The weekly ej chart is in a no trade zone and is trending down. I’d require at least a 2CBL to enter a trade in a no trade zone. It’s made a 1CBL, but not a 2CBL. Also, I won’t take a trade in the no trade zone if the price has penetrated the BB against me on more than 3 candles after the expansion from the last squeeze. 6 candles have penetrated the bottom BB since the last expansion from a squeeze. Also, I don’t like a trade in the no trade zone if the higher TF trend is against it, the monthly trend is down. So the weekly chart trade won’t work for me.
The 4H long entry looked better at noon EST Friday, but now with the long wick on top and price pulling back below the mid band in the afternoon, I wouldn’t take it long. With the good short entry on H1, I still favor short on this pair since it’s gone way short for years, but I’d need to see the open to see if I’ll trade it now or wait some more. If it gaps up on the open without news, I’ll trade the gap to close down and stay down if it keeps moving down. If it gaps down on the open, I’ll wait and watch some more as I’m not comfortable trading this pair up for the moment.
That’s just my opinion of the probabilities. Of course, nothing is 100% in Forex, so it could do just the opposite.
Hi Graviton
thanks for explanation
I think when the price made 2 cbl entry, then pa would be very close to the middle band and there is no guarantee that pa would bounce off the middle band. Would you please tell me what charts are set for cbl to enter.
I made to much losing trades with cbl even in the squeeze last week
btw, look what I got. Isnt she cute, I didnt name her yet, such happy I am
did you like my Casey too? thanks
yea, she is really cute, its Chihuahua.
well, I am not that much home pets lover as you - you have reacted quickly
what breed is your dog?
I’ve been away for a few weeks on a family vacation. Wife threatened physical violence to my laptop (and me :eek: ) if I did “ANY” trading or even looked at the forums.
So here I am; back from the break and ready to trade again, albeit with mini-lots until I get back up to speed.
I can’t believe how much the EUR/CHF has dropped. Seems the Swiss have given up; but they may intervene again now that the G-20 summit is over.
I have this fear in me of getting stopped out even though i placed my stopped at the extreme candle in squeeze, thus i always placed my stops at a previous lower low(going long).
This allows more room for volatility, however i need to earn more pips back to get my 1:1 ratio.
And after looking back at my past trades, PA hardly even goes near the extreme candle low (if going long), the trade usually goes my way. So in fact placing my SL further away is quite pointless.
I will try having more confidence in myself and place my SL at the extreme candle next time round, perharps add a 1 + ATR just incase.
Something i have learnt this few days, to share with you guys
Euro looks weak across the board today. Good Euro news is being ignored, bad Euro news is driving the Euro lower. I opened the day short all 6 pairs with Euro on top. I’ll cut a couple off that aren’t performing well 1 hr before the London close. Those that perform best will get another lot after London close.
I rarely enter a trade with a stop greater than 30 pips. I’ve done lots of analysis and have found that trades that move against me more than 30 pips are much less likely to win than those that don’t.
Soon, I intend to write up a whole method to analyze and optimize stops for any trading system or method. This will be one of those rare big original Graviton things that come around only once every few months. I just need to find the time to write it all down. This will be the best thing I’ve ever written down by far :eek:
In the mean time, you can get a jump on this by logging a bit of extra data on your trades. In addition to the things you normally log about each trade, pair, buy or sell, stop loss, home chart TF, reasons for trade, resulting win or loss amount, you need to log three additional pieces of data. ATR of your home chart at the moment the trade is taken, the Maximum Movement against (MMA) which is the maximum amount price went against you after entry, not including spread. So, MMA = 0 if the trade goes in your favor at the moment of entry and never retraces back past your entry point. For a trade with 4 pip spread and 30 pips stop beyond that, and you get stopped out for a total 34 pip loss, MMA = 30. All others fall between 0 and your stoploss amount, not including spread.
You’ll also need to collect data on MPA, or Maximum Profit Available. This is the maximum price moved in your favor, not including spread, regardless of where you took profit. So if price moved a maximum of +40 pips during the course of the trade, and you had a spread of 4 pips, the MPA was +40, even though you would have to pay spread out of that and you really could have exited with 36. The point is, this number MPA, as well as MMA, are both just delta price movement, regardless of spread.
Ask questions if you have any, otherwise collect your data to get a head start, or just wait to see what this is all about if you wish.
Late in the London day many of the largest London day traders square up their positions. If a pair has moved a lot during the session those traders who don’t intend to hold overnight will close their position and take profits, causing the direction to reverse in the last hour of London trading. This is most pronounced on Friday as traders start closing positions before the weekend. I like to trade with the largest traders, so if I’m in a day trade that’s well ahead I’ll often take profits on day trades an hour before the London close during the weekdays, and two hours before the London close on Fridays on day trades and swing trades. This usually generates a counter trend move that makes for another good entry later. Some traders will trade the counter trend causing it to go even further. I don’t usually trade the counter trend, but many do with success.
Often the counter trend move plays out in a couple or few hours and I can re-enter at a better price. Note the hour after London close is lunch break in NY, so it’s not unusual to see trend reverse sharply right after lunch NY time as traders return to their desks. That’s when I look to re-enter the main trend at a better price. All that doesn’t work every day, but anything more than half the time is an edge. If the pair keeps trending right on through the London close, I stay in it. If it starts to reverse direction a little earlier, like two or three hours before London close, I may take profits early and take an early lunch with NY traders. If the after lunch countertrend doesn’t reverse, I will stay out. The counter trend needs to break trend lines and S/R lines and look very solid for me to trade it, but rarely I will, maybe once every week or two. I trade it for just very few pips though as I’m expecting it to fail.
Interesting about the London close there Graviton, i too have wondered about that :).
After London seems to offer great cheap stop trades, which i very much like since all my big stops (30+) just meant big losses, 10-20 pip stops is not uncommon in the US session alone! This can be hard to come by during London or London + us, but summer seems to offer us some!
Now this cheap stop analysis sounds like a real treat!!!
Wow, i’ve never thought of analysing till this in depth. You sure have open up my eyes once again! yes, i’d do just that so i could see how often the trade goes my way and how often it goes against me.
The thing is i usually enter on 30mins TF, thus the SL can be really small like 10 pips only.
In fact i enter on either the 30mins 1hr or 4hrs, but somehow i usually find most my entries in the 30mins.
And i always trade with the trend, that could possible explain why i’m “lucky” to have trade going my way.
And by the way, how does the MPA thing works?
Would it be the amount of pips that go in your favour before retracing or isit our ideal Target price?
I’ll add those additional details to my journal and see how it goes!
