Background - USDJPY sold sharply from 111.4 May 3rd to 109.7 May 10th and has since stabilized around that price, accumulating. In the past 2 weeks the USD has been selling mildly in some minor pairs as well as against the EUR while being bought against CAD and AUD. In other words the USD has been broadly trading flat while the AUD sold and JPY bought in the past few weeks. This offers an opportunity to take advantage of USDJPY sells taking profits by selling the JPY in a hedge with a duration of 1-6 weeks.
1-6 Week JPY Sell Hedge Pairs (In Order Of Allocation)
Strategy - option to double down once per pair
Lot size equals X
It is May 17th, 2 days into this thread and trade idea.
GBPJPY quote is 139.90, 0.7% lower than the first quote. It’s an adequate time/price to double the GBPJPY X-3 position creating a price average of 140.50. The profit target continues as 143.25, now 1.9% (rather than the originally posted 1.6%) higher than the average price of 140.50.
Today is May 22nd, 7 days into this thread and the quote below is from the original thread.
Tuesday, 6 days into this trade idea CADJPY narrowly hit the originally posted target of 82.5 (quoted 82.52 May 21st) which means it’s closed for a 1.1% difference.
All of the rest of the positions remain outstanding with the intended duration of 6 weeks having become 5 weeks.
CADJPY renew buy: It’s time/price to renew the CADJPY buy position quoted today at 81.35 and yet again targeting 82.5 for a 1.4% difference because the CADJPY has pulled below the originally posted quote of 81.53. Reminder that the CADJPY was the only target completed from this thread thus far.
SGDJPY double position: It’s time/price to renew the SGDJPY buy position quoted today at 79.43 creating a new price average of 79.73 for a revised 1.9% difference from the target which continues to be 81.25.
Recent Japanese Yen price/action background: the Japanese Yen has surged broadly against the majors and especially against the US Dollar offering even more favorable prices to increase positions in the short-Yen hedge.
JPY short hedge duration of 1-6 weeks has expired prompting review for an extension. The Japanese Yen didn’t begin pulling back until 4 weeks after this thread was created. Downside potential remains and no contrary signals have occurred to cause reason for doubt about this position.
I’m extending this trade/thread for another 2-12 weeks as short JPY prospects appear greater now than when this trade/thread was created on May 15th, 7 weeks ago. The draw down hasn’t been alarming short the JPY in this time-frame.
EURJPY closed target 123, barely, on July 1st from quote 121.566 June 20th for a 1.1% difference. This was a separate target from the original at the threads start which was 123.75 (has yet to be achieved).
BUY CHFJPY X-2 (the contrary position that acted as a hedge) didn’t quite make it to target of 107.75. Time to close from quote 109.55 from the initial quote on May 15th of 108.56 for a difference of 1% (loss).
October 16th, a week beyond the intended duration.
JPY bearish performance since previous post July 9th was favorable as expectations.
Previous aggregate balance profit/loss was posted +7.9%, this figure is to be added to the new figure.
GBPJPY exceeded 139 but didn’t quite make the 140 target from June 9th quote 135.69. +7%. -5% from previous section GBPJPY quotes 140.98 with failed 143.25 target. Overall ~+2%.
AUDJPY 73.42 quote from initial 75.92. ~-6%
SGDJPY quote 79.29 from initial 80.03 ~-4%
EURJPY 120.25 quote from initial 122. -~2%
USDJPY quote 108.65 from initial 109.54. ~-1%.
I realize this was very sloppy and inoperative for months. Certainly hampered utility of the thread… Aggregate estimated net profit +7%.