My First Forex Experience (NNFX)

[chrisfraser05]

Start Date 1st March 2021

First I’d like to say a big thanks to the following for the information I’ve gathered the last 6 months, then I will get into the thread proper…

1. Babypips - Fantastic Education section and forum
2. VP (no nonsense forex) - Youtube channel & Blog with alot of good information and bones of a strategy
3. Not another trading podcast - Sam & Josh are putting together a really good resource and are approachable & helpful.
4. Dillon Grech - Helpful Youtube Vids, Discord Server and Tradingview indicators.
5. Mihkel00 - Tradingview user & programmer. Handy all in one nnfx compatible indicator.
6. Babypips members - @BenP @The_Baller @Trendswithbenefits & others for lots of good content and info

So about me…

I’ve been an electrical/electronics tech, Automation Engineer, Commissioning Engineer & a few other roles for the last 18 years. Starting in the RAF, moving into the Oil Industry and working all over the world.

It’s been fun, but all through it money has been like water through my fingers… lots of water embarrassingly.

Now I’m simply tired of being away and have spent the last short time accumulating some value in both Stocks and Cryptos.

It’s been a good year or two, and at the same time I’ve cut my outgoings massively enabling me to accumulate more.

What i realised though, I didn’t know what I was saving for… After some time I settled on what my goals were, then I wondered how to get there. After some time I formulated a plan.

So Goals.

1. Financial Freedom - I’m in charge. Nobody tells me where to be, what to do, what to wear etc
2. Time Freedom - No point having financial freedom, but working 150 hours a week for it!

How do i get there???

Plan

1. Expenses - Cut bills and costs, stop wasting money. Create Free cash to invest.
2. Investing - Invest in markets that are trending. Stocks & Crypto booming, take profits while going is good.
3. Trading - Learn a skill that I’ll be able to reinvest Stock/Crypto Profits in to generate long term steady gains.
4. Reinvest long term - Property/Dividend paying assets to reduce reliance on trading and earn when sleeping.

So my investing has gone quite well, having read a few books and learned to confidently know what I was looking for I was able to identify companies with good fundamentals. I’ve taken some profits over time and my portfolio is growing. This I know is also very much helped for the last 10 months by a market that has pretty much only been going one direction (this may be about to change, at some point it will).
Equity markets by their nature will always boom and bust, so this for me is a way to make hay when the sun is shining, and needs to be treated as a non permanent source of funds.

My crypto portfolio is growing nicely. However, we all know Cryptos are also boom and bust, following historic trends I’d expect the bull market to end and a large correction in Sept/Oct to expect to be taking profits in September or there abouts.

So that leaves me looking at other options, where does the money go when the Equities market slows? Where does the money go from Crypto? Currency. So i began my research.

Now I’ve always been one for a good strategy game growing up, playing probabilities and working out a strategy.
This lead me to finding Babypips, reading all the terms, looking if there was any way not so much to “beat the market” but to find an edge of some kind.

Algos, patterns… mind blown.

Demos… Brokers… Trading212, IG, Oanda… so many options.

And after quite a time I’ve ended up settling myself up an Algorithm on TradingView based on the NNFX principles. My Oanda Account setup and Funded.

I still have work to do on this, but I got a 14% gain in December, 15% in Jan and 17.5% in Feb in Demo.
I also have a Demo running based on @The_Baller journal, so far with a decent bit of unrealised profit.
I like the Risk Management part of NNFX so believe this will be more likely my main bread winner, but if i can run anything alongside it for extra cash and for interest I will over time.

So here we stand on the last day of Feb 2021 ready to make my first LIVE trades on my Spread Betting account tomorrow night!

I’ll go into more details about my Rules, my Strategy and a little about the Algo as time goes on.

I just wanted to create this first post, as much as anything to force myself to journal this journey.

I know it’s not a good idea to set myself tight goals, but my long term goal is to try to get to a point, with Risk Management, to a 2.5% monthly ROI minimum, with anything above that amount split between compounding the account and other investments.

Will this happen? Is it unrealistic? Will I far exceed this goal?
Time will tell!

Thanks for reading, and please feel free to give your 2c, guide me, tell me I’m being a ****.
Anything constructive, or simply a bit of banter welcome!

Cheers, Chris

[steve369]

Welcome. A very informative post, thank you. Now you’re trading live you’ll need to control your emotions of Fear and Pain following an outcome - which applies to both winners and losers. There are remedial techniques, and I advise you to look up Tom Hougaard who posts hour long seminars for retail traders on You Tube. Beware, while he’s a fantastic mentor and trader, his fresh air methods are not the norm.

As for a 2.5% monthly return, that is fantasy, because Forex doesn’t work like that. One day, one week, one month outcomes cannot be guaranteed, EVER. However good your strategy, you will experience losing streaks and, hopefully, winning ones. Any returns greater than 12% APR is better than institutional index linked funds, and should be on your Goals list…

Best of luck.

[chrisfraser05]

Steve,

Thanks so much for your response and I value the input.

I suppose really I posted that last line because I wanted a kick in the arse, and a dose of reality.

What I need to do is take what my strategy gives me, but always to REVIEW what works, what doesn’t work and be prepared to make changes where required to improve.

I’ll look up Tom Hougaard once I get off shift (night shift offshore just now) and add him to my playlists.

Cheers for the warm welcome!

[chrisfraser05]

So I thought I’d maybe add a little post here about my strategy, partly for those who don’t know what NNFX (no nonsense forex) is, but also to outline what I’ve added to make it work best for me.

I’ve alluded above, I currently work offshore. I work 3 weeks away, and am home for 3 weeks at a time. |
While at home I have my little boys live with me, so my time is often fragmented running around after everyone else.

I need a strategy that allows me to give continuity, and i can use my spare time when i have it to review and improve the strategy.

So I will be trading at 9PM Monday to Friday nights.
Trading the Daily Candles with my trend indicators, volume indicator and placing 2 positions pre trade.

Risk will be 1% per position, 1.5x ATR TSL, 1x ATR TP on 1 position, and the other will run until exit indicator forms.

I will be trading most pairs, including some exotics. I will over time possibly remove pairs from my trading depending on what my data tells me over time.

I will be logging all my trades in a paper journal, this will be with me at home, and on the rig. I may be trading in my cabin, in my work office, in a hotel or at home. So taking the journal in my bag allows me to not only record my progress on the move, but also to review the history while on coffee breaks or stuck in a hotel etc.

Each month, the first Sunday, I intend to record my realized account balance and will use this to track overall progress.

I will then collate the data of all trades closed in the last month and review and see if there is anything I can gather from them to improve. Was there a news event I missed? Would changing my TP, TSL or any other factor improve my results?

I have chosen Oanda as my broker as it integrates with TradingView.
I already have developed a couple of my own indicators for Crypto’s on TV so decided at this point to stick with that platform.

I will first review my trade activity. Any TSL or TP’s hit since yesterday? Record this in the Journal.

Next I will check for any trades where my exit indicator says to close them out. Record any in the Journal.

I have a tick sheet next to fill in. As I am trading all pairs, I do not want too much exposure to any one currency. So 2 trades, 4x 1% positions is the maximum.
I will use the journal to check and tick what % is open on each currency. Any where i have 4% open I highlight the line and know I cannot open more trades on it.

Next I go through my watch list, the process is quick. Glance at the main graph, are we above or below the baseline, is my innitial entry indicator showing to enter in the direction of my baseline, scan down to my second entry indicator and see if it matches. Lastly is my volume indicator red? Do we have the volume to take the trade?

If all says go and the pair isn’t one of the currencies we are at max exposure on, we take the ATR value, and use this to set out TSL and TP.

Actually making the trades daily is a 20/30 minute process.

The time and effort is going to be reviewing the data, optimizing and improving the process.

Also on the side I will be testing other unrelated theories, as when I am at home I will be able to potentially day trade or have more time to experiment and test. All that will be done in demo for the time being.

Now I don’t for one minute think that NNFX, the indicators I’ve chosen, my settings or my process are going to be a magic bullet. I also don’t believe that the market will always behave the same way.

I’ve seen a few people slate NNFX, or “VP”, and I will not for a minute say I would blindly follow the guys every word. But I understand the concept he was trying to get across.
Manage your risk.
TEST TEST TEST, find what works more often that it doesn’t.
KEEP TESTING, things change, markets change, volatility changes.
Above all, until you have the experience to say otherwise, stay out of your trade!

Everything I have implemented in my “algorithm” has been back tested by myself, and looked promising. Then was demo tested and again proved successful. How much of that was statistical anomalies? How much was due to the market being in the favor of my setup in each portion of data back tested?

What I hope to do is gather data, and find what is more PROBABLE to behave in my favor, to maybe get better than 50/50 chance of an outcome going my way.

This will no doubt take many years, but nobody ever got anywhere without trying.

Thanks, Chris

[chrisfraser05]

So day 1 of the LIVE account.

Sit down to check if my indicators are throwing any trades.

We’ve got 6 trades that are ready to go;

AUD/CHF Long, 1+1%
CAD/JPY Long, 1+1%
EUR/CAD Short, 1+1%
EUR/PLN Long, 0.5+0.5% (volume low)
GBP/PLN Long, 1+1%
USD/DKK Long, 0.5+0.5%

Unfortunately I noticed when I made my second position on the USD/DKK that I’d ****ed up my position size and TSL on the first position by a factor of 10. So my TSL is too tight, but with the full 0.5% against it.
So basically I stand to gain 10x what i planned… but also my TSL is very tight, and I’m quite liable to lose my 0.5% soon.

I considered taking the hit of the spread and closing the trade, but at 0.1% of the account balance I decided the mistake was made and left it. It’s moving in my favour at the moment, so hopefully I’ll not burn myself with it… BUT LEASON 1 on day 1… check the TSL position reference the ATR 3 times before hitting confirm!

I also noted I’ve forgotten to list the GBP on my check sheet for exposure… and I never though to check for upcoming news events.

On review Kiwi GDP is due on Thursday, I’ll have to check last time and see how much effect this had, I don’t know if this is a high level event.

US Non farm payroles and unemployment may be a cause for caution later in the week, but we have time and can tighten the stoploss on the day.

I need to add a warning to myself to check the high level news events, at the top of my exposure checklist.

All learnings…

I won’t bore you all with daily updates of each trade, but wanted to list my first days trades if nothing else.

Chris

I’ve noted the Kiwi GDP

[chrisfraser05]

So just a little update, I’ve landed lucky with my accidental trade.

I’ve just had the TSL triggered, however the movement forward was enough for the trade to be worth 0.66% of the account.

As the trade was supposed to be 0.5% risk per trade, if my TP had been hit on the second position I would make 0.33%. As a result I’ve removed the TP for the other position, and will allow it to run as normal.

As I said earlier… I need to CHECK, CHECK and CHECK again before clicking confirm in future.

Tonight was luck!!!

[chrisfraser05]

So little update, nothing major to report at this point.

Remaining half of USD/DKK not far from TSL at this point, no exit indicator so left to run.

Most other trades either slight positive, or dithering around near/below entry.

Taken 2 new trades;

GBP/JPY, long 2% risk
NZD/CHF, Long 2% risk.

Current Exposure now at,

AUD 2%
CAD 4% Maxed
CHF 4% Maxed
DKK 0.5%
EUR 3%
GBP 4%MAXED
JPY 4% MAXED
NZD 2%
PLN 3%
USD 0.5%

Noted US Non farm payrole friday, so last day for new trades is Tomorrow (USD) then anything else can wait till Monday.

[BenP]

Good luck with it @chrisfraser05 - seems like you’re a methodical feller so you stand every chance of sticking rigidly to the plan and seeing some success, this really is the first lesson and most difficult aspect of trading as a newbie from what I’ve picked up.
Definitely keep your ‘trials’ in demo.
Also, this might give you something. Google him, he knows his onions. I’ve watched this several times. It’s cool.
David Paul - trade psychology

Looking forward to seeing how you get on (and the indicators you’ve settled on!).

[chrisfraser05]

Ben,

Cheers for that.

I do prefer to be organised and plan where I can, always been when I’m happiest in my career, and my unhappiest has been when I’m surrounded in disorgansed chaos.

I’ve subscribed to David Paul on Youtube and will give him a good watch later.

Thanks bud.

[forexforexforex]

Thanks for all the detailed explanations. Much appreciated Following along.

[chrisfraser05]

Thanks Mate.

I hope to be able to share even 1/5th as much as I learn from here.

Even if it’s so people can learn from the mistakes I make and can skip a step or two in their journey.

[chrisfraser05]

See Attached Screenshot of the AUD/SGD.

One of my main indicators is Hybrid Indicator that has a few different functions, including SSL which I actually don’t use.

I use the ATR bands, the Baseline which is a customisable MA, my exit indicator which is another MA, there are also little extras such as the diamond above candles over a certain ATR size etc.

The Damiani Volume Indicator I use, I have turned off most of the function. I only use the background colour for a low volume market. Backtesting showed me there was much more chance of a turn around before the first TP in the Red.

I use QQE Mod, with some updated settings to show me when a trend was strong enough to be likely to continue for long enough to make a positive return.

The ATR is to get me a number to use when setting my TSL and TP for Risk, the ATR bands of the Hybrid give me a confirmation of the correct value before confirming the trade.

The $evz indicator is a litmus test of the general currency markets, with a level under 6 much less likely to produce decent sustained trends, and the level above 8 likely to produce some bigger trends.
Risk can be further reduced (1% or 0.5%) under 5, and up to 3% rather than 2% over a value of 8.

[chrisfraser05]

The above wasn’t deliberately picked for the trades, but just as it looked nice and clean.

Looking at it again, it shows me the 3 trades I would have been in on my Demo account last month.

1. A long entry at 2% Risk, took a nice profit and out on Exit indicator.
2. A Short Entry at 1% Risk. Took a loss at the exit indicator, wasn’t quite at the TSL.
3. A long Entry at 1%. Got a fair run with a TSL trigger at the marked value.

Over time I’m going to backtest further and review my data to confirm whether or not I should simply reduce my risk when volume is low, or just simply not trade.
Backtesting on single pairs was hit and miss which was better, so would like to see it in live over time.

Certainly I might find that having 1% risk Low Volume trades may mean I am over exposed and miss taking trades on other pairs of which have better volume, and therefore more likely to generate a decent length trend.

[chrisfraser05]

Day 3 update… 48hrs since opening trades.

TSL hit on USD/DKK today as expected, loss of 1.15%

All other trades currently moving in my favour slowly. Running balance is approx 2% up. No counting chickens though, only thing that really matters is that I follow the system, take the deals and i can start counting Realised PNL at the end of each month.

New trades opened on GBP/JYP Long, NZD/CHF Long and USD/SNG long.

Currently 9 running trades.

[Beibian]

I love David pauls videos. He is very clever and funny.

[steve369]

@chrisfraser05

Current Exposure now at 27%

That concerns me and it should concern you. It’s a very high risk exposure. I suggest you could, and should, determine and set a maximum exposure per day. Consecutive losing trades are not uncommon, and could cause havoc to a LIVE account very quickly - especially if you’re not hardened to ignore them as history. Otherwise, you’ll be overtrading, revenge trading, and loss of all your account.

See also, Tom Hougaard on YouTube - you’ll enjoy and suit his style of mentoring. He’s excellent on emotional control.

[chrisfraser05]

Steve,

Cheers for the concern.

The 27% being split among all the currencies and different directions. Maximum per currency is 4%.

As you suggest there can be times when multiple currencies turn at the same time, profit taking etc, from my back testing it looked like it was equally likely to cause me to go into further profit, but also looking at the balance, when it did happen it would be generally fairly balanced between while one turned pair turned towards my TSL another would go towards the TP etc.

I’ll be monitoring the maximum total drawdown over the next 12 months or so to get a feel for how it reacts.

Regards over trading/revenge trading. If there’s nothing triggers the indicators, I can’t trade it.

I’m not doing ANY discretionary trading outside my separate demo accounts.

I’m not going to be adding much more money to this account until I have 12 months of live data, using my shares are crypto accounts to build capital mean time.
This should mean I get a good idea of the drawdown, unexpected results etc before upping the value and taking the next steps physiologically.

[chrisfraser05]

So today 4 of my trades hit a TP on one position, so locked in a little profit. Other half still gaining at the moment.

All other open trades reviewed and all still moving in my direction, no indicators flagged.

6 new trades opened, various sizes due to either overall exposure (4% max per currency) or for low volume.

AUD/CAD Short 1%
AUD/HKD Short 2%
CHF/JPY Short 1%
EUR/HKD Short 1%
NZD/HKD Short 1%
USD/CHN Long 1%

Realised PNL to date 2.5%, Total 6% (NAV 1062 GBP).

[chrisfraser05]

Also started a new Spread Betting Demo on IG tonight using something Tom Hougard said in one of his streams.

Just a little scalping experiment. 20mins, 7 trades and took the account from 1000 to 1035 GBP.
Will be interesting to see how it works on a longer term basis.

[steve369]

Great energy. Seems you’re well on top of the trading limits. Best of luck going forward. At this rate you’ll become proficient and successful.

cheers