Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading

Didn’t trade today and decided to finish my pdf on the thread, you can download here:

Another edited and compiled PDF with bookmarks and everything already completed? You’re a beast, dude. For real.
:cool:

I’ll go to the timeframe where I can see the price action the best. Often that may require me to drop down one, two or even three timeframes, depending on what I’m looking at. For instance, what appears as just a pin bar top extreme candle on a 4H chart can be a whole series of higher lows and higher highs on a lower timeframe. Seeing that I can be more confident that if the next low is lower the the previous low, it is indeed a top, but if the next low doesn’t make it lower than the previous low, then this may not truly be a top, that is, the uptrend defined by a series of higher lows has not broken, so a higher high could be yet to come. In that case I would be reluctant to take a short trade at that point. I’d usually only go as far down as the 15M or 5M to drill down on price action. I may glance down to a 1M occasionally, but I don’t believe it has much effect on my trading, except for news trading, which is another subject.

So use the time frame that shows best what price action is doing. That doesn’t mean you are trading the 5M, which I generally don’t recommend, you are just using it to get more detailed information on price action than you could get from a higher and more compressed timeframe.

On your question on the AU trade, the AUD is strong due to hedge fund buying according to forexlive and other sources. The higher TF’s are also trending up, so I was looking for a reason to go long. I couldn’t go short against higher TF’s per my trading rules anyway. If you are speaking of the trade I’m thinking of, I believe the only au trade I entered long on a 1H 2cbl, the 1H midband was just flat, not pointing against me at all and the trade was taken long off a 2cbl off the bottom BB in a 50 pip wide squeeze, when the 4H midband was trending up strongly. Adding all that up seemed to be a good long trade. I like 2 cbl’s :slight_smile:

That trade was really taken with the intent that if it worked it would put me in a good low risk position to ride the 4H trend upward for a few days. Note that the daily is also now at the top of the band. Will it breakout and give me a nice BB walk up for days or a week or two or longer? I haven’t a clue. All I can do is put myself in a position of minimal risk and take advantage of it if it does, or take my profit and run if it doesn’t. That’s what I do over and over, try to find some way that with very little risk I can put myself in a position to make mega pips. If it doesn’t work I’ll take my very small loss, or BE or small win of 50 to 100 pips and go merrily on my way. But if it works, as it will about 1 in 100 times coming off the 1H, WOO HOO! Then we have a whole new ballgame. Then we are looking at putting on more lots about every 50 to 100 pips and walking away a week later with hundreds or thousands of pips.

This is the way I enter daily trades, either directly off a good 4H trade or off 1H trade. Very rarely, a daily trade takes off and I move it to a position trade and trade it for weeks or months. But at no time do I ever ride out a retracement of more than 50% of my profit, because you have to cut your losses off somewhere. So if I’m 50 pips ahead on the 1H and it retraces 25 pips, I’ll exit with my 25 pips. I may look for another entry after the retracement is over though if I still believe it’s a good trade. If I’m up 100 pips and moved up from the 1H to 4H and get a 50 pip retracement, I’ll exit. Now I may exit way before that on a 20 or 30 pip retracement, since it only costs a few pips spread to re-enter, but 1/2 of my profit is a hard limit.

So my trading is always with higher time frames in mind. I’d dearly love to be trading the weekly chart all the time and make thousands of pips on every trade, but I don’t want to risk the 400 pips sl to get in. So I’ll enter a 1H or 4H and try to walk it up. Essentially, all of my day trading is fishing for cheap entries to longer time frame trades and making sure I’m well paid for my time fishing. Most of the time it doesn’t work and I exit with a very small loss on a bad entry or a BE on a good trade turned bad, or 1/2 of a small profit of 50 to 100 pips. But in the 1 in 100 times it does work, it’s a beautiful thing.

To conclude, I may go all the way down to the 15M or even to the 5M to time the entry for a 1H or 4H trade, but all that is a means to an end, which is to trade for days, weeks or months with a very cheap entry on a good swing or position trade. If you practice a lot, study hard, and have nothing better to do with your time, you can get a couple or few good swing trades most weeks, and a good position trade every couple months or so. Of course, it all starts with a good entry on a 1H or 4H timeframe trade, and you can’t get ahead of yourself. Either the trade comes to you or it doesn’t and there is no magic method to turn a trade worth only 30 pips into one worth hundreds or thousands. If all the market gives you is 30 pips you take it and go happily on your way. And of course, you can’t lose all your capital on bad trades before you have the chance at a mega trade, or you won’t be around for the mega trade. But on the rare occasion the market gives you 300 pips, you don’t want to exit with only 30 and watch from the sidelines while the market trends for another 300. So staying in a trade as long as you have 50% or more of your profit, even if you have to exit and re-enter several times, is one way to make sure you never let a good win turn into a loss, while still buying that lottery ticket cheaply for a possible really good swing or position trade.

Really awesome, thanks Hordane.

great pdf Hordane, thanks

Thank you for the PDF Hordane. Great work!!!

Thanks Hordane - awesome job.:smiley: Much nicer than the document I have.

Hordane, thank you you pdfs are the best on this entire forum!

Thanks hordanee! That’s gotta be one of the best pdf i’ve come across! Clear and concise baby.

Should be named " the finest in pdf making " ha ha ha.

I kept my trades over the weekend. We’ll just have to wait and see if it was a good idea. I can’t understand your question about price breaking a downtrend level. Please post a chart with your question. Glad to see you are getting some good trades :slight_smile:

Hey graviton! Thanks for your detailed explanation!

Yes i do think your “take 50% of profit” hard rule is a good one!

I remember you saying recently you would take off your lots by the heaviest one first. Meaning probably the first 2 lots?

Could you shed some light on when you would decide to take them off?

I hope you have a great weekend with you and your family, a long weekend that is! :smiley:

Thanks Fartist. Having a great weekend with Bar-B-Que and family.

I described taking the 1st lot off with 2 X SL profit when the 4th lot is put on near the beginning of this thread. After that I pull lots off the top with 2 X SL profit and put new ones on bottom and continue until the trend ends. All trends come to an end. You should be expecting that to happen. When it does all three lots running will start giving back pips. If they stop out, you break even on those three lots and the profits you took off earlier are yours to keep.

Let me know if you have any more questions :slight_smile:

Hi Graviton,

I just caught up with this thread. I feel strong like a bull! I will have some Q’s but have first much re-reading to do to organize my thoughts after this amazing journey. I found Forex in late May, BP & Tymen in mid Aug, and now am current w/both of you - how lucky can one be? Jeeze, what a whirlwind! Now the real work begins. I like the ‘never worked in my life’: well, for me, here on will have to do.

Maybe you guys can obtain accreditation and send out degrees. :slight_smile:

Your legacy is already in place as I already consider you Sen Sai, but maybe that grandchild will carry on as well.

Muchos Gracias!
Needy

I truly love this whole comminity which also desreves credit for the Q & A that goes on, the implementation of the supporting technology, and focus on improvement. In my not-too-long-ago ‘employed’ life i spent some years in the on-line collaborative environment and am convinced it the basis for continued efficiency and productivity gains. Thank you all for putting Grav to the test! :smiley:

N

Ahh yes i remember you mentioned taking off your first lot with 30 pips profit, something like that. Lol, journey has been a long one till i forgot some of the earlier posts we discussed long ago! Heh, i would try taking of my lots at 2 times SL. Let’s see how it goees!

Do you have some sort of hard rule like exiting all lots on a trade when you make a certain % on that trade. Or would you just let it go on till your remmaining lots hit BE?

Say maybe 3 times SL? I think thats the max i ever went in one trade :stuck_out_tongue:

De nada. If my grandchild is interested, you can be sure he will receive the most patient and detailed tutoring I can provide. If not, then I’ll just have to accept that.

I do believe that if you complete babypips school, read Tymen’s thread, and read mine, you can cut your learning time in about half. It still takes practice though. For most people, I’d say a minimum of 2 years of practice is needed. I don’t know of any way to do this without the practice. As I’ve said before, it’s just like playing basketball. You can study under the best coaches in the world and understand every offense and defense and every possible aspect of the game inside out, but to be good at the game, you must get on the court and practice it and you must practice it the way you want to play it.

If you want to see how Tymen’s system can work out with real live trading day in and day out, check out Pip Bandit’s trading journal and log here at:

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/35384-pipbandits-bollinger-dna-trade-journal.html

I believe PipBandit has a little more than one year’s trading experience. It is extraordinary for someone to produce those kind of results after only one year’s practice. For most of us mere mortals, 2 to 5 years practice are required to make a trader. But perhaps there is a path that can shorten that journey somewhat. I saw no such path and bare the deep scars of monster drawdowns, heartbreaking losses and wasted years of lifespan chasing fools gold. I’m sure those hard years shape my perceptions to this day.

As enticing as the goal of being a successful trader is, you must really strive to enjoy the journey. You’ll only get to pass this way one time and then you will reflect on it the rest of your trading career. I’d suggest trying to make those happy thoughts :slight_smile:

Thanks for the praise Graviton :slight_smile: I’ve exactly 1 year’s trading experience though I tend to monitor things fairly closely in work (all praise Alt-Tab) and I’ll pore over things some more in the evenings also so it’s been a busy year. I work for a large financial company also so the markets aren’t a complete unknown.

To be honest I think it’s threads like yours, Tymen’s and others that can really help to speed things along if the person can open their minds to the information and try to apply what they’ve learned. Maybe in the end they’ll come up with what suits them best but a lot of time can be saved by not trying to reinvent the wheel and getting a very solid framework handed on a plate to them. In the beginning I didn’t I get this. I opened up a live account after about 7 months and blew €1,000 within a month. Didn’t have a proper system to follow and wasn’t ready for the psychological side of trading. Getting help from more experienced traders on a system to use and practical trading tips has been very beneficial for me.

It wasn’t until I’d lost the money and gotten a kick in the teeth from the market that I really began to try to soak up the information that was always there in front of me. Maybe some people can avoid having to go through this but I think I needed the lesson. Having a system that clearly defines your trading is so important I now realise. I’d read it before on Babypips and elsewhere but it hadn’t sunk in.

So, all in all I don’t think I’m anything special. The hard work has been done by others and I’m just piggy-backing off it. You just have to be ready to put in the time in front of the screen on a regular basis, apply what you’ve learned and enjoy it. I’ve still got plenty of learning to soak up but it’s good to finally have found something that I really want to do.

Hi Graviton
Since that time I am on rehab trading 1 pip 10 cents, now I can see some improvments, I am getting happy also :), thanks to you!

here is short trade I took on friday, its H4 chart -chf-jpy

there are red uptrend line, support level in blue, also I have placed fibo levels, black trend line is uptrend line that going from may 25th and BBands (20,1) and (20,2)

can you place explain how to target the profit? I would like to see how do you think (as you were teaching how to think analyzing) please

thanks :slight_smile:

Often some of my trading goals are in conflict and my job is to resolve that conflict in a way the minimizes risk to my trading capital, and yet gives me a reasonable chance of success, but not this time.

Say you are trading 20 pip stop loss (it could be 12 or 40, depending on the pair, timeframe and market volatility, but chose 20 for this example).

You will take the 1st lot off at 2 X SL or +40 pips, and put the 4th lot on at the same time. The second lot SL is moved to +20, the third lot SL is moved to BE and of course, the fourth lot, the new one you just put on, has a risk of a -20 SL.

Now we know if we give back more than 1/2 of our profit, we will exit all lots and take our profit and smile all the way to the bank. That means that until those three lots go up a combined +40, we have half our profit in our pocket and we are willing to take a stopout of all three lots in the case of a quick move against us. For the three lots to go up a combined +40, the price only has to go up 40/3= approx 13 pips. That means if price goes up less than 13, you take the stopout if price reverses, Meaning you have exited with 1/2 of your profit or better.

But for anything over another +13 move up in price, our rules require us to take half the the incremental profit, which is 1/2 (50% profit required) of 1/3rd (three lots running) of additional price movement up, or 1/6th the incremental price move up. So if price moves up an additional 6 pips up, for a total 19 pips up in price move, we would be required to move our stops up 1 pip on each of the three lots still running.

We can do that, if we have the time, but at one more pip up in price move and we will be at +20 pips since the 4th lot was put on and the 2nd lot will be at tp of +40. So without even making inbetween sl moves, we would still be taking off the 2nd lot with another +40 pips profit , moving the third lot sl to +20, moving the 4th lot to BE, and putting on the 5th lot with sl of -20.

It’s rare to get a trade that good, especially in slow summer trading. but trading the 4H during better trading times of the year, those trades will come around fairly often. But you can see that everything is automatic through putting that 5th lot on. Above that 5th lot, things change a bit.

Above the 5th lot, you have 80 pips profit in your pocket, so price would have to move up another 80/3=approx 26 pips up before our 50% rule would kick in. So the 50% rule will not kick in before the 3rd lot on bottom goes to +40 and we remove it with profit and move the 4th lot to +20 and the 5th lot to BE and put on another 6th lot. I get these trades often during the good trading seasons and trading 4H or above. Very rarely during the summer and trading 1H or below.

When you get there, and you will if you trade this system long enough, you have three choices. (1.)You can continue taking 40 pip lots off the top and putting 20 pips sl lots on the bottom, running three lots. There’s nothing wrong with that, it brought you this far and at least you are taking a reasonable profit as you go so you won’t ever give it all back. (2.) Or, you can let your sl widen to the point you would be right on the 50% profit rule when you take profit, or +26 pips increase in price as calculated in the paragraph above, vs. the usual 20. Also a good choice, though a little more agressive, since you are now only risking some profit to make more profit and still following the 50% rule. (3.) Or you can go very agressive and put an additional lot on and ride 4 instead of three, a very agressive position. In any case, you never take an action that will cause the remaining lots to stop out in a quick sharp move against you at less than BE. How agressive you wish to be depends on your confidence in the trend you are trading. You need to create a set of rules for yourself that will default to (1.) and under some conditions that only occur about one in 4 times move you to (2.) and conditions that only occur in about 1 in 10 times or so move you to (3.) or something like that.

The critical point, and I can’t stress this enough is, once you have taken that first lot of profit off and removed all risk from your trade, [B]you never take even 1 pip of risk in your trade for any reason after that.[/B] If you fail to adhere to this most critical principal, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down very quickly and take your account and confidence with it.

Happy trading :slight_smile:

Just want to say hi to you all,just started reading this thread,been buzy with Tymen’s thread for awhile now from the start!
I wont cheat and jump any pages,will go though all posts and try to do the excersises!

I do like your style and humour Graviton,you made me laugh when you started with your comments earlier in(months ago now for you) Tymens thread about the Germans bombing Pearl Harbour and saying sorry to all germans,pearlharbarians and people with and without charts!

I might cheat a little bit but will see if i can do most!

Hope to catch up soon!