I wouldn’t use the word failure.
I’d say, adaptation.
I wouldn’t use the word failure.
Update: entered a Valutrades/MyFxBook trading contest in May , which ends on 14th June, and today made it to 388th out of 3717 contestants…
My gross gains are over 40% and net gains about 15%,
on a $ 10,000 demo account.
Pretty useful, in some ways, and
taught me a few lessons.
GbpNzd long: -4350 pips;
EurGbp short: -992 pips;
FTSE100 short: +57 pips;
NzdJpy short: +112 pips;
S&P500 short: +250 pips.
GbpNzd long: -4334 pips;
EurGbp short: -973 pips;
FTSE100 short: +60 pips;
NzdJpy short: +191 pips;
S&P500 short: +342 pips.
What’s your plan for next week, in terms of your current exposure to GBP-related event risk, F?
From one “web friend” to another, I’d be super cautious on the GBPNZD trade man…It looks like 2.00 is going to get cleared out…
My plan is this:
SCENARIO A: BREXIT wins.
‘Fear’ will win the day and the hedge is with a positive expectancy for high gains in
the FTSE100 and S&P500 short positions… These will mitigate any further GBP/NZD
declines with equal if not superior reach.
The NZD/JPY is also a ‘risk-off’ sentiment trade, so it will compound positive expectancy
in parallel with the equity shorts…
The only one I am not certain about is the EUR/GBP, but I can always choose to close that
one, of the five, if my equity looks troubled.
SCENARIO B: BREXIT LOSES.
Then GBP/NZD will sky-rocket and the EUR/GBP may dip lower (although it will be a
counter-balanced moved as the Euro will also rally in relief);
what will happen to US equities and UK equities is an unknown and I will have to manage those
The NZD/JPY is a JPN225-related bear-trend in the making, following the USD/JPY, which may
not find relief from a No-Brexit outcome, so I do not expect this to trouble my exposure.
Good to see you’ve got some winners in there, do you have any stops in case those 3 reverse?
No, this is a hedge-only strategy… No stops…
It will just have to play out.
I bet you could crack walnuts with those Buddha buttocks!
PS it could have been a better strategy for Brexit but the hedges are what has been introduced to adapt to the situation, so from now on I only plan to manage things directly only if all five trades, say, go sour.
The Titanic may go down but I will keep playing the music as written on my score… that is the plan…I will only stop following that score when it has become apparent that I must jump to save myself
GbpNzd long: -4257 pips;
EurGbp short: -935 pips;
FTSE100 short: -23 pips;
NzdJpy short: +102 pips;
S&P500 short: +152 pips.
Trades update (Fri. 17/06/16), 7.33pm GMT:
GbpNzd long: [B]-4135[/B] pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-896[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-61[/B] pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+84[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]+162[/B] pips.
Trades update (Mon. 20/06/16), 8.30pm GMT:
GbpNzd long: [B]-3807[/B] pips;
EurGbp short: [B]-747[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-179 [/B]pips;
NzdJpy short: [B]+63[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]+25[/B] pips.
F- Are you going to flat those GBP positions (and FTSE) before the vote?
Interesting to see a portfolio of positions pip. Is this especially for brexit or what you like doing in general ? (sorry, i haven’t taken the time to go through old posts on the thread).
Hi Michael, thank you… Three of these positions were opened nearly a year ago, and it is an attempt (however imperfect) at trading and managing a portfolio based on fundamentals…
Strategy update for Thursday:
added funds to account as a buffer, given the increased maintenance margin requirements
that came into being for Pound and FTSE100 trades through my broker (FXCM) yesterday;
purchased a tablet for a music installation next month but also with the intention of making
use of it as an extra screen for watching charts: I will have three charts on the large desktop
computer screen, one on the tablet, and one more on my mobile 'phone, just to see exactly
how moves were or were not correlated through the event risk.