Welcome to Friday! Bitcoin inches closer to $100K, with spot and futures markets hitting record highs. Gold breaks above its 50DMA, bolstering bullish picture, while crude oil builds momentum despite lighter volumes. ASX 200 futures remain a buy-on-dips play, edging closer to record highs. EUR/USD stays under pressure, hitting fresh 2024 lows.
By :David Scutt, Market Analyst
- Bitcoin hits record highs above $98K; bias remains to buy dips
- Gold clears 50DMA, bolstering the case for upside
- Crude Oil upside momentum builds after bullish engulfing candle
- ASX 200: Buy-on-dips preferred as futures approach record highs
- EUR/USD breaks support at 1.0517; bears eye deeper downside toward 1.0200
Welcome to Friday! TGIF!
Market wrap
An overnight session where commodity currencies and cyclical index futures outperformed, although there was some love for long duration assets with gold and bitcoin continuing to grind higher. Bond markets were muted reflecting the quiet calendar scattered with second-tier releases. It’s likely to remain that way into Thanksgiving next week.
Looking ahead, Japanese inflation figures for October will be in focus in Asia, although it’s unlikely to move USD/JPY without a meaningful surprise, while flash PMI reports for November are likely to receive plenty of attention at the start of the European session.
Here are the markets that caught my eye.
Bitcoin
Source: Trading View
Bitcoin is closing in on $100,000, with spot and futures markets hitting fresh record highs above $98,000 on Thursday. Technically, it remains in an uptrend, supported by bullish RSI (14) and MACD signals. Rising futures volumes bolster the case for further gains despite RSI’s overbought status—a condition that hasn’t deterred the cryptocurrency from delivering strong gains in the past.
For now, buying dips is the preferred strategy, as long as the uptrend from early November holds.
Gold
Source: TradingView
Gold delivered another solid session Thursday, breaking above its 50-day moving average—a bullish development that strengthens the case for further gains. RSI (14) is trending up, and MACD is on the verge of confirming the bullish signal.
The 50DMA now acts as a potential level for building long positions, allowing for entry above with a stop beneath for protection. On the upside, August’s former uptrend support around $2700 could present resistance, followed by $2710 and the record highs. If a reversal occurs, $2643.50 is the first downside target.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to USD/JPY trading in Q4 2024.
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/market-outlooks-2024/Q4-usd-jpy-outlook/
Crude Oil
Source: Trading View
Crude continues to build on the bullish momentum from this week’s engulfing candle, with Thursday’s session clearing minor resistance at $69.75 before stalling at the 50-day moving average. RSI (14) and MACD both point to further upside, though lighter volumes is a slight concern.
For bulls, buying ahead of $69.74 with a stop beneath provides a setup targeting $72.65—where prices previously stalled. Waiting for a clear break of the 50DMA before committing is another option for tighter risk management.
ASX 200 SPI Futures
Source: Trading View
ASX 200 SPI futures remain a buy-on-dips play, with price, RSI (14), and MACD all trending higher. Overnight, the bounce from 8310 suggests a morning star pattern may form if these levels hold through Friday.
With record highs just 60 points away, pullbacks toward 8310 offer an appealing entry point for longs, allowing for stops to be placed below for protection.
EUR/USD
Source: Trading View
EUR/USD remains frustrating for bulls, consistently failing to hold potential bottoms. Wednesday’s evening star pattern combined with geopolitical risks to break support at 1.0517, pushing the pair to fresh 2024 lows.
The bearish trend remains intact, and selling rallies remains the preferred play. Below 1.0448, support is sparse until 1.0222, making big figures likely targets for shorts.
– Written by David Scutt
Follow David on Twitter @scutty
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.