My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

Hi journal.
I just want to pop in here and document what is happening, with me and the market.
It’s Monday morning, London has been kicked off for a couple hours now, and I’ve been watching the market move…just like I thought it would. Comms (all of them) on the up. Majors all down. Normally I would’ve gotten into a trade (my basket of 15) at the start of London. But, I …did…not… I came close. But, nope. I am disciplining myself to wait. I just need to practice waiting and watching the market unfold.
I would’ve been up many pips by now.
It won’t feel good to see the Comms take the entire week by a lot, if that’s gonna be the case. But, I need to remember, that there’s a better chance later on in the week. Probability.

I am going to learn to be patient.

Determination to principles over Emotions.

Mike

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Hey Mike,

Hope all is well.

Have just read your post and have picked up on a recurring theme. Re-read some your earliest posts and what your overall goals are. If this is to be your business you have to think commercially. Are your percentage swings commercially viable short term let alone long term? It’s not a criticism but something you have to genuinely explore.

In my opinion, the reasons for these swings are written all over your journal, again re-read your posts it can be sooooo helpful. Currently you are concentrating almost exclusively on gain instead of risk.

As a business as you know it takes more than technical ability to be successful. It’s like a guy who runs a restaurant that is always packed with people but he goes broke because he is always giving his friends free food and wine:(

Keep working hard mike, it will pay off!

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Hey Win…

You know, I did re-read everything I wrote, today. I did. Much earlier in the day.
And you make a good point. That has occurred to me. In fact, I read that in a book recently and it did jump out to me. …Ok…I found it here. “The first rule in any kind of investing is to understand how much you stand to lose, rather than how much you stand to gain.” "Having a stringent trading process that fully accounts for risk is critical to a trader’s long-term success."
That did hit me pretty hard. I thought much about that Win. But, looks like a really do need to meditate on that as it applies to my goals.

Thanks for that.

Well, this is pretty unusual for me to get on here right before I go to bed. But I had to. I finished up the numbers. And I was right. All along. The Comms took this day by a lot. And it has urked me to no end. The counter keeps on climbing. …So…I had enough!!! I just cannot stay out of the market when I’m in tune with it. So, I got in. I have a feeling this entire week is gonna slant Comms.

Well, I just checked…been in the market only about a half hour and I’m up over 500 pips.
It’s got to be a good week!

Be in touch.

Mike

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Hi,
i’m reading a little bit on your thread, and don’t get me wrong man but…
You say that you got years and years of demo and writing all of that stuff with wisdom, something like a religion or a profecy or something. I can be wrong man, and probably what i’m going to say to you is just rubbish, but it seems to me that you are putting your efforts on a wrong direction: “oh i’m right” “oh what if i’m wrong” “What do I do? Do I just throw out the hard lesson I know I need to heed, obey? Or do I roll with the flow and make a good come back?”… i mean… take it easy man… trading is just a business as another, it’s all about trying to make money and all this bull**** drama is not going to make money for you (and i don’t want to be rude, i’m sorry if it seems so).
I can’t read on your pages a good trading plan with money management.
How much you are risking every trade?
What is the R:R ratio?
How many consequential losses you can bear?
This are the good questions to ask yourself, not the drama the wisdom or jesus christ or indiana jones, FFS.

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Hey Money…
Yep. You have a good point. I understand what your really saying. And that’s what I’m presently working on, thanks to WinPsych.
I did try…well, I wanted to get down exactly what the trading plan consists of. And maybe because I don’t have it, is why I really never did.
So, what I have come up with, like just this week so far, is to implement a risk control. As you have probably seen the new table I have up, I’m gonna add another row to the bottom. Sure I have the monthly goals set forth (top end), but I need the bottom end also. That would be how much I absolutely will not want my account to drop below. That’s a start.
Look, I do know I need some particulars of the strategy. Entries, exits, risks per trade, etc…But, you have to remember, my strategy is not determined by indicators. It’s discretionary. How can I put down when and why when I don’t look at indicators? I can answer those questions though.
That’s what I’m working on now. The paper work is being filled out as we speak.

Anyway, money…I hear you. And completely understand where your coming from.
Thanks.

Oh, btw , this is a journal don’t forget. So, I will continue to throw in my sentiments, thoughts, emotions, etc…the wishy washy stuff.

Mike

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I like the fact that you understand me,i wish you best of luck friend.
I’ll lurk your thread from time to time.

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Keep it coming Mike, its a good read and interesting to see the thought process behind it all

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Hi journal. Week 7 in the books now.
What kind of week have I had? It was good. Going through some changes. I think I might be settling down.
I remember last week at this time I was in the middle of learning a lesson. One of needing to be more patient, but at the same time seeing in the charts a real opportunity for something about to happen. And I remember opting for to be patient and wait for the week to unravel. So what happened? Well, Monday came and went and my thoughts about where the market was going to go surely came true. I was right. But it was killing me to just sit back and see it unfold. So, at the end of the day Monday, (Asia open Tues) I gave in. Went in with the Comms. But when I woke up (at London open) I was just about at break even. I then immediately jumped out. Truthfully my thoughts were that the Comms were gonna just take over the week. And when it didn’t happen, I did jump out and waited to see how it will unfold. Tuesday turned out to be a correction day, but come Wednesday, it went back over to the Comms. That’s when I did get in again with the Comms. I took in just over 1,700 pips. And got out. That was the extent of my trading for the week. Not bad. This is how the daily tally (pips) looked like for the week. (Blue is Majors, Tan is Comms )


So, when I look back, we can see that my feeling was right about the sentiment for the week. It did go to the Comms. I do realize that I get rattled when there comes a correction. So…at least I didn’t get hurt this week. And I am not getting sucked into the trap of trying to over trade to get back on track of what I lost already. I did good. Now, all I got to do is try to be consistent like this every week. Cause if we look at what I need for a month, it’s doable in a week, no problem.

Now…after I totaled the field this weekend, guess what? I see about the same thing. Comms on a roll. Oh, by the way, I was right about the CAD. They came in second after the JPY. Were the strongest Comm and second overall. All this tells me is, just maybe I am in touch with the market flow. This week anyway. But, now, I am thinking the same thing for this coming week. We can see that the last 2 days of the week went back to the Majors. And due to the fact that the Comms took 2 days in a big fashion, I think they are looking to turn things around.

You know, it does still bug me that I don’t have some concrete ways of entries, exits etc…But, I am not a technical trader. I absolutely do not like indicators. I guess I prefer seeing relationships at work. And in actuality that means watching where the money is flowing in and out of. So, I do know that I need to come up with a system that tells me when to get in, and when to get out. …I’m getting close though. That’s what I’ve been working on a lot lately. …It’s tough, because I want the market to tell me when. We should know by now that the market doesn’t always follow a predictive pattern.

I still need to augment my table. For risk control. But, here’s the latest figures anyway.


Mike

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Hi Journal.
Well, I need to get in here to document what has happened today. And to guard myself for the rest of the week.
Today is Monday morning. I’m off of work today, so that means I can operate in the day-trading scenario. Now, this was not my primary objective today, it just means that I am able to watch the market run and be able to manage my trades closely today. And I know that I don’t have a specific strategy dealing with this short term style of trading, cause this comes around only once a month for me. But, what has happened today is pretty unbelievable.
What I normally do at every market open for the week is set up the M vs C counter. This is the only way I know how to keep track of the field as the week progresses. On one demo account I will place a Comm over Major trade. That’s 15 trades favoring the Comms. I set that at the open and just keep it running all week. And on another demo account I open up another trade but with the Majors over the Comms. That runs all week also. They really are the same, but being the opposite with the end result. This way I am able to check in at the end of every day and see who is dominating and by how much. All I do is look at the bottom line, how many pips are one over the other. And on one more demo account I have ready to go trades that when I do place a live trade, I will quickly enter it on this demo account. And this is because with my broker they just do not have anywhere where I can monitor how many pips are accrued. They only show me in $'s how much I’m up or down. See, I count and monitor pips. That’s always been incorporated in my strategy, and money management, and goals.
Anyway, at the open last night, all was set. Then I wake up (my normal time is 2:30am, been my schedule for a couple yrs now, whether weekday or weekend, without fail)…I woke up to a nice surprise. The Comms were up at about 1,600 pips. And I have come to know that at that level I know there has come a trend. So, what do I do? Well, if you remember what I wrote just yesterday in here, that I believe the Comms are gonna take another week. I still think they are on a roll. So…yep…I get in. Precisely at 2:45am. That’s just about when London business begins. So, after I place them, I input them on my last demo account, to mirror my live trades. To check the pip progress. And the rest is history. The Comms are surely taking off. As I keep myself busy with other work I always seem to have, I keep checking the pip count. I remember seeing around 200 - 300 pips in the positive. At that point I was not too worried. Surely I was not in any danger. Then 500 - 600 pips in the bag…feeling much better that this is the way it’s heading. Then a little later on 1,000 - 1,200 pips accrued. Getting really excited about that. This was around 6 - 7am. London definitely took a cue from Asia. Then I was wondering what North America had in store. So, as the my family members were going to work, bidding them good-bye, I’m checking in on the count. I just cannot believe what’s happening. Nothing but up! Now, I’m wondering if I should just cash out. Because my account has definitely come back from the grave. …And finally…that’s what I did. I cashed out with 1,975.7 pips. My pip count seemed to level off at around 2k pips. Meanwhile there was a total of around 1,600 pips the Comms took when in Asia. So, that was a really good run in total. I’m gonna throw out a newly revised table, and it’s up to date. Yeah, the week hasn’t ended, but I wanted to see the big picture as it stands now. See, this is pretty much the last week of the month. Sure, I have goals in mind, but I feel that enough is enough. It’s real early on in the week now. I can regroup and look for the remaining pips later on in the week.
I’ve been working on my ‘trading system’ very much this morning. I’m not done yet. But I do like working on it in the ‘One Note’. What a good tool. It just might replace my paper and pencil. (well, I don’t want to get too crazy, cause nothing seemingly can replace that, but I guess I never know) (I’m old school)

The other reason why I wanted to get in here is for this reason. I don’t want to screw up this good week that I have started!!! Account wise.

Patience should come much easier, with this cushion I have.
To be honest…I do have in mind my goals for the month. But, I don’t want to drop back down much. And that’s why I have put in the figure for how much I absolutely do not want my account to go below.
I only need 1,465.2 pips to go. And that can be made in one short trade. But, we’ll see. Hopefully the market will make it conducive to get there. If not, then I’ll just wait till next month.
Honestly…that is what I’m thinking.
Oh, and plus I would want to get more of a cushion before I go on to the next level (3k sizing). That is my plan.

Let’s see what happens.
Maybe the next time I come on in here, this weekend, I will be looking real good.
I have a good feeling about it.


Mike

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Hi Journal…Well, as I have just looked at my last entry now…I remember my last sentiment. I was feeling much relieved about getting out of the hole. I mean, my account balance is over a thousand. And it has been a while since I was flirting over 1K. Still some work to do…but…better than being down like 5K pips. Now up to only 14 hundred pips to go. I’m trying to be patient. So the week rolls on. And as I have stated, I think the Comms can still break it open. (One my ‘one note’ I have that down) Monday comes and goes. And guess what? That was the biggest day that anyone has taken! It was the Comms completely dominating over the Majors! I mean, I don’t have records of a one day domination like that day. And that tells me something. This means so much. It just cannot be a ‘one time’ event. But, I wasn’t in the market then. So, Tuesday comes. It was a correction day and the Majors took it by almost half of what the Comms did the previous day. That tells me something also. But what happened was I jumped in the market that day just at the London open. I, of course, was in with the Comms. And only 2 hrs later I found myself losing. I got caught up in the intraday spikes. (Boy I try not to get entangled with that…that’s basically scalping, and I don’t have any proven strategies to tackle that yet). But, I decided to jump on out. That was just before I went to work. I lost -286.8 pips. OK…a bit of a bummer. I was a little bit down. Not all that bad though. Honestly. I just thought it was the time for a big move, …but nope. So, the week rolls on…I seen that the Majors did take that day (like I said). So, then comes Wednesday…I woke up… got to finishing up the numbers, and checking the market. That’s when I decided to get in again. This time, I’m gonna just stay in for the rest of the week.
…OK, well, most of the week I will. It just has to happen. I mean, I’m just waiting for the Comms to take charge again. It’s the end of the month (pretty much). All things point that way. So…then comes Thursday. Numbers looking good. Slowly but surely, all day, nothing but moving on up. I’m just getting much happier as the day progresses. Then it’s Thursday night, NY closed, I’m tallying up the numbers and watching the count. Looking good! But, you know, this is the very interesting thing. Somehow I got to looking at one chart.
This is something I already know about, but, for some reason this hit me hard!! OK…here it is. AUD/JPY. That chart I had up on with my broker. So, I was able to see my account balance move as I seen that chart move. Simultaneously. And guess what? I’ve never seen such correlation!! I mean, whenever there was a pip moving up on the chart, so was my account balance rising. This, again, is nothing new, but for the amount of time I was looking at it, it’s just unbelievable. It truly is the COMM/MAJOR correlation. So, I know now I need to incorporate that into my strategy. That gives me some good ideas to explore (like to be a good confirmation tool, price action wise). Anyway, at that point, I was so close to my monthly goal. I remember saying out loud 'wow…I’m only $30 away from my goal…then it was $20…you know how it goes,… up and down, back and forth, …then it was $10, $9 (quickly)…then dropped back a good bit. Later on I looked back and found out that I was watching the top. Good thing. Because things got to slipping away. Not real quickly, but surely though. I then cashed out. At $30 away from the goal. Hey, I’ll take it.
I really wish I could be watching the pip count, but my broker doesn’t believe in that I guess. Their all about the $'s.
Well, that was the end. There was absolutely no way I was gonna get back in, on Friday. Coming back from the dead was a feat in itself. I’m sitting happy now.
And a note about emotions. I always have to remember the things I have learned, psychologically. (That’s my best quality) Emotions, within themselves, are not bad, or wrong. We are human! We will always be emotional beings. But, the problem comes when they actually make us act in a way in which is not smart. There’s a difference in trading because of emotions, and trading within a logical state of mind. No sense in denying them, but getting past it and thinking smartly is the key.
So, I was thinking of how to handle next month. I’m so close to the goal of $1,300, but not quite there yet.
Do I fudge it and move on to the next level (3K)? Believe me, I thought about it a lot. And I’ve come up with this. NO WAY!!! I’m not gonna cheat. I believe in going by the book. When my account reaches that level, only then am I worthy of moving on. I will play it cautiously though. And another thing I might have failed to mention. I am aware that this week I was playing catch up. I was not following any kind of strict method. I was looking for opportunity, only. I have been working on a formidable plan. And I about have it. It all does make sense now. There needs to be a time to get in, and on what conditions require that? The market will tell me when, and I have come up with when I should. That is all gonna be spelled out when I lay out my entire trading system. I’m not completely done yet. (I know I keep saying that!) It is about 75% done already on my ‘one note’. Very soon. Complete with money management and risk management.
Oh, there is something else I wanted to get down in here. This is gonna be unbelievable to most people. I have always said that I run the numbers…well, I’m gonna detail exactly what I do by showing all of my charts and tables. This is touched upon on the trading system layout that I have been working on. See, there must be a reason why I do what I do. And the answers will come when I explain.
But, for now, I will give the most important chart. The account tracker table.


Mike

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Mike,

thank you for starting this thread. I have actually been on a Demo for 2 years now. I thinks it time that i jump to live. looking forward to more posts.

Journal…
How did I do this week? Well, not too good. Not all that bad either. Dropped some. I’ll get to the details soon.
But first I need to get a lot off my chest.
It’s been bugging me to death of how I just do not have a bonified entry and exit plan. And yes, I have much down about it already, but I keep thinking about it and it’s just not right. So basically it’s not completed. (real big surprise I know). These are the issues I am contentending with.
I do want some kind of signals to follow. I do realize that this is nothing but the basics when one comes up with a trading plan. Sure it’s easier to do all that when you are one to follow simple indicators (when this line crosses that line, then get in…until that line crosses this line, then get out). But, I’m adversed to indicators. I just do not want to follow those. Where I am coming from is this. “THE FLOW”. Something about the flow, anyway. I’m still trying to decide which way I should go though. See, everyone knows that the best way to go is with the trend. That would mean ‘follow the flow’. But, I’m not so sure I want to go that way. Here is what goes through my mind. In the development stage of building a trading system you have to know what you see in the market. I’m just gonna shoot out the paragraphs that always runs through my mind.
Components of a System - Learning Center
Under Market Observation and Hypothesis…those first 4 paragraphs is what I have been struggling with.
I have said to myself…‘what do I see in the market?’ Well, on a daily basis, I run the numbers. What do I see when I see the results? The first thing that came to mind was THERE IS ALWAYS CHANGE HAPPENING.
I mostly pay attention to the Majors vs the Comms. One chart of mine always comes to mind. And without fail, there is always, always, always, change gonna take place. The market goes to one side, for a time, then back to the other. The thing is I just don’t know for how long each side will go on for. (Mister Obvious here)
This is what I see. I see the market as a playing field. With 2 teams that are opposed to each other. And I think there is more change going on than trending. That’s kind of like splitting hairs, cause both occur quite frequently. It’s just what I have noticed. So therefore, I should exploit the change aspect. And that leads me to realize that what I will be looking for is tops and bottoms. That’s relatively speaking. But I’ve always learned that that was not a good thing to do (try to catch a falling knife). Dangerous! So, do I want to do that? Hmmm…I didn’t think so. But, that’s what I see though. It happens. So, I guess I should go in that direction. The appearance would look something like this. If there’s a trend happening I would be doing more sitting out. And then I would be looking for some kind of indication of directional change. Then get in. And ride it until I get what I need. Then get out. And wait till the next change to happen.
Maybe that should be the picture of how I trade.
I need to put all this into the proper time frame perspective also. I do know that I like to look at trading opportunities in a weeks time. Just to get in and out one time in a week. So then, what only would make sense is to look for a change to occur. I would need an indicator to tell me when it happens.
Ok, I will work on that.

I messed up this past week. This is an evil. I have mentioned it before to myself. The bottom line is I cannot scalp. And that’s what I try to do at times, unless I have a predetermined entry and exit.
I got in on Tuesday night. Just by keeping an eye on the M/C pip count. It swung one way and I got in. I went to bed and woke up. I was at break even. Then immediately it sent south. So, I jumped and lost around 400 - 500 pips. Then shortly after that it went back around to where I was at the break even point. Geeeeezzzzz. So what do I do? I get back in. And then it turns again! So, I finally jumped out. All that was 2 trades. And lost a little over 1k pips. I admit it. I was afraid of losing too much. I only wanted a couple hundred pips. And it just didn’t happen. It’s scalping, plain and simple. And for the rest of the week I stayed out. I was looking for to see a Major turn. Even Friday’s NFP report didn’t make that happen. The week went to the Comms. Every day was the Comms, except Monday, which was the last day of the month.
I had the bias last weekend of favoring the Majors. A change from the Comms. But it surely didn’t happen.
I guess I will not rest until I come up with a good system of getting in, getting out.

I must run now. But I plan on writing much more. There’s a lot on my mind.




Mike

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Hi mike. Just to say it’s an interesting thread on the psychology and the emotion you are experiencing. I have subscribed and look forward to reading more. Good luck with you 5 year plan.

Hi Journal…what a week it has been. To summarize it would be to say it was such a roller coaster ride! And…I am learning very much.
I am learning about the market, myself, and how I should trade. As time passes by, things become more clearer. It’s kind of like experience is the best teacher. But, I always feel like, by now, I should have everything in place, looking good with the trading plan, strategy, etc…(Why do you think I spent so much time in demo? 3 yrs is probably just too long) Well, that is just not the case now. Maybe it will never be that way. Cause I don’t think I’ll ever get to the point where I will say ‘ahh, I have arrived now’. (That’s the perfectionist side of me) But… I sure am trying to get to that point. And I’m sure by now Journal that your probably getting tired of hearing me say that I am getting closer to finding my trading plan, system, strategy, etc…Sure, I am pushing myself to find it, but, now I am realizing that it is unraveling slowly, but surely. And I am starting to believe that I can make it (money) within finding the process. I don’t know…I thought that all of this should be set in stone first, proven and tried, and only then will I be able to make that progress.

Nope. This week has led me to believe that I can do it. Like I said, it was a real roller coaster ride. I was in the market pretty much the whole week. In with the Majors since the open. Till Thursday morning (London open). At that point, boy, did it get interesting. But…to back it up, the week was going back and forth. My sentiment was all about siding with the Majors. That was my bias since the weekend. The Comms had the last 3 weeks in a row. Nothing but domination. We should all know it was because of the Oil bouncing up. And I thought that there was a correction due. So, I’m looking for a Major come back. Monday…went to the Majors (by a little), so that was good. I stayed in. Then Tuesday went to the Majors again (by a lot this time). And what did I do? I stayed in. I was up. Everything looking good account wise. And at this time I am expecting much more from the Majors. So I stay in. But Wed went to the Comms ( not by a whole lot, but they were up). So then my account is coming back down to break even. Yeah, it was a bummer, but I kept it together. Then comes Thursday morning…I watch the market closely. And yes, I am falling trap to the intraday back and forth movement that is sooooooo very dangerous to watch. It’s the battle of the emotions looking at the spiking of the pips. What do I do? Do I watch a blood bath take place before my eyes? Or do I do something about it? Things are going the Comms way. All I need to do is watch the AUD/JPY chart. And that was on it’s way up. And I’m losing pips very quickly. So I jump (only lost -63 pips). And also I switch. Went in with the Comms. I mean, they are taking control. Then what happens? 2 hrs later I’m down. Yep, it went back with the Majors. See Mike…this intraday movement is evil! I was even sitting here telling myself that as it was happening! ‘You can’t go by what is happening in such a short time period’. So, then I jump…I just cannot win. ‘Which way is this gonna go?’ So, I’m getting tired (as I normally do before I have to go to work) I have about a half hour to go before I must leave. I’m sitting there with my eyes closed. Thinking…thinking…(I’m not in with anyone at this point)…Today is gonna bring very much movement…The EUR is gonna rock the markets…my account is gonna either go bust, or make it…what do I do…I’m coming up with all of the reasons for both sides…even remembering what my bias was last weekend…thinking of all my charts…then at the last minute (man, I got to get going here) I decided to stick with the plan…In with the Majors. So I hurry up and place the trades. Off to work I go. It’s only gonna be about 2 hrs till the EUR hits us with the news. So, I’m at work, eyeing the market. And it happens…my account is dropping like you wouldn’t believe…I am saying to my buddy that I am losing my butt. I said that a few times. Emotionally, sure, it doesn’t feel good. I even was very, very close to closing out those trades and to go with the Comms…But…no…I am committed. The week has not ended. It is not over. We just have to wait it out and see what happens. Then…what do you know…about a couple hrs later…my account balance is coming back…What?..OK great…That’s a relief…then I check it some minutes later…coming back more…oh wow…OK great! Then more and more!! Man…I just cannot believe it…My account is coming back from the dead…It’s like you can call me Lazarus (or Jesus)…So, I’m feeling real good now. And more and more it comes back…not only into the green…but I’m looking at the most important figure of all. My goal!! Yes…I’m so close to completing my Feb’s goal. Unbelievable. And then it happens. My goal is met. So…since there is nothing more important to me than that, I get out. And I am extremely happy. This is what my account traveling looked like…embarrassing I know. $700.00 - $1,300.00 Then, as I have looked back, it was only about an hour or so later (after I jumped out) that the market turned. It went back to the Comms. And not only that, but for the rest of the week did it slant very much over to the Comms. But you know what…I didn’t care. I was out. Looking good.
What a ride.
Well, I’m short on time here now.
Again…I have much more to say, specifically about what I am learning about my strategies. I am hoping to get to that later this weekend.
Here is my latest numbers. I have made it more clearer. I do feel good about how I have handled my emotions this week.



Mike

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"This is my path, where I am going, and how I am going to get there.’’

https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=688813FD5F263C!1139&authkey=!ADv4GTDKY-85QsU&ithint=onenote%2C

Well, I’m not sure what your gonna see exactly here, but what I’ve been trying to do is make a link to get to my trading plan.
I have much written about me and where I’m going. If you get to the general one note, then look in the tab ‘trading system’.
That’s where it’s all at.

Hi Journal…

Well, I had a good week. I mean, nothing real major, but…no damage incurred either. So I guess it was a very good week then!!
I’m thinking this is the kind of play I should be doing, as normal. Look, I’m learning a lot. And as time goes by, I should be learning that much more. ‘Live and Learn’. As long as I don’t make same mistakes.
What did I learn this week you ask Journal? Uh…ok…here we go!
It is definitely best to be on the sidelines, more than to be in the action. See, I was off of work on Monday (I worked a Sat., therefore I get that Monday off). And you know what that means. Yep, doing what I love the most. My business! More accurately speaking is …my future business. So, to back it up some. My analysis for this up coming week was a bias for the Majors. So therefore this week I was looking for a confirmation, and a reason to get in with the Majors. Well, it didn’t take long to see that. I was up at the London open, Monday am, and seen that they started taking out the Comms even from the open of the week through Asia. So, I went in with them (Majors) at London open. And since I didn’t have to go anywhere Monday, I kept an eye on the market, pretty much the whole day. It was looking good. So, yep, given that (day trading scenario)…all I see is the back and forth going on, but the Majors did have it, slowly but surely having the upper hand. And yes, I was up some good pips. But, when it was getting close to the end of the London session, I kind of got scared off. Once again, I think that I could lose it all. The Comms will spike a pretty good bit, and I get to thinking that it will turn to them, for good. So…after so long of seeing that…I finally jumped out. And the reason was (a good one mind you) that I got the weeks worth of pips secured.
It was around +430 pips. So, as I’m busy with much other stuff, I’ll look at the market to see what’s the spread (between the Majors/Comms). And yep…boy…I guess I should have just stayed on in. Man…it went up to over like 1,200 pips (Majors positive). ‘Oh well. Just let it go’. ‘I’m good Mike’. So, that was Monday. The Majors took them that day. The daily count was 881. Then Tuesday comes, and goes, and they take it again from the Comms. By even more. That count was 1087. Oh well…at least I made a good call on the bias. But, I don’t want to get in any more this week. The only way I would have would be to see what happens on Wed. We all know that the Fed was gonna rock the market one way or the other. And all I’m interested in seeing is a bias for the Majors. That would be a USD positive. So, I’m waiting to see the outcome of that bomb. …and we all know what happened…man -o- man…The Fed made it go in the way of the Comms. Of course the spiking and stretching ends up more than the daily end numbers, but the total count for the Comms that day ended up to be +1759 pips. And to boot they even took the next day. But, not by a whole lot. That all tells me that the money was running to the risky assets. Yep, the Fed decision…let’s see…made the oil climb higher (commodities)…global equity markets to run very high…the yields of the US treasuries to take a huge dive down (man…and they were climbing pretty high just before this time)…gold ended up shooting up very much also. So, bottom line is, it didn’t fair well for the Majors.
I was not gonna get in. The only time I thought I might would be to see some kind of profit taking on Friday am. But, after Asia came and went and London started, for the next couple hours I just didn’t see that happening. So, oh well, this was a week. But guess what…I did make my weekly pip count. And I guess that’s what really matters. Sure there was opportunity for me to have had more, but I’m not perfect. As long as I’m safe, I’m good.
This week I have walked the walk of patience. Sure it wasn’t a perfect week, cause if I would have only hung in there through Monday, maybe even to Tuesday, I would’ve been in so much better shape (that would’ve made my monthly goal). I need to remember that this day comes once a month for me. (Once a month I have to work a Sat, then I get Monday off). The day trading scenario. I mean, my strategy is positioned and planned on the trade running for at least a day. Not for just a few hours. So, in that sense, I guess I didn’t do too bad considering.
But anyway, I’ve been really, really busy coming up with my mission statement. It’s kind of like having a business plan. But, to me, what I have come up with is the ‘what, when, how, and even why’ of what I’m all about. This is my journey. I spent many hours coming up with this. And I feel that it is important and should be noted in here. ‘My journey journal’. I have it all on my one note program. So, I hope it an be seen with the above link. I do work much in that one note. I take notes every weekend there also.

Ok, so here’s my latest. Looking good.


Mike

Hi Journal, I finally got to you now. I’m sorry. I’ve just been so very busy. Ok, I did put you on the back burner, from all the things that I must get done on the weekends, regarding my business. But hey…you know…I did put you up front in the last couple weekends though. Don’t forget about that. So, what have I been up to, do I still have an account left? Uh…yeaaaaahhhhh. I’m not doing bad at all. But what a week it has been. I know, you hear that a lot from me huh. Well, I do have a story about it. Want to hear?
Ok, how about this. I’m gonna show you. And you can probably fill in the sentiment of how the one trade went this week. So, in this pic if you can see there’s a line drawn of where I went in, in with the Majors. And there’s a line where I got out.


So, I was up early the one day when the bombing in Brussels happened. But I was not aware of it at the time. I was though having an eye on the market during that time period. To back it up a little, my bias was for the Majors again this week. So that’s who I will get in with, only. And on the charts I see the second very, very huge candle just take a dive on down like you wouldn’t believe. (Man…I just did not know the reason for that). But anyway, on the chart if it goes down, then that’s Majors positive. BTW…that’s a chart of the AUD/JPY, hour candles, from the beginning of the week to the end. And you see the line where I went in. I mean, man, HERE WE GO MAJORS! Well, heck, who wouldn’t go in with the safe havens when catastrophe strikes! But, it just did not take long for an about-face. And there goes my pips…I mean…the Comms just keep on with it. So, I tell myself, ‘well, looks like we’re in this for the long run’. And so, the day ends, with me losing my butt. You don’t want to know how much I was losing. This all was on Tuesday. (like $400. worth). But I hung in there. And you know what…it didn’t take a whole lot of time till I started to see things turn around. It was Wednesday that I was very much relieved to see my account come on back up. Then Thursday morning when I woke up, (London open), I was back up to break even. So, I proceed to finish up the daily numbers while keeping an eye on my account. Guess what? We’re seeing green! And it is moving on up pretty good. After I was done, I kept very, very close watch on the price action. I finally jumped. And raked in over 300 pips. OK!!..I was pretty dog gone happy with that, given all what I went through. But if you look at the chart, the line of where I jumped is not even close to where I got in at. I guess that’s the difference the other currencies I’m in with matters.
I’m happy. I didn’t quite make the weekly benchmark goal, but this is close enough. And the month is not over with. Besides, the last week of the month is got to be my favorite. It’s the months end play. And boy do I have a sentiment for this last week coming up. I probably should explain, but I have much written up on that in my ‘one note’.

Well, that’s my only story. What did I learn? Anything?? Uhhh…yeah…nice going hanging in there Mike.
Yeah, I hope I don’t get too used to losing like that. How many times am I going to come on in here and say that I was raised up from the dead. I guess that’s the name of the game. And probably what’s to be expected. See, I know this just does not look good for an account. Any trader is going to lose. I do understand that. It’s all about minimizing the risk. But you have to consider the manner in which I trade. It’s not just one currency paired against another. It’s half of everyone against the other half. So, what do I need to learn here. Well, I do realize that I jumped in the market pretty hastily. I mean, that was some kind of drop. Like 2 hrs worth!! …of straight down!!!..I don’t know…I do know that I will remember this. And I need to have good reasons. Not just seeing a red (or two) candles. I should have a better plan, for entries. But I realize also that this strategy I have is very forgiving. I mean, there seems to be chance after chance to get back what I have lost. And I have been taking them.
I am learning. More and more everyday.

Well, here’s the latest account data.


Mike

Hi Journal…
I know, you probably thought I forgot about you this weekend. Uh, nope. Man…I have been just sooo busy.
First off, it’s the end of the month figures I must tally. And this takes a longer time for me, especially when it ends at around the weekend. That coupled with the weekend numbers is a lot. Yeah, sometime I should show you exactly what I do. You wouldn’t believe it. In fact, no one would. But, it’s all for the cause of putting the market into perspective. I do enjoy it, very much so. It’s just a lot of work. And someday I must get it to be automated. You know, a computer program to have run the numbers for me. Someday.
But, anyway…today is Monday, mid-day now. Yep, I’m off of work, and thank God! Cause I just about finished all the tallying of the numbers. Let’s see, it took about between 6 - 8 hours, in total, to get to this point. I know, crazy huh. Oh well. Good thing I enjoy it. I’ll never stop doing what I love. I just have to get smart and be efficient in what I do, that’s all. But, I do have another problem with this also. It’s the fact that I’ve been falling asleep too much. (when I should be working on my business) I could manage my time much more efficiently if I didn’t get tired so much. And now I’ve been very upset with myself lately. I’m no stranger to waking up 2:30am every morning. (It’s only been like 3 yrs now). 5-6 hours of sleep a night is plenty. It must have something to do with my diet. I don’t know…but I’m going to crack down on myself real hard now. I just cannot have this. And I know that this is all temporary…(squeezing in my business while I have a full time job). I just cannot wait till that day comes. And I’ll probably work so much harder, because then I’ll be working for myself!! Only!!

Ok, that’s nice. Now, what about this past week. How did I do you ask? Oh boy…you do not want to know.
I did not do so well. I lost. …I mean…I lost. This week was one for the memories. Sure, I’ve been down and behind before, but this week…oh man…not good.
I placed the trade, Majors over the Comms, on Tuesday am. Well, that was a mistake. Cause later on that day Janet talked. Mid day. And let the whole world know that the US is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
Boy, did that hurt the US Dollar. And the Majors. Well, I kept thinking of what I should do. Keep losing by butt? Or stick with it until it comes back, like I have been accustomed to doing? I have such a conviction that the Comms are just way too overvalued. That’s the sentiment I’ve had for a while now. So, you know what? I’m sticking to my guns. No matter what. As long as I have an account left, I’m still in. And that’s what I did. I kept in the market, with the Majors. …and guess how low I seen my account fall to?
HALF. My account dropped to half of what I had at the beginning of the week. Yep. I know. That’s crazy.
But the other thing is I keep thinking of how much I trust my system. I mean, I really trust the fact of what I have always seen in the market. It comes back! I’m talking about between the Majors and the Comms. Not in the context of one currency against another. Sure, that’s suicide. But that’s what I was thinking as the week progressed. I’m not moving. The Comms can only go on for so long. (risk-on play) Then, if I remember, I think it wasn’t too long, oh yeah, it was Friday when I seen a turn around. The Majors started making a come back. I was hoping it would’ve been before the end of the month, but nope, one more day later. So, I was on the come back trail again. (man…how many times is this gonna happen?) And I even said to someone that if I pull out of this one, it will truly be remarkable. I also have gained a little bit more experience, and I’m talking about psychologically speaking. I think I even said to myself, ‘I am not afraid anymore’. Cause, to see such a monumental falling away, and to see myself not react emotionally because of that, is truly something. OK, to be honest, when I think about it, there was a time (matter of minutes) where I was doubting myself. I mean whether I can be successful as a trader. Whether I can do this as a business. And it seems like there is a correlation between how good my account is = how good of a trader I am. So, when the account went down to $700.00 from $1483.00, I wondered if I really am a trader or not. Does it mean I’m not a trader if my account goes bust? And does it only mean I’m a trader if my account climbs real high? Well, honestly that did go through my head. I remember. I was working (at work) and kept thinking of what was going on in the market. (- yeah, thanks Janet -) But, no, seriously, I was a wreck for a short time. Then, I have a talk with myself. And that’s when the smart side of me takes over. 'You know what Mike?..I don’t care what the market does…I will pick myself up, dust myself off, learn what I need to learn, and move on!!..I was born for this…I cannot deny myself. And I won’t.
So, I listened. And I kept my head. Sure, I have feelings, just like anyone. But I’m not going to act out of them. I remembered my sentiments about the Majors, Comms. Plus I thought that I would do so much more harm if I switched. Things can get so terribly ugly when I start switching. I’ve been there, and I don’t like it when I’m in a whirlwind (due to the switching). So, I’m still convinced that the Majors have something to give to them. So,…time passes by. It took till Friday, but things did come on back for me. And I wanted to just stay in the market, whether a new month, new week, I don’t care…I’m just staying in with the Majors. I don’t even care what my account looks like on paper for the month, week, anything.
Just wait till I get in with the flow! See, up to this point, I really haven’t been in with a good flow. I’ve either been with the losing team, or breaking even (a come back). And I feel it is (very) possible for me to finally catch up with the one that is trending very high against the other. I have charts that show some really lengthy trends that can make one very well off. And one of these days I will be riding on it. I just think that this Comm ride must be close to an end. Especially after what had happened at the beginning of the year.
What am I learning? Well, I have more of a respect for the market. In the aspects that it can be brutal, with no mercy, in the short term. But, I also think that it’s kind of dumb. In the short term sense that is. Sure, the longer the time frame, the smarter. What else…my system is more reliable than I think. I will not trade any other way. And the work that I put into this does pay off. My patience is being tested more and more. And I’m kind of surprised that I can keep it together (from that extent), just like a real trader should.

Ok, that’s nice (too). Uh, I’m going to show what my account looks like. And I think I will explain much of it also. Warning. It doesn’t look too good. But, oh well. It’s the truth.


Ok, so, I didn’t make my March’s goal. The money goal. (1,600) So, even though I am in the month of April, I will still be working on M’s goal. I will stick with 3K position sizing, till I achieve it. I have 2,663.7 pips to go. The pink colored squares equates to my position sizing. The brownish colored ones were for a 2K position sizing, which was for the month of Feb. And we can see that it took me through the second week into March to achieve Feb’s goal. And now it will be the same with in April. So, I’m behind, again. And I’ll change April’s 4K position sizing to a different color (their white now), once I accomplish March.

Well, it’s Monday afternoon now. And I’ve been in the market with the Majors (never left it, with them). And boy oh boy are things looking good for me. Yep, tonight’s figures are going to go to the Majors. And my account is looking so much better. We have a new month ahead of us now. And just as I have thought, the Majors are taking it. Well, the first day so far. But, my thoughts are that they are gonna take a good bite out of the Comms this week. And I think I just might stay in with them, for a good long while. Unless I see a very bad day and the Comms take a day, but they will have to take it by a lot (over 1K pips). In that case, I will have to jump.
Man, do I wish this week will be huge for me. I’ve been waiting for a break out for a long time now. (Ok, a month). I guess it wasn’t gonna happen in the month of March. How about April?
We’ll see.

Mike
Btw…my account has risen up well over 1,300 so far today. So, I’m starting to see daylight.


1 Like

Keep it up Mike, brilliant read. Im sure detailing everything like this helps you get a balanced overview which in turn should help your trading.
Good luck

Hi Journal…guess what…I made it!!! And it’s only the 3rd trading day of the month. I completed March’s goal. So, I’m happy.
Man…I knew the Majors had it in them. All day yesterday, and then this morning…I hit. And then I jumped. Yeah, watch them take the rest of the week. shrug We’ll see how it all turns out. I’m not gonna be in a real hurry to get back in.


Mike