My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

[MikeWolski]

Hi everyone.
I’m finally gonna get my own thread going. This thread is gonna track my progression in my business venture.
So, this will be a personal outlet for me. I’ve been wanting to do this for quite some time now. I do feel it is important to have a place to journalize your thoughts, experiences, lessons etc…And what a great place to do it here in BabyPips, where we all come together. And also this is very important to me because I really just do not have any other outlet. I simply do not have anyone to talk to, in depth, about the market. People who know me already have heard so much that their attention span, for me, now, has gone down to nothing, if I wanted to converse about what I’m interested in. I don’t understand…I always try to give people my full attention to what they want to talk about. I’m a listener. But, true listeners are hard to find.
So, this will be a good place for me. Also I think this would be a nice place for you new ones, who try to glean off of the older ones. I think I might be in the middle group. I’ve been on my journey for exactly 3 yrs now. I absolutely new that this was the rest of my life back at the end of 2012. Between Christmas and New Years. I remember finding out then that it was possible to trade on-line. See, I’m a bit old. The '80’s was my era. I remember when me and my 3 younger brothers ('82-'83 in my high school years) used to play the game ‘Make or Break’. It was a stock market game. We absolutely loved playing that. Buying low, Selling high, cards, moving pieces across the board. Then we found other similar games. And then we went as far as making our own stock market game. 2 decks of cards. A big piece of ply board. Magic marker, drawing out a snake like path for the pieces to follow on. The individual pieces represented things like ‘texaco’, ‘gold’, ‘oil’, etc… Wow. I’m sorry. What good memories! But hey,…this is my thread. I guess I can go on tangents like that. Ok. Awesome. Well, let me get back on track here. Oh yeah, well, I hope this can be also a place for you bigger brothers out there to pop in and correct me if you see something not right. If there’s anything to be learned about oneself, on your journey in the market, it’s to be objective. Cannot be stubborn. We just cannot be above reproach. We all have to be teachable. So, I am here to be given a talking to, if need be also.
When I think about it. This thread is the very beginning of my career. I want to be able to look back and see where I came from. The rest of my life has been laid out before me. Because I want nothing more than to be successful at this business. And I’m going to use this journal as my home. (I need to talk to somebody! Even to myself!)
Now, I’ll tell you why I think this is the real start.
I’ve gone live.

To be continued…

[eddieb]

Good luck with your thread, Mike. Looking forward to reading it.

[MikeWolski]

I’ve been demoing for 3 yrs now. I know, crazy huh. Believe me, I’ve seen just about every single post that has to do with “from demo to live”. There are pro’s and con’s to the whole subject. And I completely understand the reason why many, many of you older brothers (sisters) believe that it is important to go live, as opposed to staying on demo.
Sure. It’s such common sense. This is what we all know. And it goes like this.
We should start out on a demo account. Get used to the trading platform. Get to know how to trade. Practice a strategy. Journal our trades. Experience what it would be like if we were in the market for real. There won’t be any difference. Cause when we see the GBP go up, it will look exactly the same on demo as it will on a live account. OK. …No difference…Well, that’s the point. There [B]will[/B] be one big difference.
That difference is the psychological aspect of trading. That, in my opinion, and of what I have read, is the only difference. And if anyone has been learning this trade, I’m sure you have read by now of how much psychology plays a part in this game.
The psychological aspect of it comprises our emotions. How we feel when we are winning. How we feel when we are losing. We are humans. We [B]will[/B] feel emotions when we trade. Actually just like how we feel about anything in life. You know, I don’t like it when people come on here and say they have learned [B]not[/B] to feel anything about their trades. Sure we will! We are human! I know…we can convince ourselves and suppress emotions. Just simply denying how we feel. When good things happen to us in life, we feel good. Bad things happen, we feel …bad, disappointed in ourselves, depressed, inadequate, etc…
OK, back to the point. When we are in demo, we (deep inside) know it’s not our money. We start over. Try, try again. And all along, we are simply bypassing the most important aspect of trading. We are not learning anything in regards to how to deal with our emotions. And that’s why many say ‘go live, and only then will you take it seriously, and then learn how to trade’.
It is true. [B]Most[/B] people do not know how to trade seriously on demo. And for those of you who are honest with yourself, and if that’s the case, then yes, you must get in the market live. You must take it seriously. And we know you will when you have something to lose. Just start out with the little that you can lose.
I’m not in that camp. I remember when I first [B]saw[/B] the market, on demo. I just kept thinking…this just would be pointless to place trades without having any kind of plan. Strategy. Something to go by. If I was wrong, then why was that. Why gamble? Why operate blindly. It wouldn’t make sense to just give it a shot and hope for the best. So, I simply needed to work on figuring out how the market moves. What are the reasons for the movement.
And the journey began for me. It was all about finding a strategy. One that was for me. The way I see the market. Try it. Keep track.
But, see, I treated it as for real. I not only had one demo account going, but multiple ones. I always had one as my real account. And if I wanted to experiment on something, it would be on the other ones (practice). I treated my real account [B real[/B]. I don’t need to convince you all of that. I’ve had some real depressing moments. Bad sleeps at night. Bad days at work. Depressing time periods. All because I wasn’t seeing any progress. This all was pretty much the first 2 yrs for me. Then things start to click in your mind. For as many hours I put into my business (totally unbelievable) things do start to look brighter.
Oh, you know what I remember. I got to reading a couple books that tremendously helped me. And I thought to myself how thankful I was that I didn’t go live, until I read them. It really is a mind game.
Being in touch with oneself is key. Start asking yourself why do you do what you do. If you get to the bottom of that question, you definitely will be progressing.

Look, I have got to run now.
I have so much to say.
I will be back.

BTW…I’m in the market. Live. And it’s no different to me. I’m just doing what I’ve been doing for a while now. It really is all numbers. I’m just following the plan. Rules in place. See how it turns out.
I’ll expound on that stuff later.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hi again.
So, I have a little bit more time to talk. How about finishing the subject of demo - to live transition.
Well, it has always been my plan to go live only when I felt I was ready. And not before. Like…why lose money the hard way? I play it seriously. I remember my original plan. Only go live when I have proven results. Then transition to live, which should be nothing but a continuation of what works, (strategy, the plan as a whole). It’s kind of funny. I remember planning on going live last Jan. 2015. Then when that time came up, I was like …“no way!” I’m just not ready. I blew a couple accounts before that. (1K accounts) It just didn’t feel right. So I told myself in 6 months. Then Jun came. Nope. No way. I’m just not ready. I was getting close. Things were turning around for me. Generally speaking. But, I still had to resolve a good strategy. Then, I found, without a shadow of a doubt, how I want to trade. Then worked out the details on a particular strat. So, I’m up to date now. I felt like (especially after many threads condemming demo for any length of time) that I’m like a ripe piece of fruit. Any longer and it’s gonna get rotten. Plus, it’s a real bummer seeing good things happen, account growing, and realizing it’s not real money.
So, it’s just time now. I have the plans in place. Placed trades as soon as the market opened this year. Well, my one trade that I will have run for the entire year. I call it my insurance policy strategy. My strategy #1 is not begun yet. That won’t start until the right time.
But anyway, yeah, it was neat to see $1,300 of a balance. Very exciting. But after a couple days of waiting till the new year started, it really is the same as what I’ve been used to. Placed my block of trades at the open. Closed it up. And will just concentrate on what the year brings.
So, yeah, I don’t know, I guess I thought it would be different. But, honestly, it’s just back to business as usual for me.
It’s what I’ve been working on for such a long time. But, at least now I know I’m working on the next step on my journey. I’m in a different era now.

I’ve got to run. But, on my next post I will be laying out my journey. The steps, levels, as I see it.
It is the next 2 yrs.
And I’m extremely excited about it.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hi.

Ok, so this is the plan that I’ve had for myself for some time now. This is good for me to finally put it down on paper (my journal here). It’s about goals. I am all about having goals. It is a good thing, but I guess I should always watch out whether they are realistic and attainable or not. But at least I always have something to shoot for. Plus I should always be able to look back and see some kind of progress along the way.
I’ll start from big to small (macro to micro).

I want my own business. -------Have always, always, always wanted that for many years.
I want my own successful trading business. ------This is what I have found to be what I’ve been looking for in particular. I am a trader. This is what I’ve been born to do. I absolutely love every aspect of the business. (It’s such a shame to have figured it out so late in life…but at least I have).
My time line. -----This is how I hope it unravels. If not, then I hope I’m not gonna be too far off (time wise).

I am presently in the middle of a 5 yr plan.
The first 3 yrs have passed now. This is the development stage. I have been on demo the entire time. This has been the spring board for my next 2 yrs. Been working on a trading strategy within the scope of the entire trading plan. During this time I have been building my foundation. I have found the way I want to trade now. This is not the end all. Of course I plan on developing other strategies as time passes by. I even would like to trade many of the other financial instruments. I remember when I first started out on my journey I researched all of them. Equities, futures, options, commodities, and forex. And I have always thought that this market would be the best one to be in first. I mean, doesn’t it only make sense to see the big picture first (in regards to money), then move on in closer. Where is the money flowing. Now, as I see it, I think I was right in assuming that if you follow the currencies you will have some knowledge of where the money is going. It has to do with the intermarket relationships. Look, I have realized, even recently, that if the money is flowing into the ‘risk off’ scenario in the currency market, then you will see it develop in the equity markets. When there is buying of risky assets, it will travel into the other equity markets. I see that as having some kind of edge. …anyway…(trying to get back on track here)…This is where I need to start. The forex market. (Man, I love it so much I only hope to be able to break away and broaden my knowledge into the other ones)

I have just begun my next leg on the journey. The next 2 yrs. Look, this is my plan. And I only hope it will come true. I am aware that I just might be in dream land. I surely don’t know if it definitely will come true. But, I will give it my all. The next 2 yrs is my capital building stage. I need capital to start my business. And this is the way to do it. (Plus it’s good practice) (Plus it will be confirmation to me that I can do this) I’m not going to raise money, or solicit it. This is the way. I will get experience and confirmation all along the way. I have an outlined 2 yr money management plan. The plan is to reach $50k. Banked. Then at that time (Jan '18) I will quit my day job and begin my business full time. I have even outlined how I will operate my business. But that will be visited much more when the time comes. An over view would be like this. 3 accounts set up. It looks like a sandwich. 3 tier Trading account (on top), escroe account (I call it my business account), and checking account (on bottom). I will pay myself out of the business account. Always start each month with 50k in the trading account. And every month will keep the trading account at 50k. When I have losing months, then I must draw out of the business account, to pick it back up to the 50k number. If winning months, then I transfer the excess into the b. account. So, my whole entire goal would be to make the business account grow. Keeping the trading account at the 50 level, every month.

Sorry for going on a tangent like that. Man, I just cannot wait till that day comes. But, until then, I am concentrating on this leg.

Got to run.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Ok Mike, how did we do this week?
This was my first week on a live account. And the start of my 2 yr journey.
I have goals in mind. I have trading plans in place. And to be specific, I have 2 strategies. One strategy is called my #2 strategy. This is my long term trade. I plan on having this trade run for the entire year.
An overview…
To remind myself, this is how I trade. I trade the Majors vs. Comms. I call this one trade. It consists of 15 trades. It is a group of trades. To be more specific, it is the USD against the AUD, NZD, CAD. The EUR against the AUD, NZD, CAD. GBP against AUD,NZD,CAD. CHF against the AUD,NZD,CAD. JPY against the AUD,NZD,CAD. That’s 15 trades. That would be the Majors over the Comms. And if I wanted the opposite, it’s the same 15, but going the other way. This, in my opinion, is the most reliable edge I can find in the market. So, I concentrate on tracking, documenting, data overload in regards to M/C relationship. I predominantly use one chart to determine who I should be in with, on the strat #2. I have built it myself. I have gone back in time and plotted the daily pip count between the Majors vs the Comms. That’s 5 currencies pitted against 3. So, I have a birds eye view of the trend that’s presently in place. And I have found that the trend in place usually lasts a relatively good long time. Last year there was 4 different trends.
The Majors trended 2 times, the Comms 2 times. I will post up my chart sometime.
So, this year I started off with the Comms over the Majors. Now, Mike, I knew we were going to have a rocky rough start. And I am so not bent out of shape about it. Remember we determined that it’s just gonna have to take some time to see if the trend will continue, or change. So, as was planned, we went in with the Comms. Why? Because according to the plan, they are PRESENTLY trending over the Majors. And my plan as stated is this…whoever is trending, I’m in with them. At the open, I got in. And this is the one trade that will continuously be running all year long. Sure, it could (and probably will a few times) change, but it will be my insurance policy. Because of the nature of long term trends, there should be only positive numbers, over months’ time. And I do understand the fact of when there is a trend change taking place, that means there’s gonna be some losing going on. And that brings me up to date. Cause we (and everyone else) knows how the year started out. It has been nothing but the Majors dominating over the Comms. Like big time.
I remember seeing it every since the open. But, I am not ashamed. I stuck to the plan. I just was not going to jump out until a certain point. I waited till Wed, (when my chart showed the first concrete evidence that the Majors changed the trend), to change. Well, yep, Mike, we lost a good bit. I kept watching the beating take place. But, I am proud of the fact that I kept my cool. Psychologically speaking, I am [B]really[/B] proud of myself. I guess that’s the difference between inexperience and experience. Immature and mature about the market. Smart and not so smart. OK Mike, let’s keep it all into perspective. Yeah, I remember feeling many natural emotions, getting so bent out of shape, along the way. But, now, I realize I have changed. That is all. But, I need to be smart. I did not take any action just because I was losing. I acted out of the plan. Price showed me when there was a change. And that’s the reason why I wait for the daily closings, to be more sure of where price wants to go.
Bottom line with the strategy #2 looks like this. It’s embarrassing, but is truth.
Pips = -4570.9
$ = -361.18
% = -27.7%
But, then we changed over to the Majors. (Wed) Cause their now trending over the Comms. Where do we stand now?
Pips = +2210.6
$ = +176.8
% = 13.6%
Now this week we did wait to get in with the # 1 strategy. Which is M vs C again. 15 trades = 1 trade.
Same thing as above, with the only difference being is a shorter time span. It’s on a weekly basis. I am watching for any opportunities. Simple as that. As I see the daily numbers, and the many stats I collect, along with fundamental news events, I will get in. My one rule is to at least be in for a day, well, to the end of the NY session anyway. Cause maybe if I see Asia going in a direction, I will get in when London opens. But, must stay in till NY has their turn. And all along I have my goals in mind. See Mike, we are not in the market to beat it. Not in it to make the most it will have to give us. Nope. We don’t care how much money is to be possibly made in the market. If that’s the case, then I should be pretty upset about how this week went. Because there was sooooo much money I could have won, if went with the Majors all week. (would of, could of, should of) I’m not playing that (psychological) game. SO WHAT!!! It’s just what happened. But, on the contrary, I am very happy to what I did this week. I went in with the Majors over the Comms.
All I’m concerned about is being consistent. Reaching my goals, BTW which is very respectable and within reach.
Wednesday from the start of London to the end of the day (NY close) was my trade.
Pips = +480.3
$ = +$37.39
% = +2.8%
I do see a problem. Or at least what I need to work on. I jumped. Early. I kind of thought I would see a retracement of some kind from the Comms. But, I made a bit more than my weekly quota. Which is 315 pips. So, I weighed it out, and the cautious side of me won out. Of course, when I look back and see what happened, I did miss out on a whole bunch of pips. But again, I just am not going to care about what could of happened. That is just pointless. We move on. That’s it.

So, the bottom line for my account looks like this.
-12.41 %
Account balance = $1,138.72 (Beginning balance was $1,300.) (My 1k, plus the 30% from the broker)

To be honest with myself, I am very, very excited and pleased with the way things are right now.
Why? Because I feel very confident with my strategies. I’m finally on track with the trend. (And I just knew the beginning of the year was gonna be ugly) That long term trade should definitely take up any slack that I might encounter with the shorter term one.
And I know that I am beyond trading with emotions. It’s better to trade with logical reasons behind it. Also following a predetermined plan in place helps tremendously.

I feel I am off to a good start. As long as I let the market show me what it’s up to, then act, I will be ok. Rather than taking a guess at what I think the market should do. I know I can get into trouble that way.
I want to guard myself against mistakes like that.
That’s a good part of the reason why I am journaling my journey here. To watch myself progress.

OK Mike…be smart.

[MikeWolski]

My chart.
Majors positive is any line moving up.
Comms positive is any line moving down.
The first one is the chart as a whole.
The second one is the latest on the time line.
The third one is from the beginning of the year.

[MikeWolski]

What a ride it was this week. It surely was not looking good for me, before the week ended.
I’ll try to put a summary to my ride.
I waited till the Asia open on Tuesday to place my trade. Majors over the Comms. It looked like a running start was happening. But, as soon as I placed it, it just went south. I never seen the light of day on that.
I kept it open up until I woke up on Wednesday at London open, to my demise of having been down a total of -1425.2 pips. ( -9.0%) Ouch. Yep, it hurt. So, at that time I jumped out. You know, keep your losers to a minimum. I kept out of the market for the rest of the day, to see what was gonna happen. I thought there was gonna be just more of the Comm ruling. But, on the contrary, it was the opposite. That was probably exactly at the time the Majors took over. At the end of the day (Wed), after I totaled my daily numbers, that’s when I figured I should get in again. The week looked like this so far.
Comms took Monday ( +390 pips over Majors ) , the Comms took Tuesday also ( +267 pips ). Wed the total went to the Majors ( +1383). That’s all from open to close pips. Surely the amounts spike higher and lower during the days. See, I went from Tuesday’s open to Wednesday’s London start and lost over 1k worth of pips. Anyway…when I got back in with the Majors at the Asia open for Thursday, guess what…the Comms staged another come back. Geeeezzzzz…figures. Yeah, that had a lot to do with the great numbers from the AUD. But, I stuck it out. Thursday came and went. The Comms ended up taking the day with +814 pips over the Majors. I was not about to jump again. Look, I realized that if I would have just stayed in with the Majors THROUGH Wednesday, that would’ve put me up into the green. I jumped when I shouldn’t have, and then jumped back in when I shouldn’t have. So, that’s what I was thinking up to this point. I’m down again. So, I just kept in there. [B]Then[/B] Friday morning came, London open (3 am). I woke up to such a great surprise. My total pips were at around +700. What a relief. So, I kept my eye on it, as I finish up the daily numbers. Then I just get amazed at what’s happening. I haven’t seen so much buying going on!! I am aware that on Friday’s there’s profit taking going on, but this was crazy. It kept going on up. I watched my pip count just keep on climbing up, up, up. From 700,…to 800…to over 1,000…(I’m talking all in less than an hour) …1,300…1,400…then I’m checking on my records to see how much I lost earlier in the week, which was 1,425.2…so…I’m wondering when to jump…I’m checking on my pip goals, and find that I will be golden at about 1,700…and the pip count still keeps on climbing…yep, up over 1,700…and that’s when I jump. So, I cashed out at 1,740.0 pips on that ride.
And of course I kept my long term trade running. Which is the Majors over the Comms.
So, yes, I had 2 M over C trades running. But, I do have them separated, because one is long term, and the other is my shorter term trade.

OK, so my bottom line numbers is this.
Account balance = $1,281.55 ------basically back to break even on the year.
My pip count for the month is on track. That’s with my #1 strat. I’m actually a bit ahead of the curve. (And you know, that’s my real goal…to trade with cushion. And with as much cushion as possible) (cushion = pips over my met goals) (cushion also = less psychological demand)
My strat #2 is running very well. +4076.3 pips at present. Remember, I lost -2360.3 pips with the Comms at the start. And I will just keep that trade open (being Majors over the Comms) until I see the trend change (on my chart). I will put up that chart, for the present, in the next post.

[B]Lessons[/B] this week:
—Learn to be a little bit more patient. I was the second time, but not the first time.
—I’m in the era of the Majors. Therefore, I should not get too worried when there’s a correction happening with the Comms. Unless it’s taken with very much pips. Which this week there wasn’t!
—I need to see what the daily figures end up to be. Which is a clearer picture of the flow. I just cannot get too tied up with the intraday highs and lows levels. The end of day numbers should be my anchor points.

You know, this week, I seen my account balance drop to a low of around $860. area. I shouldn’t even speak of it here, in a forum that many traders might look at. I can just see many of you shaking your heads saying…“Mike…are you absolutely crazy!!” Why let your balance even have the chance to dip that low. Haven’t you ever heard of the notion not trading more than say 1 -2 % of your account balance?
…of course…
I guess I just trust the edge that I use. —Majors vs. Comms
And this is a ‘basket of trades’ trading style. It’s kind of difficult to manage 15 trades running at once. When the tides turn one way or the other, the extremes can be pretty large. Maybe I should put a limit on how far am I willing to see my account drop.

I should get smarter about that.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Here’s my current M vs C chart.
Yep. Trend has changed. Hopefully this will run for a good long time.
I need to eventually draw a blue line indicating the present trend.

This all has to do with my long term strat. Which will run the entire year. I have started out the year with the Comms (Tan dot at the open). Then I changed over to the Majors at the blue dot. That was the first time they officially turned the trend over.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Before the week gets moving here, I need to journalize my account.
How’d I do this week? Very well. I am pleased with myself with how I handled the one trade I took. Looking back on it (you know how it is with hindsight), I did good. That’s so much better than the other scenario (which always seems to be the case, which is …‘I should have done the opposite’)
So…I am waiting to see how the week unfolds. Am patient…Monday comes, goes, tally the figures, seen that the Comms took that day. That was no surprise. At this point, the Majors have just been putting a beating on the Majors lately. Even the stock markets all have reflected that. So, ok, I’m still waiting.
My thinking is this. Since the Majors have the upper hand (according to my chart) I am waiting for them to make the moves. Still being patient…Tuesday comes, and goes. See, my only real chance of doing anything in the market (putting on trades) is at the London open time, for a couple hrs. I then have to go to work. Then my only other possibility is at the end of the day (after work). That’s when I count up the daily numbers. And see what I should do trading wise. …So…it was Tuesday end of day…I was done with the numbers…and I kept seeing the Majors coming back. ( I won’t bore you with how I do that) This was the Asian open for Wednesday. I was getting a little bit amazed of what was happening. There was the turn around. So, I then jumped in. In with the Majors over the Comms. I mean, 2 days dominated by the Comms (ok, not by much, but it was slanted to them)… So, I go to bed. Wake up at the beginning of London. … and to a great surprise! I was up. And at that time, I very quickly looked at my numbers. (Like where am I standing with the pip count if I jump now…goals…) And it looked very good. So, I remember thinking to myself at that very moment. …Well, this could be the beginning of another beating for the Majors, like for the rest of the week…But, what about my benchmark goals for the week, month? And it hit me…you know…I am in this for the attainment of my goals. That’s it. Not to beat the market and take advantage of it. OK, …even as the saying goes…cut your losers short, and let your winners run. But, something hits home when I have accomplished some of my goals. I mean, it’s a special thing. It feels like I won. So…
that’s when I jumped on out. It was right at the London open. I cashed out with 997.2 pips. And that took me into the future. I’m looking very good. That was enough pips to make my Jan. goal. I was very excited.
It took me into the second week of Feb. actually. So, then, I’m coasting. I don’t even need to trade anymore for a while. Only if the opportunity presents itself.
Meanwhile, I have my long term trade running (strat #2). And that is with the Majors. Looking good…until…well…let’s say it’s a good thing I was up quite many pips already. Cause the rest of the week went with the Comms. We all know how it all ended. In fact, my daily numbers ALL pointed to the Comms. Everyday. That must mean that there was a comeback being staged at the Asia session Wed., but it just didn’t take. The Comms came back with a vengeance, sometime during London and US sessions.
Yeah, am glad that I jumped…but that took a real good hit on my long term trade. And on my account balance. But I am not perturbed. I keep telling myself that is long term.
So, I have to keep the two separate. And I do, but it makes it tough when I have only one balance. And it’s constantly moving. And it was moving on down. I am aware that I might be having a little bit much of a position sizing on that long term trade. … I keep thinking of that…
Anyway…I DID GOOD WITH MY SHORT TERM TRADE THIS WEEK. Cause looking back, that was just something to get in and get out in-between the whole Comm domination this week!!

Stats.
Equity balance = $1000.50
Strat #1 = +997.2 pips //// $74.67 (after commission) //// +5.7%
Pip count = Made my months goal. AND +532.3 pips extra. So, I’m on track up to the second week in Feb.

Strat # 2 = Running total = -354.5 pips. ////-3.8%

So, this is what I’m thinking.
I see the market tilting way so much over to the Comms. In fact, the pip count for the Comms over the Majors was 5,091. For the week ending. And as I will put it out there, the long term chart still shows the Majors still trending over the Comms. But, I think this (C over M) will be short lived. And I have numbers to show why I think that. So, I have it my mind to wait this week to see the Majors come back and take them out. …I mean…really…the CAD was the one front running the Comms this past week. Because of the oil rally. And the NZD has not been doing well what-so-ever. I just cannot think that the Comms are making a bonafied turn around. They all would have to be in it together. And that surely is not the case now.
This week should be very telling.
I’m thinking the Majors will come on back. Oil will stop going back up (either drop or range). Stock markets will retreat on any more sizeable increases. (Which by the way is correlated with the Comms)
The only time I will place another trade is if I see a change. Majors over Comms.
I don’t have to. But, I think there’s gonna be a pretty good turn around back over to the Majors. I would want to be in on that. Some good cushion will be beneficial. Cause come next month, my position sizing will be higher. And more cushion means more leeway if things go south with a higher size.
I will be looking for the same amount of pips each month.
I keep track of them, and am banking them.
Each month, if successful, I up the position size.
So, it’s all about pip management. While compounding my account, via position sizing.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Majors vs. Comms
That last high was on last Monday. So the entire week was slanted down, favoring the Comms.

Still Major domination.
I am not up much on Fibs, but where price is at now sure looks like a 50% retreat from the last swing high and low.

[MikeWolski]

Hi.

Well, the last week of the month has come and gone now. Where am I at? Let’s start from big to small.
Account wise ----- not good at all.
Psychologically wise ----better than expected, given the circumstances.
Educationally speaking —absolutely learning very much. About myself, the market, my strategies.

Account = $782.56 /// -60.2%
Strategy #1 — Monthly goal = +1260 pips. Acquired +1225.6 pips
Strategy #2 — Totaling -30.7%. Still open, at the present time.

Well, I got pretty beat up this week. And to explain it, I think it will be best to put up my chart to show how the market has developed.

It’s pretty self explanatory. You can see where I bought the Majors over the Comms. Blue dot. Anything higher is in the green, and lower is red. You can see also at the New Year open, I went in with the Comms over the Majors. And anything lower is in the green, (Comms + = any line going down). That’s where I started off on the wrong foot. Cause it just went higher. So, that’s all lost money from the tan dot up to the blue dot. Then I changed over the Majors…finally. Hey, I’m following rules. At least I can feel good about that. The trend. But, now, what does it look like? Well, the longer term trend is still with the Majors. We all know that the trend consists of higher swinghighs and higher swing lows. I finally drew out the trend line for the Majors’ current trend. And boy are we getting close to where there will be either a bounce on up, to continue it, or a breaking of it. And that would then constitute a continuation of the Comms’ previous trend. Just with a very huge correction.

So, that at least explains why my account looks like it does. And predominantly because of my strategy #2 runs.
Am I doing something wrong? Yeah, I think about that a lot. I know that I need to expect the fact that I will lose along the way. Especially given the fact that as trend followers there’s always pullbacks. Which means money lost. And I also have to keep remembering to keep the perspective. This is a long term strat. It’s not over. By a long shot. But, this is what’s going through my mind now.
As I have articulated it previously, I’m wondering if I just have too much position sizing on that strat.
It was supposed to be on the minimal side. I wanted there to be enough to make a difference, on the account balance, but not that much! I guess I am realizing that I need to spend more time figuring out all of the parameters of my strategy. Instead of just winging it and hope that my account won’t drop too far.
Ok…let’s start. I’m gonna try to come up with what I have at the present, on this.
I put on 1000 units on each of the 15 trades. That totals 15,00 units. $1.21 per 15 pips. That constitutes one trade for me.
So, when it’s on and running, I can expect…For every 1,260 pips = $100.00 , which equals 10% of my account. After looking at my weekly ending numbers, this is how my strat #2 looked like after each of the first 4 weeks. Week #1 = -14.1% ///Week #2 = +24.8% , but totaled out = +10.7% (wk 1 - wk 2) ///////
Week #3 = -3.8% , totaled out = -17.9% /// Week #4 = -16.6% , totaled out = -30.7% ///
So, bottom line is this long term strategy of mine has produced, up to date, -30.7% of my account.
That’s -$399.10 . …That’s a lot. OK…that’s too much. And I am seriously considering knocking that position size down by half, on each of the 15. That will look like this. 500 units on each = 7,500 units.

Well, I must run now. Plus I have a lot of figuring out to do.
I do have much to say, and get down on paper here.
I am not done…with this weekly post…and with my journey…cause this is gonna be fun to look at down the road.

Mike

[WinPsych]

Hey Mike!

I have been reading your journal and am enjoying it very much.

As you mentioned, you traded a demo account for a long time. Here is something to for you to ponder

If you were trading your long term strategy on demo now instead of on a $1k account… would you have the same questions or thoughts about it that you have mentioned in your last post?

Secondly, oh yes its a 2 parter If you were trading a $100k account instead of $1k account, what do you think your thoughts, feelings and actions would be using the same percentages?

Hope you have a great week!

[BBalazs]

Hi Mike!

Just wanted to stop by and tell you that I enjoy reading the thread, keep it up!

[MikeWolski]

Hi.
Alright! I have visitors!
Thanks guys.
I do have so much more to jot down in here. But I just haven’t had the time!
I only have a couple minutes now. But, WinPsych, …I definitely have to address your points. And it looks like I need to spell out, to the T exactly what my goals, plans are. And I will.
The long term strat was recently developed, within the last couple months. So, it was not long term tested. But, that leads me to the point that I need to address. Which is how do I reconsile both strategies on just one account.
I am going to do that…as soon as I can!

Thanks guys.
Much, much more to come.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hi.
Ok, I got some time. So here we go.
I found myself in a predicament. But first. I know I have definitely found my place in the market. The way I see it, study it, keep track of it. It’s my edge in the market. And I will continue to exploit it as more time passes. This is the Majors vs. the Comms. It’s looking at the market from the big picture. And I know this will eventually help me be able to connect this market to the others. Everything is correlated to some extent. It’s the money flows. And there’s nothing more fascinating in the world to me than that.
Now in regards to my trading plan, I thought I had a good idea. It’s the long term trade. Ok, so now I know that I just have too much sizing on that. I wanted a more sure way of guaranteeing my account to grow. As we all know, the farther out you look at trends, the more reliable and definite they are. But, I guess because of my confidence in that fact, I put on a little bit too much on it. So, this past month I seen that I did very well trading my strategy #1. At one point I was up as much as about 900 pips over my monthly goal. That took me well into Feb. I absolutely did not have a problem staying out of the market, and just to watch all what happens. You know, just to be able to lurk and wait patiently to when an opportunity would strike. And then to get in. But, on the contrary, I found myself dealing with the #2 strat problem (long term play) . Having see my account drop very much, I knew I had to do something about it. And the way I did was by using my #1 to compensate for that. And that started to get me off track on that one, because my primary purpose of that is to accumulate pips on a monthly basis. I’m managing pips. I feel that if I can focus on making a specific (set) amount of pips every month, I will be golden. (I’m laying out my #1 strat background, purpose, details). And due to the confidence I have in my strategy (edge), I feel that my goals are very reachable. I’m definitely not done with fine tuning it also. So, therefore, this is the specifics of my #1. (I’ll get back to the #2 problem shortly)
All I’m concerned with is making 1,260 pips a month. Each and every month. Month after month. If I get more, then I bank them. That means I keep track of how many I accrue. I always have in mind the next month. That will mean I will be working on the ‘cushion’. More will equal less stress. But, I have broken the month down into the four weeks. I don’t have it in stone to go after the 315 per week, but it’s kind of like having a benchmark. I put more emphasis on the monthly count. Weekly, not so much…but kind of. So, when I encounter a surplus, I’m putting them on next’s month count. That will relieve that pressure. And hey, if the market gives me the opportunity, I will take it. But I won’t be looking to making as many pips as possible.
That’s the scenario for a surplus. Now what about a deficit? If I’m dropping, then I will have to jump. Because I know I will be recording what I lose. And do you think I’m gonna be wanting to chalk up a whole bunch of minus’s? No. I think that the fact of me having to document where I’m at with the count will keep me from watching the account balance, and fighting it. You know, revenge trading, recoup and recovery.
I figure if I manage pips, my account will reflect it.
Now, this is where it gets good. All I’m doing is concentrating on the goal. Pip count for each month. But, every month that passes, and if I’m successful, I will be putting on a higher position size. It’s the compounding affect. I will not be doing anything different, but my account should reflect it. And if I do not make the goal, then I cannot go on to the next level. I will stay on that particular level until I can move on.
Anyway, we have to see how my strategy is condusive to these goals. My one trade consists of 15 trades.
Now when each of those trades go up 1 pip, that’s 15. If they all go up just 10 pips, that equates to 150 pips. Because of the edge that I use, many of those 15 run together. Believe me, it’s like a running of the horses. I have seen it many many times, hundreds of pips accumulating, …or falling away from me.
So, when I therefore have a weekly benchmark of 315 pips a week…that’s absolutely nothing. I keep track of the Major/Comm pip count per day (week, month, year also). So, I have an idea of what the market comes up with on a daily basis. Bottom line, my goals are very doable.

Running out of time here.
I wanted to tell about how this week is progressing. No time though now.
Things are turning around for me, big time. (good thing)
Will address this sometime soon.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Ok, so I got too much on the #2 strat. Seeing my account drop so far made me use the #1. I then realized that the purpose of #1 was for something else, not what it was intended for. I’m looking at the account rather than my original plans. So, now, I got to thinking (firstly) was just to knock down the sizing. Ok, but then I got to thinking maybe I should just get rid of it altogether. Cause I feel very very confident of the way I handled my goal reaching #1. So why not just stay with that? …Well…I like very much seeing that chart. I mean, the long term strategy just cannot go wrong. Unless all the market wants to do is range back and forth, which seems to be the case lately. Then I lose. Well, it sure didn’t do that last year. I would’ve tripled my account on that #2 way alone. But, I guess I can’t think the market will always operate in the same manner year after year.
So…here I am. This is what I did. See, last weekend I was thinking that the market just must go in the way of the Majors. I mean, I really thought it was time for them. Well, …that just did not happen. It was Comms all the way. And I lost. So, this weekend, I’m thinking that it’s time for the Majors. I am off one week. (That has happened many many times in the past. Being right about the flow of the market, but only one week off) So, my plan, wait till market open. Watch the flow. If it goes Major, I’m in. Now, my original thought was to change my #2 sizing down by half. That would mean if I’m right, then it will take so much longer to catch up on the account. Well, then I thought, I won’t change it until I get back up to break even.
So, what happened? It was Major domination market open, for the first couple hrs. Btw…I’m already in with the #2. That’s still running. I didn’t change anything. I got in with the #1. Same sizing. So, I’ve been running with 2k’s on each. And sure enough, my account is on the up. Let’s see. Right now, just about approaching the US session on Tuesday, I’m back up to 1,000. That’s over $200 increase since the market open.
This is my present plan. I want to jump on out of everything, sometime this week. As long as I’m over $1,000. I will wait till the end of the US session today. See how it looks, and probably get out. I think I’m gonna just play with the #1 strategy, only. And this month, I will be on the next level. So, I will wait for the opportunities to get in, like I have been doing. I will start the count over. It’s still the beginning of the month.
So, that’s what I’m thinking.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Well, what a week it has been. I did very well. I have basically come on out of a hole.
I went through some changes. And the transition was very interesting. I’ll back it up and summarize how I went through it all this week.
So, my thinking was this. Since I was definitely wrong about the previous’ week flow, I thought for sure this week was gonna be the week for the Majors. And as it was standing, my account was pretty low for the start of the week. (Meaning low in regards to my goals) Also I have determined that I’m gonna do away with the long term strategy. But, over the weekend I was still in those trades. (M over C) I wanted to get out. So…how was I gonna transition on out of that when I had a great feeling that the Majors was going to take over this week? I had this plan. Watch carefully what happens at the open, (sun night). If it looked like the Majors were gonna do it, then I would ride it out for awhile and recoup. So, it only took about an hour into the open that I knew that was the case. And not only did I keep those running, I went in with my shorter term strategy also. So, bottom line, I was in with the Majors over the Comms with a total of 2k units on each. (1k on the #1 strat, 1k on the #2 strat) …And it ran… I was making the pips… I stayed in, through Monday…Even through Tuesday…Then it hit me…‘I need to get out and take these profits’. Cause come Wednesday things normally change. So, that’s what I did. At the Asia open, I jumped out. Totally. And this was the first time I had not been in the market this year so far. I ended up bringing my account balance from the low of $782.56 to $1,064.00 . So, I was happy to be above water, for the most part. And guess what…the market then turned, at that time. I just could not believe I jumped out at the right time. I stayed out. And if you remember, that’s when the USD started to dive. And boy did it go down. You should see what kind of levels, rankings etc…it broke. I mean, if there’s anything I do, it’s documenting the daily numbers. (I just need to know what has happened on a daily basis). (Been consistent with the numbers for over a couple yrs now). Wednesday and Thursday’s USD figures hit rock bottom. It simply was a pile on for the USD. Every currency just pummeled the Dollar those 2 days. So, I was out. I figured I would stay out for awhile. I kept thinking, the only way I would get in would be if something would change with the USD. Cause they could easily take back very much. And guess what…we had NFP Friday upon us. …Ah…here’s an opportunity. If there’s any catalyst that could do it, it was this. So, it’s Friday. I’m at work. (In an Audi garage) .Was a bit busy around the time of the news event. But, able to check the charts on my tablet from time to time. I seen it must have been good news cause the AUD/USD spiked but dropped. So, I kept thinking ‘maybe I should get in’. I wasn’t really planning on it, but maybe this is THE opportunity to take advantage of. I never made any trades off my tablet before. Kind of don’t know how exactly either. But, then I had a break about an hour after the news came out. I checked the AUD. They were crashing. I checked the NZD, they were too. (btw, the NZD has been really strong lately, kind of scary for the Majors) Then seen the JPY was tearing it up also (strong), along with the USD. So, at that time, I knew I had to get in. I mean, I am gonna regret this if I don’t. I just know it. So, I was able to figure out how to place trades fairly quickly on my tablet. It took a little bit of time to get all 15 on. I actually messed up a little. I did put on 15, but a couple of them were doubles.
It’s ok though. So…as the day progressed I kept checking on my account balance. And all it was doing was moving on up. I kept thinking of whether I should take profit at any time. I would check it a couple times within each hour. But the whole time I kept thinking that the Majors were gonna dominate this entire day.
And that was the case, as it played out. My account balance just continued to rise on up. Talk about a relief. What a good day it was!
Well, one thing that I did develop this week was another excel spread sheet (my 8th sheet) . This one documents my account balance goals and progress. I’ll put it up and it will be much easier for me to see my how my account progresses. The first month was pretty ugly. The numbers are skewed. It’s because of having 2 strategies. Plus I used one of them for the purpose of the other. But, from the second week of Feb. and on will be nothing but my one strategy. And all I will be doing is shooting for my goals. Managing the pips for the purpose of meeting my monthly $ amount goals.
The bottom row is my ultimate goal. I have all that down on paper. This is my 2 yr plan. This is what I am shooting for. If I will just meet these numbers, this will mean I will become successful. And that will mean in 2 yrs I will leave my present employment. I will then begin my own business. So, these next 2 yrs are the capital building stage.
There is nothing I want more in life, than this to come true.

Mike

[eddieb]

Great posts Mike, so much detailed explanation

[MikeWolski]

Week 6, in the books.
In summary…not good, account wise. But, a lot of good has come out of this week. I have realized a whole lot. I guess I had to hit bottom before I can really learn something. And I believe I have. So, this is gonna be good to get down on paper, cause I plan on coming on out of it. Let’s look at the damage.

Well, I had a down and up…then down, and down some more, kind of a week. There’s no sense is telling the exact story. I will need to get out in the open what I have failed in, and what’s the correction.
I need to be patient.
I have realized how much the psychological aspect really is important. Especially in the way I trade, which is discretionary trading.
So, I have realized a big fact about myself. I have an itchy finger. I want to trade. This goes deep. I have learned to wait for Monday to come and go, but, come Tuesday sometime, I just want to get in. Surely before Wednesday. And there was a time this week when I thought to myself…‘you know, I just would never wait to place my first trade anytime past Wednesday, let alone maybe just not trade at all in a week’. That tells me something. I am not patient. That is a psychological hindrance. I have said this before. "If you really get to the bottom of ‘why do you do what you do’, therein lies answers. So, for me, I know I just cannot wait to get in the market. If I see some little spike come late Monday, I’m in. When I think about it, this is not smart. First off, I’m not looking for any real indicator. Sure, I look at the M v C pip counter, but when there is some real volatility happening, that’s kind of useless. That’s exactly what happened this week, big time volatility. Swings big time one way to the other, and back again. So, I know I need to come up with some kind of indicator to let me know when I should get in. But also, there’s something else I thought of that will help me. See, being a discretionary trader I need to be in tune with the flow. That is important. I break down the market in the perspective of a week. I’m trying to see the flow within a weeks time. So, doesn’t it only make sense that I should wait longer to see how it is unfolding?
Why can I not wait until at least Wednesday or Thursday? Chances should be much greater of determining a flow for the market by then.
Ok, so there’s 2 issues I know I need to work on. An entry, and patience. I tell you, this week is gonna be a tough one. As I was compiling the weekly numbers, I kept seeing something. I mean, this is jumping out at me big time. I see a big change coming. I have taken notes after notes as I was processing the data. This is what I see coming. I see a turn. I see the Comms making a real comeback. Believe it or not, leading by the CAD. This is not my mind making this up, or wishful thinking. It just would make perfect sense if it happens. And after many other technical reasons, it hit me that China is coming back from break also! I therefore see many things coming together to produce a big turn. Which means the Comms domination over the Majors. JPY, CHF and EUR (which have moved together lately) to weaken much. GBP, USD, to continue on the descending slope. Also in regards to the world wide equities, I believe will bounce back from a completely bad week last week. For how long? Who knows. I just think it will happen this coming week.
So, let me reiterate what us traders already know. We just do not know what will happen, until it unfolds.
I cannot assume this is how it will play out. But, this is what would make the most sense to me.
This is all what has been going on in my mind as I summarized last weeks numbers. But, then it hit me about my psychological revelation that hit me this week. What if I’m right? What if I see the field lining up exactly that way come Sunday night (the open), then again when London starts rolling Monday morning.
What do I do? Do I just throw out the hard lesson I know I need to heed, obey? Or do I roll with the flow and make a good come back?
As I am writing all of this down, it makes it a lot easier for me to see my views objectively. And I am more determined now to be patient. There’s no reason to be hasty. I want to make a rule about when I should get in, or at least when is the earliest I can. Was thinking like Wednesday at the earliest, but then again, I don’t want to box anything up also. Cause when the market is showing opportunity, I should be in then.
I guess I will have to journalize, in truth, my reasons. (Btw…I did start journalizing in ‘One Note’)
I will aim to find the balance between knowing what the market is telling me, and monitoring my emotions. I think the goal would be to in touch with the market as opposed to my emotions. I really should journalize these two opposing forces.

Well, that’s what is going on with me.
Oh, and one more thing.
Honestly, I am not down…depressed…upset…mad… or even bent out of shape about my account balance. Well, honestly, this week I did go through some emotions, but have dealt with that inside. I have come on out with a healthy view of what to watch for. Hitting bottom does things to you. I call it ‘live and learn’. That has actually been a motto of mine for many years of my life.

My account will come back. And it is gonna be good to look back on these lessons.

Without fail, I will reach my goals.

Mike