Nice one Yes, I imagine you will soon be back to a winning streak…
after closing my NZD/JPY short this morning,
here is where I am with my account:
[B]GbpNzd long[/B]: [B]-6138[/B][B] pips (trade 1) -285[/B] pips (trade 2) = [B]-6423[/B] pips;
[B]EurGbp short[/B]: [B]-1526[/B] pips (trade 1) - EurGbp short (trade 2) [B]-42[/B] pips = [B]-1568[/B] pips;
[B]NzdUsd short[/B]: [B]-152[/B] pips;
S&P500 short: [B]-908[/B] pips;
FTSE100 short: [B]-800[/B] pips.
The effect of the BoE and NFPs at the end of this week has been to
punish the Pound and also the Kiwi, while US and UK equities have been lifted considerably:
what will continue into next week is the inability for S&P and FTSE100 to push to new highs
and the threat that this poses on the ‘house of cards’, looking for what may spark a reversal;
more imminently, the RBNZ will constitute a direct threat to the NZD, which has been failing
to push back above 0.72 and may likely return below 0.70 in the event of a further rate cut
(much as it is expected)…
The Pound/Kiwi long will play on the strength of the above Kiwi theme to regain traction toward
1.90, and the other Pound-long trade that I have still holds true in that the Euro has not managed
to capitalise on Pound weakness and still struggled to break 0.85 when it had ample opportunity
to do so (the Euro is just too weak to put momentum behind moves to the upside, it seems).
Regarding US Oil and Silver, I am glad that I stayed out, with my last Oil trade being closed at
$46 just before price would gradually return to even below $40 this week, and with Silver
returning once again below $20 today after a seemingly promising push to above $20.50.
I have further funded this account in order to continue holding the above trades, with the main
themes remaining fundamentally true, as follows:
risk aversion building up (for Yen pairs and equities);
Kiwi dollar losing premium and under threat by a hawkish Fed going forward;
cheaper Pound attractive for price flows to the upside, especially against Eur and Nzd.
Holding out at -11500 pips, with a stagnant FTSE and S&P record highs unmoved and a Kiwi teetering above and below 0.72, with a Eur/Gbp hanging on to 0.86 with no progress either way and GBP/NZD suffering for an unexplained Pound/Dollar drop today (down to 1.28 or so) that pulled it back below 1.80 and as low as 1.78 or so.
Capitalised the account again, holding out…
In the last 24-48 hours, my positions have shed a maximum total of over 1000 pips of drawdown, thanks to a strengthening Pound and a pullback in equities…
Let us see what happens next
Whatever happened in the markets, after about a month of not much movement in my Kiwi and EurGbp and equity shorts, today the Jackson Hole symposium was a catalyst: not much of what was said by Yellen caused a reaction, or at least it was a reaction that was then neutralised; however, in the hours that followed, a big sell-off in S&P500 and FTSE100 led the charge for a risk-off move, with Kiwi-Dollar following suit and breaking below 0.73…
Interestingly, UsdJpy actually rallied above 101, whereas a risk-off move would see it breaking below 100: this pair, at times, will follow the USD in a rally, although its fundamental is not Dollar-led but risk-led.
Today my total positioning shed something in the region of over 800 pips, and from earlier this month my total drawdown has today been reduced by about 1600 pips, currently being just under -10200 pips.
Good morning peeps…
As per this morning, my total drawdown is just loitering around the 10000-pip figure, thus shedding 1800 pips since its peak (11800 pips).
A return to the 9000s seems likely, mainly driven by a Pound resurgence (positively impacting my Pound longs versus Kiwi and Euro, and my FTSE100 short).
Once these themes regain traction with September liquidity returning (and the FOMC rate decision on the 21st), there may be a slightly rosier outlook ahead for my strategy… Kiwi/Usd and S&P500 shorts will need a risk-off sentiment gathering pace, something which we have all been wondering about since August 2015 - the timing of it is the big unknown.
Now heading towards the 9800s…
“What a difference a day makes” says the song: how very true…
2100 pips cast off from my drawdown in two weeks or so…
What a thread…
Still with Fxcm…
After the ‘flash crash’ (if that is what it was) of October 2016, where I lost all my money in my live account (as I discussed in my FreeFX video here: FreeFX video: Time to admit Defeat? ), I opened a £50000 demo account with FXCM, with some help from @Jason_Rogers, in Feb.2017.
Since then, I traded that account and nothing else, first only through UsdTry (as discussed in my thread here: USD/TRY: an incredible pair ) then also through other exotic pairs, namely EurTry, UsdMxn, UsdSek, and UsdZar. Following an account rise to above £58000,between Nov.2017 and Feb.2018 I made some changes due to the UsdTry entering a long congestion period: trying to make money on other exotics I overtraded and reduced the account to between £10000 and £11000.
Since then, I brought the account up to about £36000 but then pursued long-term carry through buying Turkish Lira and managed to accrue nearly £2000 in positive carry. However, in August the Turkish currency crisis reached fever pitch and the Lira plummeted to new record lows each day until, in spite of careful management, I was margin called and lost a big part of that account.
In September I started rebuilding a strategy and some confidence: after some bad trades in unfamiliar territory, which reduced my account even further (to about £330), I started again on day trading and concentrating on the no-commission, low-spread, cheap maintenance margin requirements afforded by the Nasdaq100.
I am now approaching £1700 and I know that the trailing stops approach is working well.
The journey continues…
That account got close to near-zero due to being chopped out of many positions as I attempted to day-trade the Nasdaq.
I opened a new account in October (see USDTRY thread) and doing okay with that.
Well, latest update… that Oct. 2018 demo account eventually died but I opened one in July 2019 and I did almost everything right, and as you can see on my UsdTry thread (USD/TRY: an incredible pair ) I am up by quite a bit… I am determined.now to protect capital to reach the end of the twelve.month period since opening this account with a positive P/L.
When that happens I will start looking at my.options…
@Fx.: I.am.including.you here as you asked about my trading…
Closed my long.Eur/Try and my.long.Eur/Usd trades.today, both in profit, bringing my account (opened.last July) up by 34%.
Up by +36.78%…
Three long EurTry trades today…
Is that all you’ve been trading on this account, EURTRY? TY!
Excellent results! I must make it over to your other thread.
Account now up by 38.85% …
Account now up by +47%…