Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading

I’d love to help but I’m so uncertain regarding where we are that I’m afraid I’ll look like the idiot that I feel like! I see folks making all kinds of pips and I sit here with nothing and worse! I took one trade today…it was a damn fool trade and, after the fact, I recognized it. and that happened AFTER I thought I was getting a handle on things.

I look forward to helping someday but…for now…I’m going to say thanks and continue to try to absorb all that you generous people are doing for folks like me.

Yes and no. :slight_smile:

At the point lot 3 is entered;

[ul]
[li]Lot 1 is in 30 pips profit, stop at +15
[/li][li]Lot 2 is in 15 pips profit, stop at break even
[/li][li]Lot 3 is in 0 pips profit, stop at -15
[/li][/ul]

If you leave all 3 lots on you have;
3 lots open
Risk 0
Profit taken 0
Profit on the table +45
Worst case +0

If you close Lot 1 at this point you have;
2 lots open
Risk -15
Profit taken +30
Profit on the table +15
Worst case +15

Alternatively, if you just don’t enter a 3rd lot you have;
2 lots open
Risk 0
Profit at stops +15
Profit on the table +45
Worst case +15

So, you can achieve the pure Graviton entry by simply not opening a 3rd lot at +30.

Or you can open a 3rd lot and leave them all open. I call this the “All In” strategy :slight_smile: You are risking the +15 profit to get an extra lot on. You have not risked any additional capital, just profits.

OK, I just took the top inner bb (1 std deviation) entry for shorting the EURUSD. As I said before, it carries a higher risk of stopout, but my win/loss on this method is very good when it is WITH the major trends, which is down for eu. I would never do this in a counter trend trade. The lesson here is, if you try something different, test it in demo. Calculate the win loss ratio and the risk reward. Only then try it live. Don’t fool around with your live account. That’s what demos are for.

Here is another shortcut. In the morning when you are just waking up, you don’t want to spend lots of time doing pair analysis from scratch. Since you did a complete pair analysis over the weekend (right?), and you know right where everything was when you went to sleep, all you need is a quick check to get back into the groove.

Remember, Price Action rules! We trade price. All nine time frame charts are only different ways of looking at the same price action on a pair. So do a quick check of price action on each chart. Start at the monthly chart and ask, is price action above or below the mid BB? If it’s above, give it a +1, if it’s below, give it a -1, if it’s just about even or on top of the mid bb, give it a 0. Do that for each time frame as you look at them and then add the numbers up. A +9 is trending as consistently as possible up. A -9 is trending as consistently as possible down. Numbers in between indicate less consistent trends. This quick count is only good at the moment you take it, but since it is a direct observation of price action It gets me started in the right direction in the morning. This quick count does not replace detailed pair analysis, but it does add some structure to my mornings. Try it, if you like it use it, if not, toss it.

Head spins round and round and falls off

OK, I’m going to let you guys sort this out. All I know is I’ve been trading this way since before there was an internet, so it works for me. I probably couldn’t change now even if I was dead wrong. It looks like it’s a question of, do you want to pull off 30 pips profit and continue with one less lot on, or do you want to risk 15 pips of your 30 profit and keep another lot on. I think either way will probably work fine, but trends don’t go on forever. In retrospect, on some trades at least, making 30 pips profit sounds pretty darned good.

Here is the MT4 indicator for the morning strategy that Graviton just discussed.

MTFTT Trend Counter.zip (656 Bytes)

Great work IronHeart. Thanks!

Its’ very simple
The first lot on the first example is NOT 15 pips, it is 30 pips. Instead of closing at 45 you change to a Trailing Stop instead of closing.
ironheart charts shows the closing at 45pips and that’s why the trailing stop will not go below +30 pips.

You & I know what we mean, even if nobody else does, eh, ninety9. They are not getting the concept of a Trailing Stop.

:D:D, they will get there too, after all I know some of them are much smarter then I am.:smiley:
Admittedly there is a very small risk involved with TS, if the pair would gap it could jump right over the TS. I have never seen it happen in Oanda except weekend but I don’t hold over the weekend anyway.
Ironheart thanks for the MQ4 very much appreciated.

[B]Ironheart[/B]
I have a request if I may, could the text be much bigger, or even adjustable in size and maybe could have color too?
OrangeRed for minus (I am colorblind red/green, traffic lights have no meaning to me :)),
Aqua for plus?
Thanks

Here is an analysis as per Graviton’s quick review. I don’t have Weekly or Monthly charts on Oanda, sorry. I have highlighted the top two ranks.

As you may have guessed, I’m not fond of scalping. I’ve tried it, but I could not beat those guys with the lightening fast bots, multiple price feeds, inside information and razor thin spread costs. But as someone even older than me said, everyone is good for something. If nothing else, they can serve as a bad example. And so in our never ending quest to find even one more lowly pip hidden between the couch cushions, we look at what scalpers do for a living.

You will usually find a scalper staring at at least three computer screens displaying the, the 5 minute chart the 1 minute chart , and a tick chart. They trade very large size for very few pips. They make a huge number of trades trying to get just a few pips off most.

They watch for a pair that is cycling smoothly in a range on the 5m chart. When price moves near the top of it’s 5m range, they look at the 1m chart, when it moves near the top of it’s range, they look at the tick chart with their finger on the button. When the tick chart hits the top of it’s run and price starts back down, they hit the sell button. If price moves unexpectedly up even a couple pips, they close the trade. If it continues to move down they move back to the 1m chart and watch it fall. As it continues to move down, they move to the 5m chart and watch it fall.

As the 5 minute chart gets near the bottom of it’s range, they move back to the 1m chart, as it gets back near the bottom of it’s range they move back to the tick chart, when the price quits falling there they click the close button for hopefully 10 or 15 pips profit on a very large lot size. They do this 20 or 30 times a day. Sometimes unexpected news comes out and wipes out a half days profits in one quick spike stopout. It’s a dreary life, but we can learn something from it. These guys really know how to squeeze the last pip out of a trade.

As high flying day traders we aren’t really interested in the dreary life of a scalper, but we are interested in more pips, even just a few more. So we’ll copy them for just a few minutes out of our day.

When it’s time to put on a second lot, we won’t just buy immediately because our first lot is 15 pips up, we will set the first lot SL to BE and look at the 5m chart. If price is going up, we look at the 1m chart, if the price is going up we buy, no harm no foul.

But, if the 5 minute chart is going down, we wait until it is near the bottom of it’s range and look at the 1m chart, if it’s going down we wait until it has hit the bottom of it’s range and starts back up, then we buy. Buy low, sell high.

With a little practice you can save a few pips per lot. That is enough to pay the spreads that some folks worry about! In any case, it gives you something constructive to do on slow days. Hey, every pip counts. Of course when the market is taking off and I’m managing 15 positions I don’t have time to fool with this. I’m too busy pulling profits out :slight_smile: But if it’s slow and I have time, I try to make a few extra pips per lot.

Great work! I’m really enjoying reading this thread.

Hachiko, heh, I do understand the concept of a trailing stop.

The example I posted was what would happen if the price reversed on you as soon as you hit that 30 pips profit. If you enter a trailing stop of 15 pips on a 30 pip profit and it reverses then you will be at +15 pips TP.

If you are waiting until you hit 45 pips before you enter the 15 pip trailing stop then that is completley different to what was discussed :slight_smile:

The following is a rolling demo of what would happen if a 15 pip trailing stop was applied to your 30 pips profit. As always, I hope I’m wrong, as more pips makes me happy, and being wrong in a way that makes me wealthier is a good thing! However, I don’t think I am wrong here…

Anyways :

LOT 1 is entered at price 100.

Price reaches 115, LOT 1 is +15 pips and LOT 2 is entered. (LOT 1 = +15 & LOT 2 = 0)

Price moves up to 130, LOT 1 = +30 pips, LOT 2 = +15 pips. LOT 3 is entered, at 0 pips.

Here is where you are saying to apply the 15 pip trailing stop? Or are you saying to keep going to 45 pips and then add a 15 pip trailing stop then? Either way, the following would happen if a retrace occurs -

PRICE retraces to 115. Now LOT 1 = +15 pips. LOT 2 was at BE, so = 0 pips. LOT 3 hits its SL at -15 pips.

Grand total = zero pips.

I can’t really see how I’ve misread the maths here, so I must be misunderstanding the timing of the placement of the trailing stop? Or I have understood…

Yep. Your maths is right but we are talking about different scenarios, hence the obvious :confused:

Instead of taking position 1 off the table, we put a SL on it at 30 pips and let it run. To ensure it continues to accrue pips we then choose whatever size TS you want. I choose a 15 pip TS and place it at the same time as the the SL at +30. Now the TS doesn’t move past +30 until the price is at +45 after which time every extra pip is yours to keep. This way, you still have your min of +30 on position 1 and max of xx.

Hope this clears it up…:wink:

Here is my current trend analysis using Graviton’s suggestion. GBP/USD appears to be the clear winner.:wink:

Recently - both in the chat room and here - there has been more and more attention given to what I would call “the shorter time frames,” by which I mean those under M30. Personally, I’m still trying to develop some skills at the H1 and above TFs.

Given that somewhat different focus, it seems to me that I should NOT be evaluating (i.e. quantifying) the TFs below H1…certainly not below M30. Focussing there not only puts the emphasis/importance on the longer time frame evaluation but it also has the benefit of not requiring as frequent a re-assessment of the numbers.

I’d appreciate any feedback anyone would care to give.

Thanks

I know of two answers, one is that all these timeframes are just different representations of the same price information. It’s hard to understand any one in isolation. But there is a better answer. I will present it shortly.

Many thanks, once again:).

I’m in…let me which pair or two to analysis and I’ll see what I can come up with:D
Thanks
Jack