, extend duration of JGBs it buys for monetary easing; to switch policy target to monetary base fm overnight call rate; to increase monetary base at nominal pace of 60 to 70 trln yen; to double average duration of its JGBs holdings; will continue with quantitative, qualitative monetary easing as long as needed to achieve 2% inflation target in stable manner.’

The single currency traded narrowly in Asian morning and came under selling pressure in European morning and dropped to 1.2783 after EU and Germany services PMI came in weaker-than-expected. Despite a brief rebound to 1.2837 after ECB maintained its interest rate at 0.75%, euro briefly fell to a fresh 4-month low at 1.2745 due to ECB President Mario Draghi’s intial dovish bias during his press conference.

However, the single currency pared intra-day losses and rallied to 1.2882 after Draghi reaffirmed his commitment to keeping the eurozone intact and reassuring that Cyprus is not a template for other countries within the euro area. Price eventually surged to an intra-day high at 1.2949 in New York afternoon on broad-based short covering in euro.

EU and Germany services PMI were reported weaker-than-expected at 50.9 and 46.4 vs forecasts of 51.6 and 46.5 respectively.

In his news conference, Draghi said 'ECB’s monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as needed; will monitor information very closely; will assess any impact of data on price stability; closely monitoring money mkt conditions; growth risks are on the downside; if anything, events in Cyprus have reinforced ECB determination to support euro; ‘Cyprus is no template; sure Eurogroup Chief misunderstood.’

The British pound traded sideways in Asian and dropped in tandem with euro to session low at 1.5034 in European morning, however, cable rallied after the Bank of England refrained from adding more economic stimulus and kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. Price eventually hit an intra-day high at 1.5218 in New York afternoon.

In other news, Fed’s Richard Fisher said ‘hard to compare Japan, U.S. situations; Japan must conduct monetary policy the way it sees fit; Japanese easing does not put pressure on Fed to continue its own easing.’

On the data front, U.S. jobless claims rose to 385K fm 357K previously.

[B]Data to be released on Friday : [/B]

Japan leading indicators, EU retail sales, Germany factory orders, Canada unemployment rate, exports, imports, U.S. trade balance, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate and avg. hourly earnings.

2

[B]Market Review - 06/04/2013 [I]01:16GMT[/I]

Dollar falls broadly on weak Jobs data, yen hits fresh 3-1/2 year low versus dollar[/B]

The greenback dropped against major European currencies but gain versus the Japanese yen after U.S. employers added much fewer jobs in March than forecast, fueling speculation that growth in the country is stalling.

U.S. non-farm payrolls came in much weaker-than-expected at 88K vs forecasts of 190K n a previous revised figure of 268K whilst unemployment rate dropped to 7.6% from 7.7%.

Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and edged lower to session low at 1.2900 in early European morning, price jumped at New York open after the release of poor U.S. jobs report and eventually rallied to an intra-day high at 1.3040 in New York morning.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback found good buying interest at Asian open and rose to as high as 97.20 after penetrating March’s 3-1/2 year peak at 96.71. Dollar pared intra-day gains and retreated to 95.85 at European open before trading sideways. Despite a brief retreat to session low at 95.75 after the release of U.S. jobs report, price rallied to a fresh 3-1/2 year high at 97.84 in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded sideways in Asia and edged lower to session low at 1.5199 in European morning before rallying to an intra-day high at 1.5364 on dollar’s broad-based weakness. Price later pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.5321 before moving narrowly in New York afternoon.

In other news, credit ratings agency S&P affirmed U.K.'s rating at AAA and said ‘outlook remains negative; U.K. gov’t remains committed to implementing fiscal program, ratings supported by wealthy, diverse economy; U.K. negative outlook based on possibility of weaker-than-expected economic n fiscal performance.’

On the data front, U.S. private payrolls came in well below expectations at 95K vs forecast of 200K. Japan leading indicators rose to 97.5 from previous reading of 95.0.

[B]Data to be released next week : [/B]

UK employment confidence, Japan current account, economic watch DI, Swiss industrial production and U.S. midwest manufacturing on Monday.

Australia business conditions, business confidence, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment rate CPI, retail sales, Germany trade balance, current account, import, export, Japan machine tools orders, UK retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, Canada housing starts, U.S. wholesale inventories and wholesale sales on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production and U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.

Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Germany CPI final, HICP final, France HICP, U.S. import price index, jobless claims and Canada new housing price index on Thursday.

Japan tertiary industry index, France current account, Italy CPI, HICP, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, PPI, PPI core, U. of Michigan consumer confidence and business inventories on Friday.

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[B]Market Review - 08/04/2013 [/B] [I][B]18:42GMT[/B][/I]

[B]Yen slumps to a fresh near 4-year low on BoJ action[/B]

The Japanese yen continued its current weakening trend and slumped to a near 4-year low against the dollar on the monetary easing measures announced by Bank of Japan last week to beat persistent deflation in the country.

The greenback opened higher in New Zealand and rose to 98.85 ahead of Asian open and despite a minor pullback to 98.30, price edged back higher in European session and eventually rose above 99.00 to a fresh near 4-year high at 99.38 in New York afternoon on broad-based selling of yen.

Although the single currency opened lower and dropped to session low at 1.2963 in New Zealand, price rose to 1.3006 ahead of Asian open. Euro remained under pressure for the remainder of Asian session and edged lower to 1.2968 at European open before rising to an intra-day high at 1.3039 in European morning. However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.2992 in New York afternoon.

The British pound also opened lower in tandem with euro and dropped to 1.5293 in New Zealand before rising to session high at 1.5352 at Asian open. Cable came under selling pressure and continued to drop in European session on active cross-selling of sterling, especially versus euro (eur/gbp rose from 0.8464 to 0.8532), eventually falling to an intra-day low at 1.5239 in New York afternoon.

In other news, Russia President Vladimir Putin said ‘hopes bailout method used in Cyprus will not be used in future, Russia has taken decision to restructure loan to Cyprus.’ Spain PM Mariano Rajoy said ‘EU must take measures to improve financing for members, to stimulate growth.’

On the data front, Japan economic watch DI came in at 57.3, up from 53.2 previously. U.S. midwest manufacturing was reported at 96.3, down from previous figure of 97.0.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Australia business conditions, business confidence, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment rate CPI, retail sales, Germany trade balance, current account, import, export, Japan machine tools orders, UK retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, Canada housing starts, U.S. wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

4

[B]Market Review - 09/04/2013[/B] [I][B]21:32GMT[/B][/I]

[B]Yen recovers from fresh near 4-year low on profit-taking and euro rises vs usd[/B]

The greenback slipped against the Japanese currency after extending its recent bull-run to a fresh near 4-year low on profit-taking.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback continued its recent ‘bull-run’ to fresh near 4-year peak at 99.67 ahead of Asian open, profit-taking offers and option barrier at 99.75 capped intra-day gain and price retreated to 98.71 in early European morning. Dollar traded sideways and briefly edged lower to session low at 98.58 in New York morning before staging a rebound to 99.35 in New York afternoon.

Although the single currency found strong buying interest at Asian open and rose to 1.3068 after tripping large stops abv 1.3050, lack of follow-through buying caused price to pare intra-day gain and retreated to an intra-day low at 1.3005 in early European morning, due partly to cross selling of euro against sterling (eur/gbp fell from 0.8560 to 0.8508). However, euro found renewed buying there and rebounded to 1.3074 in New York morning due to the rise in European bourses and eventually climbed to an intra-day high at 1.3103 in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded sideways in Asia and rose to 1.5325 in European morning after UK industrial production increased in February more than economists forecast, boosting speculation the nation will avoid a triple-dip recession. Despite a pullback to 1.5281 in New York morning, cable rose to an intra-day high at 1.5342 in New York afternoon before stabilising.

U.K. industrial output expanded by 1% in February, after dropping 1.3% the previous month.

In other news, Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said ‘worried about fragmentation of financial markets in Europe, something shud be done by ECB.’ Italy centre-left official said ‘meeting between Bersani n Berlusconi was good, but we are at the beginning.’

On the data front, Germany trade balance came in at 16.8 billion euros versus forecast of 156.6 billion. U.S. wholesale inventories were reported at -0.3%, lower than expectations of 0.5%.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday : [/B]

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, China export, import, trade balance, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production and U.S. Fed budget.

5

[B]Market Review - 22/04/2013 [I]23:03GMT[/I]

Yen gains on short-covering[/B]

The greenback’s recent rally against the Japanese yen stalled ahead of April’s 4-year high at 99.95 and the key option barrier at 100.00. The pair was pressured in New York morning due to the weak U.S. existing home sales.

The greenback opened higher in New Zealand and rose to session high at 99.89 in Australia after the G20 gave Japan the nod to its aggressive monetary easing policies and continued to trade sideways throughout Asia. However, dollar met good resistance ahead of the key 100 barrier option, price fell to an intra-day low at 98.98 in New York morning due to long-liquidation together with the weak U.S. existing home sale and then traded narrowly in U.S. afternoon.

U.S. existing home sales in March dropped by 0.6% to 4.92M, weaker than the forecast of 5.01M.

Although the single currency opened higher and rose to 1.3093 in New Zealand due to cross-buying of eur/jpy, price retreated to 1.3054 ahead of Asian open. Despite a brief rebound to 1.3084 in Asian morning, euro retreated again on expectations of a possible interest rate cut from the European Central Bank and dropped to an intra-day low at 1.3015 in New York morning. Later, price pared intra-day losses and rebounded to 1.3069 in New York afternoon.

The British pound remained under pressure in New Zealand and dropped to session low at 1.5202, however, price rebounded to 1.5246 in Asian morning before retreating again to 1.5211 in early European morning. Later, cable strengthened on speculation UK will avoid a triple-dip recession and rose to an intra-day high at 1.5274 at New York midday.

In other news, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio said ‘ECB interest rate cut is always a possibility, depends on information.’

On the data front, Chicago Fed nation activity index in March came in at -0.23, prior reading is revised to 0.76.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday:[/B]

Australia conference board leading index, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy consumer confidence, UK PSNCR, PS net borrowing, Canada retail sales, U.S. redbook retail sales, house price index and new home sales.

6

[B]Market Review - 27/04/2013 [I]00:38GMT[/I][/B]

[B]Dollar drops broadly on weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP[/B]

The greenback weakened against majority of its peers Friday on the back of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth and tumbled against the Japanese yen after Bank of Japan didn’t announce any new monetary easing measures.

U.S. GDP expanded by 2.5% in Q1, weaker than market forecast of 3.0%, U.S. benchmark government bond yields fell to a near 4-1/2 month low as the data raised concerns on U.S. tepid growth as well as possibility of more measures to boost growth by the Fed.

Dollar yen moved the most on Friday, the pair came under pressure at Tokyo open on broad-based buying of yen by Japanese exporters, price briefly tanked to 98.23 after the Bank of Japan kept its rate unchanged at 0.10% and refrained from announcing any new stimulus measures.

Despite a brief recovery to 98.84 in early European morning, dollar resumed intra-day decline and quickly fell after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP and tumbled to an intra-day low at 97.56 in New York morning. Later, dollar pared some of its intra-day losses and rebounded to 98.33, price traded at 98.09 near New York close.

BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said ‘no talk at today’s meeting that further easing was needed now; board member Sato, Kiuchi dissented to forecast Japan will see 2% inflation towards Mar 2016.’

Although the single currency rose in Asian morning to session high at 1.3048, price met selling interest there and retreated to 1.2991 at New York open. However, euro staged a rebound to 1.3039 on dollar’s broad-based weakness due to poor GDP data before stabilising in New York morning.

Although the British pound rose in tandem with euro in Asian morning to 1.5472, price retreated to session low at 1.5418 in European morning. However, renewed buying quickly emerged and lifted the pound, price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.5499 after release of GDP, however, price traded sideways in New York afternoon and closed around 1.5473.

In other news, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said ‘road to recovery remains uneven; growth in euro area remains weak; ECB cannot target unemployment; effect of a rate cut would be limited; rates too low could lead to distortions; costs of very low interest rates are real; ECB has to recognize limits of monetary policy; ECB cannot remove constrains of bank lending.’

On the data front, U.S. University of Michigan confidence in Apr came in at 76.4, better than the forecast of 73.2.

[B]Data to be released next week: [/B]

China, Japan market holiday, UK housing survey, Germany retail sales, CPI, HICP, U.S. personal income, personal consumption, PCE index and pending home sales on Monday.

Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, China market holiday, UK Gfk consumer confidence, mortgage approvals, France PPI, EU CPI, unemployment rate, Canada GDP, PPI, U.S. redbook retail sales, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Australia new home sales, China market holiday, manufacturing PMI, Germany market holiday, UK manufacturing PMI, U.S. ADP employment, manufacturing PMI

7

[B]Market Review - 04/05/2013 [I]01:42GMT[/I][/B]

[B]Dollar soars vs yen on U.S. jobs report[/B]

The greenback surged the most in 2 week against the Japanese yen on Friday after U.S. jobs report showed employers added more jobs than market forecast and unemployment rate dropped to a 4-year low, increasing optimism U.S. economy is recovering.

U.S. non-farm payroll came in at 165K, better than the market forecast of 145K, the prior reading was revised up from 88K to 138K; the U.S. unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 7.5%.

Although the greenback traded in a narrow range in Asia due to market holiday in Japan, the pair edged higher to 98.25 in early European morning, price retreated to 97.95 ahead of the release of U.S. jobs report. Dollar swiftly soared after the upbeat data and climbed to session high at 99.28, however, dollar’s broad-based retreat versus other major currencies kept price moving in a tight range for rest of the U.S. session, dlr last traded around 99.03 at Friday’s New York close.

The single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and gained to 1.3137 in European morning after ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny played down talks of negative rates which were suggested by ECB president Mario Dragi on Thursday.

Despite a brief but sharp fall to an intra-day low at 1.3033 immediately after the release of U.S. jobs report on dollar’s broad-based strength, euro quickly pared intra-day losses and ratcheted to session high at 1.3160 in New York morning on increased risk appetite together with cross-buying versus yen (eur/jpy surged from 128.43 to 130.32). Later, price retreated to 1.3102 at New York midday before stabilising moving narrowly for rest of New York afternoon session.

ECB’s Nowotny said ‘markets over-interpreted deposit rate signal; no specific plan on negative deposit rate; sees no negative deposit rate in immediate future; no major central banks has ever had negative deposit rate; clear over-interpretation of deposit rate signal.’

Although the British pound retreated to 1.5520 in Asia morning, price rebounded in European morning to 1.5571, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.K. services PMI. Cable tumbled to an intra-day low at 1.5480 at New York open on dollar’s strength, however, price pared intra-day losses and rallied in tandem with euro to session high at 1.5603 in New York morning before stabilising around 1.5565 in New York afternoon.

U.K. service PMI in Apr came in at 52.9, better than the forecast of 52.4.

In other news, EU Commissioner Olli Rehn said ‘recovery in France delayed, will impact fiscal consolidation, reasonable to extend deadline for deficit cuts by 2 years; Spain to get 2 more years for budget consolidation as well; Slovenia can get more time for budgets cuts if presents broader strategy to deal with economic problems; Slovenia’s economic situation is still manageable providing it takes action without delay.’

On the data front, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index falls to 53.1, vs the expectation of 54.0.

[B]Data to be released next week : [/B]

Australia retail sales, China services PMI, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, EU service PMI, retail sales, investor confidence, Canada building permits and Ivey PMI on Monday.

Australia trade balance, import, export, RBA rate decision, Swiss unemployment rate, France trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing production and Germany factory orders on Tuesday.

Swiss CPI and Canada housing starts on Wednesday.

New Zealand unemployment rate, China trade balance, exports, imports, CPI, PPI, Australia unemployment rate, employment change, UK industrial production, manufacturing production, BoE rate decision, Germany market holiday, France market holiday, Canada new housing price index, U.S. weekly jobless claims, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales on Thursday.

Japan current account, economic watch DI, Germany trade balance, current account, import, export, Italy industrial production, UK trade balance and Canada unemployment rate on Friday.