My article on trading a NZD/JPY long-term reversal to the downside

Hello traders,

this article of mine got published today, and I thought to share it with you:

A “Historic” Bear Move Setting up in NZD/JPY | DailyFX



So you’re indeed short in the “trade of a lifetime” huh? good article… I hope you will post insights about how it’s going on. But maybe you don’t if things go well and retire to Bahamas LOL

Congrats my friend!

Cheers Ivanyo and Milos… Well, I am not certain of anything, but I certainly looking at this one as a trade with a high probability… Bahamas or no Bahamas…


Nice article with some good info! I will be watching

Hello quincyb45… The pair has almost stalled… I entered near 88.00, seeing that the reverse had already begun, but the pair has been in a lull due to the Easter holidays and it has swung backwards and forwards within a 40-pip range in the last 48 hours…

I am sure that with the rate decision on Wednesday night something will definitely happen…


Great article, bud!

Do you think the current fundamental environment of the Kiwi and the yen are supportive of a massive bearish move? What do you think are possible catalysts for such a move? Also, what charting software did you use?


Hello pipdiddy, and thank you! I will keep this brief, as I am typing this on my 'phone. I have already briefly outlined the NZD fundamentals in my article, so let me shift to those on the JPY side, by forwarding you this very recent article on the Japanese economy:
The Twilight Of The Rising Sun - The Automatic Earth

While it is not certain that the JPY will rise, forward-looking markets in carry trades have already moved in response to the BoJ inability to scale up its already massive stimulus effort: you only have to look at the recent drop in USD/JPY down to the 101.50 resistance level to know that yen-crosses devaluation is indeed at play.

Furthermore, if you looked at this Yen-crosses comparative table spanning 2012-2013 (I could not find the most updated version, but this is just as illustrative) created by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist at,, you will see that although the NZD/JPY is not the most exposed pair, it is part of a carry trade market that is seriously overpriced: the right risk-aversion fundamental spark, of a strength that would finally see the S&P500 end its multi-year bull run as well as pop the yen-crosses bubble, is yet to materialise, but it is a real threat to these assets…

Ps: my charts are made in FXCM, Trading Station…

Nice analysis Francesco. and thanks for the heads up on the Res level. Will certainly be spending a couple of days analysing this

Thank you, GRIX FX!

NZD/JPY is currently pushing past the 88.00 mark, this time, maybe, for good…

This is a long-term projection, of course, so it will not come in a straight line… There may well be big turns to the upside,

but as long as the overall picture is maintained and confirmed, any swing up to a couple of hundred pips against a

bearish bias would not automatically invalidate the overall plan if the projected gains, as highlighted in my article,

are in the thousands… If this were a move spanning two to three years, it may be a case of exercising a lot of

patience to watch it unfold, and managing it appropriately (either by scaling in, or adding to the existing position,

or trailing the stop manually/automatically to lock in gains as the trend develops)…

Again, nothing is certain in Forex, so I will only hold on to this reading if the facts align with my projection over the

next few months…


The NZD/JPY has reached the 55 day Exponential Moving Average around the 87.42 level. We may see a bounce from this zone to the upside. However, if price continues to go lower, a visit of the 86.31 level should give us a higher probability of a change in direction.

NZD/JPY short is gathering conviction and is now about 50 pips in the money… Too early to say if this is finally the right time to see it pick up pace (to the downside), but it is only Monday and the US markets have not opened yet…

Three cheers!

After that multi-decade level (90.00) held strong on the first of April, this pair has gathered a tumbling momentum to the downside; currently at 87.81, it has validated a credible bear bias, based on RBNZ talking down the currency and the market pricing in its well-forecast rate hikes. . .

With two hundred and twenty pips of dovish journeying under its belt, the Kiwi-Yen is set for a steady decline, for the time being, as there seems to be no fundamental item on the horizon which may give it back its former strength, neither from the NZD side nor from the JPY side.

We shall continue to watch this pair and keep track of developments, but for the time being we remain confidently bearish.

Good article Mr. Congrats on writing such a great article. Thanks

I’m long @ 87.98 :slight_smile:

The move from 5/7/2014 - 5/9/2014 was weak and lacked supporting momentum intraday; I’m not convinced sellers are committed here just yet.

It looks like 88 is holding for now.

Hello Jake!

Yes, absolutely! I am looking at this NZD/JPY to the downside as a long-term move, but all longs are perfectly possible in the shorter term!!! Go for it! Good luck, and, as I am wont to say…


My NZD/JPY latest short closed this morning, catching a run down from

87.96 to 87.15, bagging me 80.5 pips.

Currently at 87.00…

Next entry order is waiting a few pips below…

JPY crosses are exposed right now- big time. All on the verge of making key tech breaks.
NZDJPY is sitting just above the 100 D1 EMA.

I preferred NZDJPY to the downside a few days ago, but got into USDJPY instead. Latter chart looked just a bit cleaner to me, and there’s no need to double up on risk.

Good morning everyone!

Currently, NZD/JPY is around 86.50, having broken the 87.00 level this morning with a quick sell-off,

IN PARALLEL WITH GBP/USD (interesting) and other Yen crosses…

There is some significant technical resistance around this level, from an early-April channel floor, but also

from an end-August rising trend-line; however, my overall bias is still bearish in the long term.

Has anyone else traded this pair or set up entry orders?

Happy trading!

Yo F-

Haven’t seen you in a while.
I was thinking about you as I was writing my latest blog entry.
I’ve finally warmed up to your bearish bias on NZDJPY!

Check it out- FXU BLOG