One thing that can help improve your technical skills, if you can’t sit behind a screen during peak trading hours (due to work or other responsibilities). Purchase a cheap vid capture software such as screencast-o-matic. For a handful of change you can leave your charts up, record them, then playback the day’s price action. Even can upload them to youtube if you want to store them all somewhere. Watch them at 2, 3, 4x speed, etc etc.
I actually have a Pro account with Screencastomatic,
with which I have done most of my FrerFx videos on
YouTube…I love it!
PS: got a call (and then an e.mail) from FXCM this evening as it seems that their margin requirements will
go up a second time this week, starting later this week, in time for the Uk’s EU referendum volatility.
Some of the assets’ maintenance margins have already gone up fourfold, as is the case for the FTSE100,
so I will have to do a bit of preparation to see how I can meet the new requirements.
Was there a reason for placing your first trade on Christmas Eve?
It was as close as the first day of the year and I felt ready then… No particular reason other than that…
The hedges seem to be working well:
S&P500 short is +500 points and NZD/JPY short about +330 points…
This is balancing out my EUR/GBP short (-1,140 pips) and my GBP/NZD long (-5,000 pips).
GbpNzd long: [B]-5738[/B]pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-1370[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short:[B]+1.5 [/B]pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+287[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]+912[/B] pips.
GbpNzd long: [B]-5572[/B] pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-1386[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-18[/B] pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+321[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]+993[/B] pips.
The final outline is of three core trades and
Ouch. Do you think GBP/NZD will come back or are you just trying to hedge it out?
I am hedging it out with a viww that the Pound will find a bid again against the Kiwi .
Update of 6th July 2016, 10am:
GbpNzd long: [B]-6252[/B] pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-1594[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-535[/B] pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+300[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]+92[/B] pips.
Silver (XagUsd) long: [B]+0.7[/B]
NzdUsd short: [B]+50[/B]
Would you consider closing this massive lossing trades you have and call it as a lost? I don’t think GBp will turn around after this events. You will probably will wait until your 70 years old! And still don’t know if they will ever turn around… Babysitting this lossing trades ( specially the larger once) is just a waste of time in my view…There are other opportunities to trade that will be worth your time… How do you sleep at night knowing you have this lossing trades?
yes that would have been one option but I am trying to adopt a buy-and-hold approach strategy over the long term, so this pair (GbpNzd) has a target of 3.0 or over in my plan. I sleep well at night, were it not for my two-month old baby, hence my typing this so early in the morning! The total cost of that GbpNzd trade is about 370 Pounds at present, and it is not much to me: all positions are the smallest possible.
This pair took just 19 weeks last year (from May to August) to move +4700 pips… So a fast moving pair like this means I will not have to wait double my age for this to happen… There is the Kiwi side, remember, to move this pair also…
A current -6k pip deficit would mean your entry is around ~2.4000? a 3.000 projection would be another 6k pips away. If you put yourself in a position to get 2:1 minimum you would be looking for a 12k pip move from entry which would be 3.6000 past the 2002 highs? In the meantime you’re eating negative swap from what is currently a top 5 carry trade for years. Oy my math must be wrong somewhere…
Hi there, no , your maths are good,but I am not going for a 2:1 ratio, more like 0.8:1, with pip gain being around 5000 to 5500.
Negative swap is partly offset by my EurGbp short, and the costs saved from day trading commissions are factored in, as well as the overall pip gain in the end. Exit will be discretionary, around the 2.95-3.0 zone…
Ahhh, I see that clears things up. Thanks for the explanation!
No worries, Phaz…
I got myself into this long-term plan and I want to see (psychologically and financially) how/when
it will come to a fruitful end; therefore, I am bound not by pride or public duty to continue on this
difficult road, especially with the long-Pound exposure, but by following a plan that I had set out
in a thematic way across a number of asset classes - metals, commodities, equities, and currencies.
I am now at stage 3 of 4, where stage 1 was initiating the trades in currencies and
equities; stage 2 was managing risk long-term with additional trading to the same theme; stage 3 was/is managing
the Brexit phase in risk and margin requirements, adding further trades for metals and energy, plus introducing
short-term counter-theme trades; stage 4 will be the realignment of markets to broader themes
of risk aversion and flight to safety, streamlining my positions into the forecast direction (this will then be planning
the actual exit from the trades).
Update of Friday 8th July 2016, 7pm GMT:
GbpNzd long: [B]-6714[/B] pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-1578[/B] pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+123[/B] pips;
NzdUsd short:[B]-137[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]-369[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-606[/B] pips;
Silver (XagUsd) long: [B]-18[/B] pips;
US (WTI crude) Oil long:[B] -8[/B] pips.
GbpNzd short: OPENED today and CLOSED at [B]+82[/B] pips;
EurGbp long: OPENED today and CLOSED at [B]-58[/B] pips.
PipMe, I’m not much of an expert on Nzd or any of the others, not really an expert on anything, but Eur/Gbp just happens to be something I have to take account of on a regular basis, have had to do so since the creation of the Euro.
Just a wee suggestion on the short term trade, today’s trade was going to be difficult because of Usd, most guys expected a good Nfp, the consequent Usd buying means selling Euros, almost always spills over to Eur/Gbp
Also yesterday’s price reflected the T. May factor, (see daily chart) so the Gbp momentum selling was reined in (maybe for a week or so)
All hindsight I know, the long term outlook on the cross? - much depends, but the monthly suggests the probable - unless they undo Brexit :).