I think you are right. I don’t know if it always manipulated, but it is enough to make institutional traders profitable 100% of the time. I have heard that institutions also day trade, so there must be mathematical patterns intraday as well. Or am I wrong?
What advice can you give me? I lack your advanced math and statistics skills. My degree is in economics and my math skills are up to multivariate calc, differential eq, intro to linear algebra and statistics is way worse, only econometrics - all at the bachelor level.
I didn’t find something that works intraday, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist. Though I have mathematical EAs on EUR/USD H1 LONG and SHORT and H4 SHORT, but they don’t get near the performance of the one on the high timeframe. For now, I gave up small timeframes because I work on a similar pattern on GBP/JPY, I will maybe retake the testing on the small timeframes in the future.
Advices…I don’t know what to say about that.All the internet is full of advices from various’‘traders’’.I don’t really like to give advices but what can I say is that you must not think like the others.They think like them and they are wrong in 95%+ of the cases.
Don’t trust much in technical analysis and trust even less in fundamental analysis because people can say anything.You feel like this Brexit panic is not manipulation of the market? And it’s fundamental analysis
But there is a common idea that one must gain 100% month in this market,this is wrong - 30%+ year is much not to mention 100% year.
But this % works only for people with money,for 5k wont work therefore people are pushing the accounts way beyond limits. So an advice would be not to push the account to big numbers,better less and be safe. You said 500k is a good account,i agree. 30% for 500k in one year it’s great,150k/year.
As I said,i want a stress free trading ,a good life and time for fishing.This method is doing just great for me.
Thanks for the further detail Troland. At least people here can get a better perspective on the parameters which your method requires.
Personally, I do not believe in the manipulation theories that regularly pop up from time to time, nor that government monetary policy is geared to wiping out retail traders each with their fistful of dollars. But there are some cowboys out there with their Mag .45 accounts but the institutional investors/bankers do not 100% always win. The main reason why so many newbies fail is nothing to do with the failings of fundamental of technical methods, it is purely due to their own amateurism and serious lack of knowledge about what they are doing. Those that make it are those that make their trading a profession.
But whatever I may think or believe has absolutely nothing to do with your thread or your method - so I will leave you in peace! Thanks again for your deeper clarifications and explanations. But I won’t wish you good luck as that has nothing to do with mathematics whatsoever
You’re welcome Manxx.What can I say regarding market manipulation.I’ve seen enough things in my career to believe that such things exist.But this is me.
People see things differently and it’s alright. Each applies what he thinks is best. Regarding the “trader” title, I think that it’s too easy for someone to take on this title and most people that trade are people with other jobs who do this for varying reasons, but without a real success. And they have no way of getting successful either.
Luck is always needed,regardless of the approach.Science often needs some luck.That’s the beauty of it.
What I wanna know is if my math knowledge is enough to do the kind of research you have done (i feel like it is not enough). Overall I am an analytical person and like to use logic. I just don’t have a degree in this subject. What tools should I learn to be successful in this type of research? How important is the knowledge of math/statistical principles compared to the general thought process and understanding concepts of how to approach the problem?
Alright man, you are just giving empty answers that have zero value. That’s ok since this section is about “showing the money” and you have done that. Now post it in the correct section, you are not a day trader!
These are the main concerns I have with your post here. You say that the first trade, put on in Feb, was triggered by your mathematical pattern, but the second and third positions were added to a progressively losing situation in a “pyramid” fashion. You do not say, for example, was your third trade added as a direct consequence of your mathematical signals and patterns, or was it actually a well-executed and professional day trade based on your observation of the market and analysis of the info announcement that triggered that day’s huge move? If it was not a direct action based on your method and implemented irrespective of the current market action, and was based on your observations, then it should not be included in your presentation of the results of your method regardless of how good the trade was.
It is commonly stated that it is extremely dangerous practice to pyramid and add further positions to losing trades whether trading is based on fundamental, technical, statistical or any other form of analysis. There are times when one [I]can [/I]take a well-calculated risk with adding positions, but it is not in general a good practice and it seems like some 2/3rds of the profit you are demonstrating here are actually the result of this practice and not your original pattern analysis. In fact, one could add that 1/3rd of this profit was in fact the result of your highly successful day trade - a practice which you claim is unprofitable.
The other related issue here is your comment that “it could have gone wrong”. [B]Yes, it could but it didn’t[/B]. This is precisely the point. Your method is based on statistical analysis of historical data resulting in a probability assessment of the likely outcome of a trade setup. It is not a 100% guarantee, it is a high probability. Therefore your comment should really be extended with the caveat that it didn’t go wrong “this time”.
It may well be that you have a very accurate method, but I don’t think a handful of trades, a couple of which were possibly placed based merely on subjective pyramiding rather than specific method signals, is sufficient evidence of consistency over the long term nor justification for taking significant risks in pyramiding losing positions.
Hopefully, you can dismiss my fears with more detail of how your trade timings and levels are decided by your method rather than by your subjective assessment at the time of opening. This is not a criticism, on the contrary, if this was a subjective trade then my compliments to you on a fine example of a day trade!
I look forward to seeing your results as you progress during the year(s) ahead.
Hello. on EUR/USD I don’t have a pattern yet, but lately I have been testing my mathematical methods with success on stocks.
I opened a small trading account and I will post my trade entries here for the people who trade stocks.
Likewise the EUR/USD method, the stocks method has a success rate that is close to 100%.
Diversifying a portfolio is always a good idea, so I chose to try stocks as well.
I also found a mathematical pattern for shorts.
Today I took my first trade.
I invite you to test this trade, its mathematical and the backtests show a 92% success rate. For now I do not have a fixed take profit, but I will update you once I close the trade.
Because it’s the first trade taken on a live account, I chose to risk only 1% of it. I recommend you do the same, but no more than 3%.
The entry is at 1.13253 with a stop loss at 1.13996.
I’ve managed to further optimise my method and this has resulted in a increased number of mathematical trades, now making it possible to do several trades per day. I will be posting here a few of those trades I get each week.
I’ll start with the first one:
Trade recommendation: Sell GBPCAD at market ,currently 1.9069 with SL 1.9220 and TP 1.8945,recommended 2% of equity(not balance)
Here you can see my results obtained in last few weeks and my active trades,shared here as well.Since the trading method is mathematical i’ve managed to find patterns in more pairs and more timeframes.I will share the trades with you,here.Feel free to try either in your real accounts or demo(for those who need to gain some trust).The projected profit is 20-30%/month with under 7% drawdown.
Regarding risk reward ratio,i have found that people are guided by a HUGE missconception about risk reward ratio and that is the positive risk reward per trade which should be a must.This is VERY WRONG,mathematical speaking.My risk reward ratio is negative and as exmaple for one trade with 100 pips SL i can have 40-50-60 pips TP.
Win rate is in backtesting over 86.2% per year. First weeks in my real investment account were very good as you can see.I expect same results in the future as well.
Spread is of little importance for me.Another missconception that make people think they cant be profitable with bigger spreads,for example 2.5 pips EU instead of 1.6. That may affect scalpers but it doesnt matter anyway for them.They never win even if you give them spread 0.
The mathematical systems works so far on every pair,sadly i dont have an EA yet and i dont have time to look on all charts.I use few pairs and the number of trades can go even as high as 30-40/week.Assuming i dont sleep at all and i take every pattern that come into existence.
I have multiple accounts and so far i have invested 250.000$. The image shared here is with me 100k account ,conservative trading no more than 5-7%/trade.
Other accounts have 9% and 12%/trade. The Drawdown is according to risk but can be kept under control easy.I will attach the situation for 100k account,in details for better understanding of my trading systems.
Consider the following “system” that has~90 percent winning
trades, where the average winning trade is $275, and 10 percent losing
trades, where the average losing trade is $2,700:
Expectation = (0.9 * 275) ~ (0.1 * 2,700) = ~22.5
The expectation is negative. This is a system through which you get
to be right 90 percent of the time and you eventunlly lose n/l your money
trading it.
I agree with Manxx that your system looks a bit dangerous You start the thread with 4 to 5 trades a year only EU and now you trade it on several pairs several times a day and even stock Why the big change?
I consider all indicators like mathematical systems. What is different in your system? Why you can not tell more about it, people share here ideas to learn from it. We don’t want to know your secrets
So far I understood this:
You are looking for a mathematical pattern We are all looking for patterns I suppose. What do I have to imagine with this mathematical pattern? Is this the trigger to open a trade?
You found statistical some numbers for SL and TP that give the best results SL > TP
You are pyramiding trades (scaling in)
Your risk an position sizing is not so clear (3%-5% risk and fixed position size?)
Which of these elements are making your system successful in your opinion?
Sorry for all the questions but I just like to analyze things.
Your results are looking good but it made me think of the example from Tharps book that I put on the top
Don’t be to negative about intra day trading Some people here make the same percentage in a day what you make in a year. Some of them make 1% a day average Do you know how much that is compounded over a year? And I quote from a trader on BP “If I would make only 30% I would look for a day yob,I start my account with $500 and dubbel that every few days” Just want to say there are a lot of stories on BP. I learn from their success if they share it and I learn even more from their mistakes
Unfortunate I am not a successful trader yet. But today I made more then 2% and I am happy with that
i totally agree with you. the market is manipulated and math is always the answer. u gotta love math. hi, my names jr and i believe its faith i met you bro i would really be interested in hearing your method more and the math behind it. im a huge math lover i gotta say forex has sparked the math in me again after college i didn’t use much other than at most algebra but not trigonometr, calculus etc. so i would be awsome if we can talk sum more
Troland, I do strongly believe and agreed that market is manipulate and mathematical method is the key to success in forex regardless of which pair of currency been trade. however technical and fundamental analysis is not a sustainable method in the long run in the future. therefore do you mind sharing your trade or EA?
Troland, I do strongly believe and agreed that market is manipulate and mathematical method is the key to success in forex regardless of which pair of currency been trade. however technical and fundamental analysis is not a sustainable method in the long run in the future. therefore do you mind sharing your trade or EA?.
Thanks again for your deeper clarifications and explanations. But I won’t wish you good luck as that has nothing to do with mathematics whatsoever 
