Mathematical trading


I have a trading method that in 16 years of backtests has only 2 lost trades from a total of 53.
The trades are based on mathematics and the pattern which generates them is rare, but the trades are reliable and guaranteed.

This is the safest method I have and I only trade this one.

I will post here my last such trade and my future trades.

Feel free to test my trades.

After years of trading Forex I have concluded that daily trading is not profitable due to the many and various events that move the market up and down and generate noise, making it totally unpredictable.
Do you know someone who does daily trading and is profitable? Thus, I’ve decided to work on higher timeframes using mathematics, which produced my excellent results without risk and stress.

1 Like

There are day trading methods that can have 50 winning trades in a row. Remember that statistically there is a good chance that in the next 16 years it will only produce 20-30 out of around 50 winning trades. Keep your risk-reward ratio well enough that you can trade it!

Good luck :23:

I have created a purely mathematical trading method with a extremely low chance of failure, I invite you to test the next trade I post.

It’s not based on technical or fundamental analysis, it’s purely mathematical and I have sacrificed a high number of trades per year in favor of a stable method that can allow me to not sit pointlessly in front of my computer the whole day.

As for trading, I don’t know a retail trader that can trade successfuly, those individuals are incapable of keeping a account alive for more than a few months maximum. For risk/reward I recommend 5% risk per trade.

I also have a automated expert advisor that is based on mathematical trading as well and it trades the H4 timeframe and its success rate is 76% which is not satisfying for me, so I have kept to trading high timeframes.

What is the mathematics based off of? If it has no fundamental reason for its validity then mathematics isn’t going to help you.

What’s the average size of winners in pips and average loss? How many pairs can it trade? Is that 53 trades on 1 pair or the entire portfolio?

Troland, what mathematical/statistical method and data are you using? Please explain the methodology of your research and the logic behind it.

Part of this method is based on mathematical probabilities. I can’t give more details than this, but it’s not based on fundamental analysis and it does not require it. As a example, you have above the images posted showing the last live trade that was during the ECB event. Back then, everyone expected EUR/USD to drop and even the first candle was red, then the market suddenly turned around and I booked the profit in the same day.

Mathematics is everything, technical and fundamental analysis do not matter or matter very less. I know both types of analysis and comparatively with the mathematical method, the last is net superiour.

The method is just for EUR/USD because it wasn’t easy to develop, and it works solely on EUR/USD. Each currency pair has different mathematical patterns. I can provide the backtest on Skype. You can add me to receive them.

The method was not tested and designed using default MT4 historical data, but with Olsen historical data.
I cannot provide details about the method but I can provide backtest.

You’re invited as well to execute the next trade I post on your account. I will post it in this thread when the required pattern will appear.

Intraday traders expose themselves to a very high risk, that’s why they don’t trade successfuly and a lot of people lose their accounts.

As a analogy: The more you swim in the ocean and during any kind of weather, the higher the risk that the sharks will eat you. I have chosen to swim only in clear, sunny days when I can see the bottom of the sea clearly (when the mathematical pattern appears).

The results already exist and are clear. Since the last such trade, I have not done anything else, I am just waiting.
But last week it was a hard one for intraday traders, especially during Friday, so I’m glad that I wasn’t in the market and for this reason I’ve created this method. Minimal risk, minimal stress with the low number of trades.

I don’t expect to do more than 5-7 trades per year, I want stability.

Stability is always nice but 5-7 trades a year is not a sustainable income generator unless you play with mad leverage and risk a sh*tload of money per trade (could as well be your life savings).

Also you are wrong about day traders. Because you can’t figure out how to day trade, it doesn’t mean it cannot be done. You can call it extremely hard, but not impossible. Some people make a living from day trading.

Talking about leverage and high risk, I will tell you about my account. 100,000$ with leverage 1:100 and 5% risk per trade (even though tests show that its safe to trade with even 15% risk per trade). For a take profit of 150 pips using 5 lots at 100,000$ balance (which means 5% risk per trade) it means 7500$ per trade x 5 trades a year = minimum 35,000$.
With that amount of profit you can live anywhere in the world without problems.

In the last trade I had 8.5% risk per trade from which 1.5 lots were taken at a level lower than the initial entry given by the EA, thus the profit was 13,000$, a lot more than the 5% estimation.
The leverage is 1:100 and the level of risk is more than acceptable.
The mathematics shows a profit of 30% which is extraordinary. Don’t think Forex is done using 5,000 or 10,000 , what to say about lesser amounts of money. The ones who do that have zero chances of profit, do you honestly know a single consistently profitable intraday trader?

It’s just a trick of the brokers to make people believe they can make profit, it’s a manipulated and controlled market by the central banks and the big funds, the retail traders have nothing to say and they don’t move the market in any way.
Actually, I know a few day traders who trade for 30+ years and have a profit of 10% each 2-3 years (I have proofs when I say this, because I personally know them).

But don’t take my word for granted about daytrading, try it and convince yourself.

Anyway, I recommend a minimum of 50,000$ invested in a Forex account to be able to make some decent profit. Not for no reason it is being said that 95% of the market participants lose and the rest of 5% have informations about the moves of the banks and funds, so insiders trade purely mathematical, and they’re some people who make a living from trading.
NOT daytraders, and I ask you again, do you know someone who trades each day and is profitable?

A lot of money can make money, few money die out. That’s how it works. Any account under 50,000$ has minimal chances of success. Especially if you want it to be trading for a living. So, with the 5-7 trades per year I can live the whole year without problems.

This is the second account, in which I will take a risk slightly higher than in the first, it being a smaller account as well.

I am perfectly satisfied with 5-7 trades per year because I know that at the end of the year I will have profit, I have no doubts about that.
I will post the trades and results here.

TrickShady, I invite you to open a demo account and to test on it just the trades I will be posting here. Let’s see if you will be satisfied in 2017 with the results and if you will still want to daytrade.

Troland, it would be helpful for others if you would also detail the maximum that your trades actually went against you before being closed even though they ended up in profit, as well as the size of the stop requirements that seem to be over 300 pips? Although you mention that you anticipate 6-7 trades a year, your statement already shows 6 trades within less than one month.

Three of these trades were all closed on the same day, 10.3.2016, due to the totally abnormal huge range both down AND up on that day. Two of these trades were opened at 1.10328 (on 25.2.) and 1.09898 (on 7.3.). The third trade was actually a day trade. The low on the 10.3. before these trades were closed was around 1.0820, which is a long way below your entry levels. This was a grossly volatile day that could have gone just as rapidly down as up - and your stops were down at 1.0617 and 1.0657? In fact the bulk of your profits on this statement arise from just 3 simultaneously open trades that happened to benefit from an almost uniquely vast range on that single day.

Maybe mathematics can predict the markets, but I just think people should know the extent of the price tolerance - and margin - required as well as the final results. If the market had dropped as fast and as far as it ended up rising on that day you could have seen a very different result. I am not passing any kind of judgement on your method here, I am just emphasing that the total exposure risk during the trade is as relevant as the final outcome.

I may well have misread your statement and apologise in advance if I am in error here! :slight_smile:

Troland, I don’t know any traders personaly. All traders I know are from the forums. I know this is not the best way to know if somebody is successful or not but I believe I have seen a few day traders that actually make a living from it and I think I can trust them.

I was right that you need a lot of money to make a living from your method. And as you showed with your small account of 100k you can’t do that. Not sure where you live but where I live 35k a year is slightly above minimum wage and you will have a miserable life. Bump your account to at least 500k to have a good life (here). However, 35k is great supplemental income!

You are also right that math is the best way to trade. That is how most institutions trade but not always. I just want to know what your educational background is and what skills does one need to have in order to do a mathematical research as you did?

1 Like

The trades have a tp of 150 pips and a statistical sl of 375 pips.
Statistically, iifi it goes 375 pips against the trade then the following move will continue in that direction and keeping the trade would result in a bigger loss.
That’s the value which I’ve found to be perfect, same as with the tp.

All trades I’ve analysed have moved at least 150 pips but from that value on, the numbers differ: 164, 178, 153, 210.

I couldn’t find anything in common except the 150 pips value for the take profit, but anyway that can be further exploited with a trailing stop if necessary.

Regarding the trades, we start with the last of 0.01 which is surely not a significant trade, but I was called and questioned if everything is alright with the account, because there was no trading activity on it.
So, I wanted to prove that I’m alive and that I’m monitoring the market, I just put a 0.01 trade and closed it rapidly, but on a account of 50k its obvious that can’t be considered a trade.

The rest of the trades from there on, had a target of 1.1141. Both of them were trailed.

Two trades were closed earlier (a mistake from my part) because I considered the market exposure too high, but the next time I won’t be doing that mistake again and I will respect the tp.
Moreover, even if there’s a single pattern ocurring , it can generate multiple trades.
Because it’s position trading, many times the market will be going against the trade for a while, and the closer it gets to the sl, the more I permit myself to take another trade or two.
In conclusion, the first trade shows the mathematical pattern. From there on, I can leave it with a single trade or I can build the position if the market permits it. In the current case, I’ve been pyramiding.

Regarding “it could have gone wrong”. Yes, it could but it didn’t. Many say that if it would have gone higher, I would have been rich, but it went lower and I lost. If you put it that way, anything can happen, there is always the other side. But I am certain on the final outcome.

The pattern appeared at the price of 1.0990 with a target at 1.1141. But i’ve seen that there’s a pattern forming since 23 February so I took a trade from there with low volume and waited for it to be complete, which the pattern did in 6 March.
Actually, I am very fine with the market going against me for a while. The more it goes against me, the more I buy and such a pattern can bring huge profit.

I have 12 years of trading on almost all instruments; stocks, futures, commodities etc.
My degrees are in mathematics and statistics and in my whole career, I’ve never seen one individual who uses technical and fundamental analysis and is successful.
It goes well for them for a period of time, a few months or a few years but it all stops then because the dynamics of the market changes and adapts.
For example, 10 years ago a Head and Shoulders pattern was rare and very powerful. Now there are many ocurring, comparatively with the 2000-2005 period and many of them are misleading.
Even the Elliot Wave theory which worked so well in the past stopped working now. It was further developed, changed and updated into NeoWaves and it still doesn’t have the good results that the old theory had in its past.

I’ve studied mathematics and statistics, I am from UK but I’ve moved to Italy, the weather is warmer.
I can say that 4-5k and even 3k USD per month are more than sufficient for me here to live a good life, but the bigger my account is the bigger the profit gets, clearly.

Precisely because the market is always changing, and technical analysis is nothing more than a psychological analysis of the changing market, it doesn’t stay the same way.

Whoever discovered the concept of support and resistance, has probably made a huge load of money because he observed that at certain prices the market tends to go higher or drop lower. But now it’s not working anymore, it can be easily seen and drawn on the chart but it’s rarely being respected by the market.
But mathematics is always the same. 1+1 was 2 80 years ago and it will still be the same 80 years from now.

1 Like

What is the logic behind your research and what is the conclusion of why these math patterns work other than the fact that the math says so?

I have a theory but it’s pretty outrageous and I prefer to keep it to myself. The logic behind the method was that the old and classic methods do not work properly. There aren’t enough profitable ones or they provide too little profit, that is if they don’t lead you to losing your account.

1 Like

That’s not what I meant by logic. I already know that these methods don’t work. About that theory, by saying it is “outrageous”, do you mean that you simply wanna keep it a secret or you are afraid people here may think you are talking nonsense? If it’s the latter, please PM me your theory. I’m pretty open minded.

I’ll explain. I believe that this is a market that is perfectly manipulated and controlled, in which retail traders have nothing to say. There are many examples that support my claim when I say that it’ s perfectly manipulated. For example, the USD/CHF drop a few years ago, when it reached 0.80 and no one knew what the problem was. It was then proven that the chief of the SNB was manipulating the market and if I recall correctly, he also did prison time for this.

There are more such examples, but the idea is that using the patterns that I discovered , I believe that I can identify the position in the market of the “smart money” players.
For example, we take my last trade. A few weeks before ECB, a event expected by the whole market since January: I think that it’s impossible that someone wouldn’t know what will happen in March, and who wouldn’t benefit from such informations if he would have them?
Therefore, someone (not a person or group but rather a group of entities like big banks,hedge funds,private investors,etc) positioned himself LONG in the market since February, but not in a obvious manner (making candles of 100 pips). There was a gradual buying, a accumulation. Then, the mathematical pattern emerged.

A ECB event which after all the technical and fundamental clues of the ECB and the Fed was supposed to make the market drop, has made it surge upwards, a fact which has permitted the closure of the trades at the intended take profit target.
In 12 years of trading, I learnt something: thinking outside the box. That’s what gives me a edge above the others.
For example, a lot of my past colleagues have been saying that it’s not okay to have a negative risk/reward ratio for the trades (meaning 150 pips profit and 375 stop loss).
They believed that the risk/reward ratio always had to be positive, but it’s simply not true.
If you think outside the box, you can observe that the risk/reward approach is wrong.
So thinking outside the box shows you new paths which you wouldn’t believe you will find.

I know that many will say that I’m talking nonsense and that the market is not manipulated, that the pattern idea is a aberation, but it works since the first trade taken on a live account. What to say about 16 years of rigurous backtesting. Knowing what makes this method tick, I strongly believe that it is very profitable. That’s why I gave up any other method and I only apply this one. I have other methods as well,EAs, but I don’t use those because they aren’t nearly as good as the daily method.

back test results with 5%/trade - 16 years period

The 7% backtest has a total netprofit of 1,314,800 $ and a drawdown of 47,67%.