I have created this thread for two reasons; to pen down my expectations of possible market direction for the Fiber, and to seek interaction with other traders on their perspectives of the pair.
Currently, I have a bearish sentiment on the EURUSD this week of July 22, 2024. At least, this is my current position on the pair although I am sure sentiments change without warning. Until then, the EU going South is the more favoured projection.
As a matter of transparency, this is an update. While I’m still bearish, I exited the trade earlier thinking that sentiment had changed. I should trust my system and the process more. Anyways, the bears party for the week is just starting. On the sidelines till I see an entry invitation to join the bearish trend.
I am bearish as well. Because of poor risk sentiment, high VIX (strong dollar). Waiting for some bearish signal. What are your reasons to be bearish?
The D1 chart has a bearish reversal at the high of the month, we have seen a bearish run last week on xxxusd pairs in addition to the gap up and rejection today on the fiber all tell me, along with higher volume on downbars that the sentiment on the pair is bearish. If the bearish run was mere retracement why was there a gap up this morning? It was to sucker traders into poor positions to make them buy so they can dump it using their stoplosses as liquidity.
It is happening now!
As it should be. I haven’t gotten my entry signal yet so I’m still on the sidelines. Exiting my advantageous position two days ago has proved a costly error. 
I just checked and I saw I missed an entry on the 30 minutes chart. However, I won’t chase the markets. I need my entry setup on a higher timeframe, or another entry on the 30 minutes chart, and I’m good to go. Like I said earlier, this is just the start of the bearish run for the fiber.
Hello, and just a comment on the Eur/Usd. Obviously the big move if you want to call it that, was during the European session. I had my charts set up nicely to catch the move and even had a great plan. The problem for me is trading during that session because my body wants to sleep. I always prepare a chart and analysis before the new trading, usually around 8pm NY time. I would be happy to share it in the future if you like.
Here is my analysis of last night. ( Let me know if you prefer I not put this information up)
15-Minute Chart:
• Trend: The EUR/USD pair appears to be in a consolidation phase after a downtrend. The recent price action shows a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicating a potential shift in trend.
• Support and Resistance:
• Support: Around 1.1075.
• Resistance: Near 1.1098.
• Indicators:
• ATR: The ATR indicates decreasing volatility, which is common during consolidation phases.
• RSI: The RSI is around the neutral 50 level, suggesting no strong momentum in either direction currently.
1-Hour Chart:
• Trend: Similar to the 15-minute chart, the 1-hour chart shows consolidation after a downtrend. The price is forming a potential symmetrical triangle or wedge pattern, indicating possible breakout scenarios.
• Support and Resistance:
• Support: Around 1.1075.
• Resistance: Near 1.1098.
• Indicators:
• ATR: The ATR indicates decreasing volatility, consistent with the consolidation phase.
• RSI: The RSI is around the neutral 50 level, indicating a lack of strong momentum.
Trade Considerations:
• Breakout Potential: Both charts suggest that the EUR/USD pair is at a critical point where a breakout could occur. The symmetrical triangle or wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart typically resolves with a strong move in either direction.
• Entry and Exit:
• Consider entering a position on a confirmed breakout above 1.1098 or below 1.1075.
• Use the ATR to set appropriate stop-loss levels. For instance, if the ATR is 5 pips, you might set your stop loss 1.5 to 2 times the ATR away from your entry point.
Conclusion:
Given the current setup, it might be wise to wait for a clear breakout from the consolidation pattern before entering a trade. Keep an eye on the support and resistance levels mentioned and be prepared for potential volatility when the breakout occurs. Ensure that your trade management strategy includes setting stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the ATR to manage risk effectively.
Yours is a detailed approach to trading with the use of indicators to confirm the trend. I guess you didn’t take it? Your contributions are always welcome even when your have differing views or methods. That is one of the reasons I set up this thread, not just to hear myself talk, but to also have constructive interactions with others.
Well, it is fair to say I have missed the train on today’s move since I missed my entry opportunity earlier. Your entry suggestion of 1.1075 indicates a bullish outlook, or did you mean 1.0750 which is way too low for me to look for an entry? On the other hand, l I have no bullish bias at the moment. Bears still having a field day. Time may tell a different story.
That notwithstanding, your trade procedure gave me a fresh perspective of reading the markets.
I missed it as well and it was setup for an easy breakout. I am neither bear or bull at this point. I don’t use indicators to enter a trade but just to confirm what I am seeing with my eye. My problem is I need to trade in the European or London Session and it’s very difficult to do that for me.
Anyway, thanks for allowing me to participate in your thread.
J
In trading, sitting on one’s hands is still holding a position. There is always an opportunity at the corner
You’re welcome, brother. I am grateful for your participation, and hope to see more from you in the near future.
How do you post an image here?
J
Interesting thread and points, Torch! 
I trade EURUSD myself so I hope you don’t mind me dropping by your thread every now and then. I use an MA crossover system and I’ve also been bearish since last week. 
A bearish crossover happened on my 1H chart and I waited for it to happen on my 4H chart before putting in a trade. But since I logged out, I missed it. 
Still planning to get in on a short today, though.
Welcome @ria_rose, it is an honour to have you drop by. I was actually hoping to have you grace this thread with your perspectives on the fiber, especially because you are the foremost EURUSD enthusiast I know. I’m glad we have the same sentiment, but it is sad the ship sailed before we could board it…haha. You are most welcome to air your views on the pair here. It is not only my delight to scoop ideas from interaction with others, I also very much look forward to it. I shall be looking for entries tomorrow while keeping an eye on the bearish steam.
Such a warm welcome! I love it! 
Haha. I’m watching the pair now and I’m planning to get in on a quick short trade. I would love to know your thoughts on this. I’m worried it’s already approaching oversold levels, but I would hate to completely miss out on all the action. I guess you can tell that FOMO is still something I struggle with. 
Thanks, that’s simple enough.
Haha. I’m super glad at your reception of my welcome address. Oh, by the way, the name Torch has a nice ring to it.
Okay, you are looking for a quick scalp? That may work, or it may prove counter-productive by making a retracement (profit-taking). The steam for today has gradually worn off. I guess the daily ADR has been met. That doesn’t mean you can’t make a profitable trade today. Sure you can, but I would go for the best deal when the market is just warming up for the day and momentum is the wind in its sails. That is why I did not take the trade though I expected this fall. Again, your system is different so yours might see an opening where mine is blind.
As regards the fear of missing out, I think you should accept that it is okay to miss trades…I mean very juicy textbook setups, and it is okay to wait for another opportunity however the length of time it takes to arrive. This is how I defeated my Fear Of Missing Out. You will master the art of discipline by just having this thought. Hope it helps you. 
It very well is
here is the answer to your question.