My FX Journey... From Dream To Reality

macilme · June 15, 2019, 12:48am

DAY 85 UPDATE (FRIDAY 14TH JUNE 2019)

Well Hey there Journal.

Turns out this week turned out pretty good after all. A ‘‘No draw down week’’ is always a good week on the books right?.. Right??

Alright… Stats before the rant:

STATS

No of Trades so far: 37

No of Active Trades: 3

Profitable Trades: 18

Losing Trades: 11

Break Even Trades: 5

INTERESTINGLY AS IT TURNS OUT… I am now concluding typing on my mobile as my computer browsers decided it would be so nice to wait until Friday close before crashing

Well at least it’s friday…

Hopefully I can get it fixed soon and have this post up edited with charts as appropriate.

Till then enjoy the weekend guys… Profitable week or not, we deserve it

EDIT:

So I finally got my computer back up and working again… Here’s how the last set of trades last week played out graphically:

Finally on this pair we got wicked out of the trade… there’s no telling where price might still be heading to from there though… I might be taking look at this come Monday just to find out.

Well we wanted a push lower and that’s exactly what we got… First TP level hit and looking like there’s still more downside momentum to come… This is now both a free and profitable trade. I’ll take it

Price played around for a bit below entry, however a nice last bullish candle push higher before New York close. Looking nicely for further push higher so far. Price firing off that bullish PA at the key price level of 0.92000 was enough confluence to get us into this trade. Hopefully it works out.

I didn’t get a chance to move the trade on this pair to BE before market closed, but seeing from the chart above price has now moved lower to a minor support level, plan is to protect the trade at this point in the case of a reversal. Still watching how this trade plays out come market open.

So that’s pretty much how the week ended, a few trades closed in profit, a couple closed at a loss… and another few left open in the green.

Tomorrow’s hopefully gonna open up the week on a good note.

Ana_Litvi · June 15, 2019, 1:18am

Hi! You’re doing a great job! Good luck!

macilme · June 17, 2019, 10:17pm

DAY 88 UPDATE (MONDAY 17TH JUNE 2019)

Hi Journal…

So it’s end of day on Monday. How’re we doing this first day of the week?

STATS

No of Trades so far: 38

No of Active Trades: 3

Profitable Trades: 18

Losing Trades: 12

Break Even Trades: 5

Well we had to close the day with our first loss of the week… on this one:

Coming off of the Bullish pin bar a few candles to the left of the current candle here and the big round number acting at support, it was enough reason to put in a long order on this pair. However since the trade got triggered, price has managed to close below this key level three times. This doesn’t mean that the level is no longer valid as price can push back above. A daily close below this level as seen on the daily chart shown below has seriously weakened my bullish bias on this pair.

So I felt better pulling out with a 60% loss running on the open position rather than holding out for either a full loss or a possible move back into profit.

Remember we did take off half position on this one on Friday?. Well now I made the decision on a quick break and retest of the minor level on the chart to add a little position (0.25% of normal lot size at 1:2.5 R:R) to see if I can squeeze some more profit out of this one. Here’s the hourly chart for more clarity below:

.

GBPCHF 2BR SHORT UPDATE

This one looking good so far. After being able to move our stop to BE on market open today, price has now made mincemeat of that minor level with a decisive break and move lower to the downside. Watching how this one performs in the coming day or two.

No new baby trades today so I guess we still have a day or two more to wait before another one comes along. Here’s a nice looking set up I’m watching at the moment though:

USDCHF CONFLUENCE POINT

Price has arrived at a confluence of resistance as seen with overhead bearish trendline and daily resistance level. There’s no telling what’s gonna happen here as it is sitting right at the Very Big Round Number 1.0000, price doesn’t get rounder than that haha . So with all the factors playing around here on this GBPCHF pair, a momentum bullish or bearish candle or a clear PA candle formation will definitely get me in on this trade.

Alright, that’s how the day played out over here on my computer screen …

How’d yours go… Hopefully better than mine?

steveepperson · June 17, 2019, 10:42pm

Wow, this is an awesome thread. Thank you for your hard work. I have a funny feeling I will be learning a lot from you. I’m a bit slow, so it will take me a while to catch up. Again, thanks for sharing your info and charts with us.

chimmyfx · June 18, 2019, 12:19am

Great thread indeed! Very inspiring to new traders like me. I am now an avid fan. Subscribing to your updates! Thank you @macilme

macilme · June 18, 2019, 9:20pm

DAY 89 UPDATE (TUESDAY 18TH JUNE 2019)

Hello there Journal…

Second day of the week, how’re we doing so far?

STATS

No of Trades so far: 40

No of Active Trades: 3

Profitable Trades: 19

Losing Trades: 13

Break Even Trades: 5

A couple more baby trades getting into the mix today but neither is the USDCHF potential trade we talked about yesterday.

First an update on formerly open trades from yesterday:

.

So last added small position added on this pair didn’t quite work out as price ended up retracing back above the minor resistance line. I closed all positions left on this pair therefore for an overall profit.

.
.
.
.
.

Price has now retraced back up for a retest of the formerly broken minor resistance, nothing to worry on this one though as this trade is already running at break even plus a couple of pips.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

TODAY’S TRADES
.
.

EURUSD BEEB SHORT

The news did help to drive the needed break below this level and generate the BEEB we’re trading at the moment on this pair. Price breaks below 1.12000 key level and closes below with a bearish engulfing bar formation. We are currently active on this trade and that big bearish momentum candle signals a likely comfortable run to target.

.
.
.

US30 BULLISH ENGULFING BAR (BUEB) LONG

Price had been ranging just below the key resistance level on this instrument around the 26150.0 price area so I had been watching this for a few days for a possible break higher. We had that bullish push above today and are already in via stop order as shown on chart above.

Here’s the daily chart shown below for a better view of price behavior around this level: A break above will see us looking at new highs for the year on the instrument as the level has been tested a few times before and reversed. The last time being April of this year.

And that’s pretty much how the day went down chart wise. Tomorrow will be another trading day. Hope you guys got some greenbacks in the bag today though.

See ya tomorrow journal.

EDIT:
You guys can figure out already figure out what I’m looking at right here right?.. Right!!!

Stop orders placed… Watching if this gets triggered on the morrow.

macilme · June 19, 2019, 9:06pm

Thanks for the vote of confidence lol @chimmyfx and @steveepperson, glad you found my Journal useful.

macilme · June 19, 2019, 9:30pm

DAY 90 UPDATE (WEDNESDAY 19TH JUNE 2019)

And we hit the 90 day mark!!! How about that?!

.
HOW BOUT THAT
.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 40

No of Active Trades: 3

Profitable Trades: 19

Losing Trades: 13

Break Even Trades: 5

.

Alright Wednesday here, how did open trades fare today:.

This pair looks like it’s nearing the end of it’s retrace move as seen on the chart. If that turns out to be true, then we are looking at a quite likely resumption of the southbound movement to our profit target. On the other hand though, we may get stopped out on this one before that happens depending on how this trade progresses from here.
.
.
.

And this is why SL placements has and will always be an issue with trading. Just look how much room price had between entry and where the stop level was. But still price did push through the resistance enough to hit my stop.

Does this mean my stop placement was poor, maybe, maybe not, however there isn’t a way to prevent being stopped out this way every once in a while as it comes with the territory. The correct question for the professional trader though is how often that happens.

For now though this trade gets added to my unlucky list until my trade history proofs otherwise (that I have indeed been setting my stop levels too tight).

.

This one’s looking good so far, watching how it moves in the coming days.

.
.
.
.

TODAY’S TRADES
.
.

Well if this isn’t why we trade I don’t know why else. Where I’m progressing to is the kind of state where I have the kind of patience required to wait for setups like this.

Key price level+Big Psychological price 1.0000+Confluence of trend and horizontal resistance+trading with the trend = Absolute reason to be in the market.

Only problem is you don’t get these types of set ups often and you have to spend a lot of time waiting in between.

In any case, this trade is now heading my way and I expect it to hit first target 98 pips from entry pretty easily.

And that’s how the day ended on this one, a stinging loss on EURUSD but a possible reprieve on this USDCHF short.

Tomorrow brings another day, another Journal update, another set of lessons and a better trader, What’s not to love about trading uh?

Catch you tomorrow guys and hope you had a better day than I did.

macilme · June 20, 2019, 9:49pm

DAY 91 UPDATE (THURSDAY 20TH JUNE 2019)

Hey Journal…

New York Close on a Thursday, no new trades, old babies doing well…

.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 40

No of Active Trades: 3

Profitable Trades: 19

Losing Trades: 13

Break Even Trades: 5

All three open trades are now on a free roll as things stand, Part positions already closed and stops moved to BE on them all. That’s how I like things to be.

.
.

I did talk about my hunch on this pair gearing up for a resumption of it’s downtrend, it did resume but still taking it’s time getting lower to TP. Here’s how it looks like now:

Taking no risks on this trade, I have adjusted the stop down to secure 0.5R profit on the remaining position, first position was closed at 0.75R. Not quite as much return as planned during entry but protecting the profits take priority before anything.

.

as seen on the chart above, price found it’s way quite smoothly to the upper resistance level as expected. Half position has been closed on this trade while the other one got moved to BE. Price is currently at a really important key level on this one. Here’s the weekly chart for a bit of perspective:

Price testing this level three times on the weekly is a pretty significant pattern in my opinion, there are two scenarios:

Either price reverses from here and takes out the half position remaining on this pair and at break even, or it breaks topside and gives us a shot at improving the overall R:R on this trade. A few more hours or days will provide the outcome on this one.
.

.

USDCHF ENGULFING BAR SHORT UPDATE

Talked about this short trade yesterday and it encountered very little trouble on its way to first TP level. I have adjusted the trade as seen on the chart above. Free trade as it stands but we’ll take a hit on TP2 if the markets decide to be nice.

Not a bad result for a day without trades.

Catch you guys on the other side of Friday. Stay green

macilme · June 21, 2019, 9:29pm

DAY 92 UPDATE (FRIDAY 21ST JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

So it’s Friday and we did end up having quite a good trading week after all. Again no new trades today (It’s Friday after all), but we still had three trades running as of 24 hours ago.

So let’s take a look at what’s happened since then:

Stats before the rant…

.
.
.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 40

No of Active Trades: 2

Profitable Trades: 20

Losing Trades: 13

Break Even Trades: 5

So that’s how things stand at the end of the week.

On to trade reviews:

It really doesn’t get any closer than that does it? Price just about manages to kiss our TP2 level for a nice close on the second position on this trade and we are out with a nice 1:0.9 R:R. A nice trade close on this one for the week.

.

In truth I really would have preferred to close the second open position on this trade before market close, but I missed it by a few minutes from market close. Why?

Well it’s that ugly looking bearish pin bar at the resistance level up there (yes it’s ugly for this trade, might just as well be beautiful for a short if it had been jut a bit larger). I wanted to see a strong bullish momentum candle on Friday today but got a small but still valid bearish pin bar in return.

It still is open though and a significant gap down on this pair will see me close the trade on this pair instantly on Market open on Monday.

.

Not quite to the second TP on this one unlike GBPCHF, love how smoothly price has been sailing downwards on this one, but that also indicates a likely correction happening anytime soon. I have moved the stop even lower to secure more of the open profit on this in case price decides it’s making another corrective move upwards.

And that’s the week in a few paragraphs and green pips on my trading account. Hopefully you guys had a quite the similar experience.

Catch you guys on the other side of the weekend.

ProfAAA · June 23, 2019, 7:43am

the account’s growing more and more, great work on your consistency.
how’s your equity looking?

macilme · June 24, 2019, 9:41pm

DAY 95 UPDATE (MONDAY 24TH JUNE 2019)

Well hey Journal…

It’s Monday evening and the start of another trading week. Last week was encouraging. Will this week return something similar?

.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 1

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 13

Break Even Trades: 5

Yep, you guessed right (if you guessed at all). Monday ended with a new baby trade. However we take a look first at trades carried over from last week and how they’re doing at the moment:

.
.
.

Talked about how I would’ve preferred to close this one before the weekend on that little bearish pin bar at the upper resistance as seen above. Well price did make a feeble attempt at breaking the resistance (still couldn’t close above as yet). But in any case I am fully out of this one for some profit.

Price took an extra day on this one but it finally hit TP 2. I was worried about leaving this trade open over the weekend and tightened up my stop a little last week, but it all paid of in the end as the bearish momentum from last week was enough to push this pair even lower to target. There may still be more bearish movement to see on this downswing though.

.

TODAY’S TRADE
.

GBPUSD BEARISH ENGULFING BAR SHORT

There are many traders who wouldn’t consider shorting this pair (or being bullish on the USD) coming from the fundamental perspective. But I when I see a clearly formed BEEB at a key resistance level, I short the instrument or pair, no questions (unless it’s NFP day ).

Time will tell if this is one of the odd times where the PA edge falls short. In any case, I’m currently short on this par at 1.2715, around the resistance zone. Trade is currently active and we’re a few pips in the red. Hopefully tomorrow sees price moving in the direction of our present bias.

.
.

Slow days, but it’s only Monday so there’s still a lot to look forward over the course of the week.
How’d Monday Start out on your end trading-wise?

macilme · June 24, 2019, 9:44pm

@ProfAAA, thanks for the warm comments.

My equity growth isn’t stellar, but looking nice (for the moment). This is more of a developmental process though. So I’m really focusing on a lot more than the bottom line.

Profits aren’t anything but the results of the kind of trader you have been over the trading year. I try no to think about it too much.

And remember, it’s only a demo account.

macilme · June 25, 2019, 10:08pm

DAY 96 UPDATE (TUESDAY 25TH JUNE 2019)

Hey Journal…

The trader had a very dull day today, but the trader still has an update to make .

We had no new trades but seeing as there’s an outstanding trade on ground, time to take a look at how that’s been doing of late:

STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 14

Break Even Trades: 5

.

Yesterday’s Cable short did turn out in an interesting fashion, very much opposite to what we would have loved to see. Here’s what happened:

Well isn’t this all too familiar? Stops located too close for comfort. We’ve seen this at least a few times in the past month alone where the trade bias is as correct as can be, but the stops end up being insufficient breathing room for the trade in question.

Why don’t just adjust the damn stops then you might ask? Well, I could, but it would be more prudent to have enough trades with similar scenarios to back up the decision. We still are a long way off from the 100 trade mark, so my plan is to make the change if necessary after looking through the last 50 trades in due time. I’ll be sure to update on this as it unfolds.

That’s all the story for today though, hopefully tomorrow will have a better tint of green .

See ya tomorrow Journal.

macilme · June 26, 2019, 9:53pm

DAY 97 UPDATE (THURSDAY 26TH JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

Wednesday here. Spent most of the day out at work so nothing new to report today . It kinda feels a bit odd though.

But in any case, stats remain as they were at close of market yesterday:

.

STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 14

Break Even Trades: 5

Got another full day of work tomorrow so it’ll be pretty lucky if I can manage to spot a set up and get a trade in.

We’ll see.

macilme · June 27, 2019, 10:12pm

DAY 98 UPDATE (THURSDAY 27TH JUNE 2019)

Hello Journal…

Thursday here. Again I ended up spending most of the day out at work so nothing new to report today . Two straight days mostly away from the charts feels strangely much longer than it really is.

Might I have I developed an addiction to trading?

Again as was the case previously, stats remain as they were at close of market yesterday:

.

.
STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 14

Break Even Trades: 5

Maybe we’ll get a new trade setup on for a Friday, maybe not. In which case, this will end up officially as the leanest trading week ever on record for since the dawn of this journey.

Hopefully you guys have been having it better so far.

And I’ll be here tomorrow to let you know how the week rounds up.

macilme · June 28, 2019, 9:00pm

DAY 99 UPDATE (FRIDAY 28TH JUNE 2019)

Hey there Journal…

And that’s how it’s gonna end this week, three straight days of no trading activities. Quite the opposite of what I’m used to.

All should change next week hopefully, but if not I might be focusing more on the dailies in the coming weeks and that translates to a few more days like we’ve had in recent times. Hopefully the reduced activity get’s substituted by improved quality trade set ups.

So signing out this week will be with our stats unchanged for three days running now:

STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 14

Break Even Trades: 5

Next week it is then. Signing out on this end.

Have a fun filled weekend if you’re reading this

aalim79 · June 30, 2019, 12:02am

@macilme I’ve just caught up on your thread. Great work on the analysis you’ve been doing and keep it up.

macilme · July 1, 2019, 9:42pm

DAY 102 UPDATE (MONDAY 1ST JULY 2019

Well hello Journal…

And Monday it is again.

Last week went by largely uneventfully so hopefully this week gonna be different. I’m making a bit of an adjustment to my trading as it turns out my day Job just got much more demanding.

So the idea is to have to focus mainly on the daily charts as always and not attempt to chase set ups on lower time frames. If I happen to catch one while I’m at the computer and available to trade, nice. If not however then I do expect to have slow but enough reliable trades on the daily to make things worth my while.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. Have a look at NZDUSD today:

right up there is a nice looking bearish engulfing pattern (my kinda thing ) forming at a key resistance and round price number level. But since I’m working and not at the computer I did miss out on it.

Here’s how it’s looking at daily close:

Notice how this is a valid candle pattern but the minor resistance it’s sitting on makes it quite tricky to trade. Getting in earlier would’ve enabled me to close a part of the position for profit and moving the stop on the remainder to BE for a stress free trade.

I wouldn’t touch it now unfortunately until I can see a daily close below that minor resistance (price may head back up from there you never know, there’s also the double bottom signaling a potential bullish surge in the coming days).

So that’s pretty much what I’ll be giving up, on the plus side, I’ll be checking the charts less often now, and I’ll have more time to focus on my other alternative mechanical trading strategies (yes, I have two other systems I’m forward testing on two more demo accounts ). So it’s not such a bad deal in the end.

So in the spirit of daily setups, we haven’t yet a new trade to report on the journal as of yet. And again, (how many times has it been now?) we have to report an unchanged start for days now:

STATS

No of Trades so far: 41

No of Active Trades: 0

Profitable Trades: 22

Losing Trades: 14

Break Even Trades: 5

Slow and steady guys, slow and steady (seeing as I ain’t got @GilasTrading’s skills haha )

Tomorrow Journal. See you on the other end.

justshell · July 2, 2019, 1:40pm

I swear a lot of people tend to forget how important those candlestick patterns/formations are lol it’s helped my trading tremendously…bearish/bullish engulfing, morning/evening star, H&S, etc. It all has been around for yearsssss and it works lol you trade very similar to how I trade