My EUR/USD Analysis


This is just my opinion on where the euro will be going in the long term

With a Long term elliot wave study applied to the 1M chart, we can see that the price is retracing from the 1.6 2008 high. We can also see that we are in wave C of the retracement.

A shorter-term analysis done on the 1D chart shows us that Wave 1 of Wave C is now complete. The price will most likely retrace to the 38.2% level, then extend in another 5 wave cycle to form a third wave. I predict that the retracement will be at about 1.35, followed by an extension that will take it well bellow the 2009 low of 1.245, and perhaps all the way down to 1.125 - 1.085 before making a major retracement. The good news for the greenback is that the euro could fall bellow 1 within the next 2 years.

Just my 2 cents.

It seems plausible, but isn’t the third line supposed to be the longest in an Elliott Wave?

if your refering to the 1st chart then yeah, the impulse wave looks a little inacurate, but the point of it was to say that it is a long wave a-b-c retracement
(what a lot of people call a “recession”). If your talking about the large 5th wave on the 1d chart, this was caused by panic selling.

My analysis has led me to issue this recomendation: sell @ 1.35, S/L @ 1.46, T/P @ 1.1230 use 5X acount size, and add units after each retracement if your av. margin has balanced out.

Alright, seems fair enough, I like this analysis; it seems to be correct so far.

Came across this EW video on Youtube and thought it was worth sharing.

Yeah this is the way I do it too, I look at the 1M chart before finding the shorter term pattern in the 1D chart.

The eur/usd seems to be heading down down baby. I would love to see more price action signals to get into trades. But the trend is obviously down. Ill be looking for trades on the short side.

The Euro had reach the lowst level in 18 months at this time at the 1.2389 level, and it has rebound a little bit from the loest today at 1.2361 level. It seems the Euro is not going to win against the usd dllar, and the bad news continue, now France is telling that they may leave the Euro zone, there are rumors that France will be downgrade. So it seems the Euro is having a lot of trouble, the next support is at 1.18, so will see if next week will the ECB make some moves to favor the Euro

After the retrace up to 1.2600 (MAY 24) I have shorted again, back into the trend, take profit is at 1.2200

Some of my views. I think there is allot of wayes to count this wave.:confused:

As long as you trade what you see you will be alright.

This looks like a fairly straight forward count.

Here is the strategy for the next week

BUY Limit @ 1.2152 (at our baseline)
SL 1.2130
TP 1.2220

SELL Stop @ 1.2130 (SL from BUY Pending Order)
SL 1.2160
TP 1.2010

So, Question why???
Answer: Next week testing the Base at 1.2152

1. The base was strong 2 times now, if the base hold we have a clearly buy signal the target is 1.2220 cause this is a resistance point. An another “risky” way : TP Open an wait if we reach the downtrandline.

2. More than 20 pips under the base is a clearly sell signal.
Reason: psychological effect. If the base is broken we see the next target in the 1.2000 region.The downtrandline cuts the basline. So we havent got enough range for a buy order.

Hey guys, I see two problems with that elliot wave analysis.

  1. The third wave is the shortest
  2. The 4th wave dips down into the price region of the 2nd wave.

I don’t use elliot wave however I believe it works. Those are two of the three rules that mustn’t be broken in any EW analysis. If they’re broken then your count is wrong.

More is explained if you’re willing to fork out a lot of $$$ for the elliot wave DVD’s. I’m sure you can find the basic rules for free if you google search them.

Look up Forex Predictions,