after closing my NZD/JPY short this morning,
here is where I am with my account:
[B]GbpNzd long[/B]: [B]-6138[/B][B] pips (trade 1) -285[/B] pips (trade 2) = [B]-6423[/B] pips;
[B]EurGbp short[/B]: [B]-1526[/B] pips (trade 1) - EurGbp short (trade 2) [B]-42[/B] pips = [B]-1568[/B] pips;
[B]NzdUsd short[/B]: [B]-152[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]-908[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-800[/B] pips.
The effect of the BoE and NFPs at the end of this week has been to
punish the Pound and also the Kiwi, while US and UK equities have been lifted considerably:
what will continue into next week is the inability for S&P and FTSE100 to push to new highs
and the threat that this poses on the ‘house of cards’, looking for what may spark a reversal;
more imminently, the RBNZ will constitute a direct threat to the NZD, which has been failing
to push back above 0.72 and may likely return below 0.70 in the event of a further rate cut
(much as it is expected)…
The Pound/Kiwi long will play on the strength of the above Kiwi theme to regain traction toward
1.90, and the other Pound-long trade that I have still holds true in that the Euro has not managed
to capitalise on Pound weakness and still struggled to break 0.85 when it had ample opportunity
to do so (the Euro is just too weak to put momentum behind moves to the upside, it seems).
Regarding US Oil and Silver, I am glad that I stayed out, with my last Oil trade being closed at
$46 just before price would gradually return to even below $40 this week, and with Silver
returning once again below $20 today after a seemingly promising push to above $20.50.
I have further funded this account in order to continue holding the above trades, with the main
themes remaining fundamentally true, as follows:
risk aversion building up (for Yen pairs and equities);
Kiwi dollar losing premium and under threat by a hawkish Fed going forward;
cheaper Pound attractive for price flows to the upside, especially against Eur and Nzd.