Matty’s Money - Trades, Ideas and Info

Just under $500 USD. I’m sure it’s not hard if you know what you’re doing, but I don’t have a clue about these things so I’ll happily outsource it. To me it is a good investment which will pay for itself many times over.

Wow, I don’t know the entirety of what you’ve asked for, but I bet it could be coded in a few hours, especially with the libraries of code they already have. I’d do it for a lot less if I had the time.

Exactly. But for $500 you might find the time :wink:

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Commodities are expected to continue increasing…according to Goldman & Sachs.

“Despite an environment of slowing economic growth, fading fiscal support and hawkish pivots by central banks, commodity prices across the board — ranging from oil and metals, to grains, corn and soybeans — are surging. The drivers stem from a supply and demand imbalance that’s likely to persist even in the face of slowing economic growth, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research in Goldman Sachs Research”

We cover 27 commodities that go into the index,” Currie explains to host Allison Nathan. “Every single one of them is in a deficit. Inventory is declining — near critical operating levels. And high, spiky prices with steep levels of backwardation…That is telling you you’re out of this stuff.”

Here’s Oil on the weekly chart. This is no surprise, it now costs me $140.00 to fill up my gas tank:

Gold has had a good run as well. Will we see new all-time highs this summer?

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I just want to say that after the events of last week with Russia and Ukraine, all of this (EA & trading) seems so trivial, and a brutal reminder of what’s really important in this life.

I cry for the Ukrainian people and their pets who are suffering and struggling to escape. Thankfully, many neighboring countries have opened their arms to receive them in this time of need. For many it’s too late.

Out of consideration and respect for what’s happening, and for what’s really important I won’t be posting an update here this week.

My sincerest thoughts are with Ukraine and all of Europe in this difficult time.

Matty

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That’s an understatement. Wheat is probably the most extreme example the last few days if anyone’s watching it:

Could be a while before they come back down, so expect to pay even more for your groceries :frowning:

“Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports combined—and the two countries are particularly important suppliers to the Middle East, North Africa and Asia—but the ongoing conflict has raised fears of global shortages and rising food prices.”

Wheat prices surge

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AUDNZD - This pair has probably been one of the most reliable pairs for me over the past few months. Volitile, but fairly predictable. You just need a wide SL:

You can see what I mean by looking at the monthly chart:

Here’s the weekly chart. Let’s see how far down we can ride this:

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USDJPY Monthly - Up, up and away! Price has now reached the same level it did back in 2017 when it reversed. Of course, that doesn’t always mean anything, but it’s worth paying attention to:

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USDCAD Daily - Hell of a week for the CAD. Price broke out of this pattern of HL’s:

Long term I’m looking at this support/demand area as a target on the weekly chart:

Price moves up and down, and tends to create channels. Always look at the bigger picture and trade what you see:

SPX 500 Daily - Here are just 3 different scenarios this could play out:

There will be some good opportunities to buy this dip in the near future.

GBPCAD Weekly - An observation.

This is the 4th substantial drop in price in the last 5 years for this pair. Each time price recovered nicely, so once this bottoms out, somewhere at the blue zone according to my TA, I’ll be looking for buying opportunities.

I’m liking AUDCHF on the weekly chart. I’ll be looking for short opportunities on this pair.

Rammstein - Zeit

Excellent song from Rammstein’s new album.

Are we on the brink of change? Monthly SR levels are starting to line up everywhere:

I guess we will see.

I guess it’s hard to say. Maybe for now we’ll see a bounce, but it seems very likely that a recession is coming and there will be a lot more selling with that.

Are you still trading your EA?

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All this doom and gloom talk will probably spark the opposite, lol. The market always knows before we do.

Yes, in fact I just shut it down last week after a decent 2 week continuous run. I’m trading Russ, Oil, USCA, and AUUS. Ive increased the range from 20/60 to 30/90. I start small with 2000 units so there’s less chance of my margin getting eaten up.

I shut it down because my laptop needed to reboot, And took a hit on the last trade, AUUS was up to 32,000 units when I closed it. I think I made about $150 in total regardless.

I will keep running it, but it’s not really a big moneymaker.

**edit - 30/90, not 40/120

Yep, whatever I think is going to happen, the opposite does. So get your buys in now haha.

Nice. Been a lot of direction in the markets, so that would work well for it the last few weeks. I might give it another run whilst I’m in work and can’t watch the screen.

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Something important to consider, which I’m sure you already have as we’ve been through this in great detail, is margin. The longer you can let this run, the better your chances of getting out safely.

Unlimited funds would mean very little risk, provided each trade was opened seamlessly.

My strategy doesn’t involve hedging, it closes the position then opens a new one in the opposite direction, so while the losses accumulate, I look at them like drawdown.

If I focused on the symbols that used the least amount of margin, I would look at Oil ($202/100 units), Russ ($240/1 unit), and USDCAD ($257/10,000 units). Depending on your country and your broker this will vary.

This chart tells me everything I need to know about risk for this strategy (but doesn’t include fees):

Based on this, a $4k account could open and close 15 trades, then basically break even if that trade ran 90 pips. So, the question is would it ever run for 15 trades? And how do you back test this?

As I said earlier, I ran this for the last 2 weeks or so, using 4 different accounts, successfully. The last trade I closed prematurely which was at 37,000 units and on its 11th trade. When I checked on it later in the day it would have gone well beyond it’s TP (naturally).

On the flip side, if margin ran out after the 15th trade, you’ll take a $1350 hit, wiping out the last 50 or so trades. So it’s definitely worthwhile figuring out the max number of trades you might need, if that’s even possible.

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Some excellent life advice:

10 bad habits holding you back from your potential:

  1. Complaining Incessantly: Complaining never got anyone anywhere worth going. The world is split between complainers and doers—the former talk while the latter act.

  2. Falling Into Productivity Traps: Hustle culture lied to you. Obsessively optimizing your time with new “productive” activities is actually counter-productive. Free time is a call option on future interesting opportunities.

  3. Saying Yes to Everything: The ability to say no is a superpower of successful people. Be deliberate about what you spend your time on—and who you spend it with.

  4. Glorifying the Wrong Things: What I used to glorify: No sleep, 100-hour workweeks, Busy schedules. What I now glorify: Sleeping 8 hours, Regular physical activity, Unstructured schedules, Working in short sprints.

  5. Taking Everyone’s Advice: You’re going to get a lot of advice from a lot of people. Most of it is well-intentioned…and also utter crap. It’s dangerous to use someone else’s map to navigate your world. Learn to filter and selectively implement—take the signal, skip the noise.

  6. Defaulting to a Jog: There are four speeds in life: Rest, Walk, Jog, Sprint. Most people default to a jog—a staple of 9-5 work culture. But you’ll go much faster and further by defaulting to either rest/walk or sprint. Rest, walk, sprint, repeat. There is no jog.

  7. Wanting to Be Right: Finding the truth is much more important than being right. The most successful people legitimately enjoy being wrong. Instead of arguing your position—ask great questions. Learn to embrace new information as “software updates" that improve upon the old.

  8. Viewing the World as Zero Sum: Zero sum thinkers are the worst. Want to get ahead in life? Start genuinely rooting for others to succeed. When one of us wins, we all win—winning spreads. If you adopt that mentality, you’ll become a magnet for the highest quality people.

  9. Focusing on Money: Money is a byproduct of the value you create. Create value, receive value. If you focus on creating immense value for the people you work with, you’ll find a way to make money. Create value—then create leverage to scale the value you can create.

  10. Multitasking: Multitasking is fake productivity. You think you’re crushing it but you’re just running around churning out a bunch of C+ work. Instead, build your day around focused sprints. 60 minutes works well. Compartmentalize and focus on the one key task at hand.

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