Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat. April 18th.
I just finished up tallying a lot of numbers. So, yeah, it’s pretty late now. The sun is up. And I’m sure she’ll be waking up soon. But since this is all fresh for me now, I’ll just go ahead with my journaling, in here. And maybe I’ll just keep with the numbers today, you know, instead of the talking I’m known to do.
I don’t know.
We’ll see though.
Anyway. Let’s see. What kind of week did I have this week? Well, from what I just got done writing in my business journal, it was a good week. Actually, from the numbers standpoint, not so good. Negative. And I’ll put 'em up later. But I’m not upset about that. At all. This is exactly what I wrote down.
“REMEMBER - What’s the most important aspect of my trading?”
- BEING POSITIONED CORRECTLY
See, there’s a big difference between what my results turn out to be, to whether I followed correctly my trading plan. Any trader (a real trader) knows that following your plan just doesn’t always turn out positive numbers. You know, the weekly turn out. It’s the long term figures that matter most. We will have losing days, weeks…and in fact I’m sure, even months. It’s to be expected. And when I think about it, it’s just part of the game. It’s what I need to remember. And am.
But, what’s more important is whether I am following the plan. You know, the rules that I have laid out. The boundaries. Things that I can do, and the things that I can’t do. The consistent way that I should be trading. A.K.A. the strategy.
Well, this week, I came a little close to the edge. But didn’t go over it. And this is to be expected whenever I’m encountered with a switch of trends. Let me explain this in more detail. Here’s the hindsight view first.
This is how the entire month has turned out so far. Everybody knows. Whenever the trend switches back and forth, trading is tough! That needs to be said, right from the beginning. But, let’s just take a look at this week, for now.
The JPY is full blown in a bear trend. Actually, we can see, now, that on Friday the 10th was the top. I didn’t know that, coming in to the week. Their weak. And so, the week plays out. On Monday, they got stronger. Netted 308 pips, counter trended. All of my 7 JPY pairs (bear, going north), lost 308 pips. That’s fine. What can I do? And also the strength of their bear trend ends up losing ground, goes from 174 down to 125. Well, according to my plan, I do nothing. No actions to be taken. But, I need to note about the changing figure 4-3, from 5-2. That means the JPY is trending bear against 4 other currencies now, instead of 5 in the day before. Basically, this bear trend is weakening. The strongest trend will go from 7-0 (their trending against all other currencies), then to 6-1 (their trending against 6 other currencies and 1 counter trending). Then to 5-2 (their trending against only 5 other currencies and 2 counter trending). Then to 4-3 (their trending against only 4 other currencies and 3 counter trending).
Basically, I’m seeing some early indications of a changing trend, at this point. So then comes Tuesday. EOD. And the resulting trend strength goes down even more to a 93. With the pip result netting 60 pips to the positive, believe it or not.
Need to throw this table up again. Cause nothing is more important to my trading than following this.
But, I’m seeing the EOD stats, only. Well, what about during the day? What if it changes during the day, will I then change? The answer is yes. I finally made this change recently. I’m taking the guessing game out of the equation. I’ll show you how it happens. And in fact, how I did it this week.
All that number, in the middle, is nothing but the aggregate amount of pips between all 7 JPY pairs’ 5 & 9 ema prices. I’m simply adding them all up. Sure, this is all smoothed out prices, but they still are live and moving. Cause don’t forget, all moving average prices factor in what the current price is also. Which means that it’s alive and moving. All you have to do is watch the live ema prices and you’ll see them going back and forth in real time. That’s why I think it’s nonsense when people think that moving averages are lagging indicators. They are alive and kicking just as much as the most present price does. It’s simply smoothed out, that’s all.
Anyway. All I do is add them all up, in real time. It only takes like a minute. 7 pairs. The 5 & 9 lines’ differences. I document this as I do it. This is how it went down. Now, if you look above, the EOD figure was 93 BEAR. Then at …
- 5:37am = JPY 26 BEAR
- 6:21am = JPY 14 BEAR
- 7:01am = JPY 0 BEAR
And this is when I switched my JPY trades. I actually completed the switch at 7:07am that Wednesday morning. Why? Cause it went down to 0. THAT is my indicator that tells me when to switch. And all I do is exit out of all my 7 JPY bear trades (north) and then immediately enter all my 7 JPY bull trades (south). And, according to my rules, I go in with 2 sizes on each.
Here we go again.
The EOD results are what…4 BEAR trend still. It didn’t change! So now what? Did I make a mistake? Will this stay a bear trend? No. I just got in a little early. The pip count ended up being -498 pips. That’s counter trended. They did get strong that day. The reason why it’s a negative figure is because they are technically in a bear market. Positive pip results equals trended pips, and negative pip results equals counter trended pips.
My trading results was only slightly different, than the EOD results. -471. But, I just stuck it out and continued to monitor whether it would eventually turn. And of course it did. But look at the pip results. -112 pips on that Thursday, and Friday was -11 pips. Not all that good. Hey. It is what it is.
The only thing I really care about is whether I am positioned correctly. And it turns out that I was. The JPY market did eventually change trends. I don’t care about some negative pips here or there. I just know that in the long run, if I’m (my trades) are going in the correct direction (following my indicator) then it’ll work itself out. That, in a nutshell, is what makes me successful. It’s the best I can do. I believe in my system.
That’s nice.
How about we look at the market? And what’s it been looking like. Well, I’ll continue with the AUD. Since that’s who else I trade. Now they were much better. No changing of the trends took place. WHAT A SHOCKER…BUT, I’LL TAKE IT!
Interesting stuff here. They topped out their bull trend on Tuesday and came down from there. See their numbers in the middle? And then look at the daily pip results. Yeah, Wed, ended up the big losing day with -802 pips. That’s kind of a lot. But, it didn’t last. Actually, they netted a positive 267 pips for the week. And they are trending strong against every other currency, hence the 7-0 figure.
You can definitely see, on each pair on Wed, that it surely looks like the trend will change (the top 4 pairs). But no. The week turns out going back with the trend.
And see, this is what I want to say. Trust me, I’m saying this to myself. But, you know what? I really don’t know what’s gonna happen. Man, last weekend, I thought for sure the AUD was gonna turn negative. I kept thinking I should be prepared for some major losses. Honestly. There’s nothing going on in the world today that justifies risk-on to keep on going. It doesn’t make sense, whatsoever (and btw…I still think this way moving forward).
And to boot, why is there indication that the JPY is getting stronger? I mean, their trend has changed to bull now. What explains that? Therefore, what explains why both of these currencies to be getting stronger? Or should I say in more demand? If you ask me, it’s irrational. The market is acting quite irrational. Who knows…maybe next week we’ll see a double top on a lot of those pairs up there, and they finally come back down (weak AUD).
I just don’t know. That’s why I simply follow my plan, and I know I’ll be successful. Well, I surely was with the AUD this week. My AUD bull trades are showing it on that chart. And, whenever they want to switch trends, then I’ll go with it. But not until I see it first. Right? Just like I do with the JPY.
Alright. Let’s see what the other currencies are doing. I’ll be doing this my way. My trend determination way. And let’s keep with the month of April. And…let’s go from the strongest down to the weakest. But since the AUD is the top, we’ll continue on with the next one down.
The GBP.
Their 6-1. You can see on the chart how the AUD is that only one currency that is trending counter trend to the GBP (it’s the 5 & 9 lines that determine that).
Next up, the JPY.
My trades are shown on a different set up (mt4). Anyway. The JPY is 5-2. The 2 trending counter to them is the one’s above (AUD, GBP), right?
Next up, the NZD. 3-4
They got strong lately, along with their brother AUD, but then turned back to bear trend this past week.
Next up, the CAD. 4-3
Next up, the CHF. 5-2
They’ve been stuck in a bear market this month, but if you look at their numbers, their actually getting a little stronger. But, their only trending strong against the USD and the EUR. It’s hard to say where their going. That’s why it’s just best to say what is, and leave it there. Their in a bear trend. That’s it!
Next up, the USD. 6-1
What can we say here? The USD is weak. That’s all. Right? Been weak.
I’m talking aggregately here. You could have tunnel vision and just look at the EUR/USD pair. Someone could easily say that the USD is not weak at all. It printed a lower swing high. That’s considered bullish, right? But, again, you can’t be so short sighted. You must see what’s going on everywhere. And against everybody. That’s the only way to correctly put things into the proper perspective. Therefore, when I see the 6-1 figure, that’s saying their trending bear against 6 other currencies, and one bull (EUR). Plus the fact of pretty much the whole month of April they’ve been in this bear market, technically speaking. So, you just need to see these other things also. That’s all.
Next up, the EUR 7-0
Now their 5 & 9 ema lines are easy to distinguish, and tell in which trend their in. If the 5 (yellow) is below the 9 (green), well then it’s in a bear market. And we have all of the 7 pairs that way.
Well, I should have put this next chart at the top, but, better late than never.
Well, for the latest, what do we have? Well, aggregately speaking, there are only 3 currencies that are trending in a bull market. The average, for everyone, is for 4 of them bull and 4 of them bear. So, the market is tilted a good bit. This is just a dynamic of the market. However it wants to split it, is the way it goes. Let’s see. Anything else I can tell you about what that chart is saying? Well, if you pay attention to any one currency, you can see some kind of tracking that it will do. Let’s look at the JPY, since I am watching this one closely. Where’s it coming from? This month, it got pretty weak (lowest it went was 5-2 bear), bottomed out, and has been climbing ever since. Broke to the bull market (green) 2 days ago. And there you have it. That’s another reason why I kind of think it’s heading upwards. We’re just gonna have to wait and see what happens. And what about the AUD? Man! They’ve been rocking it. Been at the top for some time now, this month. Well, for as long as I’ve been tracking these currencies. I’ll tell you one thing. These 2 currencies (the AUD, and the JPY) won’t be hanging out too close to one another for long. I’m telling you. It just doesn’t happen. I think something’s gonna break. Like the AUD to come on down, and join their brother the NZD. I mean look, they both were together in the green. But got separated lately. Yeah, this past week. Anyway.
Journal, I’m sure you remember my thread the Complete Currency Dynamics.
Well, all that I’m saying in here actually has it’s roots in that ideology. Cause that’s how I see the market. I won’t be short sighted just by looking at one particular currency pair only. Man. I just can’t.
So. What do you say we bring some of those line ups that I used to do, in that thread. You honestly thought I stopped doing that? I will never stop doing what I do.
Alright. Let me put all things into it’s proper perspective. First, we look at the big picture. What’s it look like since the beginning of the year?
Those are running daily totals from the years start. Well, this is what we can say. The USD is the most bought currency (a.k.a. strongest) in 2020. Up 34.10% against every other currency. And the Swiss is a close second, 32.28%. And so forth. The Comms are low, but you can see how the AUD is climbing, right? I mean, just look at the %'s. They were at -40.98%, against every other currency, back at the start of this month. And now…sitting at -7.56%. Yeah. Big moves they had, lately.
Well, that will be reflected when we zoom more in and look at the quarterly. And since we just started a new quarter, it’ll look exactly the same as my monthly running chart. Right?
Well, I threw in (no charge) an extra table for ya. That bottom table is the individual, all-by-itself, daily results. The top table is the monthly running table. Therefore, for the latest, we can see that the AUD, for this month only, is up 31.80% against every other currency. Clearly the strongest, compared to all of the other currencies. By far! And well, I can throw out to you so much info regarding all what I have here shown. Like for instance, the biggest one day gain this month was the AUD back on April 6th. 12.43%! Man…that is a lot. And I think that set the stage for the rest of the month, so far anyway.
I don’t think you want me to go back to the month of March. You would see some unbelievable numbers. Coming from the JPY. They would put to shame the AUD.
Dare me?
Alright.
Stand back.
Check this out.
What we got? The biggest one day gain? Was back on Mar 9th. The JPY had a one day gain of 21.03%. Now that’s saying something! And what about the largest move, period? On Mar 13th, the JPY dropped -22.41%. Now that was probably a record one day biggest move, in a very long time I bet.
So, all I’m saying here is this. You have to put all things into it’s proper perspective. Yeah. Last month, was volatile. Some big moves.
Well, well, well. Take a look at who takes the month in total. The EUR does! They were the most bought currency for the month of Mar. Not by a runaway though. And you see. That’s another dynamic. It was slow and steady wins the race, for the EUR. They didn’t break any kind of records that month. In fact, their biggest one day gain was 7.03% gain in the first day of the month. What’s that? But it was throughout the entire 22 days of trading that you have to account for. And that’s the reason why I like to keep track of the running totals. It’s a perspective. They were the most bought currency. Just add them all up.
Anyway. I can go on and on about all my data, there. You just have to know what questions to ask, to get some good answers. In any case, thanks for letting me throw out there some of my complete currency dynamics. This is what I do every day. Interesting stuff.
Well, thanks for listening, Journal. I think I over stayed my welcome. Sorry that’s it’s a lot. This post has been done over hours and hours today, due to the many breaks I’ve taken.
If I find any more interesting stuff, I’ll come back.
But thanks Journal.
Mike
P.S. —Almost forgot.
Documentation purposes.
AUD account - 2nd full week results
- +1.22%
JPY account - 2nd full week results
- -10.74%
TOTAL - for 2nd week
- -9.52%
MONTH RUNNING
- AUD - 1st week (+2.72%) & 2nd week (+1.22%) = +3.94%
- JPY - 1st week (+2.01%) & 2nd week (-10.74%) = -8.73%
- TOTAL MONTH RUNNING = -4.79%
AUD account balance. Month started out with $30k. Net asset value is what’s the latest running account balance.
JPY account balance. Month started out with $22,296.00 The equity balance is what’s the latest running account balance.