Graviton,
The weekend is almost upon us. What are some of the things that you look at during the weekend?
I am thinking the weekend is a great time to study and plan and could use some help on what to look for. What were you looking at that let you know the dollar was going to fall this week compared to the eu and others?
Hi Graviton
If you are trading the CBL method in the 1 H chart, you take all the CBL entries? How do you filter.
If the 1H chart is your home chart you take CBL in the direction of the 1H or 4H chart? Or it doesntĀ“matter if is up or down
Iām toying with the possibility of a swing/postion trade on the weekly USD/CHF pair. There is a valid CBL forming and it fits in with a falling dollar scenereo. However, I am a little spooked with the history of the Swiss bank intervening out of nowhere with their currencyā¦but if they do intervene itās usually a downward push that they make correct? So maybe this would not be a factor to consider. The monthly is mostly flat but with a slight downtrend so I was going to wait and see how the week closes on this pair and if it closes past 1.1419 maybe wait to fill the gap on Monday and jump in. Whatdaya think?
I look at the stats generated by my weeks trades, W/L, R/R, Avg Win, Avg Loss, total pips won, total pips lost, largest win, largest loss, % change in account balance, etc. I chart and graph everything up in excel and keep moving averages of my progress, of course 
I will review my trade plan and see if there are any tweeks that need to be made. My last change was two weeks ago when I allowed counter trend trades with good CBLās on 4H and daily charts. That was a big change to my trading method, opening up lots of new trades. My research indicates very good win loss ratios and if I can keep my stop loss to a minimum with good entry optimization I get very good R/R ratios as well.
I will review charts for about 20 pairs and form trade plans for next week. I look for and draw in lots of trend lines. Iāll read up on the fundamentals of all the majors and comdolls. Iāll eventually create a story for how all the main pairs should act next week. If the pair moves as expected I will trade it, and if not I will scrap that plan.
Iāll go swimming with my daughter and grandson. I will mostly just float around and drink a cold adult beverage and let them do most of the intense swimming though 
Last weekend I planned to continue the strong dollar trades this week. They all paid off nicely last week. I couldnāt get good entries on Monday though and had to scrap that plan and go with the reverse, a weak dollar theme. That worked well so I stayed with it all week.
I am currently only taking 1H CBLās in the H4 direction. Iām taking H4 CBLās in either direction.
When the swiss national bank intervenes, it is to reduce the value of the swiss franc. They print francs and sell them for euros. That reduces the value of the swiss franc vs. all major currencies and makes swiss exports cheaper to buy in other countries. Their major concern though is the eur/chf since the euro zone is their main trading partner. So swiss intervention would move the chf down in value, or the usdchf up, or against the direction of your trade.
The swiss have tried many times to hold down the value of their currency, but all they have done is burn the shorts in eur/chf short term. As soon as the intervention stops, the franc continues itās climb against the euro, bringing the eur/chf down. I can only conclude the swiss like burning speculators that are driving up the value of their currency. Since their internal inflation rate is low, they can print all the francs they wish to shake out the eur/chf shorts.
The funny thing is itās not the speculators that are driving up the value of the franc vs. the euro. The Chinese tried to diversify about 300 billion dollars out of the usd into the euro early last year, but when the euro had problems in nov last year the chinese started selling euros and buying a well diversified basket of other currencies including lots of francs, as well as a well diversified portfolio of commodities including LOTS, read truly huge amounts, of silver and gold almost doubling the price of gold and over doubling the price of silver. The chinese are also buying up all the mines that produce almost all the rare earth materials used in defense and high tech devices. The chinese are not going to be shaken out of the franc, so all the intervention is useless. Not bad for a country that just discovered capitalism last week. But we are now straying pretty far away from your trade.
I think you should take the trade and try to optimize your entry to minimize your risk. Wait until price is moving in your direction before entering. If price reverses and goes strongly against you, exit and try to re-enter at a better price. You donāt even consider spread on this type of trade. You only want to re-enter at a better price if you are driven out. You might have to work it for days to get a good entry that will hold. Or, you might be able to get in at a good price from the beginning. Itās unlikely, but possible. But, nothing ventured nothing gained. Just manage your risk carefully.
Hi graivton, i noticed all your 4HR TF trades were in a bubble/sausage?
If so how did you know when to enter? Wait for the opp BB contract, then enter at the high of extreme candle? Or did you use a body smaller than extreme candle method?
I thought those were the no trade areas.
And also, how did you get a feel for this week theme, like a falling dollar?
You judge from monday how the dollar fare and progress along the week?
Could you recommend any sites to me for that mention about fundamentals, or to get a feel for the pairs like you did, lol.
And by the way, those are some damn nice trades you got on!
finally finished reading this thread, hot on the heels of tymen finest in trend trading thread.
much appreciated to graviton and everyone else that shared and asked intelligent questions so we can learn.
My first question since finished reading this thread:
Graviton, you talked about good and bad entries earlier. A good entry should be positive right about entering, and bad entries should be exited quickly.
My situation is such that most of the time the entries I made based on the CBL, they goes into red almost immediately more often than not!
You propose a few solution, such as using the 15M Stoch to determine if we should take the entry. Iād like to ask do you have a set routine of determining, because a worrying large number of my entries goes into negative too often for my liking. This cause my heart rate to shoot through the roof and made me doubt myself on the rational of entering this trade. I could post a few charts to show if you need to determine it on a case by case basis.
Thanks
I was stopped out, twice. Once on the initial move up as I tried to enter a down trade, for 20 pips, and again on the whipsaw where I tried to enter back up for another 20 pips. I then tried again and the entry held. Note that I always enter with very tight mental stops. If it moves my way Iāll let it run, but if it moves against me Iāll quickly early exit. I can early exit 5 times for what I get in one big stop out loss.
One of Gravitonās rules;
The correct position size seems too small to be worth the effort.
LOL, thatās a good one NB.
Another way to say the same thing is: If emotions effect your trading, cut your position size in half.
I actually read that very long list of rules I posted on Tymenās thread about once a week and still add to them, usually about one a month. Thereās 20 years of trading wisdom collected in that list.
A recent addition which I have mentioned here many times is:
The definition of a good entry is it goes in your direction right away. A bad entry goes against you right away.
Let good entries run and exit bad entries quickly.
I took H4 shorts on EU and EJ early today and they are doing quite well. Both went positive right on entry, the definition of a good entry. Unless something changes before close, I will probably hold them over the weekend and run the position next week.
I exited EU, GU long positions on breaks of the H1 up trend lines for nice profit early this morning. Iāve reduced the stop on AU to minimum, my favorite way to exit a swing trade. If it goes up Iāll let it run some more, if it exits on stopout, Iāll exit with good profit. The only long I have left is NU. Itās still running up, but if it turns Iāll exit before close. If not, I may hold it over the weekend.
Have a good weekend all. Happy trading.
Top wisdom here!! 
[B]Trade your belief!! [/B] 
I noticed the H4 on USDCHF is going up today. In entering a weekly trade you must optimize your entry to keep your risk low. That means you work top down looking for price to be going your way, daily, H4, H1, M15, M5.
If you optimize entries on a trade like this, you can hold risk down very low. You might get stopped out once or twice before getting a good entry, but thatās the price of doing business. Donāt fall into the old trap of just jumping in with no optimization and a huge stop loss. You can ultimately be right on direction and lose a fortune that way. [B]ALWAYS OPTIMIZE EVERY ENTRY OR ADDITION TO A POSITION. NO EXCEPTIONS[/B]
Happy Trading
Hi Graviton!
Did you take the short CBL on 4H chart EUR/USD?
I did and iĀ“m holding it for the weekend. I think the retracement line will be broken next week and the downtrend in the 4H and daily will resume. So if that happens, then the CBL entry was a really really good entry!!
I enter with a CBL and always when lower TFās are moving in the direction of my entry. Usually just the momentum will carry my trade far enough that I donāt have much risk, even if the trade reverses later. Ideally, I should have exited the bad entry with only 10 to 15 pips loss the first time, but it was Monday and I was a little slow on catching up on the change in dollar direction.
I trade H4 a little different than other shorter TFās. If everything else looks good, I will take a trade for very low risk in a no trade zone on H4. The pips are so large that if it only runs a little while before reversing to RO price action, I can still make 100ās of pips. In shorter TFās that would only be 20 or 30 pips profit, not enough to take the risk. I like H4
You can see charts on Dollar index by googling dollar index chart live, or something like that. I often look at the one on FXStreet, but there are many others. They all show a sharp reversal on Monday this week.
There are tons of sites with curency fundamentals. Just google search for daily forex fundamental analysis, or something like that, and skip any links that are trying to sell you something. DailyFX and FXStreet are a couple good ones, but there are very many.
Yes, this was a good trading week. Entering on an H4 CBL and exiting on a H1 trend line break worked well this week. Itās great that the same thing doesnāt work every week, otherwise this would get very boring very fast
Hello there Graviton:)!
Reading everypost with great interest, always good stuff hehe!
This was my best week so far, more than 350 pips on EA short! AS you said lol:D! I did not however be conistant with tp 1and 2 on 4H, so theres improvemt to be done, moving up one TF at a time eh :).
The world of big pips is great ! Have a good weekend everyone!
Yes, I took it, but then it retraced a little and I exited with half my profit. Iāll enter again next week if it still looks good. It wound up retracing enough that I can enter again at a better price and pay the spread, so no real reason for me to hold over the weekend. It does look like a good entry.
Great! I think youāll do great Loppan. You started out right, controlling your risk. Once you learn to control your risk, profits just seem to fall in your lap. Have a great weekend!
