Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading

GRAVITON! Your re-entry technique realy works!

I made a couple of entries today long at usd/chf but got stopped out because of bad timing, of course i didnt let the price hit my stop loss (i exit at half). Then i made a third one and bingo! is already paying the spread of the last two bad trades and also making some actual profits! :smiley:

My stop loss is never set to capture profit or even get me out at BE. It does a horrible job of that since it will always take you out at a profit minimum or a loss maximum. I capture profit by manually exiting on a peak profit point. That is a totally different process. Another process is I manually exit before BE if a good trade turns bad.

My stop loss has one purpose and that is to take me out of a trade in case a spike is so quick I canā€™t exit manually. So on a good entry, I will manually exit before BE is crossed, even though the stop loss is set to be just outside the normal volatility of the trade and may be way on the negative side of BE.

So essentially, there are three processes going on early in a trade. First, an emergency stop loss is set to be outside the normal volatility of the trade, say 15 to 40 pips for a 1H trade, but usually around 30 pips. That stop loss should be hit very rarely and only in the case of a quick unexpected spike against my trade, maybe only once every two weeks. As you perfect your entry technique, you will find you can tighten up that initial stop loss and still only have it hit very rarely, yielding less loss on the rare occasion when it is hit.

Second, I determine if the entry is good or bad. I quickly exit bad entries. For a good entry I will always exit with a profit. This is where your quesrion lies. I donā€™t move my stop loss to break even. I keep it trailing outside the normal volatility of the trade. The longer Iā€™m in a trade, the more volatility Iā€™m exposed to, so I will let the stop loss grow as the trade moves more in my favor. Just the opposite of what you are asking.

Instead of moving the SL to BE, I manually exit before BE if a trade turns against me. This requires discipline and agility, but itā€™s not complicated. A SL is also a terrible substitue for trading discipline. Thatā€™s the difference in a rare quick spike, where I canā€™t manually exit with a profit, and a more slowly forming retracement where I can manually exit with a profit, even if itā€™s small. Those slowly forming retracements happen many times every day. So for every trade that moves 30+ pips in my favor, I will early exit 3 or 4 with only 1 to 15 pips profit and Iā€™ll have maybe one bad entry that Iā€™ll exit with a 10 pip loss. The bad entry exits and the early exits with profit almost exactly cancel out (in perfect trading they do exactly), so what Iā€™m left with are only trades that move 30+ pips profit and a very rare spike out loss.

The third process is taking profit at profit peaks. I implement that process at around +30 pips profit. Usually the stop loss has moved to close to BE at that point, but that has nothing to do with taking profit. Profit is taken out on profit peaks, but I will always take at least 1/2 profit when I have switched on the profit taking process. Thatā€™s just in case the trade turns against me and there is no new peak formed to take out profit as it wastes away. Of course there was a peak, but it was above 30+ pips profit and I simply missed it this time. After you practice this 10,000 times, you get better at taking out your profit on peaks. You should chart your progress at doing this using the tool for measuring profit taking efficiency. Iā€™ll rename that tool PTE so as to not confuse it with PE price to earnings ratio. Iā€™ll also rename the maximum profit available (the maximum profit peak during the duration of the trade) to Maximum Favorable Excursion, to be in agreement with the common name for it. So the tool is, PTE = AP/MFE or, Profit Taking Efficiency equals Actual Profit divided by Maximum Favorable Excursion. Iā€™ll do a whole separate post on this later as itā€™s a bit off topic right now.

Did I answer your question?

Great that you no longer are hitting stop losses. If you hit more than one every two weeks, you have strayed from the path of righteous trading. Yep, you are getting the hang of it. Just be careful. When the light comes on it can blind you.

Document everything in your trading plan and journal. That way you wonā€™t stray from the path and get lost later. Once you have a method that is working, changes should be evolutionary to better fit your personal style and method, not revolutionary.

There is only one thing that now stands between you and professional trading glory, the big monster loss. Itā€™s out there, just waiting to gobble up all your profits and destroy your self confidence. You must never ever ever encounter it. To avoid that horrible encounter, never move a stop loss against the direction of your trade. Never increase your stop losses to stay in bad trades. Always exit a bad trade before you hit your stop loss.

These rules sound simple, and they are, but violating these rules has sent many a good trader to working in a cube all day at a job she hates every waking moment of her life. I canā€™t say your life depends on it, but in a sense it does. Stay alert, donā€™t get hurt.

Yes Graviton, very clear your answer!
I did measure my PE this week also.
Right now i closed all my trades, it was a very good week, and as i promised i will post my results this evening.

thanks! :smiley:

Yea verily gasanvill; I say unto you. Heed the words of Graviton; for he [I]has [/I]trodden the path of monster losses; and knoweth the bleak and forbidding journey that it entails to climb back from that wretched pit of despair. And at the bottom of that pit, there lieth a creature with claws and teeth like ye have never seen. And that creature, whose name be uttered in fear by brave traders everywhere is:ā€¦[B][I]Margin Call[/I][/B]

Yes Graviton, thank you for the words! :slight_smile:

Trust me, i will never ever again will move a SL against the direction of my trade. IĀ“ve blown my account in just one day, not so long ago, because of that mistake.

ā€¦
lol :smiley:

Greetings Graviton,
Just wanted to introduce myself. Iā€™ve been following Tymenā€™s BB DNA forum for the past several weeks and found the links to your thread. I try not to post much since others usually ask the same questions I have, but since this thread is a little smaller I look forward to getting your insight as we learn.

It seems if you talk to anyone who trades successfully in forex (or any markets) they all have the same story to tell. Almost all of them lost everything in the beginning. It seems like itā€™s an unwritten requirement that you have to loose big in order to wake yourself up and say, Ok now I will follow the rules and get serious. Pay your dues to the school of hard knocksā€¦then you can progress. Iā€™m just trying to avoid this all too common pitfall and learn the right way even if it takes a year or more of demo trading. Threads like yours will make this process easier.

Keep up the good workā€¦

  • Creosote

Itā€™s rare for anyone to get my dry humor :smiley:

Thank you for the kind words. Iā€™ve gone over just about everything I know about good trading. Sometimes the same things several times. Most of my posts now are answering questions and helping traders work through the most common problems. But feel free to contribute any time. Good questions, especially with charts, help everyone learn.

Some have noted they arenā€™t getting enough entries off CBLā€™s on just the 1H and 4H charts, so I will touch on that a moment. Another method I like is breaking of a retracement trend line. Itā€™s simple and reliable. All it requires is that you identify what the long term trend is in a pair and watch for retracements against that trend. A retracement that runs a half day to several days is perfect for this type of entry. I rarely trade retracements but I will draw in their trend lines just to remind myself they are there. After having traded these for so long I donā€™t need to draw in the trend line as I can just visualize it by looking at the chart, but the trend line reminds me itā€™s there and to watch it. When the retracement ends, as the vast majority will, and the trend line is broken and price is returning to the direction of the long term trend, a perfect entry on a peak point is generated. Often on some time frame a cbl will be generated at the same time. Getting a strong retracement trend line break and a cbl at the same time is like finding free money. I usually can easily find a third good reason to enter the trade, like fundamental information or an s/r line that the price bounced off in the first place to break the retracement trend. If there is an s/r line that price just bounced off of, I can place the stop just on the other side of the s/r line for a tight stop and enter for maybe a 20 to 30 pip stop and often make 100 or more pips on the trade. It takes a bit of practice, but itā€™s simple really and itā€™s good direct price action confirmation of an entry point.

There are many other good entry methods and when trading is slow you can try them out in demo. DO NOT try new entry methods in your good account as you will mess up your good account with them. It takes months to practice a new entry method before you go live with it. Even then it is suspect until it has proved itself with W/L and R/R ratio analysis and produces MAEā€™s and MFEā€™s as good as your other methods. Each methodā€™s results need to be broken out separately and carefully analyzed to determine which are performing the best.

Now Iā€™ll go into the hardest entry method I know, joining in on a trend in progress. This is very difficult for me and for anyone I know that has tried it, but with LOTS of demo practice and LOTS of patience it can be done. I only know how to do this when the trend in progress is on a longer term chart, like the 4H, daily or above. Iā€™ve tried it on the shorter term charts like the 1H and below, but itā€™s just not been reliable, for me at least. Donā€™t try this live. Practice it 100ā€™s of times in demo before trying to take it live.

The point is what looks like a steady trend on a longer chart, like a 4H or daily chart, can look like up, down, sideways or ranging price action on a shorter TF chart, like 1H, 30M or 15M. The goal is to enter say a strong 4H, daily or weekly trend in progress by making the entry on a shorter TF.

Say the 4H is strongly trending up. If you wait long enough you might get a valid up CBL on the 1H chart, but you might have to wait a very long time, and you might never get one at all. You can drop down to a 30M chart and you might get one twice as fast, or you might not ever get one in a strongly trending market.

Of course, a 1H CBL would be perfect to enter in the direction of a strong 4H trend. I spoke to one trader who used this method exclusively with wonderful success not losing a single trade this week (I could use a nice Rolex, not sure what Tymen wants, maybe audio equipment? ;)). But often you just wonā€™t see a good 1H cbl in the direction of a strong 4H trend for a very long time unless you just happen to get lucky, so Iā€™ll look down. For instance, Iā€™ll look at the previous 24 hours or so of price action on the 30M chart. If there hasnā€™t been a valid CBL, I figure I might have to wait longer and Iā€™ll move down to the 15M chart. If I see CBLā€™s occurring there every few hours or so, that will be my target entry chart. Usually about two time frames below the strong trend are all I can reliably handle. Occasionally I can make a 5M entry work for a 4H chart, but itā€™s a lot of work and unreliable. So letā€™s say Iā€™ve decided to try to enter this 4H trend in progress two full timeframes below, on the 15M chart.

First of all, I donā€™t want to enter if the time frame above me, the 1H, is going the wrong way. If it is, I have to wait until it turns, in which case sometimes I will get a good entry on the 1H chart on the turn anyway. But if not, and Iā€™m intent on getting in on this 4H trend, Iā€™ll make sure the 1H is trending in the direction I want to go and wait for a 15M CBL or retracement trend line break in the direction I want to go. When I get both a valid CBL plus a retracement trend line break, itā€™s almost always good if traded right. Iā€™ll time my entry by looking at the lower timeframes as previously explained and enter the 15M trade.

Now what Iā€™m hoping for is this peak good entry point on the 15M chart will also correspond to a peak good entry point on the 1H chart and that will also correspond to a peak good entry point on the 4H chart. But I know from having tried this about 2,000 times that this peak good entry point on the 15M chart will only correspond to a peak good entry point on the 1H chart about 1 in 5 tries, and a peak good entry point on the 1H chart will only correspond to a good entry point on the 4H chart about one in 5 times. So the chances that this entry point on the 15M chart will provide a good entry on the 4H chart is only about 1 in 25. Does that mean that all is lost and we should give up? NO! We are traders, we never give up.

Due to the fractal nature of price action, what works on the 1H and 4H time frames also works on the 15M time frame. Itā€™s just that on the 15M time frame, profits are 1/4 of what they are on the 1H time frame per trade and spread takes about 4 times a bigger bite out of the profit margin. But thatā€™s OK here since we didnā€™t want to trade the 15M timeframe anyway; we just wanted to get a very reliable and cheap entry into the 4H trend already in progress. Anyway we donā€™t have any choice, we are in a 15M time frame trade and we have to trade it to squeeze out every pip of profit possible. Essentially, at this point we forget the 4H or 1H time frame even exists. We are trading the 15M time frame to minimize risk and maximize profit and all the rules apply. We donā€™t change the rules of our winning system just because we have a dream of joining a 4H trend in progress. We trade it as though we wanted to trade the 15M TF all along. Of course, everything that makes our system win on longer time frames must be adjusted for the shorter 15M time frame. Thatā€™s another reason to trade this entry for a few months in demo. Everything is different on the shorter TF, MAEā€™s, MFEā€™s, stop loss, take profit points, etc. It takes a lot of demo trading to get the reliability in a 15M trade that you get in another longer timeframe if you have always traded longer TFā€™s. It can be done though and some people do quite well at it and really prefer it.

Now if we employ the exact same rules as we would use trading a higher time frame with adjustments to the numerical values, due to the fractal nature of price action, we should get the exact same W/L ratio and Risk Reward ratio, ignoring spread as we know it will take a slightly larger bite out of profit. But it turns out that difference is smaller than you would at first think and we can discuss why some other time. So we can do this 25 or more times if need be and make good pips while doing it. It will probably take me more like 50 entry tries because of all the early exits I make. But thatā€™s OK, I have a plan and Iā€™m making pips trading my plan. I could get lucky and get what I want in just a few tries. That just happens sometimes.

Eventually, say after about 10 good entries or so and having made good pips on the 15M TF, I will find myself in a trade that provides a good 1H entry point. Essentially, the good entry on the 15M chart also turns out to be a good entry on the 1H chart. The 15M trade will run far enough that I can kick in the 30+ pip take profit rule on the 1H chart. That is the point I usually leave my entry process behind and switch on my take profit process, as described earlier.

How cool is that? So I jump up a time frame to the 1H chart, switch on my 30+ pip take profit rule and trade it just as if I was smart enough to pick this odd but good 1H entry point in the first place. I trade it with all the rules and values I would normally use in a 1H chart trade that has gone +30 pips in my favor, and I should get the same results as I normally would in a 1H chart trade. Iā€™ll pocket at least 15 pips and probably more and be a happy trader at the end of the trade, as I usually am.

However, odds do not favor this good 1H trade becoming a good 4H entry trade in just one try. Odds are, my good 1H trading rules will take me out of the trade before I can call it a good 4H TF entry with +90 pips or so. Remember that once Iā€™m in the 1H trade, I forget the 4H exists. The 4H wonā€™t help me win a 1H trade once Iā€™m in it and I always trade to win. So odds are Iā€™ll be expelled on the 1H trade by my 1H trading rules before I can ever call this particular entry a good 4H entry as well. Thatā€™s OK in that whatever happened in the 1H trade, over the long haul Iā€™ll make 4 times the profit (with 4 times the duration) as in the 15M trades, but with less spread bite. And since the true risk, the MAE, of the 15M trade that I entered with is much less than that of entering a 1H trade directly, my risk to reward ratio is great for this type of entry.

The only problem is, now Iā€™ve been expelled from the 1H trade by my 1H trading rules, with profit of course, and Iā€™m probably not at a point for a good entry back into another 1H trade in the direction of the 4H trend, that is, no cbl or retracement trend line break. So I have to go back down to the 15M and start all over again. After another 10 or so tries and 5 or so good entries making small pips on the 15M chart, Iā€™ll find myself at another good entry on the 1H chart with +30 pips ahead, so I move back up and trade the 1H chart again.

I keep doing this over and over until at some point the 1H trade goes +90 pips or so, the point where my usual take profit rules kick in on a 4H trade, and I move up and trade the 4H just as if I had entered it at just a perfect entry point in the first place. That is, if the 4H trend hasnā€™t ended by then.

Of course, at any point where all my trading rules are satisfied for a 1H entry, like three good reasons to enter with one being direct price action confirmation of the entry, I can skip the 15M chart and go directly to the 1H chart.

Well, thatā€™s the way itā€™s done. Itā€™s a long tedious difficult process that may only yield a few pips off 15M chart trading all day, or can rarely yield hundreds of pips reward for about 12 to 15 pips risk. OK, if you read all this, you deserve to know the really cool thing. The really cool thing, the positively fantastic thing, is the same process allows you to trade the 1H chart as you normally would and rarely, about once every month or two, get a really good and really cheap entry into a strong daily trend that will run for months and yield 1000ā€™s of pips. It may take weeks or a couple months of 1H trading to get that cheap entry, but hey, what else are you going to do, just jump in the daily and lose 300 pips on a hunch? Not my style. Iā€™m cheap, really cheap. As always, let me know if you have any questions or corrections :slight_smile:

Wow Graviton! I feel like you read all my mind! it took me almost three years to discovered it!

My home chart is the 15 min and i take CBL entries only when the daily and 4H charts are in the same direction. The key is to buy on the dips (uptrend) and to sell on the rallies (downtrend). One of the things that helps me a lot is candlestick patterns, i look for candlestick patter in the daily and 4H chart for confirmation. If the daily is up and the 4H is going down, as soon as i see a hammer i get prepared for the trend to start going up again. I dont know if you incorporate candlestick in your analysis, but i find very useful tu just take a look at the sometimes.

I want to ask you why you dont trade retracements?

Hi Graviton :slight_smile:

Can I ask same questions?

What do you use as benchmark for direction of movement upper and lower Bbands or do you do it by highs and lowers or you just see the last candle is it bullish or bearish?

How long you can wait until all charts are lined up if you trade 1H charts? I need to know because when I am waiting I think that it takes forever.

Is there a situation for instance when 1H, 30 min H are up, but 15 min is down and 5 min and 1 min is up or its impossible?

Do I understood correctly if 1H chart is moving up, 30 min and 15 min charts are also moving up and they will continue to move in this direction until 1min chart is starting to move down
In common any particular chart will continue to move up until next ā€œdropping down chartā€ changed its direction is it right?

If I make a trade off 1H chart Is it enough to watch only 30min and 1min charts to go in the direction of a trade?

When you do cbl entry how much pips do you allow going against your trade (meaning its not amount of your SL) on 30 min, 1H chart, 4H chart and Daily charts?

When we set SL isnā€™t it purpose and distance that we believe to give the PA some room to change its direction back to favor of our trade which also protects the trade from spikes?
By closing trade before PA hit SL (while price is moving against) how do we know that its wrong direction but not expected (unexpected) spike?

I also would like to ask you, if you can see at the bottom of this page there is reviewpips.com. As I understood there is a live tading rooms can be set up to make a live trades and see it on the charts directly. Can you setup one for practice please?

Yes i totally understand what your last sentence means. Im on my own on this journey and you can only show me the door. I have to open it myself.

I have been recording my journals and entries and iā€™ll add the max adverse excursion one as well. Thank you very much, look forward to the next lesson!

Well, as i promised i will post my results of the week. IĀ“ve been using this method to take profits:

at R:R = 1 move my SL to BE
R:R = 2 lock 25%
R:R = 3 lock 33%
R:R = 4 , close the trade.

I took 12 trades this week, and iĀ“m attaching the result (JPG).


Average profit efficiency = 76%

Win/loss ratio = 60%

risk/reward= 0.2

Increased my account in 0.5% (My account size allows me to trade mini lots, but iĀ“m trading microlots 0.01 until i get the hand of it).

Next week iĀ“m incorporating ATR to my analysys so i can calculate the MAEn.

As you can see the results for this week were good. This is the first time that i feel that wasnĀ“t luck. I have a feeling that every profit i made in the last months, i was just lucky. I will try to have another winning week, i know the king knog effect wiil be there, but i wont let it win! :smiley:

Thanks Graviton for taking the time and giving as such great advices!

Fartist, please check out Tymenā€™s thread and his latest posts on using simply PSAR and BB Midband for stoploss and Take Profit points. Read it through about three times and study his examples carefully until it is crystal clear. Iā€™m demo testing his ideas now. As Tymen said, PSAR and the 20SMA have been around for years and Iā€™ve used both extensively in the past, but Tymen has formed them up into a simple rule based system for stop loss and take profit. Iā€™ll be looking at this carefully in demo over the next week or two, but the initial look shows it is simple and effective. If you have a good system that is working for you now, DONā€™T let this mess you up. But if you are still having problems setting stop losses and taking profits efficiently, you may want to try Tymenā€™s system in demo and evaluate it using the tools I have suggested.

The good thing about Tymenā€™s system is that it is purely mechanical, so emotions shouldnā€™t affect your stop loss and take profit decisions at all. I believe once you get over the emotions of your trading, youā€™ll do fine. Everyone has trouble with that in the beginning, and everyone gets over it if they just donā€™t quit and give up. I hardly see any traders who have been trading 5+ years that still have a problem with emotions affecting their trades. Be patient with yourself :slight_smile:

:smiley:

Yes i have seen his post on that, good stuff! Iā€™ll work on that right away. Iā€™d see how my trading goes next week and iā€™ll keep you updated. Iā€™ll list down the habits i need to change and see what else i can improve on emotionally and strategically (well that requires trial and error and time).

Yes i do understand tymen SL is quite different from your teaching, however yours require a more pro active role, i believe i have understand what you have taught. Iā€™ll put it to test next week and see how i fare. With a change of mindset, i believe iā€™ll make it.

Iā€™ll keep you updated most defintely!

Great stuff gasanvill! Good to see youā€™re doing great! :smiley:

This is really the correct point to move a stop loss to BE if you are doing this. :slight_smile:

With a 2 contract method, the 1st profit is taken out at R:R, and over a long period, the losses = 1st contract profits, leaving the 2nd contract as overall profit.
A single contract method loses over a long period of time because of the inherant house edge against you in forex.

This house edge against you is generated firstly, by the spread, and secondly and very importantly, by the nature of the sheer competition for pips amongst the traders in forex.
(A bit like seagulls going for fish + chips on the beach!! :p).

As you can see the results for this week were good. This is the first time that i feel that wasnĀ“t luck.
I have a feeling that every profit i made in the last months, i was just lucky.

Thanks Graviton for taking the time and giving as such great advices

Good to see that you are making tangible progress at last, [B]gasanvill[/B]. :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Of course, [B]Graviton [/B]needs to take the credit here!!

Not trading retracements just has to do with my own personal style and nothing more. Many trade retracements and do quite well. I use the break in a retracement trend line as an entry point to the long term trend. I do occasionally trade retracements when they are well established, but for me itā€™s rare. Like I said, many trade them and do quite well, so each to their own on trading retracements. Note though that every retracement except the last one ends eventually and returns to the long term trend.