Hello Jake,
great blog article!
I like the ‘It’s the stairs on the way up, and the elevator on the way down’!
So, when will you be shorting it… will you wait for confirmation from other Yen crosses?
Cheers
PS- I was on holiday…
Thanks F!
Glad to see you back.
I’m a bit exposed right now and tied up in other positions, so unless I see something contrary to my current trades I have on, I may need to wait and join the potential selling a bit late to the party.
I have on a few really solid short CADs and long AUD right now and they are sitting well in positive territory with daily benefits of roll (short EURAUD primarily).
Well, traders!
The RBNZ just announced a rate hike of 0.25%:
being in line with the majority’s expectation,
it provoked a sell-off spanning 75 pips in one
five-minute candle (from 9pm GMT)…
This is a beauty:
Well, traders!
We are loitering around the 85 - 85.50 level with this pair…
Since my article (http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/guest_commentary/2014/04/18/A-Historic-Bear-Move-Setting-up-in-NZDJPY.html) six months ago, the pair has dropped at least 500 pips, having bounced off the historic level of 90.00; we are now in what could be described as a consolidating channel to the downside, having touched its bottom this
week (see daily chart below):
Having shorted this pair just below 85.00 yesterday through an entry order, and having been stopped out at -88 pips, I have placed another entry order just below yesterday’s level (around 84.69), waiting for the next leg of this down-move…
However, should the channel hold, I may wait until the pair reached the top of the channel, or as close to it, before setting up a short entry (or market) order to capture not only further continuation of this bear trend but also the width of this channel.
Happy trading.
Hello, traders!
As per previous post, I am waiting to see if my entry order may be triggered; here is where we are at, tonight, with this pair:
Dropping below the 200-day moving average on the 25th of September, kiwi fell in Japan to a new 100-day low on the 2nd session afterward. That was the perfect moment for Arbitrager on Acid to drop it (short it) like a microdot. But since then there has been no effects typical of LSD (Lettuce Score Descent, the quantifiable phenomenon wherein half or more of the sessions in a given string of sessions show lower lows). In fact, the 3-day range has contracted from 380 pips on 9/29 to 140 pips on 10/2, and pupil constriction is not what you want after dropping quality acid. Hopefully in the coming session or so pupils will dilate and the LSD trip can come on.
May you all, my fellow capitalists, find enlightenment in all your trips and inner peace in a growing NAV.
Hello traders!
Just a quick update… This pair has been finally getting a move on, and heading South, as hoped/predicted/dreamt/analysed (delete as applicable)…
The important thing is that I have been making money off it, with several overlapping trades, one of which banked me 100 pips, the other about 90, and the third and fourth growing gradually …
I encourage you to have this pair into your sights because it is not just a mere reversal…it is looking like a serious trend to the downside…
Cheers
PS - I have been on and off ForexTown because I am moving house, so it has been busy (to say the least). x
Thank you, Emerald… I am sorry that I have not been keeping up with you and GP on the other (volume) thread… Your ‘TradeView’ charts look very professional but also quite complex! I would need some tuition 
Now, back to NZD/JPY: updating from a few posts up, here is the same forming trend/bear channel on the daily chart; we
are definitely coming to the bottom of it, so SHORTS may be late coming in, unless it breaks… Prepare stops etc. in case
you just got in today/yesterday and your trades bounce back off the bottom of the trend/channel:
PS: I am using FXCM trading software, so all the green arrows are trades ‘in the green’
Bunk LSD. Taking just a 10.5 pip gain, this drop gave only a tiny tracer and no meaningful trip. With the commission and swap costs, this trip actually had a net negative effect on the total account value of a 5 basis point loss. But, as the price dropped to a new low today, a new dose was dropped. Come on LSD…
Sadly, this time the arrows are ‘red’ because I had losses, which confirms to me, especially when you look at the blue candle forming today on the chart below, that we are indeed at the bottom of a channel and that
the pair could bounce… We will need to wait and see where this goes; should it bounce, we will look for opportunities to either buy the dip and sell from the top, or just wait for the next move down, whichever seems more appropriate.
Thank you!
It s pretty expensive to keep NZD/YEN short… better to check the swap points and what the bookies are charging.
Quite! I am having to do intra-day shorting for this as holding a short position over time is quite expensive!
Hello traders!
Patience rewards! After much ‘chop’,
I finally caught a technical move to the downside, six
days from the previous one:
Well, traders, this pair has come up a long way since my last entry!
However, we are seeing a significant dip across all Yen crosses and the USD/JPY: could this signal a turn?
Look at the NZD/JPY in the last couple of days:
You trade from Mobile ? What is the app ?
Aye, I do!
The app is FXCM mobile trading…
Sadly the Nzd/Jpy still keeps on rising…
and there is no telling how far it will go…
NZD/JPY Trading at its Highest Level since July 2007