Ok Mike, how did we do this week?
This was my first week on a live account. And the start of my 2 yr journey.
I have goals in mind. I have trading plans in place. And to be specific, I have 2 strategies. One strategy is called my #2 strategy. This is my long term trade. I plan on having this trade run for the entire year.
To remind myself, this is how I trade. I trade the Majors vs. Comms. I call this one trade. It consists of 15 trades. It is a group of trades. To be more specific, it is the USD against the AUD, NZD, CAD. The EUR against the AUD, NZD, CAD. GBP against AUD,NZD,CAD. CHF against the AUD,NZD,CAD. JPY against the AUD,NZD,CAD. That’s 15 trades. That would be the Majors over the Comms. And if I wanted the opposite, it’s the same 15, but going the other way. This, in my opinion, is the most reliable edge I can find in the market. So, I concentrate on tracking, documenting, data overload in regards to M/C relationship. I predominantly use one chart to determine who I should be in with, on the strat #2. I have built it myself. I have gone back in time and plotted the daily pip count between the Majors vs the Comms. That’s 5 currencies pitted against 3. So, I have a birds eye view of the trend that’s presently in place. And I have found that the trend in place usually lasts a relatively good long time. Last year there was 4 different trends.
The Majors trended 2 times, the Comms 2 times. I will post up my chart sometime.
So, this year I started off with the Comms over the Majors. Now, Mike, I knew we were going to have a rocky rough start. And I am so not bent out of shape about it. Remember we determined that it’s just gonna have to take some time to see if the trend will continue, or change. So, as was planned, we went in with the Comms. Why? Because according to the plan, they are PRESENTLY trending over the Majors. And my plan as stated is this…whoever is trending, I’m in with them. At the open, I got in. And this is the one trade that will continuously be running all year long. Sure, it could (and probably will a few times) change, but it will be my insurance policy. Because of the nature of long term trends, there should be only positive numbers, over months’ time. And I do understand the fact of when there is a trend change taking place, that means there’s gonna be some losing going on. And that brings me up to date. Cause we (and everyone else) knows how the year started out. It has been nothing but the Majors dominating over the Comms. Like big time.
I remember seeing it every since the open. But, I am not ashamed. I stuck to the plan. I just was not going to jump out until a certain point. I waited till Wed, (when my chart showed the first concrete evidence that the Majors changed the trend), to change. Well, yep, Mike, we lost a good bit. I kept watching the beating take place. But, I am proud of the fact that I kept my cool. Psychologically speaking, I am [B]really[/B] proud of myself. I guess that’s the difference between inexperience and experience. Immature and mature about the market. Smart and not so smart. OK Mike, let’s keep it all into perspective. Yeah, I remember feeling many natural emotions, getting so bent out of shape, along the way. But, now, I realize I have changed. That is all. But, I need to be smart. I did not take any action just because I was losing. I acted out of the plan. Price showed me when there was a change. And that’s the reason why I wait for the daily closings, to be more sure of where price wants to go.
Bottom line with the strategy #2 looks like this. It’s embarrassing, but is truth.
Pips = -4570.9
$ = -361.18
% = -27.7%
But, then we changed over to the Majors. (Wed) Cause their now trending over the Comms. Where do we stand now?
Pips = +2210.6
$ = +176.8
% = 13.6%
Now this week we did wait to get in with the # 1 strategy. Which is M vs C again. 15 trades = 1 trade.
Same thing as above, with the only difference being is a shorter time span. It’s on a weekly basis. I am watching for any opportunities. Simple as that. As I see the daily numbers, and the many stats I collect, along with fundamental news events, I will get in. My one rule is to at least be in for a day, well, to the end of the NY session anyway. Cause maybe if I see Asia going in a direction, I will get in when London opens. But, must stay in till NY has their turn. And all along I have my goals in mind. See Mike, we are not in the market to beat it. Not in it to make the most it will have to give us. Nope. We don’t care how much money is to be possibly made in the market. If that’s the case, then I should be pretty upset about how this week went. Because there was sooooo much money I could have won, if went with the Majors all week. (would of, could of, should of) I’m not playing that (psychological) game. SO WHAT!!! It’s just what happened. But, on the contrary, I am very happy to what I did this week. I went in with the Majors over the Comms.
All I’m concerned about is being consistent. Reaching my goals, BTW which is very respectable and within reach.
Wednesday from the start of London to the end of the day (NY close) was my trade.
Pips = +480.3
$ = +$37.39
% = +2.8%
I do see a problem. Or at least what I need to work on. I jumped. Early. I kind of thought I would see a retracement of some kind from the Comms. But, I made a bit more than my weekly quota. Which is 315 pips. So, I weighed it out, and the cautious side of me won out. Of course, when I look back and see what happened, I did miss out on a whole bunch of pips. But again, I just am not going to care about what could of happened. That is just pointless. We move on. That’s it.
So, the bottom line for my account looks like this.
Account balance = $1,138.72 (Beginning balance was $1,300.) (My 1k, plus the 30% from the broker)
To be honest with myself, I am very, very excited and pleased with the way things are right now.
Why? Because I feel very confident with my strategies. I’m finally on track with the trend. (And I just knew the beginning of the year was gonna be ugly) That long term trade should definitely take up any slack that I might encounter with the shorter term one.
And I know that I am beyond trading with emotions. It’s better to trade with logical reasons behind it. Also following a predetermined plan in place helps tremendously.
I feel I am off to a good start. As long as I let the market show me what it’s up to, then act, I will be ok. Rather than taking a guess at what I think the market should do. I know I can get into trouble that way.
I want to guard myself against mistakes like that.
That’s a good part of the reason why I am journaling my journey here. To watch myself progress.
OK Mike…be smart.