I am going through the pip school and at the same time I’m reading about the different tools I am trying them out, and I got a bit excited because I think I spotted my first trend! Just wanted others opinions really as I know it is all subjective.
Its on the GBP-USD and I’m on the 4 hour chart and its a downtrend.
The Swing High is at 26th Feb 4am (1.55111) and the low is at 27th Feb at 12pm (1.53830).
Looking at it as it is, it had tested 38.2 on the Fibonacci but closed below it a number of times.
Also, looking back towards 23rd/24th Feb, there seems to be some support/resistance around the 38.2 level.
I am hoping now this is going to continue its downtrend.
There is quite a lot on the economic calendar for Sunday which is a slight worry as I am not quite confident on what releases will effect the price most, but any thoughts welcome.
To quote the,“Pirates of the Caribbean”.They are more like guide-lines than rules.You will need to trade at least 6 months to even get a real idea of how wrong or right you are.If your present prediction is correct it may lull you into a false sense of accomplishment and then lose money(Yes lose,not loose<grin>).
There are professional traders who have been mentored for years to become solvent.There are home-traders who have lost a lot of money but stuck with it and then learnt to trade well.The web-sites make many believe it’s,“Easy Money”,it’s not.It take time,dedication and practice.
I’ve been demo trading for around 6 months and I’m only just getting confident to use my own money thanks to forums like this.Remember,there’s no rush.Take your time.Demo accounts are free but they are not the same as using your own money,which I have done.I didn’t win but I didn’t lose but I stopped to learn again and better
I do not say you are wrong and that GU will not fall down, but you are calling this (GU H4) a downtrend ?
For me it is still higher highs, higher lows. That does not mean you are wrong and I see your point, but it would rather be an analysis from the H1 timeframe. I am not trading from H1 but yes there is a resistance around 1,545 so what you say makes sense. If you enter short watch the 1,5325 level as it is a strong support.
Thanks Stefcio for the great feedback. I am looking at the 1 Hour chart, and I did notice the long general uptrend on the 4 hour prior to this recent downtrend.
This is my fib chart showing the resistance line in red. I note your point about the 1.5325 level support and I will watch to see how it goes when/if it hits that level and breaks through it I think I might sell.
Hi Simon.
Definitely an uptrend in H4. You might get a short in lower time frames but not this one.
Personally I use H4 or D1 to get the trend, then drop down to a lower time frame to find an entry point.
How far into pipschool are you, are you doing the quizzes? Its a great way to see how much you understand about each of forex’s aspects which in turn will help you choose a trading style/strategy that best suits you.
Good luck and dont rush into live trading
Thanks Ed. I am on Fib charts on pipschool and am continuing today, I just find it helpful to apply it to real time charts. Don’t worry I am not blowing any big money on these trades!
I see from the D1 chart, from June 2013 to Dec 2013 the theres a huge downtrend, then and uptrend Jan/Feb this year.
I guess the judgement call is how far back do you look at. Your opinions are very much appreciated,
Thanks
S
How far you look back and in which time frames will depend on how you plan to trade (this comes later in pipschool).
My average time in a trade is over 7 hours, so H4 and D1 are good trend spotters for me. If I was only in trades for under 30 minutes I would probably use M30 or M15, if I was scalping perhaps only M1 would be of interest.
