Hello traders, with this forum i would like to share on my personal view of the market and also as a practice on what I have learned in trading and hope to be helpful to some.
OVERVIEW
The US inflation rate previously eased by 0.1% (6.4%), indicating signs of deceleration of the ease in inflation, which could convince the FED to maintain their hawkish stance. Most of the major currency pairs, however, retraced most of their gains from the past trading session. While the stock market remains bullish, but it is at risk to a downturn.
DATA RELEASE
Inflation easing by 0.1% and dropping to 6.4% from 6.5% makes little change related to the past trading session. The change in the inflation numbers shows signs of a clear deceleration in the easing of inflation. With inflation slowing, the FED’s hawkish stance would be reinforced, allowing them to continue raising interest rates until 2023, with 5.1% as their target terminal rate.
Looking at the effect of the inflation data release on the market, the S&p 500 remains slightly unchanged as price makes a doji pattern and also an inside bar in the trading session. However, the bullish stance remains intact. A break above the recent high of the 4200 level could reaffirm the bullish sentiment. However, there is a potential risk of a break of the 4085 support level, reverting sentiment back to bearish, as deceleration in the easing of inflation and rate hikes become more likely, which can be bad for business performance and stocks overall.
FOREX MAJORS
EUR/USD
The euro still holds on to the bullish trend as the price finds support at around the 1.07 level. Price rose to 1.08 in the previous trading session before falling back to close at 1.0736.Price is also hugging the sloping 50-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA remains flat as it lags behind price. There is a potential for the price to target the 1.10 level if the bullish trend remains intact. A break of the 1.07 support level, on the other hand, may cause the euro to target the 1.05 support level in January 2023.
USD/JPY
The yen has been trading in a range since January 2023 and is currently trading in the 130–133 small range in February. The release of the inflation data caused the yen to trade above 133 and break the 50-day SMA, as the price had previously been dragged to 132.54 pre-data release. However, overall sentiment is still mixed, as the price may need to break out of the range for a more established directional bias. Personally, the 134.25 resistance level since December 2022 will be an interesting key level to watch. Especially since the economy contracted in two of the four quarters last year and Ueda was rumored to be nominated to replace BoJ Kuroda. A break above would make the Yen target the 200-SMA at 136.845; if the 134.25 resistance holds, the Yen could trade back to the 130.50 support level.
GBP/USD
The Sterling overall still remains in a range since November 2022 and trading between the 1.2450 and 1.1850. Currently, price is trading in the middle of the range, and on the previous trading session, price initially made a push to 1.2270 and then drove back down to 1.2157 as the inflation data was released. The U.K. is currently having the highest inflation among its peers (10.5%) also recent data release to show relatively strong labor markets and growing average earnings; however, this still does not prevent economic contraction, as with the BoE Tenreyro dovish comment, “In my view, rates are too high right now. I would vote for rate cut but can’t say which meeting” could establish a bearish outlook for the Sterling.
With that in mind, the pound has the potential to target 1.1850 and a break below it would re-affirm the bearish sentiment, as price is still trading in the middle of the range and also between the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
P.S. My opinions are my own, and please do your own due diligence as trading carries a high degree of risk and substantial loss.