My FX Journey... From Dream To Reality

[macilme]

DAY 76 UPDATE (WEDNESDAY 5TH JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

Turns out today was less active than anticipated for me. Just one trade out of the many possible trade setups posted up here yesterday.

Here’s how our stats are looking like so far before we get into which of them gave us something to trade:

No of Trades so far: 29

No of Active Trades: 1

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 9

Break Even Trades: 4

Right, now that that’s out of the way, which of the pairs on the watch list posted up yesterday got traded you might ask?

Well… Cable it is:

GBUSD BEARISH ENGULFING BAR SHORT

GBP/USD H4

We had this on our radar yesterday as price had been approaching this former support level on a retrace following the bearish momentum generated after that huge pin bar just above the lower level shown on the charts.

Price then forms up a bearish engulfing bar right at the resistance level on this pair. We did set a limit entry order and are already in the trade. Trade got activate right around the rollover period so it cost an extra 7 pips in spread just because of that
We are watching how this turns out though in any case.

Current trade got triggered right on New York close, that basically was how quiet the day turned out to be.

Tomorrow will be another day of trading and we’ll catch up again at the end of it all again Journal.

[hikaru259]

Thank you for your analysis. I love the way you use price actions,it’s very clean and easy to understand. I have learned so much. Please keep it’s good work. Thank you.

[macilme]

DAY 77 UPDATE (THURSDAY 6TH JUNE 2019)

Hey Journal…

Another long day, another new trade, another “no red” day (at least not yet), but another “no green” day as well.

Stats first, the rest later:

No of Trades so far: 30

No of Active Trades: 2

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 9

Break Even Trades: 4

.

What’d you miss?..

@macilme

GBUSD BEARISH ENGULFING BAR SHORT

GBP/USD H4

Well it does look like a tighter stop loss placement on this trade would have been fatal for this trade as price ended up making a pretty strong push at the resistance level during the day. It managed to get pretty close to our stop level just 12.5 pips away from the bullish candled that threatened to kick us out of the trade.

Trade at the moment is still in the red but our bias before trade entry is still valid so no reason to think of exiting just yet. Tomorrow should give us something more to chew on this one. Would be nice to see price on the green side tomorrow.

.

CADJPY BEEB SHORT

CA/JPY H4

Looking at this trade in hindsight, it seems quite difficult to justify that BEEB short as that signal candle seems to have formed between two key levels (remember that strategy dictates only taking trades right at/on key levels or zones). However when the candle did form it was considered valid as it’s high was showing a price rejection of the key psychological 81.000 price level, it seemed likely at the time that price may just head down lower right from that point. To play on the safer side though, I decided to have my stop above the identified key resistance level on the chart.

Turns out it was the correct decision as price not only failed to head immediately south, it managed to end up trading above the signal candle itself towards the end of the New York session. While the only thing keeping us in this trade so far is the stop level placement., the only way this trade could end up as profitable is for the key level to hold and price managing not to wick over our stop level.

Keeping my fingers crossed and hoping all these check boxes get ticked.

That’s all we’ll be looking forward to tomorrow Journal, unless we get a new trade set up on a Friday, which is quite rare, relatively speaking. Guess we’ll see at the end of the trading tomorrow what kind of week this one is.

Catch you tomorrow Journal.

And keep the pips rolling in as well if you’re reading this.

[macilme]

DAY 78 UPDATE (FRIDAY 7TH JUNE 2019)

Well Hello there Journal…

And it’s the end of the week, not the kind we were looking for by the way. You won’t have to wait long to find out why.

Stats before the rant:

No of Trades so far: 30

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 4

Here’s what happened to the two trades dancing with death yesterday:

GBPUSD BEEB SHORT UPDATE

GBP/USD H4

CADJPY BEEB SHORT UPDATE

CAD/JPY H4

Classic cases of pictures worth more than a thousand words right? Ugly looking for shorts like me, beautiful sight for longs.

In the end the stop levels weren’t enough and we had to sulk of these two with a stinging loss. NFP was enough reason to have exited these trades prematurely, but both trades were already heftily in losses and getting out could have been even more painful if the results had been the other way around.

In any case that’s how we ended the week, two straight losses and almost all profits earlier in the week back to the market.

[GilasTrading]

Don’t worry about it, you just had a not good week that’s all. I underperformed my expectations as well. Seems like a few others have struggled as well this week. It’s one of those weird weeks where the markets do stuff to screw with us retail traders. Cheer up, you’ve still got money in your account and can bounce back when opportunities present themselves this week.

[macilme]

Thanks buddy… really crazy week you’re right. Hopefully next week will be much better.

Some sort of clarification though. I think most people who come around here see this thread as a representation of a live account, which it isn’t really lol.

I’m still on the demo haha … So I guess your week was in actual sense much worse than mine money wise lol.

I simply treat this as a real account with real trading since that’s exactly how I plan to continue trading when I go live.

Maybe one of these days i’ll be raking in pips the way you do lol.

[GilasTrading]

I know it’s a demo. But if taken seriously a few losses on a demo can be confidence eroding. Look at the bigger picture not just the past few days or weeks. You’re well on your journey. Me, I’ve just gotten a lucky streak the past few weeks. My week wasn’t bad really, but irritated at myself, made less than half what I made the previous week, when I had set my targets at beating the previous week.

[macilme]

Exactly… demo can be as real as you make it…

When I look at my trade results, what I really see is my live account performance in the future. Mistakes here are money siphons later, good trading on the demo is more money and better capital preservation in the world of real money trading.

Everything is all about perspective

[ProfAAA]

Looks like NFP week hit you as well @macilme, we’ll bounce back stronger.
Have a pip-filled week.

[macilme]

DAY 81 UPDATE (MONDAY 10TH JUNE 2019)

Hey Journal…

New week, and we get to have a go at the markets all over again. Last week ended less than preferred profit wise, will this week end differently?

Stats:

No of Trades so far: 31

No of Active Trades: 1

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 4

And we’ve started the week with another short on a Monday, here’s how it’s looking?

AUDCHF BREAKOUT SHORT

AUD/CHF H4

This pair had been testing the key price level (BRN) 0.69000 since May 24th when it fired of a pin bar on the H4 right on the key support level. Finally after a number of subsequent retests, price is finally trading below this level and we have entered a short banking on riding the bearish momentum.

watching this trade closely to see how this trade performs in the coming hours.

And that’s Monday in short for you Journal… Maybe tomorrow will get us more trades, maybe not.

Fingers crossed.

Catch ya tomorrow Journal.

[1odi]

@macilme i get how ur trading, but how do u protect urself against fakeouts? i see ur trading breakouts, but price tends to slip under or above ur line and then go the either way. why? cos there s no line in the sand, but…there are areas of suport and resistance. looking at the stats that u posted, u could do way better then that… let say if u wait for a retest of that broken level, and then enter. price tends to retest a lvl that was broken 80% of the time. so called smart money(people with big accounts that know what they are doing) set it up for a test of the broken resist or support, if the test is succesfull and the supply or demand has been absorbed, then they can go into markup or markdown fase. u could add volume to ur chart to help u identify areas of huge interest, activity and could also help you with the entries, specially the way you trade without tests. anyways, keep up the good work, ur doing great. cheers

[1odi]

normally i d take a short, right after the second red candle closed, but because in the overall picture volume is decreasing, plus we are at the area of weekly, daily support, where it could range before continuining the move down or start pushing up, i ll stay away and not trade this pair, just monitor. tests(pullbacks) can be with high volume or low volume. low volume meaning the demand has been crushed in this case, or above average volume meaning sellers are comin in and are overwhelming the demand etc… . for the way u trade i d suggest reading anna coullings books, very easy and pragmatic way of understanding price action in relation to volume, think it could help u. cheers

[macilme]

DAY 82 UPDATE (TUESDAY 11TH JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

Pretty active Tuesday on this end…

Stats:

No of Trades so far: 34

No of Active Trades: 4

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 4

Yeah, quite a number of trades for a single day. So what’s up with our current short entry on AUDCHF

@macilme

AUDCHF BREAKOUT SHORT

AUD/CHF H4

Price has since retraced back to broken support level for a retest, we are watching for favourable bearish PA at this level so price can head back south. Guess we’ll be finding out more about that tomorrow.

A few more trades today but we’ll be talking about the current AUDCHF short in play. I’ll be chipping in pictures for the others tomorrow right on this post so keep in touch.

1. CADCHF (LONG)

2. NZDJPY (SHORT)

3. US30 INDEX (SHORT)

So that’s a quick shot at today’s activities.

Tomorrow’s another day Journal… Until then, Stay profitable

[tradernubie]

Hi macilme,

I’ve been closely following this thread since last month and I have learned a lot from you. I am also new and a big fan of naked trading using PA…

Anyway, good catch with NZDJPY, because I also saw the bearish engulfing on the daily chart and took the trade. But I secured my profit already since there are just too many traffics on the left, and I was just impatient…

Good luck with those trades!

[macilme]

DAY 83 UPDATE (WEDNESDAY 12TH JUNE 2019)

Hey there Journal…

A bit late incoming, but here is the daily update as promised Day 83…

Stats:

No of Trades so far: 34

No of Active Trades: 4

Profitable Trades: 15

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 4

First we take a look at our old AUDCHF short trade:

AUD/CHF H4

Bullish attempt at pushing back up above the big psychological price level of 0.69000 eventually fails and price showed that by a strong momentum bearish candle to the downside. We have moved our stop lower to protect half of the short position here just in case.

So we took a few trades earlier that wasn’t graphically represented here, some of which have made some progress:

@macilme

1. CADCHF (LONG)

CAD/CHF H8

Price still is finding itself in an indecision mode at this confluence of resistance (I had started considering them as support a few hours earlier haha). Hopefully it decides it’s finally had enough of that descending channel and gives us a nice boost to the upside. At this point though, anything can happen, worse, we might see the stop level getting hit before price moves in the direction of our bias as price volatility at confluence points can be sometimes above average.

@macilme

2. NZDJPY (SHORT)

NZD/JPY D1

NZD/JPY H4

We shorted the Bearish Engulfing Bar (BEEB) as seen on the daily chart just around the key price zone of 72.000.Price has since headed lower and is showing signs of more downside momentum hopefully to our first TP level to give us a chance to bank some profits. Stop on this trade has already been adjusted to BE so this is more or less a risk free trade onwards.

.

@macilme

3. US30 INDEX (SHORT)

US30 H4

This is one of the unlucky ones actually, as price makes a bit of a move lower, I decided to move to BE as soon as possible as that last leg down in play is starting to look more like a correction of the prior bullish move up than a strong reversal. Turns out we got taken out at BE as price was trading pretty close to the level.

And that’s pretty much how it all ended… No trades for the day here (WED 12TH) and as such we sign out with a report on old ones only.

Catch you around journal.

[macilme]

Hey there @1odi, actually my trade was on the AUDCHF pair and not AUDJPY but in any case, Straight out breakouts are some of the trades I take based on different rules, otherwise you are right that there isn’t a better way to trade trends than on retrace entries.

I take straight breaks for example on a momentum break beyond a big psychological price level like the one on CADCHF as I just updated recently on the journal here.
Basically the idea of doing all that on a demo is to try and figure out what works and what doesn’t for when I do go live.

It looks like you have a lot of stuff going on your posted chart haha, So it’ll probably be unlikely for us both to agree on most trade setups as you obviously consider more technicals than I do.

But thanks for checking in and following my journal though… the more the meirrier they say

[macilme]

Good for you @tradernubie, I am still in on this one but risk free as my stop is now at Break Even. Let’s see how it all turns eh?

[1odi]

yes, ur right @macilme, we can agree to disagree…i m trading my own money since a while now, and what u r trying to do i ve tried. and i realised that the amount of times the smart money fake breaks to take the herds money is just to much to have a decent win/loss ration, and frustrating…i trade price action mostly, those emas i have on my chart are just visual aid and make s the chart look nicer, plus confluence for entries and exits… that s all. i m sorry i posted on ur journal, i was just trying to help u, but i guess better leave u to ur concept, as clearly u know better,i just hope u have a safe money management plan with that way of trading, as u gonna need it to break even most of the times. good luck in ur future endevours

[macilme]

DAY 84 UPDATE (THURSDAY 13TH JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

And it’s another New York close.

.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 37

No of Active Trades: 4

Profitable Trades: 17

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 5

Alright… how we doing so far:

@macilme

AUDCHF short trade:

AUD/CHF H4

Had to close this trade as swap fees got too high… just look at the fees below, and that’s just for a few days of the trade staying open.

.

@macilme

CADCHF (LONG)

CAD/CHF H8

Price still continues indecisive for the second day running on this pair. Whatever decisive move we have is very likely to be explosive going forward. still watching this one.

.

@macilme

NZDJPY (SHORT)

NZD/JPY H4

Price is still trading below BE level on this pair, hopefully tomorrow provides enough movement down to our first TP level.

**AUDJPY **

AUDJPY H1

Shorted this pair yesterday but missed it during last night’s entry. Price forms a Bearish Engulfing Bar after a quick break and retest of the key level shown above. We went short and price moved quickly down to target. Pretty textbook trade this one.

.
TODAY’S TRADES:

AUDCAD BULLISH PINBAR LONG

AUDCAD H4

Price forms a bullish Pin Bar at a key price level which also double as the psychological price level of 0.9200 as shown on the chart above. Long entry recently got triggered and we are watching how this one unfolds.

GBPCHF 2BAR REVERSAL SHORT

GBPCHF H4

Price forms a 2 bar reversal pattern at the former price flip level on the chart as shown, entry was triggered at the break of the pattern lower and we are watching how this unfolds on this one as well.

And that’s how the day turned out in the end… What’s this week ending going to look like? Profitable?

I sure hope so… see ya tomorrow journal.

[tradernubie]

Congrats for the profits @macilme, great trades as always
You’re really inspiring me to learn more and more.

I also noticed the AUDCAD pinbar and took the trade. Let’s hope it plays out well.
As for GBPCHF, I saw it yesterday but didn’t take the trade as the risk is too high for me (>50 pips).

Can I ask you a question? If you see multiple good setup, but you already have some pairs in trade, how do you handle it?

Also, do you mind sharing the gain percentage from all your trades? I am just curious, and might as well motivates me even more