Crude Oil Daily - Might be a good week for Oil. I’ll be watching this support area for buy opportunities:
However, you can’t ignore the monthly chart and the fact that price bounced off a previous swing high:
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I find this to be a valid chart pattern that I trade frequently. 
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Lol, if you don’t plan for this then you shouldn’t be trading.
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Good looking charts though. Hopefully a good week of trading is ahead.
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OANDA must be glitching or something. There’s been no movement on any of my charts yet today. It’s like the market hasn’t opened yet, so no idea how my open trades are doing. That’s never happened before.
It’s been slow on my end as well. But Japan also has a bank holiday.
But I’ve had price move.
Nice recommendations
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AUDCAD 4H - I’m watching to see what price does around the blue resistance zone:
It has bounced off once already, but I’m hesitant to get in because it’s at the bottom of this channel on the Daily chart:
I will probably wait and take my buy/sell signal off the daily chart. If it closes above that SR then I’ll buy, but I want to wait to see it move out of that channel before selling.
Corn looks like a sell so far on the daily chart, price can’t seem to break through that R area:
I will wait for today’s candle to close first before I pull the trigger.
I like trading Natural Gas too. I also trade BOIL/KOLD too sometimes. The range since it exploded has been nuts. Guess how much 1 contract costs now on Thinkorswim? freaking over $13K!! that’s US Futures
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I’ve been testing out a hedging strategy that @BlueFalcon posted on another thread a week or so ago. You can watch the video here.
His claims by following this strategy:
Ok, we’ve all heard this before, but this strategy intrigued me because it made a bit of sense. Since I love playing around with different hedging strategies I thought I’d give it a go on a smaller scale (10,000 units instead of full lots).
While his claim of 100% success rate does seem possible, it’s difficult and if you deviate from the strategy in any way, you will lose money. This might be worth automating because if you miss an entry then the whole thing is shot, so you have to stay on top of it.
The idea is to open a trade in your preferred direction with a 20 pip SL and a 60 pip TP. Then open a buy order going the opposite direction, but increase your quantities by 1.33 (10,000 x 1.33 = 13,000…with the exception of trades 3 & 4 which is shown in the picture at the bottom). Make sure to remove the SL on the first trade so that it doesn’t close out on you if price picks up trade #2. Then put another TP at 60 pips (again, trade #2 will now be hedging #1, except more like a martingale).
If trade #1 hits your TP then you’re all good, no hedging involved. But, if the trade turns around on you (which NEVER happens) it will pick up your sell order, or trade #2. If trade #2 continues down to it’s TP, then you’ve made a small amount (yes, small).
Now, if price starts ranging you could end up with 7, 8, even 9 trades open, each one x1.33 larger than the last one. If you have the patience and margin to cover all these trades then you’re golden, you may never lose! However, once the trade turns around the first time, your profits going forward are very little, you are basically just protecting that trade from loss.
For me, this is not worth the time and margin you need for most of these trades to play out, unless of course you have unlimited funds, then I might continue it. But IMO it’s best just to place a trade, accept the loss and move on to the next trade. But that just my opinion.
Happy trading!
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I found others videos in regards to the same strategy, especially from one trader : in one of the video of this last he stated that he doesn’t use a stop losses,…I assume he trades with a large fund. As I previously stated the size of the fund could be one of the main difference between bankers and independent traders in term of trading strategy.
With this strategy you cannot follow your trading plan especially in regards of stop losses, % of your account to trade.
Correct. SL’s would invalidate the entire strategy. With hedging you’re replacing the SL with a trade in the opposite direction (hedge, or counter-trade), at the same price you would normally put your SL.
The only reason I mentioned a SL in my post was to show the R:R I was using. Once the counter order was placed then the SL was removed.
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It’s been a while posting here, but I have a good reason.
I have been testing and revising this hedging strategy. I have been running it using the DOW. It requires a lot of attention and a lot of capital, but if successful, should guarantee a minimum 1% return on each trade. I will try to explain:
This chart shows the strategy as well as the results in advance. Starting at the top:
- “200/600” is my SL/TP levels.
- “DOW” is the instrument I’m trading.
- “1.5” is the multiplier I’m using when opening each trade, as well as the number of trades opened. For example, if DOW ranges and I open 8 trades, I will have a total of 17.7 positions open. This is the amount of capital I’m allowing for each trade. This would be rare as 4-5 trades is usually max.
- “A” is irrelevant here.
- “Accum” is the accumulation of my running position sizes, which is important to track my margin.
The bottom half of this chart tracks each trade I open, “TP”, “SL” and “Total” when the trade runs its full course (less financing fees). Example: if I open 5 trades (3 long, 2 short) and the trade runs its course they would all be closed simultaneously with a profit of $512.00.
Here are my current running trades. I will post the strategy later because I’m out of time here and would like to include charts to help understand the process:
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Alright, here’s my attempt to post this strategy as simply as possible:
Step 1 open L&S positions simultaneously with TP and L&S orders set at 200 pts both ways:
Fast forward 5 candles, price goes down 200 pts and triggers my TP and Sell Order:
We have successfully locked in 200 pts on the original short trade.
Now we have a new short trade at 1.5 units, hedging the open long position (1 unit). Manually close all other pending orders so you’re just left with these 2 open trades:
Now for both open positions, set your TP at 600 pts and your SL at 800 pts. The TP & SL should both be at the same price levels so they close at the same time. I have a space in between just for visual purposes:
You must stay 1 step ahead at all times and have the next L or S order set up, with the same parameters as your current running positions . Fast forward and price turns around to trigger this order:
Now set up your next S order.
Alas, price comes back down to trigger this one. Now set up your next Buy order:
Then finally, price drops 600+ pts to complete your trade:
This trade would have opened 4 positions and run from the 10th to the 19th. You would have made the original $255 + the $256 (shown on table below) less financing & swap fees of approx $130 = $381.00, bagging 1.5%. This doesn’t sound like much, but if you get 2 or 3 trades going and close just 1 per week with an average of 1% profit, then you’re growing your account by 52% annually.
This is all speculation for now, and this all depends on not screwing up, which obviously is quite easy to do because all it would take is to sleep in and miss one entry, then that trade could set you back a bit.
But I plan to continue to run this as long as it’s showing an average of at least 1% per trade.
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nice to see the Indices moving again isn’t it? lol
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Still trading this strategy, with a few modifications. 2 weeks on the books, here are the results so far:
Very promising but a bit of work because these trades need to be monitored 24/7. I have reached out to a couple different companies for quotes on automating this.
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Week 3 on the books…
Not bad. It will pay for my EA, which I am very excited about. It should be ready to install and test next week sometime.
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How much are you paying for the EA? It’s not a hard thing to code…