I have recently been wondering about the long-term approach… Truly, my 2015 trading (first half) was good, but since the summer of that year, when I switched to long-term positioning, I had to endure endless perioeds of drawdown…
Did I choose the wrong trades for my long-term approach and my vision?
The answer is: not really. I have a fundamental view and price fluctuations have not altered that: I believe equities and Yen currency pairs ripe for a rinse-out, and I believe the Pound to be a winning currency against some counterparts, in the medium future… Even large drawdowns have not altered this view, which is why I have not taken off my positions: they are being managed, as time will ultimately turn these themes up to their full volume, and then I will start planning my profit taking…
Self-belief is the difficult art of balancing price analysis and future forecasts, so if price + time = bias then the time element cannot be taken out of the equation.
just close the position and forget abput it. if u close it now in a week you will forget about it if you keep it up youll only be more stressed for much longer time. isnt buddha about not beeing stressed or something like that?
I have waited this long, Turbo, I honestly think this kind of thing take time… a 3.0 target is not much to ask, it just takes time… I am not stressed from a risk/account point of view, just frustrated by the fundamentals taking their sweet time to play out.
i completely understand you and assure you im experiencing the same problem a lot of times. it is frustrating very frustrating to wait for things to allign. everytime i have such an experience i tell myself “dont lead! follow!!!”. in long term positioning like you do i think the follow-approach is very usefull.
having a loosing strike aswell since a month i simply cant find my way out of it. maybe a brake of a week or two and playibg with newborn helps a bit. who knows. inner peace is key i guess.
was born on 22nd. noo noone missed it, i didnt make a post about it. i became a bit quiet the last few weeks on babypips. focusing on coming up on top of things again and a lot of stress in my work/business outside of trading.
the name is Gabriel was born with exact 3 kilos next friday is christening
but didnt spend much time with him yet. simoly to overworked, thats why a brake would do good i guess.
Try to think: Discipline trumps conviction.
One thing that became evident to me over the years, is that you have to try to approach trading w/ as little as a personal bias as possible. I know it’s tough, but hear me out…
A lot of pit traders back in the day would talk about guys who’d make a killing, who weren’t exactly, the sharpest tool in the shed. What I mean- they weren’t too intelligent. They’d come in, w/ a neutral mindset, and just react to what the market gives them. Highly intelligent folks have the likelihood of over-thinking situations b/c they are aware of the variables. Add in emotions, and you’re at a disadvantage.
They say the market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent for a reason!
Trying to predict movements in price is one of the hardest tasks possible and for the most part we’re all in the same boat.
Just try to be as consistent as possible and trade what you see, not what you want to see. Literally try to dumb yourself down (as stupid as that sounds).
And one other thing I’ll say…and I’m not taking a personal stab @ you. You and I have some history on this thread and I just want to provide my opinion on what I see…
I know you’re a huge fan of Kicklighter and that whole crew- they do GREAT things, there is no denying that. But, that group’s main function is not to trade. It’s to analyze the markets and tell you what has happened already then provide context. They are all analysts. They don’t run funds and likely don’t have millions of dollars worth of capital under management. Again, I’m not knocking them, but, I just question how much of an influence their opinions have on your trading decisions.
I could be speaking out of place very easily, as we don’t interact as often anymore. But, from what I rmrbr I know you were following them very closely, and us retailers can easily get caught up in taking their words for gospel, inadvertently planting a seed of subjectivity when we then go to analyze the charts. At the end of the day, their job is to provide content, not provide returns to a portfolio. You’re a smart dude, and I know my game was elevated when I completely disconnected from all the talking heads.
I’ll tune into CNBC / Bloomberg just to keep up w/ news, but when it comes to making trading decisions I completely tune them out.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I’m on the same page w/ everything you say, except for the end ;).
And this is what makes a market! You think one thing, I think another and we meet in the market place!
That [I]theme [/I]makes sense, but, is it what is happening in the price action? Price action negates theme. Kinda like rock beats scissors