My friend's holy grail

Trading Systems Expert Advisors and Automated Trading
1

Hi everyone,

I have this kiddo friend of mine who is covertly known as a trading prodigy in some Forex circles despite his rather young years. Judging by the Jaguar XF he drives and by the fact that he has no mortgage on his luxury apartment in his mid-twenties, I take it he is pretty successful with his trading, cause that’s all he now does for living, despite having been schooled in several fields.

I got to know him through some mutual acquaintances working for Forex brokers. The brokers do not quite like this guy in my understanding for an apparent reason yet he must have some dealings with them, as he regularly attends their expos worldwide and is on a first name basis with quite a few of their bosses.

He has recently shared with me a couple of tick data backtests of his most recent EA for EURUSD and GBPUSD showing an untold combined net profit of 730% over the last 2.5 years. According to his words, one pair always makes up for the other one whenever a losing trade (or a series of them) occurs, despite the two pairs being known to behave similarly and sharing the same trading strategy.

He created this EA for participation in an online contest at forexsensation.com (please, don’t consider as advertising - I’ve never liked this flashy stuff but maybe it’s just me). I have also seen his live trading with Pepperstone where the trades on his live account pretty accurately match those on his tick data backtests. However, I did not get the privilege to receive an actual copy of the EA from him. He says he might share it with me after the contest is over but we are yet to see that happening.

Meanwhile, I’m trying to figure what the damn thing might be all about based on the backtest reports and settings. Clearly, I lack expertise on the matter, so this forum looks like an ideal place for this task - well, at least as good as it can get.

I am attaching the original backtest reports and their combination produced in a program called ReportManager. This program, however, merely adds up the trades, not calculating the impact of the lot and balance change over the course of two pairs being traded simultaneously (and I don’t even know if a program doing that even exists).

Any thoughts as to what his strategy can be as well as attempts to reconstruct it in an EA would be greatly appreciated.

FriendsGrail.zip (104 KB)

2

Seems like a short term/scalping system that perhaps uses some scaling-in risk management based on some multiple. The trade lengths range from 1 minute to ~2hours from what I can tell, with an average between 10 - 30 minutes. Average TP is roughly 5-15 pips and his average loss is ~20 - 35 pips.

Do you have the original MT4 generated backtest reports? GBPUSD and EURUSD individually? I can tell you much more with those.

Edit: Just realized they’re in there. I’ll take another look for you in a second.

3

It was a true pleasure chatting with Clark privately. I would like to take my chance and thank him for the hints he’s given me.

The bot’s author has honored my request and sent me his tick data backtests with 99.9% modeling quality since 01.01.2008 (the earliest available tick data through Tickstory which he is using for backtesting). I am attaching these original backtests along with my combined backtest report produced in ReportManager for your review below.

He says over these past 5.5 years the markets have pretty much seen it all. He doesn’t view this or any other EA as something that will provide for you for life - just says if a bot is showing high consistent profits over the past few years and also successfully survives the 2008-2009 market turmoil, it’s by all means a good bot.

He has also confirmed his willingness to swap this EA for an equally good one with tick data backtests over the same period of time and investor access to a live account with at least a couple of months of history - just to see if the live trades are generally matching those on the bot’s tick data backtests. He will privately provide investor access to his live account in return.

I have investor access to that live account myself and can confirm the trades there are generally matching those on his tick data backtests. He sees no problem with me privately sending the investor access to that account to a moderator or a trusted long-time member of this forum at their request to verify its existence and performance in this thread. The account is with the regulated Australian brokerage Pepperstone Financial - one of the country’s largest.

If anyone is interested, please, feel free to send me a private message on this forum or at <[email protected]> and I will broker a deal for you, ending up with at least two good EAs at my hands for my trading. Please, do not offer money or rehashed versions of existing commercial EAs that are largely good for nothing anyway.

FriendsGrail2008-2013.zip (215 KB)

4

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503091”]It was a true pleasure chatting with Clark privately. I would like to take my chance and thank him for the hints he’s given me.

The bot’s author has honored my request and sent me his tick data backtests with 99.9% modeling quality since 01.01.2008 (the earliest available tick data through Tickstory which he is using for backtesting). I am attaching these original backtests along with my combined backtest report produced in ReportManager for your review below.

He says over these past 5.5 years the markets have pretty much seen it all. He doesn’t view this or any other EA as something that will provide for you for life - just says if a bot is showing high consistent profits over the past few years and also successfully survives the 2008-2009 market turmoil, it’s by all means a good bot.

He has also confirmed his willingness to swap this EA for an equally good one with tick data backtests over the same period of time and investor access to a live account with at least a couple of months of history - just to see if the live trades are generally matching those on the bot’s tick data backtests. He will privately provide investor access to his live account in return.

I have investor access to that live account myself and can confirm the trades there are generally matching those on his tick data backtests. He sees no problem with me privately sending the investor access to that account to a moderator or a trusted long-time member of this forum at their request to verify its existence and performance in this thread. The account is with the regulated Australian brokerage Pepperstone Financial - one of the country’s largest.

If anyone is interested, please, feel free to send me a private message on this forum or at <[email protected]> and I will broker a deal for you, ending up with at least two good EAs at my hands for my trading. Please, do not offer money or rehashed versions of existing commercial EAs that are largely good for nothing anyway.[/QUOTE]

Lol I can make plenty of EAs that work from 2008 to 2013… Market structure changed dramatically after 2008… Now if he said he had an EA that worked from 2003 to 2007 and then also worked from 2008 to 2013 I would be impressed… The fact is markets change, unpredictably… EAs can’t dynamically change, they need constant attention and updating from someone who is finely in tune with the market to work. They are meant to be a supplement to a trader, not a replacement… Just keep this in mind for those of you enamored with idea EAs.

5

Let’s just start with one the results of which you will later show us here in a similar fashion. Deal?

6

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503109”]
Let’s just start with one the results of which you will later show us here in a similar fashion. Deal?[/QUOTE]

Heh… I deleted them after testing them over a period pre - 2008… The same reason your friend won’t show result for the EA from 2003 to 2007.

There is a reason he is only showing results for 5 years… It only takes a few minutes to run it for another 5…

7

At least, he has something to show. Do you?

8

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503112”]
At least, he has something to show. Do you?[/QUOTE]

Sure… Head over to my thread to see some results :wink:

9

Does it include tick data backtests with 99.9% modeling quality over the past 5.5 years and an investor password to an active live account?

10

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503116”]
Does it include tick data backtests with 99.9% modeling quality over the past 5.5 years and an investor password to an active live account?[/QUOTE]

Heh… Have fun with your EA :slight_smile:

11

I take it as a “no”. In that event, I would apprecite you not wasting any more of my time here.

12

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503118”]
I take it as a “no”. In that event, I would apprecite you not wasting any more of my time here.[/QUOTE]

It’s a public forum… If you don’t want others opinions I would suggest you not post public threads on public forums :slight_smile: in the meantime… Have fun with your friends EA that doesn’t work from 2003 to 2007.

13

Thread hijacking attempts are not appreciated at any public forum. As you have nothing of the kind, you have no business in this thread. Kindly stick to your own. Some people have actual developments to share while others have only their opinions. I take it the former are a lot more valuable to the public from the practical standpoint.

14

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503121”]
Thread hijacking attempts are not appreciated at any public forum. As you have nothing of the kind, you have no business in this thread. Kindly stick to your own. Some people have actual developments to share while others have only their opinions. I take it the former are a lot more valuable to the public from the practical standpoint.[/QUOTE]

My comments were directly related to the threads topic… It’s not my problem you didn’t like them… Not being able to see others stand points without getting defensive is a major weakness :slight_smile: don’t worry I’m sure your friends EA doesn’t have any though :slight_smile:

15

I don’t like such comments from those who themselves come empty-handed.

16

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503124”]
I don’t like such comments from those who themselves come empty-handed.[/QUOTE]

Again… Not my problem that you don’t like them… The posts are directly related to the thread. Hence not thread jacking.

17

I see no point in them other than wasting people’s time.

18

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503126”]
I see no point in them other than wasting people’s time.[/QUOTE]

Again… Not my problem that you won’t listen to anything but what you want to hear :slight_smile:

I brought up a pretty valid point… Which is why doesn’t your friend give you another 5 years worth of back testing?

19

I will listen to those who have something to offer in exchange per the requirements set forth. You have nothing.

20

[QUOTE=“bravehoststamps;503128”]
I will listen to those who have something to offer in exchange per the requirements set forth. You have nothing.[/QUOTE]

I have what a court of justice would define as an “expert opinion” … :slight_smile: if you don’t want opinions I would suggest you keep your threads off of public forums.