My first live positions ever, today, 24th Dec. 2013, with FXCM

Thank you, Manxx!

I am still trading one of the two accounts that I discussed on this thread (having closed the other

account after it went bust), and I have recently started a thread showing how it is progressing:

You can immediately see, as you open that link, that the account graph rocked up through aggressive

trading and then back down (due to the inevitable losses)… 2015 looks like a gentler slope up, as I

slowly rebuilt my account from almost nothing, only adding funds to it this Christmas (first time that I

added funds to it since February 2014, so I felt it was justified, also given my good work).

Please feel free to add your MyFXBook link on that thread, if you have one and wish to make it

visible (except your account personal details).

Thanks for the comments: it certainly has been a journey!

Hello my friend PipMe!

Happy New Year. I am glad to see that you are still trading. Yes, it is definitely a journey! Just keep at it… New Year a New beginning :slight_smile:

Hello PipNRoll!!

I will e.mail you again, but while I am here let me wish you too a prosperous and fulfilling 2016 in your career (and in your life), as well as your trading. :slight_smile:

Oh, how things change!!

I have recently been wondering about the long-term approach… Truly, my 2015 trading (first half) was good, but since the summer of that year, when I switched to long-term positioning, I had to endure endless perioeds of drawdown…

Did I choose the wrong trades for my long-term approach and my vision?

The answer is: not really. I have a fundamental view and price fluctuations have not altered that: I believe equities and Yen currency pairs ripe for a rinse-out, and I believe the Pound to be a winning currency against some counterparts, in the medium future… Even large drawdowns have not altered this view, which is why I have not taken off my positions: they are being managed, as time will ultimately turn these themes up to their full volume, and then I will start planning my profit taking…

Self-belief is the difficult art of balancing price analysis and future forecasts, so if price + time = bias then the time element cannot be taken out of the equation.

Happy trading

Ah… so my drawdown in the last ten months went up to -5,400 pips,

then in the last two months it lightened up to -2,800 pips,

and this week has deepened again, reaching -5,100 pips.

Slow progress…

More meditation and waiting…

Buddha buttocks shaping up nicely…

I will reach the second state of enlightenment, eventually,

when (or if) my plan will come to its fruitful end.


Scrap that…

Thanks to the RBNZ, tonight I have peaked to -5,660 …


Watch that M1 20EMA…if we maintain and can book JUN above it- I’d start to cover if you’re trading NZDUSD.

It is a buggeration of a situation…

Unless the Fed surprises all with a hike next week,

nothing will stop NZD/USD in the medium term, except

the apocalypse haha

i feel some desperation. am i right?

just close the position and forget abput it. if u close it now in a week you will forget about it if you keep it up youll only be more stressed for much longer time. isnt buddha about not beeing stressed or something like that?

I have waited this long, Turbo, I honestly think this kind of thing take time… a 3.0 target is not much to ask, it just takes time… I am not stressed from a risk/account point of view, just frustrated by the fundamentals taking their sweet time to play out.


i completely understand you and assure you im experiencing the same problem a lot of times. it is frustrating very frustrating to wait for things to allign. everytime i have such an experience i tell myself “dont lead! follow!!!”. in long term positioning like you do i think the follow-approach is very usefull.

having a loosing strike aswell since a month i simply cant find my way out of it. maybe a brake of a week or two and playibg with newborn helps a bit. who knows. inner peace is key i guess.

I like it: don’t lead, follow… Maybe I jumped in too soon (although even my ‘jumping in’ was based on months of waiting for ‘the right moment’ haha)…

How old is your baby? When was it born? Have we all missed this?? Or is it due any time soon?

was born on 22nd. noo noone missed it, i didnt make a post about it. i became a bit quiet the last few weeks on babypips. focusing on coming up on top of things again and a lot of stress in my work/business outside of trading.

the name is Gabriel was born with exact 3 kilos next friday is christening :smiley:

but didnt spend much time with him yet. simoly to overworked, thats why a brake would do good i guess.

Congratulations, and may this baby bring a beautiful Dow break below the current floor!!


haha good one

thank you bro

Try to think: Discipline trumps conviction.
One thing that became evident to me over the years, is that you have to try to approach trading w/ as little as a personal bias as possible. I know it’s tough, but hear me out…

A lot of pit traders back in the day would talk about guys who’d make a killing, who weren’t exactly, the sharpest tool in the shed. What I mean- they weren’t too intelligent. They’d come in, w/ a neutral mindset, and just react to what the market gives them. Highly intelligent folks have the likelihood of over-thinking situations b/c they are aware of the variables. Add in emotions, and you’re at a disadvantage.

They say the market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent for a reason!
Trying to predict movements in price is one of the hardest tasks possible and for the most part we’re all in the same boat.

Just try to be as consistent as possible and trade what you see, not what you want to see. Literally try to dumb yourself down (as stupid as that sounds).

And one other thing I’ll say…and I’m not taking a personal stab @ you. You and I have some history on this thread and I just want to provide my opinion on what I see…

I know you’re a huge fan of Kicklighter and that whole crew- they do GREAT things, there is no denying that. But, that group’s main function is not to trade. It’s to analyze the markets and tell you what has happened already then provide context. They are all analysts. They don’t run funds and likely don’t have millions of dollars worth of capital under management. Again, I’m not knocking them, but, I just question how much of an influence their opinions have on your trading decisions.

I could be speaking out of place very easily, as we don’t interact as often anymore. But, from what I rmrbr I know you were following them very closely, and us retailers can easily get caught up in taking their words for gospel, inadvertently planting a seed of subjectivity when we then go to analyze the charts. At the end of the day, their job is to provide content, not provide returns to a portfolio. You’re a smart dude, and I know my game was elevated when I completely disconnected from all the talking heads.

I’ll tune into CNBC / Bloomberg just to keep up w/ news, but when it comes to making trading decisions I completely tune them out.

Hello Jake,

this is a great post, and I cannot thank you enough… I have been thinking a lot about these things

and my long-term trading strategy…

Kicklighter actually does trade and he reveals all his trades (because he always declares an interest

when analysing a currency pair on which he has a bias), winners and losers, so that is what makes him

more than just an analyst… he learns from his mistakes and makes them public… Yes, he has a day job

as an analyst and the trading is on top, but there is nothing like putting your money on the line to

keep you truly engaged with the markets, and he certainly does that…

But I do not take what he says as gospel, yet I learn a lot from him because he has so much

to offer in his videos about how to look not just a technicals but at the wider picture, from

emerging market ETFs and risk trends globally, to central bank interest rate decisions and

assigning probabilities of bullish/bearish outcomes… He and the FXCM crew make no bones

about the fact that they too trade as retail traders, so that makes them more truthful than

others who claim to be ‘in the know’ when all they do is analyse charts but never get dirty,

so to speak…

Aaaaanyway, I agree with you about reacting to what you see rather than what you would

like to see (‘hope’ as Merlin Rothfeld at Power Trading Radio says, is the dirtiest word in

trading)! However if you listen to interviews with fundamental, macro traders, they all talk

about trading ‘themes’: granted, I do not have half their knowledge, time, and capital invested

in trading my account, but I like to think that even scaled down it can work to use the thematic


I do not see price in the Kiwi exchange rate changing fundamentals, as the medium and the long term

may have one thing in common (that is, they are both unknowns), however they are different things:

the Kiwi may have jumped up from 0.68 to 0.71 in the last week and a half, but the outlook remains

pegged to a significantly more bullish counterpart (the Fed), albeit lower yielding.

There is much to be said about the ‘Shanghai accord’ and the ‘death of the Dollar’, but until these

rumours become a trading reality, and we see the Yuan replacing the Dollar as the world’s reserve

currency (which may well be happening in the medium term), then it is more attractive to back

even a small Fed rate increase than a high-yielding but ultimately rate-cutting RBNZ.

Overall, the Kiwi is more exposed to Asian and Chinese headwinds, and recent dairy export slumps

have provided a real headache for the RBNZ, meaning that it is not going to raise rates well into the

future… So you have a higher-yielding but static/dovish central bank of a small country versus the bank of

the world’s largest economy on the path to raising interest rates… This is the theme that is playing out for


Thanks for taking the time to respond. I’m on the same page w/ everything you say, except for the end ;).
And this is what makes a market! You think one thing, I think another and we meet in the market place!

That [I]theme [/I]makes sense, but, is it what is happening in the price action? Price action negates theme. Kinda like rock beats scissors :wink:

Absolutely…at which point do I rip up my plan? Every trader, short or long term, must face up to the possibility of failure at some point…