So I entered this for a quick scalp and several hours later I am back in profit. I won’t hold it long this time.
J
Congrats on bagging some pips there although that looks quite risky.
I got into that trade very early, so it was still early enough in the day to have a decent break but it quickly backed up against me. I don’t really think it was a dangerous trade, but certainly not a good one as it turned out.
On closer inspection I concur with you. Well, there is always a better deal coming. Hope you have found a way or trick to help you trade during the London session.
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This is my analysis of where the charts are now. Obviously the market can and will do anything it wants. This is the way I trade so if it helps, great! Do your own Homework!
Summary of EUR/USD Analysis
Current Trend and Levels:
• Trend: The EUR/USD pair is in a strong downtrend across the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts.
• Key Levels:
• Support: Around 1.0843, the low of the day.
• Resistance: Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.0855 (23.6%), 1.0863 (38.2%), 1.0870 (50%), and 1.0880 (61.8%).
Trade Considerations for the Next Trading Day:
Bearish Scenario (Continuation):
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Entry: Consider short positions if the price breaks below the low of the day (1.0843) with strong momentum or if it breaks and then retests this area as resistance.
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Stop Loss: Place above significant resistance levels or the recent high to manage risk.
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Take Profit: Target recent lows and potential extension levels beyond the current low of the day.
Bullish Scenario (Reversal/Bounce):
- Entry: Consider long positions if:
• The price tests the low of the day (1.0843) several times and then moves off it, indicating strong support.
• The price breaks above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.0855) with strong momentum and then retests this area as support.
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Stop Loss: Place below the recent low (1.0843) to manage risk.
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Take Profit: Target the next resistance levels, starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (1.0863) and higher levels at 1.0870 and 1.0880.
Key Points to Monitor:
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Price Action: Watch for strong momentum and clear breakouts or retests around key levels (1.0843 for support and 1.0855 for initial resistance).
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Volume: Look for increased volume on breakouts to confirm the strength of the move.
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Indicators: RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting caution but not necessarily indicating an immediate reversal. ATR indicates high volatility.
Conclusion:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a strong downtrend. For short positions, look for a decisive break below the low of the day or a break and retest. For long positions, watch for multiple tests of the low indicating strong support, or a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci level followed by a retest. Stay disciplined with stop losses and adjust your strategy based on price action and market conditions.
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Nice analysis, with an appropriate caveat. I like the fact you consider two probable scenarios as the markets can change direction at any moment. That is what I also consider in my own analysis. I did mine yesterday for the expected market direction of today. From my analysis, I wouldn’t be a buyer for now even if price seems to go up. The bearish pressure just became much stronger owing to the no-demand bar (absence of buyers) on the daily chart with a bearish candle confirming it (it is a vsa thing). Of course, we will see upmoves per the red folder EU reports of the day intended to shake sellers out of the market and attract buyers, before the dump that will guzzle their stoplosses providing the fuel for lower prices. I am in the trade now, by the way.
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EU proceeding as anticipated. Strong bearish momentum. Expecting to see lower prices especially after witnessing the strong move down backed by volume surge. Haven’t locked-in profits at the moment.
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I woke up to see if I could catch that move but I just never trade when there is so much news coming out that could potentially whipsaw and leave you sad. I saw it as it was happening and thought about jumping in but just didn’t. Good job to pick up that move and I would say that was brave.
Fortunately I did catch some pips from the NZD/USD and it’s been my go to during this summer range we have been it.
PS I just uploaded the current chart. The entire move was news. Wow!
Great job,
J
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Well, unfortunately, I was taken out by the upmove though it was expected. I would have locked-in some pips after that down candle. I wanted to give the trade some room to breathe. Win some, lose some. With the PMI news at the corner it is better to just sit this one out. I will not take any other position until I see a significant change of sentiment on the 4-hour chart. Good trading on the NU pair.
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I think this summer range is very hard to trade. Of all the currency pairs I look at or trade, which are few, they are pretty much where they began the day. Even if you go to the 4 hour or Daily charts and measure the latest bear moves, they are barely over 100 pips and that is over several days. It’s not easy to make money in this environment. But trading like this keeps us sharp.
My very simple goal in my trading is to earn more than I would if I had left my money in a standard savings account and I am doing that, so goal met.
Hey, we are alive, markets will move again. We have another opportunity today into tomorrow.
Good luck,
J
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Well-said. I couldn’t agree more. The idea is to keep grinding.
Speaking of my loss earlier, I was going through fundednext charts and I saw a stark difference in the volume feed from that of hotforex, the broker I use. I was shocked to find that fundednext’s volume seems to be more accurate in comparison. It gave warning in advance of demand entering the market where I would have exited my short position and initiated a long position. The readings seem to tally on other occasions except this. It was a real classic opportunity to buy had I been watching fundednext’s charts.
No need crying over spilt milk. I think, going forward, I shall be using it to confirm the reading I get from hotforex’ server. Thing is, I trade blind without volume and any volume discrepancy will spell losses for me as it did today.
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Bearish momentum resumed after the trap-upmove as I said. I knew the news would only be used to trap traders into buying and the Smart Money will dump it when they are done selling to the buyers. Classic distribution. I would have scalped the upmove but for the late realization of volume difference in brokers.
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These are my findings going into the next trading day. They are a little boring and generic because the trading has been mostly sideways with the exception of a 30 pip run. Not the big breakouts and trends we like to see. I would say the longterm trend is still bullish using the daily and the short-term trend is still bearish. I currently have no bias. I will say, if we are going to continue back up, we had a perfect 61.8 retracement of the last up move. This hasn’t changed a lot so be careful, successful trading to all and remember, this is my analysis for the way I trade.
Detailed EUR/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis and Trade Considerations
Key Levels:
• Current Low (Today): 1.0825
• Current High (Today): 1.0866
• Next Resistance Level: 1.0897
Technical Analysis:
15-Minute Chart:
• Trend: Downtrend with a recent upward correction.
• Support/Resistance: Immediate support at 1.0825, resistance at 1.0866 and 1.0897.
• Indicators:
• ATR: Moderate volatility, suggesting manageable risk levels.
• RSI: Approaching neutral, indicating potential room for upward or downward movement.
• MACD: Shows a possible bullish crossover, signaling a potential short-term upward movement.
1-Hour Chart:
• Trend: Predominantly bearish with minor pullbacks.
• Support/Resistance: Immediate support at 1.0825, with resistance at 1.0897.
• Indicators:
• RSI: Near 40, indicating oversold conditions which might lead to a short-term bounce.
• MACD: Flattening, suggesting the bearish momentum is slowing down.
4-Hour Chart:
• Trend: The downtrend continues, with recent candles indicating consolidation.
• Support/Resistance: Key support around 1.0825 and resistance at 1.0897.
• Indicators:
• RSI: Near 38, in bearish territory but not oversold.
• MACD: Negative but with a potential for reducing bearish pressure.
Daily Chart:
• Trend: Long-term uptrend intact above 1.0800, but the current short-term trend is down.
• Support/Resistance: Critical support at 1.0825, psychological and technical resistance at 1.0897.
• Indicators:
• RSI: Near 50, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further moves in either direction.
• MACD: Positive but with decreasing momentum, indicating caution for bullish trades.
Fundamental Considerations:
Upcoming Economic Events (July 25, 2024):
• Europe: Key releases include the German Ifo Business Climate, M3 Money Supply, and ECB President Lagarde’s speech.
• USA: Critical data points include Advance GDP, Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders, and Durable Goods Orders.
These high-impact economic indicators are likely to influence EUR/USD volatility, particularly the GDP data and ECB remarks. It is crucial to monitor these releases for unexpected outcomes that could lead to significant market movements.
Trade Considerations:
Upside Scenario:
• Entry: On a confirmed breakout above 1.0866 with strong volume, targeting 1.0897.
• Stop Loss: Below 1.0866 to manage risk.
• Indicators to Watch: Look for RSI to break above 50 and MACD to turn bullish for confirmation.
Downside Scenario:
• Entry: If the price breaks below 1.0825, consider short positions targeting lower support levels.
• Stop Loss: Just above 1.0825 to minimize risk.
• Indicators to Watch: RSI dropping below 40 and MACD indicating increased bearish momentum.
Conclusion:
Given the upcoming economic events and current technical setup, the EUR/USD pair is positioned for potential volatility. Traders should prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios, depending on the market’s reaction to key support and resistance levels, as well as the economic data releases. Adjust trading strategies accordingly, considering the increased risk
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Very detailed and precise market analysis. I see you are poised for whatever the market does. I must say, I admire your system. Mechanical and fundamental factors work together to help you make informed decisions.
Well, I have been bearish since the beginning of the week, and still bearish now especially because of the price action of yesterday. The upmove had no backing since there was no demand for the Euro which is why it failed. I am currently looking for sell opportunities. Money is flowing from AUD and EUR into the USD signifying a risk-off setting. Traders are playing it safe. I wouldn’t be expecting a bullish move just yet knowing this. However, sentiments do change and, along with it, our bias. That is how we keep on our toes as traders. Hope you catch much pips in your pip-fishing net today.
I was able to get up and watch the charts in what is my early morning. I took a short trade on the USD/Jpy and was up about 20 pips and it just backed right up on me. I got 10 because I wasn’t going to lose them all. I have been watch the trades on ForexFactory and I am amazed at how many people are trading when the price is only moving 3 or 4 pips back and forth. I saw a lot of losers trading in both directions. Without price action, it is nothing but a guess in my opinion… There is some news coming out in a bit and that should get things moving but I don’t know if you can trade it. Sometimes the best trade is the one you didn’t take!
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Any profit, however little, does much good to an account than a loss or expected gain. I will take 5 or 10 pips any day over an expected unrealised gain, much less a loss.
I guess those people trading a less than 5-pips range can only be scalpers. The fact is trading is difficult in many respects, but there are sets of people who make it more difficult for themselves by not following a strict set of rules for entries and exits. That may explain their chasing the markets in both directions and having their accounts bleed from their lack of discipline.
I am on the sidelines today for EU while watching the market as it unfolds because I am scanning for my A+ entry setup. I concur with you that sometimes the best trade is the one not taken. I wish newbies knew this, and it would save many accounts from being blown as they navigate their path to the earning phase.
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Some thoughts. Still in a ranging situation in my opinion. Trading is not easy and sometimes it’s better just to sit and watch. I have been trading some other pairs that are moving a little more than the EUR/USD. I hope this helps someone although there is not much participation on the forums here.
Good Luck,
J
Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the EUR/USD based on the charts provided and the upcoming economic events:
15-Minute Chart
• Trend: The 15-minute chart shows a consolidation phase near the lower range, with potential for either a breakout or continuation of the downtrend.
• Price Action: The price has been oscillating near a support level, indicating indecision in the market. A clear move below the recent lows could signal further bearish momentum.
• Indicators:
• ATR: Indicates low volatility, suggesting limited range movement.
• RSI: Close to oversold but not providing a strong reversal signal.
• MACD: Shows weak bearish momentum, suggesting caution for short positions.
1-Hour Chart
• Fibonacci Retracement: The price is testing key Fibonacci levels (50% and 61.8%) after a recent pullback. These levels often act as resistance and can signal potential reversal points.
• Trend: The overall trend remains bearish, with the price below major moving averages.
• Indicators:
• ATR: Reflects stable volatility.
• RSI: Neutral, not indicating immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
• MACD: Indicates potential bullish divergence, which could signal a short-term reversal.
4-Hour Chart
• Trend and Patterns: The 4-hour chart shows a broader downtrend, with a potential double bottom formation. This pattern, if confirmed by a break above the neckline, could suggest a bullish reversal.
• Key Levels: Watch for a break above the resistance around 1.0920 for a potential long position. A failure to break could result in a continuation of the downtrend.
• Indicators:
• ATR: Indicates consolidation, suggesting a potential breakout scenario.
• RSI: Neutral, providing no strong directional bias.
• MACD: Near a bullish crossover, which could confirm a reversal if it occurs.
Upcoming Economic Events
For July 26, 2024, important economic data releases include:
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index: This indicator could impact the EUR if it deviates significantly from expectations.
• U.S. Personal Income and Spending Data: Scheduled for release, these figures are crucial as they reflect consumer spending trends, which are a major component of GDP. A surprise here could significantly affect the USD.
Considering these factors, traders should be prepared for potential volatility, especially if data deviates from expectations.
Trading Strategies:
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Breakout Strategy: Monitor for breakouts from current consolidation levels, especially in the 15-minute and 4-hour charts.
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Reversal Confirmation: Look for confirmation of the double bottom on the 4-hour chart for potential long positions.
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News-Driven Volatility: Be aware of economic data releases that could impact market sentiment and cause sharp movements.
Keep an eye on the economic calendar and use appropriate risk management strategies, such as setting stop losses and managing position sizes.
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Yesterday, EU did not give me any entry. That is because sentiment changed towards the day’s end to bullish, at least in my opinion. It is very wise to trade other pairs when the one you trade has no clear price action or is not moving as expected.
I noticed your MACD indicator reading for the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes suggests bullish sentiment.
I will not, however, be trading this pair today. I will look for opportunities in other pairs. The economic reports for the USD today will either likely distort price action or gravitate it to the intended direction. It is a gamble I’m not willing to take.
Your market analysis definitely helps someone, me included. I know the value it possesses owing to the great effort you put in putting them together and writing them here for public consumption. Good luck as well in your trading. May the pips be with us.
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I want to make a correction as regards my analysis above seeing I have a duty to myself and everyone to be transparent at all times.
The above bullish sentiment is not likely what should play out on the EURUSD. I gave it a closer inspection and the indications actually favour a further bearish move. Even if it does go up, I won’t be part of that train. My sentiments for the fiber still remain bearish.
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As I have stated a few times, this ranging market is sometimes just impossible to trade. It’s better to sit on your hands than force trades simply to trade. I think sitting out the early NY session is a good idea. I never trade news unless it is very low impact.
Just a note, we did bounce back right off the 61.8 Fibonacci level and if you trade that bounce, it worked back to the o level and now right back to that original 61.8. It was a small move but the EUR/USD will follow those Fib levels most of the time.
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