Mondeoman Fast Track Trading Journal

Hi,

MONDEOMAN FAST TRACK TRADING JOURNAL - not what you may think.

Some of you may recall that I have been hanging around here for the last few months, but was also a member nearly a decade ago. After loss making efforts in FTSE100 share trading and Forex trading in 2010 and 2011, followed after a gap by another foray into Sports Betting, I decided to approach Forex again in the latter half of last year prompted by three events in my life.

The first in 2018 was the passing away of my father, who was one of those Dad’s to die for. I never grieved his passing. I just thought of all the beautiful times we had spent together despite a long time being physically separated since I left school. In his last couple of years he retired to a single flat about 1/2 mile from our home. I would proudly walk him to the bookies, and the bookmaker would say “Oh hell, here comes Bill. He’s brought his bodyguard with him”. I drive a Merc but still think Mondeos are the best car ever manufactured - you know - fit for purpose without breaking the bank, and fine for an inverted snob from “Up North”). “If it’s more than a grand you’ve won I don’t have that much cash”. You see, my Dad lived and breathed horses, but did not suffer fools gladly. So he took his Racing Post form secrets to the grave.

I may share anecdotes if encouraged to do so, but I am mindful you are here to learn, so I will not force them upon you.

Anther event in 2019 was that I had occasion at work (contract management IT consultant) to initiate a programme of robotic process automation of business processes using a proprietary tool from one of the large global consultancies, after a transition of services to their East European offshore location. My mind swiftly returned to 2011 when I had convinced myself that I had “an incompatible psychology with that of a successful trader”, and vowed to cease interest in the subject unless I could find a methodology that excluded my interference once I had “pushed the button” on the trade entry. Preferably, I would have a robot do that for me but I was already knowledgeable about the good and bad practices and results from HFT (high frequency trading) and was amazed as a telecoms consultant that this was all about latency, and getting a few nanoseconds closer to the Exchanges in which the financial transactions occur meant the difference between an edge and no edge. By the way, I do not condone HFT since it is exactly the "big business raising the barriers to entry that I so despise in global business. I plan to automate, but the jury is still out whether I will maintain a watchful human eye over any other than binary decisions (in our out of market) and leave all that other stuff to a machine time frame.

The third event was that I read the book Super-forecasting, which reminded me so much in its content of that work done by Tharp in helping professional traders with their Psychology, but also with a deeper understanding of what is involved in the mindset and consequent actions of a budding successful trader.

So that was my decision to re-enter Forex as a passion, but also as a potential future stream of income. And recently, it was the final placement of my father’s headstone on his wife’s family grave (don’t ask why it took two years to get this done) that made me realize that my pride in the life of my father could only be bettered by saying a silent thank you to him for being such a wonderful influence on my life, and something I could discuss with him when you have those inevitable conversations with yourself - whether it is your alter-ego or your actual father, it doesn’t matter.

Two weeks ago, I was writing my Terms of Reference (an unfortunate habit formed by being a Project Manager for a living), for Forex Trading as an adjunct to a recently and similarly written document that spelled out a 2020 to 2025 long term investment plan in Crypto-currencies. Part of the reason to revisit Forex was a fascination in the short side of Crypto, but in my mind shorting an underlying asset is alien to “investment” but sure could be handy for the new Crypto, and also for the not-so-new precious metal long term and very boring holding (kidding really).

So as part of a lessons learned review from 2011/2012 and from 2014/2015 for Sports Betting, I looked into the decisions taken at the time and realized that those decisions did not make sense in the cold light of day. Though in both instances we were not achieving our goals (we had less money, not more money), we had nowhere near broken the bank, and with the benefit of hindsight, I realized that I really should have persevered and sought a slowing down of expectations and a continuous improvement cycle to identify WHY we could not demonstrate an “edge”. For sure, the results were negative, but for the last 150 out of around 400 trades, the system expectancy had become pretty close to zero. At the time I saw this as a failure, but now I see it as an opportunity. So realizing that it was now going to take me at least 3 to 6 months to get into serious back testing of algorithm ideas (I am following the NoNonesenseForex method), after completing (this time) all the School of Pipsology including quizzes and all the 130 or so remaining NNFX videos, I took a decision (it’s called Agile framework) to run a Sports Betting back test on some historical data I have, and a forward demo account (Excel simulation) of around 100 historical cases on what is remarkably similar to the “Algorithm” that VP talks about in his NNFX approach. It is a baseline, two confirmatory indicators, an entry that satisfies rules, a management and an exit plan, mostly preset depending on written rules.

It is this system that I am going to provide a “Journal Journey” for. I will post my first 40 trades (in 10 days) next

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I AM TOO IMPATIENT

Still learning to try to slow myself down, I spent three nights on a row up till after 6am completing and refining a back testing spreadsheet that outputs results I already know. Why did I do that? It was to know that I knew what I was doing with the raw data from 1,500 sets of horse racing data that I had in my old system. I never throw anything digital away. When I have a major new subject to concentrate on, I give it a sequential job number. In the UK, which includes all my contract jobs for the past twenty years, this just happens to be job 292 (from 2014). So I just create a new folder within that data repository and pick up from where I left off. Sometimes very useful. Rule 101 - Never dispose of your data - you never know when you may reuse it. Anyway, it only took me 3 days to compete 1,500 data sets, and sharpened my absent skills on Excel data manipulation. I started some live data and just before I wrote this journal, I looked back over a list of “50 habits of successful traders”, one of which I found to be about periodic review - on the topic of identification and reduction of “mistakes”. A mistake is defined as an event that resulted in an outcome that the documented Strategy and Plan did not plan as an outcome. Mistakes can be positive (you are lucky for the wrong reasons) and can be negative (you suffer financial loss from them.

So I have entered 40 trades in 10 days since 11Jul2020, and below is the initial few days of equity that many of you will recognize as being applicable to Forex trades. The graph should speak for itself, but just in case it doesn’t please do ask questions I will be glad to answer on method, process and procedure.

In this Agile iteration of ONE strategy, where the object is win or loss on horse racing results to a documented Algorithm, not win or loss on Forex pairs to a documented Algorithm, I am satisfied that one represents the other, and that I will be able to replicate the historical 1,500 data set into another automated spreadsheet kindly donated on a forum by others with which I can prove its intended output functions by ensuring all the outputs are the same as those for my spread bet Excel sheet.

The bank is described as £2,000. Of this amount, £250 has been transferred into two bookmaker accounts and £1,750 is sitting in a bullion investment account in GBP where it is earmarked for this Forex-related trading strategy, and can be moved to use within 3 working days. This is a super-cautious approach of 1/2% of bank per trade whereas I need to have sufficient “real data” before moving to a theoretical 2% of bank per trade if my future back-testing of enough results shows me a three sigma (99.8% probability) that it will not ruin a bank. Meantime, and notably:

I have made SYSTEM MISTAKES three times in 40 trades, for which I am declaring my “system efficiency” as 37/40 or 92.5% efficient.
The first mistake was hilarious. I will number the trades from 1 to 40. The first was #14, resulting from me backing a horse TWICE - once with each of two bookmakers, for an unintended additional £100 profit. They say that luck is a fine lady.
The second mistake was to be expected. This was #16. My algorithm told me to take odds as early as possible where the bookies match or exceed those odds, but to wait till just before the race starts to enter the trade at the starting price if I have not been successful to obtain at least the system odds. The horse won, but I had no bet on. Arrrgggghhhhhh. This is greed, and trying to push what should already be a system with an edge to one with a bigger edge. Or trying to walk before I can run. That cost me 3.1% of bank, or £62 for a £10 stake.
The third mistake was for the same reason for the second. This was # 37, and by not ensuring the bet was on before the start of the race, it cost me 3.4% of bank, or £68 for a £11 stake.
Three mistakes added up to +5.0% - 3.1% - 3.4% = -1.5% or £30 and profit to date is £74.24 or 3.7% and a £100 Bet365 new customer offer for the £100 I already lost using their service (winners to date on the Betfair account)

What I have been able to do with real world data and confidence in the high starting efficiency of this Strategy I thought would take me weeks. But my previous familiarity with both bookies sites, which haven’t changed in years, has helped me a lot in coping with not so many new aspects all at the same time.

More importantly, I feel so comfortable with following the plan that is so far incomplete, my mindset is in a completely different psychological space.

Don’t get me wrong. I still fear creating the Algorithm, setting up a real and meaningful back test that will start manually but that may be swiftly automated as I gain confidence in a subject matter I used to do by hand in the late 1970s as a engineering trainee, and can now do quite well in Excel whilst learning what statistics means in reality. It is an enjoyable journey for only a few days and I look forward to reporting when the next two weeks of data arrive.

By the way I have no way to mathematically prove this - it is an extract from the book “How To Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar” but the number of trades I need to simulate to have a (rho) value of 0.01 (a 1% statistical significance) are 683, and for a 0.1% 1,205. At the rate of discovery of events that satisfy the current algorithm it is about 100 events per month which will take around six months to know whether this is luck or edge, to within 1% and just over a year to know within 0.1%. I would be grateful for any comments about the usefulness of this rho calculation and what I can do with the historical data and with the new live data to predict, whether at 0.5% of bank or at 2% of bank, what the likelihood is that the bank can be drawn down to a -50% and a -75% level. I am still just a script kiddie on this journey.

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Update after two weeks. Two more mistakes identified, one cancelling the other out in terms of profit and loss.
Now 90 trades completed.

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Journey Journal –one month after start.
Hi Journal.
It is only four days since the last post, but a lot has changed. Yesterday, I read a short document from Kevin Davey – a seasoned stock and index trader, which resonated with my own situation over the past two months. It is the Big Secret Trading Success 2020 – an 18 page .pdf file (freely available)
A bit of a tongue in cheek document that proceeds to tell you what the big secret IS NOT. The conclusion, with an eloquent example, is that not putting all your eggs in one basket is the secret, and that trading diversity should be the main plank of your portfolio strategy.
That resonates with me because it is not specific, is based broadly on the advice in BabyPips to become your own system creator, and is also in line with the NNFX philosophy of finding your own indicators and sticking to a documented trading plan – the less fluffy the better. It also ensures that if and when systems cease to be edge positive (market has changed), you are not left hanging out to dry.
I awoke early this morning and spent about five hours entering 1,100 data sets into an Excel spreadsheet of historical data of back test performance for my “sports betting” diversion from the main task of Forex development of my system. I have added a screen shot of the output results. Whilst I do not pretend to understand all of the tabular output, it has delivered to me the intended outcome to allow me to move on and make some decisions about where I am with the systems and where I wish to be in three months, and in six months. Generally, when I am able to write sufficiently SMART actions that together achieve an output consistent with a plan, I am firmly on my way to completion.

So where does this lead in my journal journey?
Diversification, whilst accelerating progress of the first component – the sports betting which now has over 100 trades to its name and is about to complete the first month on 10Aug2020.

Gold and silver reached their all time high in USD terms this week, and it is an opportune moment to remind myself that we have been very lucky in our past to accumulate gold at prices between $250 and $1,300 an ounce over a period of nearly 30 years. Now it is around $2,000 an ounce, the majority of it will stay where it is but some of it will be released for crypto investment, crypto trading and Forex trading. Since the back tested results from sports betting show we can double our funds staked without breaking the bank (monte carlo simulation outputs shown in this post), the “trading” contribution to our future income shall be diversified into four components:
1 Sports betting (free of income tax)
2 Crypto trading – strategy and plan yet to be detailed, but the longer-term objective will be a doubling of return on investment from the Crypto investment goal. Put another way, the shorter-term gains from trading Crypto currencies (whether leveraged or not) will be the same as the longer term gains from the long term investments. Subject to capital gains tax, but gains will not be taxed up to 45% of expected annual living costs so tax burden is considered minimal.

3 Forex trading – Detailed trading plan yet to be developed but back testing and demo account testing will be done before go live to ensure that an edge can be identified and demonstrated to be sufficiently robust as to commit funds to the cause.
4 Not identified. As the journey progresses with components 1, 2 and 3, there will undoubtedly be another compelling case that the trading strategy and plans developed for 1, 2 and 3 can and will be reused. Component 4 may be a “do nothing” option if 1, 2 and 3 achieve the overall goals of

The updated “NNFX method” algorithm using sports betting as an early example of how management information will be maintained.
8Aug2020 Crypto investment MI.pdf (146.3 KB) 8Aug2020 Sports betting 102 trades.pdf (222.6 KB) J292 simulated 1100 data sets Monte Carlo simulator 2500 iterations.pdf (253.5 KB)

The Monte Carlo analysis of 1,100 data sets. The first 100 real time trades return 12.2% with mistakes identified that would have given a perfect return of an additional 6.7%. Cautiously optimistic here.

The updated “management information” tile set up for Crypto investment and which will be used to monitor and progress the Crypto Trading component. It has been an extremely good week for anyone invested in Crypto. This numerical performance is not expected to continue, but the early results are ahead of plan by a factor of two.

Found it! Thanks for sharing! :pray:

Whoa FIVE hours.

You think we’ve reached peak gold bull? :open_mouth:

No, not at all. My personal view is that gold is headed to $2,400 an ounce end of this year, and between $3,000 and $5,000 end of 2021. Just my opinion. We have been gold fans since 1988

Journal Journey #4 12Aug20

Hi Journal,
You have been at this gee gees malarkey for exactly one month – 31 days, and on the last day, you got two winners. Congratulations, you are up 20% in one month. Do you feel clever? No. Do you feel happy? Yes. Have you learnt anything? Yes. Lots.

So what decisions have you made with this pilot on your way to developing and proving an edge?
Lessons learned.
1 Trying to estimate added value added by getting the stakes on early (the night before) is actually out of scope of this pilot. Keep it simple, stupid. Don’t try to out-think a simple concept.
2 Trust the maths. You have back tested the required number of results to have a 99.8% probability that this is an edge, not just a lucky streak. You have piloted over 100 stakes with a maximum drawdown on bank of 5% and a one-month profit of 20% using ½% stakes.
3 The Monte Carlo analysis has shown, for a bank of £2,000 and stakes of 1%, there is a 4% chance of ruin (90% drawdown of bank) but for a £3,000 bank that chance is 1%.
4 The median profit is showing as £6,000 (three times the bank).
5 The return to drawdown ratio is between 7 (with a £3k bank) and 8 (with a 2K bank)
6 You were comfortable with 26 consecutive losses during the initial pilot. You must be comfortable to continue expecting 50 consecutive losses. Your plan acknowledges this and reverts to ½% staking after 35 consecutive losses.
Actions.
Stakes have been doubled from ½% to 1% and shall remain at that level of commitment until either there is a 30% drawdown on actual bank, or there is a doubling of initial bank (to £4,000).
You must be prepared for this to happen within a month or take more than a year without deviating from the plan.12Aug2020 Sports betting 108 trades.pdf (223.7 KB)

Shoot. Gotta be raking in the $$$ at this point!

Well we can’t quite retire but I have a few pieces bought about six or seven years ago that we will be selling, and redirecting the funds to crypto currencies. On an approximate basis, those pieces have gone up about 80% which sounds like a lot, but it is about 6% or 7% per year. I remember my mother getting 7% a year on Post Office bonds about a decade ago. Most people would bite your arm off these days for “risk free” returns of 7%. However, since I have calculated our own family inflation rate to be 6.5% to 7.5% per year over the past ten years, there is no real gain, and there is no real loss. By the way, never believe published inflation figures. They are meaningless to each person. If you do not smoke, drink or drive your inflation rate will be far different than if you smoke, drink and drive. Input costs vary hugely. :slight_smile:

Shoo I’d be happy with 5! :laughing:

Interesting! What about food though or like housing costs? Also how do you calculate your family’s inflation rate? Sounds pretty involved!

I sort out costs into mandatory, discretionary, saving and charitable contribution and assign % to each. One example of categories is below.

A/C CODE DESCRIPTION
CONSULTING DIVIDEND
CONSULTING SALARIES
TOTAL
10 ROLLUP
11 CAR LEASE MERC C180
12 CAR LOAN FORD FIESTA
13 SOLAR 4kWp LOAN
14 MORTG REDUCTION LOAN
15 BANK CHARGES AND INTEREST
16 CREDIT CARD INTEREST
17 PERSONAL INCOME TAX
20 ROLLUP
21 MORTGAGE
22 BLDG & CONTENT INSURANCE
23 GROUND RENT
24 COUNCIL TAX
25 GARDENING / WINDOW CLEAN
26 CCTV
30 ROLLUP
31 BOILER INSURANCE
32 GAS
33 ELECTRIC
34 WATER
35 TELEPHONE & INTERNET
36 HOUSEHOLD GOODS
37 HOUSEHOLD HELP
40 ROLLUP
41 DENTAL COST
42 MEDICAL COST
43 HEALTH CLUB
44 HEALTH INSURANCE
50 ROLLUP
51 FOOD & CLEANING MATLS
52 CLOTHES
53 EDUCATION
54 ENTERTAINMENT
55 TV
56 TRAVEL
57 CIGS
58 PETS
60 ROLLUP
61 LEGAL AND PROFESSIONAL
62 CAR TAX
63 CAR INSURANCE
64 CAR FUEL
65 CAR SERVICE
66 CAR CLEANING
67 BYOD, SOFTWARE
68
70 ROLLUP
71
72
ROLLUP
MANDATORY
DISCRETIONARY
TARGET H2 2016

Dayum that is DETAILED!

Also is cigs cigarette? Why does it have its own category? :sweat_smile:

Yes, it’s cigarettes, and it has its own category because it was large, at times more than the mortgage payments. I quit nearly 4 years ago, so it dropped to 40% of its peak. As a matter of personal inflation I also referred to in here, I smoked at school and one pack was £0.30. At Uni, they were £0.50 per pack. 42 years later, they are £9 per pack (£12 if you like Marlboro Lights). So 50p to £12 in 42 years is 24X or 2,400% inflation. That is a compound inflation of 7.860% per year. It is on cigarettes, house mortgage cost, food cost, fuel and about 10 other items that our personal cost of annual inflation has been calculated. In the 1990s it was just over 7% per year. In the noughties it was actually lower at 6.5% per year. I have not calculated it from 2010 to 2020. Will do so in another couple of years. Bottom line - if you think you are getting better off, you have to subtract 7% per year from your net asset growth just to tread water. Happy days. I think Jeff Bezos just about scraped by. He is 40 billion dollars better off this year, and after he paid his ex about 30 billion in amicable divorce settlement.

Holy cow what. I’m so happy to hear you’ve quit!!! And wow that 2,400% inflation is crazy. Not sure whether my health or my wallet would be the reason I’ll quit at that point.

Oh how tough he must have it :laughing:

Good luck if you’re not getting better off! :sob:

Journal Journey #5 27Aug20

Hi Journal,

It’s the six week mark of the Forex trading proxy trial (horse racing proxy based on Monte Carlo simulation of back tested results for 1,100 trades, and a five year total backtest history).

Do you feel clever? No. Do you feel happy? Yes and No. Have you learnt anything? Most definitely.

Lessons learned. Now we are in negative territory having suffered 32 consecutive losses with the first loss occurring exactly at the point of deciding (as per written plan) to double the stakes per event. Since then, we have incurred 32 losses, 3 cancelled events (stakes returned) and four non-runners (stakes returned) for a total number of events since the last trade win of 39.

Is this according to the plan? Yes.

Have I tweaked the plan? No.

Why am I happy? Because the results are still within the plan parameters which call for a maximum losing streak of 49 consecutive losses.

Why am I not happy? Because I am feeling psychologically impacted by the size of the losing streak, even though I committed to the plan without deviation from plan parameters for a minimum of 800 trades.

Drawdown is now 14%. Plan median drawdown is 36.5%. I remind myself that the median plan outcome is a 295% gain on bank, and that I have committed to a 36.5% drawdown (before reducing stakes back to ½%) and have also committed to a 5% likelihood of a 90% loss of bank to £200.

Images added:

Bank balance and Monte Carlo simulation of backtested results

image

Journal Journey #6 27Aug20

The last post is only the journal log of the current proxy results. I felt not exactly at ease reporting a 14% drawdown on account but my objective of posting this journal was to continue, profit or loss, and the semi-public nature of this disclosure is important to motivate me to stick to my plan whether or not that plan is showing positive results. I am convinced of the authenticity of the input data from the simulator package, including that of the back testing, and past results have also shown bank cumulative losses for up to 3 months on a row. I will just have to live with that to test whether my psychology is REALLY committed to live with the outcomes no matter whether they are within the bell curve that Monte Carlo simulation is supposed to output, or an outlier result that is beyond the two sigma limit that I have set myself (99.8% probability that the range of outcomes will respect the simulation results from back testing.
I am also consciously aware that doubling stakes to 1% per event from 1/2% event has a magnifying effect on either the profit from winning streaks or losses from losing streaks. If anything, I should have chosen simulator outputs in the range of 3:1 to 6:1, but my “intuition” favours longer odds, and the largest edge from simulation favours those larger odds too, albeit with a large number of events required to approach median expected results.

What about progress other than this proxy real account pilot?

Well, I started a new consulting contract this week for nine months, so expect that to slow down my learning and education progress. The pilot takes up no more than an hour per day, and I have so far managed the last four days being able to participate on a daily basis. It is expected this will continue.

I have also finished reading “Wisdom of the Crowds” which along with Superforecasting last year has convinced me that the SP (starting price) results of my choice of horse in each event is represented by the Wisdom of the Crowds being more “right” than any individual trader, but that if the trader chooses to enter (back a horse) on odds that are far greater than the SP, the edge is representative of the delta between odds taken early, and SP. The bookies edge is on average 8% and in the case of Betfair Exchange around 5% or less, whereas the edge seems to be in the range of 15% to 25% - I will only calculate this after some 400 trades.

I have also finished reading the Mark Douglas “Trading in the Zone”, and his Trading Plan recommendations will be combined with those of NNFX referred to earlier to develop a trading strategy and trading plan that is related to either Crypto currency trading or to Forex trading as the next development beyond the horse racing sports betting proxy.

Meantime, the Crypto investment continues with outstanding short term results but I put that down to the entire Crypto market being in a bubble since March 2020. The trading element of that investment is to develop a risk mitigation for the downside that can be very dramatic (eg 80% losses in two days). So before the amounts committed become serious, I must find the solution to the downside risk.

And a distraction just to show that life is a b*tch, and then you die. My beautiful Microsoft Surface 4 Pro has had flu. It started with a small patch of yellowing to the left side of the screen that spelled some screen trouble about six weeks ago. The screen has now proceeded to separate itself from the aluminium body down all the left side and across the entire top side and has opened up so much that I can see the root cause. The batteries are slowly expanding and are at risk of explosion. It is four years old and less than a year out of warranty. I did some browsing and found there are thousands of folks who are suffering the same fate. Switching to YouTube, I was amazed how many DIY vids there are out there to fix it. With my new contract, it would be acceptable to just go out and buy a new one - all £1,500 worth! But as a trader I refuse to spend that kind of money without looking at “trading options”. Long story short, I bought a top of the range second hand unit last night on eBay, for delivery by special courier tomorrow. I will spend the bank holiday weekend doing applications and data transfer to the newly acquired unit (£500 with £250 worth of accessories), send mine in for repair at an estimated cost of £100, reuse my unit in the family to replace an over zealous purchase of last year of a £1,400 iPAD that is still not out of the box, and has not been used, and sell that one on eBay for a negative overall cost of £300. Cost saving will go directly into the Crypto fund. I ramble, I am happy, and there has never been a better time to trade.

Oh, and we sold a let property too this week. Happy days.

That’s all for now, journal. Till next time.

Journal Journey #7 – 10Sep20
You have now exceeded 200 trades and it is time to record in the journal journey post. Commiserations, you are 13.6% down after two months. Do you feel clever? No. Do you feel happy – yes, but not as happy as last month. Have you learnt anything? Yes – the results are within the plan, so you need to maintain the unwavering position of the past two months to let the probabilities play out.

At just less than £2,500 bank you decided to double your stakes to 1% of bank from ½% of bank. Review the rationale for that decision. The Monte Carlo analysis (10,000 iterations of back results for 1,100 trades for 18 months) showed an expected median drawdown of 36.5%, and the maximum drawdown was 37.7% on the last day before the largest winning trade since the start. That was a single £580 win (29% of bank) on 9Sep20. A decision was taken on 12Aug20 to double the stake from ½% of bank to 1% of bank and the risk of 4% probability of drawdown to £200 (90% drawdown) was accepted in favour of a median profit of £6,000 (300% for 1,100 trades) with a median drawdown of 36.5% as against a median profit of £150% for ½% trades with a median 22.5% drawdown. In summary, you have not wavered from the last journal entry. This is a 100% success on the psychology test of being comfortable with the predicted median drawdown for 1% stakes.

Mistakes. This analysis has been done at 200+ trades (223 to be precise) and is expected to yield a statistically more significant set of results. These are tabulated below.

Trade ID Net benefit / loss
£ Net gain / loss
% Description (earned value)
14 £100.00 5.0% Backed same horse twice
16 -£50.00 -2.5% No trade placed, winner SP 5.0
17 -£21.27 -1.0% odds -£21.27 less than SP
64 £95.00 4.8% odds £95 over SP
67 £80.00 4.0% odds £80 over SP
98 £40.00 2.0% odds £40 over SP
107 £6.00 0.3% odds £6 over SP
108 £10.00 0.5% odds £10 over SP
125 £220.00 11.0% odds £220 over SP
166 -£22.60 -1.1% odds -£22.60 less than SP
171 £56.00 2.8% odds £56 over SP
173 £0.00 0.0% backed wrong horse - cashed out at no loss
176 £0.00 0.0% BF restricted Sports Book stakes to < £10 - they must think I am a future liability
205 £60.00 3.0% odds £60 over SP
223 £120.00 6.0% odds £120 over SP
Totals £693.13 34.8%
Largest win £580.00 29.0% A 28/1 winner £20 1% stake
Longest losing streak 33 Longest
Next 26 Second longest
Next 19 Third longest
Longest losing streak 19 Fourth longest
Total staked £5,518.33 100.0%
Wins £2,677.38 48.5%
Losses £2,840.95 51.5%
wins 16 7.2% Historical Monte Carlo analysis is 11%
losses 184 82.5%
other 23 10.3% Event cancelled, non-runner
events 223 100.0%
% per trade 1.0% Detailed trading plan 18 month backtesting and Monte Carlo analysis
Median drawdown backtest 36.5% At which point stakes halve to 0.5% of bank per trade
Maximum drawdown actual 37.7%
Are results within plan? Yes
Current drawdown 13.6%
Next review Estimated 16Dec20 At 400 trades
Median plan profit £1,454.00 100.0% According to Monte Carlo median estimate for 400 / 1,100 trades
Negative mistakes 5 -2.2% Had a total negative effect on % return of minus 2.2%
Postive mistakes 8 39.0% Defined as actual odds obtained minus starting price odds times stake

Next steps.
Stick to the Trading Plan – do not stray with any further changes (except staking strategy if drawdown exceeds 38%) until 16Dec2020, and report thereafter to the journal journey post.10Sep2020 Sports betting 223 trades.pdf (234.2 KB)

You are such an inspiration @mondeoman. Thanks for sharing.

1st week October, number of trades per day slowing down. Now completed 286 trades, 114 to go until next update