There’s nothing wrong with working on a demo for a long time, in fact I feel sorry for the traders who neglect this opportunity, because it minimizes the risks, and also allows you to find your strategy that suits you for the long term.
Good morning Journal.
Today is Sat. April 11th.
Let’s see, what’s knew…
Well, not a lot. But then again, a whole lot.
We’re all still quarantined. Shuttered up. Lives put on hold. But, I believe these are very interesting times. Look. The older I get, the more I realize. We don’t know what’s gonna happen in the future. I mean, who would have thought, like a month to two months ago, we would be living like this? The whole country, world, shut down like this? Honestly. No one seen this coming.
Back it up to the beginning of the year. You know how the analysts like to project what we have to look forward to, what the most pressing risks facing us are. Surely, on a lot of economists’ minds, were the high probability of a global recession. Well, shall we say, a deviation from the long over due bull market we’ve been having. Right? A dip. I mean. I remember a lot of analysts saying, and projecting, it’s all gonna take place at around the second half of this year or even starting early next year.
My point is, us humans, have an innate desire to want to know what’s going to happen in the future. Sure, we know it’s futile to honestly think we can know what the future will hold. But I think what we really want, more than anything, is certainty. Think about it. The more certain things are, and if it turns out that way (which a lot of times it does), then we become happy. Satisfied. Feel good. Comfortable. At ease. Actually, this is what a trader deals with all the time, huh? Psychologically anyway.
But, I’m talking more about, everything. Life. Our lives. We simply want certainty. And when uncertainty comes, well then, we end up reacting, in whatever ways we do. Some of us handle what life throws at us better than others. I think it’s all about adapting. I’m sure there are some people who are better at adapting to change than others. And to those who don’t like change, well, I’m sure these are some very unpleasant times.
I’ll tell you what I’ve been thinking lately. Actually, since this all started. But, check this out. The longer this goes on (meaning the country being in a lock down state) the more change we will have to deal with, in the future. I simply don’t think things will go back to the way they were. Meaning, I think the normal won’t be what it used to be. And I can’t even tell you in what ways, either. Just that things might be very different.
Look. Right now, we’re right in the middle of it all. All we’re doing is seeing, feeling, experiencing the change as it is presently happening. There is a lot of standstill going on right now. Peoples normal habitual ways of life are no longer the same. I would imagine we’re getting to a place where we are developing different habits. And who knows whether they are good, or not. I don’t even want to know.
Surely there are some good things coming out of this. I’ve thought about this from the beginning. Check this out. Do you know that one of the ten commandments is to keep the Sabbath? God made it very clear to us that we need to rest. If you read that carefully, you will see how important He thinks of that. So much so, that when He created everything, He purposely made a complete day (the 7th day) for rest. Basically, He showed us that we should be like Him. There’s a time for work, and a time for rest. And if He had to make that into a commandment, with consequences if not followed, then that should tell you how important He wants that for us.
In today’s day and age, I believe mankind doesn’t know how to rest. It seems to be all about work. Well, isn’t it funny how we are pretty much forced to rest now? I believe this is one of the good things that are coming out of this. Whether we like it or not. I’m sure there are a lot of people who, deep down, are realizing this about themselves. Sure, we all need to work. Of course. I mean, He gave us 6 days to do it in. Isn’t that enough? Out of 7? I don’t know. Maybe it’s the land that needs the rest also. We all know that this world just doesn’t stop. Sunday’s are not what it used to be. Like sacred, do nothing, set aside day for rest only.
Anyway. That’s just one point. I’m sure there’s a whole lot of other things going on, behind the scenes. In any case. I think there’s gonna be changes. Maybe not even the big changes that you would see everyday. I’m talking about consequences that have lasting effects. In:
Businesses.
Commerce.
Finance.
Technology.
Countries.
Relationships.
In each of those topics you could have a good discussion about.
What changes will take place?
That’s nice. I know.
Anyway.
Personally speaking. Yesterday, I got some news. Our governor, of PA., made it that every school in our state will be closed for the rest of this school year. I mean, I kind of had that thought already. But, when the answer actually comes, boy, reality hits home. Man…I really got to thinking.
Remember Journal, how I just got done telling you about how us humans always want to know what the future is gonna hold? Well, I just got the word that I won’t be having my school bus driving job till the fall. And so, what am I supposed to do? Think? Act? Well, the first thing that comes to mind is the unemployment compensation. What a mess that is. If you can imagine a million people, all at once, filing. All I can do is hope that I will eventually get it. Cause now I can see that I’m gonna be in it for the long haul (the next 5-6 months).
So, personally, yes, there is a lot of uncertainty going on right now. That’s off the top of my mind. But down deep, this is where I come from. I know who’s in control. Who’s really in charge. And in fact, who knows my destiny. As long as I follow Him, I know things will work out good. Sure. I’m worried. I’m known as someone who worries maybe a little too much. But actually, what I’m mostly worried about is whether I am following Him! As best as I can. Now that’s something to worry about.
It comes down to trust. All my trust is in Him. God, my creator. My father in heaven. Jesus, my savior. That’s where my confidence truly lies.
So. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out. Times of uncertainty. Times of change.
Don’t mind me Journal, I always view things from the bigger perspective. All that nonsense up there is just how I do it. Just call me macro Mike.
Ok. That’s nice.
How about some trading stuff?
Sure. Let’s talk trading. Man, I got good stuff going on. Much stuff I am realizing. So, I’ll just cut this and come back with it all.
But not without some more coffee though.
Be right back Journal!
Mike
Journal.
Let’s see. Well, I’m sorry I didn’t come on in here last weekend. I don’t know, it just didn’t feel right. In fact, I don’t think I calculated my weekend numbers, like I usually do. Probably because the first of the month started on Wednesday. So therefore, I’m gonna call this, right now, the first complete week of the month.
This is gonna be different. Cause I told you of my changes, last time. Which is my trading consists of 2 separate accounts (in fact, I have to figure it out myself). I will as we go along. So anyway, here goes the macro of it.
I trade complete currencies. What that means is this. It’s a basket of trades. It’s 7 pairs running at once. All for one and one for all. This first quarter, I traded the JPY. Which means the 7 Yen pairs. Their all going in the same direction. So, in whatever trend they were in (told me by my trend indicator), all 7 pairs traded in that particular direction. Of course that would be in either a JPY bull trend (south), or a JPY bear trend (north). Basically, the Yen is either shorted or longed.
My trades run continually. No stops, whatsoever. I’m continually in the market. Have been, since the beginning of the year. Therefore, my only job is to switch directions at the appropriate time. And so, at the end of every month, I withdraw from my trading account what I need. It’s that simple.
But I do have another element, that of adding position sizing. This is something that has been developing. I compartmentalize it all into standard sizes. I will always have at least one standard size on each of my 7 pairs. And to be more specific, what I call a standard size is something from Mastergunners methodology. Whatever the size of my account balance is, that’s the amount of units I put on each pair. For instance, if I start out with a $30,000 account balance, then my first standard sizes will be 30,000 units. That’s on each pair. Remember, one for all and all for one. The same. But, there will be times when I have 2 sizes on. Not always, just certain times. They will come on and go off.
But…that’s pretty much it. All of this is what I call trading a complete currency. But, for this new quarter (2nd), I’ve added another currency. Along with the JPY, I now trade the AUD also. And the only way I know how to do this is to open another separate account for it. Now I have two. That’s two $30k accounts. I’m just keeping track of them both. We’ll have to see what I do at the end of the month. I don’t know yet. But one thing I do know, is that I have to pay myself (withdraw). I will have to figure out the best way to go about it. TBA.
Ok. Enough nonsense talk. How is this month going so far, with it? Well, I have to say. At first, it was rough. Kind of made a mistake. But I knew I needed time for it to play out. But for the first week and a half now, it’s turning out very promising. I’m very happy with it. I’ll show you in a minute how it unraveled. But, I get more excited about them the more I do the back testing of them (AUD). I’ll get to more of that later.
Well, I started out this way. I’ll have to show you what tells me in which direction to go in (my indicator).
Without showing you the whole history, just know that the AUD has been in a long bear market this year. The red tells me their in a bear market. Green bull. And what’s inside is the strength of it. Up there is the lead up into the end of the month. Notice the strength of the bear market shrinking and shrinking, eventually leading to a change in trends. On the 30th. Well, it was at this time, at EOD Tuesday the 30th, when I seen this, that I decided to start my new currency trading. Therefore, I placed my 7 AUD pairs going long. I followed the plan. This is what the chart looked like then.
Now, if you add up the differences of the 5 ema’s and 9 ema’s, in pips, at this point you will have a total of 40 pips. It’s my aggregate number that tells me that the AUD is in a bull market. Well, sure does seem like a change in trend coming, huh? Only against the GBP do they not look like a bull. And that’s why I look at the aggregate figure, not just one pair. In fact, if you look above, that 6-1 figure is saying just that. The Pound is that one pair their trending bear against. The rest bull.
Next day results.
I added on there the days pips results. Which was -390 pips. That’s the total amount of all 7 pairs. Ok. So. Not going so well. But the thing is, I followed the plan. So, I’m alright with it. Here’s the related chart.
Well, as you can see, not looking so good. And my only job is to follow. So that’s what I do. Let’s see the next day.
The trend changes. It went back to a bear market. All of the pips in between the 5 & 9 will add up to 6 pips, to the bear side. Look.
It’s looking like a turn, right? What can I do…I just follow. Look above at that daily pip count. It was 456 pips. That would be a -456 pips for me, cause I was long the AUD (I just keep track of the perfect system that way). In any case, I switch at this EOD. Ok. Fine. I take the loss. And then immediately get back in, going AUD bear. This happens. It’s called the whip saws. We got to ride them out. Let’s move on then.
That goes to the end of that week (last week). Here’s the related chart.
Meanwhile, I forgot, that when I originally got in with them, that it was only with one standard sizing (my rule is to always start out with 2 sizes). Therefore, over the weekend I contemplated going in with another size. And that’s what I did. I can’t remember if it was before the close, of last week, or at the open. In any case, I went with another size. So that means 2 sizes on each, going AUD bear (south). Cause look at my table. Sure does look like their escalating into bear territory. So, let’s move on. Here’s Monday’s EOD results.
Yeah, I seen it happen that day. The trend turned pretty violently back to AUD bull. Look at the EOD pip results. +1106 pips. You don’t know it, but when I see 85 pips bear market turn to 39 pips bull market, that’s quite huge! Well, 1106 pips should explain all of that. This is what the related chart looks like, EOD Monday.
Those are some bid daily candles. Especially against the GBP, huh? Well, all this means to me is to change directions, again. Whip sawed. But…that’s the game. And this time, when I get in (going AUD bull), I go in with 2 sizes. And this makes sense to me. The AUD got strong, touched the bull market, retraced back down for some momentum, and turned back up to go much higher and stronger in their bull market trend. Makes all kind of sense to me.
Alright. I’m done with the day by day. Let’s just see how the week turns out.
Yeah, they turned bull alright. It wasn’t pretty at the start, but the ending, well as it stands right now anyway, is all trend. Now look at the EOD pip results. Lots of them. All week also. Oh, and by the way, I doubled them up on the 7th. So I raked in 932 of them that day. I only could wait out one days worth. Took profit quite quickly, cause I didn’t think this was gonna last. But, the good thing is that I’m still in it (cause that’s my plan…always riding it out). I chalked up a good amount of pips the rest of the week (673, 894, 67). Here’s the related chart.
Well, in hindsight, you can see getting whip sawed hurts, but it doesn’t always stay that way. I mean look. There’s absolutely no way I should have known that this original AUD bull market would keep. My only job is to follow. I have to trust my trend indicator. And in a nut shell, all it is, is the aggregate amount of pips between all of the 5 & 9 ema’s. It’s a smoothed out way of determining the trend along with seeing the macro picture, at the same time. I know of no better way.
But, as I’ve mentioned earlier, what most excites me is the results I’m getting from the back testing. It’s what happens over time. I’ve been comparing all of the 8 currencies. And, by far, the AUD proves the most promising.
Not only that, Journal, but I’ve been learning more on how I should be utilizing the factor of adding position sizes. The IF and WHEN I should be doing that. I truly believe it’s coming together. Trust me, I have a lot of notes on it all.
Speaking of that. I know you don’t see it, but I’ve been working so very much in my “Business Journal”. I had to buy more pencils (I really like the plastic leaded ones). And I also got a huge amount of paper (some I bought and some Trish donated, from her office). So, I’m set. And putting it all to good use. Needless to say, this tool is extremely beneficial to me. I often go back over what I wrote down. In fact, I even tell myself in there to come back to a particular point. It’s the hindsight perspective that I use and learn from.
Look. I like typing. A lot, as you can tell. But I’m just as much a pencil, paper kind of person the same. Can’t take the old school out of me.
Anyway. I think I should wrap all this up.
So, for documentation purposes.
This is my latest with the AUD account. Of course, it’s still open and running.
And my JPY account.
AUD
First complete week
- +2.72%
JPY
First complete week
- +2.01%
Combined Total
- +4.73%
Alright Journal, I do have much else going on. But maybe not for today. I should come back in sometime this week and share the things that I’m excited about. I truly believe my trading system is getting better and better.
Thanks for listening!
Mike
Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat. April 18th.
I just finished up tallying a lot of numbers. So, yeah, it’s pretty late now. The sun is up. And I’m sure she’ll be waking up soon. But since this is all fresh for me now, I’ll just go ahead with my journaling, in here. And maybe I’ll just keep with the numbers today, you know, instead of the talking I’m known to do.
I don’t know.
We’ll see though.
Anyway. Let’s see. What kind of week did I have this week? Well, from what I just got done writing in my business journal, it was a good week. Actually, from the numbers standpoint, not so good. Negative. And I’ll put 'em up later. But I’m not upset about that. At all. This is exactly what I wrote down.
“REMEMBER - What’s the most important aspect of my trading?”
- BEING POSITIONED CORRECTLY
See, there’s a big difference between what my results turn out to be, to whether I followed correctly my trading plan. Any trader (a real trader) knows that following your plan just doesn’t always turn out positive numbers. You know, the weekly turn out. It’s the long term figures that matter most. We will have losing days, weeks…and in fact I’m sure, even months. It’s to be expected. And when I think about it, it’s just part of the game. It’s what I need to remember. And am.
But, what’s more important is whether I am following the plan. You know, the rules that I have laid out. The boundaries. Things that I can do, and the things that I can’t do. The consistent way that I should be trading. A.K.A. the strategy.
Well, this week, I came a little close to the edge. But didn’t go over it. And this is to be expected whenever I’m encountered with a switch of trends. Let me explain this in more detail. Here’s the hindsight view first.
This is how the entire month has turned out so far. Everybody knows. Whenever the trend switches back and forth, trading is tough! That needs to be said, right from the beginning. But, let’s just take a look at this week, for now.
The JPY is full blown in a bear trend. Actually, we can see, now, that on Friday the 10th was the top. I didn’t know that, coming in to the week. Their weak. And so, the week plays out. On Monday, they got stronger. Netted 308 pips, counter trended. All of my 7 JPY pairs (bear, going north), lost 308 pips. That’s fine. What can I do? And also the strength of their bear trend ends up losing ground, goes from 174 down to 125. Well, according to my plan, I do nothing. No actions to be taken. But, I need to note about the changing figure 4-3, from 5-2. That means the JPY is trending bear against 4 other currencies now, instead of 5 in the day before. Basically, this bear trend is weakening. The strongest trend will go from 7-0 (their trending against all other currencies), then to 6-1 (their trending against 6 other currencies and 1 counter trending). Then to 5-2 (their trending against only 5 other currencies and 2 counter trending). Then to 4-3 (their trending against only 4 other currencies and 3 counter trending).
Basically, I’m seeing some early indications of a changing trend, at this point. So then comes Tuesday. EOD. And the resulting trend strength goes down even more to a 93. With the pip result netting 60 pips to the positive, believe it or not.
Need to throw this table up again. Cause nothing is more important to my trading than following this.
But, I’m seeing the EOD stats, only. Well, what about during the day? What if it changes during the day, will I then change? The answer is yes. I finally made this change recently. I’m taking the guessing game out of the equation. I’ll show you how it happens. And in fact, how I did it this week.
All that number, in the middle, is nothing but the aggregate amount of pips between all 7 JPY pairs’ 5 & 9 ema prices. I’m simply adding them all up. Sure, this is all smoothed out prices, but they still are live and moving. Cause don’t forget, all moving average prices factor in what the current price is also. Which means that it’s alive and moving. All you have to do is watch the live ema prices and you’ll see them going back and forth in real time. That’s why I think it’s nonsense when people think that moving averages are lagging indicators. They are alive and kicking just as much as the most present price does. It’s simply smoothed out, that’s all.
Anyway. All I do is add them all up, in real time. It only takes like a minute. 7 pairs. The 5 & 9 lines’ differences. I document this as I do it. This is how it went down. Now, if you look above, the EOD figure was 93 BEAR. Then at …
- 5:37am = JPY 26 BEAR
- 6:21am = JPY 14 BEAR
- 7:01am = JPY 0 BEAR
And this is when I switched my JPY trades. I actually completed the switch at 7:07am that Wednesday morning. Why? Cause it went down to 0. THAT is my indicator that tells me when to switch. And all I do is exit out of all my 7 JPY bear trades (north) and then immediately enter all my 7 JPY bull trades (south). And, according to my rules, I go in with 2 sizes on each.
Here we go again.
The EOD results are what…4 BEAR trend still. It didn’t change! So now what? Did I make a mistake? Will this stay a bear trend? No. I just got in a little early. The pip count ended up being -498 pips. That’s counter trended. They did get strong that day. The reason why it’s a negative figure is because they are technically in a bear market. Positive pip results equals trended pips, and negative pip results equals counter trended pips.
My trading results was only slightly different, than the EOD results. -471. But, I just stuck it out and continued to monitor whether it would eventually turn. And of course it did. But look at the pip results. -112 pips on that Thursday, and Friday was -11 pips. Not all that good. Hey. It is what it is.
The only thing I really care about is whether I am positioned correctly. And it turns out that I was. The JPY market did eventually change trends. I don’t care about some negative pips here or there. I just know that in the long run, if I’m (my trades) are going in the correct direction (following my indicator) then it’ll work itself out. That, in a nutshell, is what makes me successful. It’s the best I can do. I believe in my system.
That’s nice.
How about we look at the market? And what’s it been looking like. Well, I’ll continue with the AUD. Since that’s who else I trade. Now they were much better. No changing of the trends took place. WHAT A SHOCKER…BUT, I’LL TAKE IT!
Interesting stuff here. They topped out their bull trend on Tuesday and came down from there. See their numbers in the middle? And then look at the daily pip results. Yeah, Wed, ended up the big losing day with -802 pips. That’s kind of a lot. But, it didn’t last. Actually, they netted a positive 267 pips for the week. And they are trending strong against every other currency, hence the 7-0 figure.
You can definitely see, on each pair on Wed, that it surely looks like the trend will change (the top 4 pairs). But no. The week turns out going back with the trend.
And see, this is what I want to say. Trust me, I’m saying this to myself. But, you know what? I really don’t know what’s gonna happen. Man, last weekend, I thought for sure the AUD was gonna turn negative. I kept thinking I should be prepared for some major losses. Honestly. There’s nothing going on in the world today that justifies risk-on to keep on going. It doesn’t make sense, whatsoever (and btw…I still think this way moving forward).
And to boot, why is there indication that the JPY is getting stronger? I mean, their trend has changed to bull now. What explains that? Therefore, what explains why both of these currencies to be getting stronger? Or should I say in more demand? If you ask me, it’s irrational. The market is acting quite irrational. Who knows…maybe next week we’ll see a double top on a lot of those pairs up there, and they finally come back down (weak AUD).
I just don’t know. That’s why I simply follow my plan, and I know I’ll be successful. Well, I surely was with the AUD this week. My AUD bull trades are showing it on that chart. And, whenever they want to switch trends, then I’ll go with it. But not until I see it first. Right? Just like I do with the JPY.
Alright. Let’s see what the other currencies are doing. I’ll be doing this my way. My trend determination way. And let’s keep with the month of April. And…let’s go from the strongest down to the weakest. But since the AUD is the top, we’ll continue on with the next one down.
The GBP.
Their 6-1. You can see on the chart how the AUD is that only one currency that is trending counter trend to the GBP (it’s the 5 & 9 lines that determine that).
Next up, the JPY.
My trades are shown on a different set up (mt4). Anyway. The JPY is 5-2. The 2 trending counter to them is the one’s above (AUD, GBP), right?
Next up, the NZD. 3-4
They got strong lately, along with their brother AUD, but then turned back to bear trend this past week.
Next up, the CAD. 4-3
Next up, the CHF. 5-2
They’ve been stuck in a bear market this month, but if you look at their numbers, their actually getting a little stronger. But, their only trending strong against the USD and the EUR. It’s hard to say where their going. That’s why it’s just best to say what is, and leave it there. Their in a bear trend. That’s it!
Next up, the USD. 6-1
What can we say here? The USD is weak. That’s all. Right? Been weak.
I’m talking aggregately here. You could have tunnel vision and just look at the EUR/USD pair. Someone could easily say that the USD is not weak at all. It printed a lower swing high. That’s considered bullish, right? But, again, you can’t be so short sighted. You must see what’s going on everywhere. And against everybody. That’s the only way to correctly put things into the proper perspective. Therefore, when I see the 6-1 figure, that’s saying their trending bear against 6 other currencies, and one bull (EUR). Plus the fact of pretty much the whole month of April they’ve been in this bear market, technically speaking. So, you just need to see these other things also. That’s all.
Next up, the EUR 7-0
Now their 5 & 9 ema lines are easy to distinguish, and tell in which trend their in. If the 5 (yellow) is below the 9 (green), well then it’s in a bear market. And we have all of the 7 pairs that way.
Well, I should have put this next chart at the top, but, better late than never.
Well, for the latest, what do we have? Well, aggregately speaking, there are only 3 currencies that are trending in a bull market. The average, for everyone, is for 4 of them bull and 4 of them bear. So, the market is tilted a good bit. This is just a dynamic of the market. However it wants to split it, is the way it goes. Let’s see. Anything else I can tell you about what that chart is saying? Well, if you pay attention to any one currency, you can see some kind of tracking that it will do. Let’s look at the JPY, since I am watching this one closely. Where’s it coming from? This month, it got pretty weak (lowest it went was 5-2 bear), bottomed out, and has been climbing ever since. Broke to the bull market (green) 2 days ago. And there you have it. That’s another reason why I kind of think it’s heading upwards. We’re just gonna have to wait and see what happens. And what about the AUD? Man! They’ve been rocking it. Been at the top for some time now, this month. Well, for as long as I’ve been tracking these currencies. I’ll tell you one thing. These 2 currencies (the AUD, and the JPY) won’t be hanging out too close to one another for long. I’m telling you. It just doesn’t happen. I think something’s gonna break. Like the AUD to come on down, and join their brother the NZD. I mean look, they both were together in the green. But got separated lately. Yeah, this past week. Anyway.
Journal, I’m sure you remember my thread the Complete Currency Dynamics.
Well, all that I’m saying in here actually has it’s roots in that ideology. Cause that’s how I see the market. I won’t be short sighted just by looking at one particular currency pair only. Man. I just can’t.
So. What do you say we bring some of those line ups that I used to do, in that thread. You honestly thought I stopped doing that? I will never stop doing what I do.
Alright. Let me put all things into it’s proper perspective. First, we look at the big picture. What’s it look like since the beginning of the year?
Those are running daily totals from the years start. Well, this is what we can say. The USD is the most bought currency (a.k.a. strongest) in 2020. Up 34.10% against every other currency. And the Swiss is a close second, 32.28%. And so forth. The Comms are low, but you can see how the AUD is climbing, right? I mean, just look at the %'s. They were at -40.98%, against every other currency, back at the start of this month. And now…sitting at -7.56%. Yeah. Big moves they had, lately.
Well, that will be reflected when we zoom more in and look at the quarterly. And since we just started a new quarter, it’ll look exactly the same as my monthly running chart. Right?
Well, I threw in (no charge) an extra table for ya. That bottom table is the individual, all-by-itself, daily results. The top table is the monthly running table. Therefore, for the latest, we can see that the AUD, for this month only, is up 31.80% against every other currency. Clearly the strongest, compared to all of the other currencies. By far! And well, I can throw out to you so much info regarding all what I have here shown. Like for instance, the biggest one day gain this month was the AUD back on April 6th. 12.43%! Man…that is a lot. And I think that set the stage for the rest of the month, so far anyway.
I don’t think you want me to go back to the month of March. You would see some unbelievable numbers. Coming from the JPY. They would put to shame the AUD.
Dare me?
Alright.
Stand back.
Check this out.
What we got? The biggest one day gain? Was back on Mar 9th. The JPY had a one day gain of 21.03%. Now that’s saying something! And what about the largest move, period? On Mar 13th, the JPY dropped -22.41%. Now that was probably a record one day biggest move, in a very long time I bet.
So, all I’m saying here is this. You have to put all things into it’s proper perspective. Yeah. Last month, was volatile. Some big moves.
Well, well, well. Take a look at who takes the month in total. The EUR does! They were the most bought currency for the month of Mar. Not by a runaway though. And you see. That’s another dynamic. It was slow and steady wins the race, for the EUR. They didn’t break any kind of records that month. In fact, their biggest one day gain was 7.03% gain in the first day of the month. What’s that? But it was throughout the entire 22 days of trading that you have to account for. And that’s the reason why I like to keep track of the running totals. It’s a perspective. They were the most bought currency. Just add them all up.
Anyway. I can go on and on about all my data, there. You just have to know what questions to ask, to get some good answers. In any case, thanks for letting me throw out there some of my complete currency dynamics. This is what I do every day. Interesting stuff.
Well, thanks for listening, Journal. I think I over stayed my welcome. Sorry that’s it’s a lot. This post has been done over hours and hours today, due to the many breaks I’ve taken.
If I find any more interesting stuff, I’ll come back.
But thanks Journal.
Mike
P.S. —Almost forgot.
Documentation purposes.
AUD account - 2nd full week results
- +1.22%
JPY account - 2nd full week results
- -10.74%
TOTAL - for 2nd week
- -9.52%
MONTH RUNNING
- AUD - 1st week (+2.72%) & 2nd week (+1.22%) = +3.94%
- JPY - 1st week (+2.01%) & 2nd week (-10.74%) = -8.73%
- TOTAL MONTH RUNNING = -4.79%
AUD account balance. Month started out with $30k. Net asset value is what’s the latest running account balance.
JPY account balance. Month started out with $22,296.00 The equity balance is what’s the latest running account balance.
Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat. April 25th.
Ok. So. Just now, I finished up with all my tallying. The Friday numbers, my account numbers, like everything. So I figured I should get this nonsense out of the way (cause I normally do this at the very end).
Well, I had a good week. Very interesting stuff happening. Oh…I want to talk about this. And will. But I need to cap all this stuff off right now. I’ll do this just like I have it down in my Business Journal.
-JPY account-
- Begin balance = $20,302.76
- Ending balance = $21,540.82
- Total = +6.09%
HOW:
- No trend switches
- 2 sizes on - running all week
- +322 pips - Perfect system
- +644 pips - My actual trading
--AUD account-
- Begin balance = $31,193.55
- Ending balance = $32,524.80
- Total = +4.26%
HOW:
- No trend switches
- +760 pips - Perfect system
- 1 size running
TOTAL - For this 3rd complete week
- +10.35%
TOTAL - For the month running
- AUD +8.2%
- JPY -2.64%
- +5.56%
The JPY account latest.
The AUD account latest.
Well, I didn’t have to do anything this past week with my trading. As stated above, in the HOW sections, no switching trends took place. Which means that I do nothing. Take a look.
Well, I backed it up since April started. You can see this week no changes.
Now. I think I’ll start off the conversation with this. Something I said last week.
I’m basically referring to what I said at the end there.
Hey…who am I? I’m nobody. Honestly. I’ll eat my words. Any day. And I will right now. Cause take a look at what happened this week.
The JPY, on Monday, actually got more bullish and notched up one more trend, since last Friday (from 5-2 to 6-1 now). That means that the AUD is the only currency they are trending bear against. Which means the AUD is trending bull against every other currency. Basically. The both are strong. In fact, no one else is stronger. All week, mind you! They are #1 and # 2. No one is budging. Just yet.
So yeah. I’ll eat my words. I’m wrong. This is not normal. And, in the past, I would’ve bet on it. You know, like placed some trades in favor of the AUD going down. And yeah, once again, I would’ve lost money this week. Of course. This all doesn’t make sense.
But.
I don’t trade that way, think that way, guess that way anymore. How many times, Journal, have I told you that I’m tired of guessing which way the market is gonna go. We just do not know. That’s why I put my money where my strategy is. And, once again, as I have said multiple times on this journal, I trust my strategy. So yeah, that’s the interesting part for me this week. Each and every day I’m like…“when is the AUD gonna come back crashing down. And the whole risk aversion market sentiment gonna come back. Like, with the JPY heading it all up?” And each and every day the market says otherwise.
It’s ok though. Deep down what’s most important to me is that I’m following my trading plan. And it hasn’t been telling me to switch trend directions. Therefore I do not. But, I have to tell ya, it’s so nice to see my trades going in the direction the market is going. And of course my account balance going up.
Well, all I can say is that apparently I am learning. This has got to be what a real trader experiences. To follow your plan and not get caught up in what the market does. Now that’s deep stuff. I think.
Anyway. That’s nice.
You know…on Friday (yesterday) I read something interesting. I subscribe to Kathy Lien’s articles (free of course). 3 Rate Decisions, GDP & Earnings Mark Busy FX Week | Investing.com I like that app. Anyway. She said that she really thinks that next week will be a turning point. And the risk-off scenario will be coming back. She laid out all of what’s up and coming for the week (economic indicators etc…). But that’s what she’s saying, and thinking. I mean, of course I agree with her. I’ve been saying this for a couple weeks now. But in the end, we’ll have to see what happens. She has been wrong before. Then again, who hasn’t!
That’s nice.
Hey journal. Check this out. I’m gonna get going. But I wanted to end this on a different note. This past week I had to get a picture out to my school bus students. My company was trying to round up all of the bus drivers. They’ve been trying to put together something for all of the kids. You know, like having something to remember us bus drivers by. So, I finally got my picture out there to them. They needed to know our bus numbers in the pic.
Well, this is what I came up with.
And that is my bus. 104.
Trish took that picture one day. I’m actually driving. But sitting at a stop light. See, every single day at 3:18pm I arrive at that light. I have to turn left whenever it turns green. But she took that pic from her office window (she’ll see me there everyday). But, I love that picture. So, I put it as my desk top background.
Anyway. This is the pic that I sent to my company. So now, the kiddies will be able to see me and remember me. My boss really liked it also.
Well, there won’t be any more school for the rest of the year. What can we do? All I’m doing is working on my business, as you should very well know Journal. Right? I mean, what else is there?
I’ll be back driving that bus come late summer.
Everything will work out.
Alright Journal.
I’ll see ya next time.
Mike
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Good morning Journal.
It’s Sun May 3rd.
Well, let’s try this a second time. I did come in here yesterday. I sat down. Typed some. Was thinking & thinking. I don’t know. I just didn’t feel all that inspired. So I just scraped it all. Sorry Journal.
So, let’s see. What is going on? What do I want to talk about?
Well, the most obvious thing that I should talk about is a summary. April’s month trading summary. We did just turn the calendar. And yeah, I did spend a lot of time writing up a good summary in my Business Journal. I spent a couple days doing all that. Got all the stats. Took a good look at all what went down this past month. Asked some questions like…Did I make any mistakes? Do I need to make any changes?
So, without repeating all of the same stuff, I’ll throw it a little differently in here. Let’s see, what kind of summary can I do for the month of April? Well, let’s do some questions.
-
Did I follow my strategy?
Yes. -
How did my strategy perform?
JPY - not so good.
AUD - very good. -
What’s my metrics?
JPY = -12.96% // $ - 2,890.32
AUD = +12.99% // $ +3,898.87 -
How many times did the trends switch?
JPY = 4 times
AUD = 2 times -
JPY - perfect system / day late system produced:
+197 pips / -2,331 pips -
AUD perfect system / day late system produced:
+5,471 pips / +2,347 pips -
My trading produced:
JPY = -432 pips (-12.55%)
AUD = +2,868 pips (+12.42%)
Let me explain again.
The only differences between the perfect system & day late system comes down to when the trend switches direction. The JPY switched trend directions 4 times. So, according to my system, the absolute best one can get out of following the JPY perfectly would have only been +197 pips. But, on the other hand, the worst possible outcome (by switching at the end of the day those 4 times), anyone with a heartbeat can do, would’ve produced -2,331 pips. Basically, that’s the upper and lower bounds of my system. And I came in around the middle of that (-432 pips).
Same with the AUD. You can see what the upper and lower bounds are. And basically, any conscious bearing human being can follow that and end up producing that good amount of +2,347 pips that month. I came in a little better than that. But also a point about them is that they only switched trend directions twice this month. Which means that you are doing nothing at all with their running trades. All 7 AUD pair trades are simply running.
Take a look.
And all of the daily pip results are right there at the bottom. And again, the differences between the 2 systems is all about the pip results on that day that the trend changed directions.
It’s obvious why the JPY didn’t do so well. Look at the 4 times when they changed directions. The bottom row is the daily pip results for the perfect system (the day late system is just the negative of that).
- 587 pips
- 228 pips
- 112 pips
- 561 pips
Bottom line is - They’re tough. As opposed to the AUD. Now they just had a rough start to the month. But then, for the rest of the month, it’s nothing but staying in the correct trend. Which was quite easy.
So therefore, what can I say about my trading?
AUD - For the most part, easy as pie. I’m not a genius. I only made money because I stayed the course, right? It’s all about my system. Which works. And the fact that the AUD doesn’t change course a whole lot (like the JPY does). And while we’re here, let’s look at them. According to my trend strength (inside number) they topped out on Apr 14th. Their bull trend actually started to go downhill from there. But, if you look, you’ll see that they still produced some positive pip days.
JPY - The third week of the month (20th - 24th) was the only week that they didn’t change trend directions. The only reason why I made money that week was because I was in with 2 sizes on every one of my 7 JPY pairs. Basically all my pip results were doubled. I took the good with the bad.
And now would be a good time to explain how I can possibly make up the difference between those 2 systems (which explains how my results are in the middle). And that’s by adding another position size to my block trades. I trade the 7 pairs as one trade. Therefore, when I say I put on another size, that means I just add another same size on each pair. When I do that, I will count the resulting pips twice (cause those results are what you would get if you had all 7 pairs running with one size on them).
I should have been doing some of that with the AUD. But, as I have been telling you all month long, I’ve been assuming that they were gonna dive on back down and sometime go bear market. But that never happened. See. I could have been making double the pip results each and every day with them. I could have made up the lost pips that I missed in the beginning of the month. Right? But look. That’s evil to do. Doing the wouldof, couldof, shouldof.
Anyway.
My only goal is to match the perfect system. And I do believe I can do that. All I will be doing is looking for the opportunities to make up those pips lost during the trend switches. See? I’m surely not out to make as much as I can. I’m not out to get the most of whatever is possible either. As I have put down in my business journal, I’m just trying for that benchmark.
I do have to tell ya Journal. I did have to make a new rule. Cause I got burned pretty badly at the turn of this month. With the AUD. And frankly, I don’t want to talk about it. Cause it hurt. But, the new rule for me is this. I’ll just throw up for you my mind map. I do plan on filling this out very much. This has to be a place I go to in order to make sure I am always on track.
Let’s see.
Where am I at?
Big picture.
The “Year of Simulation” has been unraveling quite successfully.
I’ve been able to pay my bills each and every month. Meaning, I’m still withdrawing from the account(s). And able to continue.
I’m still keeping track of my monthly “cash flow & income” statements.
This was the first month of trading with another account. The AUD. It’s much more promising than with the JPY account (pairs).
I’m still learning how best to run my system.
Gaining much more experience.
I am on the road that I should be on. And with 100% of my entire being, I truly believe that He is guiding me along the way. Cause I belong to Him.
Alright Journal.
The story will continue.
Mike
Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat May 30th.
Well, I guess I can’t put you off forever. Time to pay the piper. Let’s see. Where do I begin?
What can I say? I had a bad month. And at the present time, I’m really trying to pick myself up and know where I went wrong. But boy am I glad I got the weekend to sort things out for myself. Cause the new month starts on Monday. And I need to do things differently. I did close out both accounts yesterday. I need a fresh start come Monday.
I don’t know.
The question I need to answer is What am I doing wrong?
Is it me? Or is it my trading system?
Or…is it the market?
Maybe a combination of all 3.
Well, let’s see. We’re gonna have to take a look. And that’s precisely what I’ve been working on a lot this month. Not particularly my strategy, per se. But more about having the best possible view of what’s going on in the market. I think I came up with a very good…view. Let me show you.
Ok. So. We got all 8 currencies. And a lot of good info going back to mid April.
Each of them is either in a bull market (green) or bear market (red). And I’ve put them in a line up that, presently, reflects the strongest down to the weakest. Let’s look at the latest (May 29th), far right.
I know I have the AUD on top, but technically the NZD is stronger at the moment. And has been in the last 3 days. But this is how we read this data.
- NZD - in a bull market. Strength being 172 (pips). Trending bull against everyone (7-0).
- AUD - in bull market. Strength 166. Trending bull against everyone except the NZD (6-1).
- EUR - in bull market. Strength 120. Trending bull over all but 2 (5-2).
- CAD - in bull market. Strength 102. Trending bull over all but 3 (4-3).
- CHF - in bear market. Strength 21. Trending bear over the top 4 currencies (4-3).
- GBP - in bear market. Strength 128. Trending bear over the top 5 (5-2).
- USD - in bear market. Strength 178. Trending bear over the top 6 (6-1).
- JPY - in a bear market. Strength 233. Trending bear over all others (7-0).
That’s the latest. Sure. That’s nice. But, being put this way gives us a good idea of how they got there. Just look up there at the AUD. They haven’t changed out of that bull market the whole time. It was at the beginning of April, for 3 days of bear. In any case, if you look, you can see what kind of strength or weakness they traversed within that bull market. The higher the number, the stronger they were, in that market.
Well, there’s a lot of info you can get out of all that. Trust me. So. How about I give sort of a summary on each currency. I’m gonna leave the AUD till last. You’ll see why. Oh, one more thing I have to explain. If you look closely you’ll see each on each of their standing numbers (ie…7-0, 6-1, 5-2) that they are either red or green. That is for me to be able to quickly see whether they went down (red), or went up (green). It’s like a momentum thing, for me. We would want to see green in a bull market, right? That would be moving upwards. Same as in a bear market. Red indicates moving downward. Should (does) it always coincide? Nope. But, if you really look close enough, you’ll see the momentum change just before the market technically changes. Ok. Back to the summary.
-
NZD - their technically stated market doesn’t match too closely with the AUD. But, what does match with the AUD is the momentum. When the AUD dips down, it’s not enough to change markets. But the NZD ends up doing so.
-
EUR - the progression seems to be that they are climbing out of an extended bear market to bull. Maybe even to stay bull for awhile.
-
CAD - has been flowing more along with the other Comms lately. Surely this is not always the case. They have strong tendencies to ride along with the USD. Which means the opposite of a Commodity currency.
-
CHF - normally follows the EUR. When in a bear market, sure, they ride together and it’s harmonious. But not so much in the bull market. They just don’t like being too strong.
-
GBP - for days and days all 3 European currencies were riding together in their respective bear markets. Talk about harmony. But, I think the Pound is finally coming out of that bear market. It’s a long road ahead though.
-
USD - it’s no surprise that the JPY rides along side the USD. Just compare their market trends. And yet, check this out. Compare their momentum (colors). You will see, if one has an up day so will the other one. It is amazing. You would think that the JPY is pegged to the Dollar (I actually think it is, in a certain way).
-
AUD - I didn’t mention what those particular numbers are on the AUD (on bottom row). Well, I wanted to know what the pip count would be if you have traded all 7 AUD pairs (basically trading this complete currency). Going back to the beginning of April. So we’re talking 2 months of letting them go and seeing what the results are. That’s what that is. A running pip total. Here’s the results in a chart form.
That’s over 5k pips, in 44 trading days (2 months).
Trust me, this pains me to look at. Cause this is precisely my trading plan. Just simply trade a complete currency (7 pairs running). Perpetually. And staying in the particular bull or bear market. Well, with the AUD. You can see that they just don’t switch back and forth from the markets (like most of all the others).
The whole entire point here is that there’s money to be made just by staying in a currency. Letting it ride out. And moreso when there’s not much of the switching of markets. Way too much slippage. Anyway.
Look. I keep track of many, many numbers. Trading a complete currency is what I specialize in. I’ll throw out to you what the daily pip counts look like.
Complete currency pip counts.
Those are the daily results, if you were to be in the 7 particular pairs of each currency.
That’s nice. I know.
It’s my thing. But, I’m still trying to find success with it.
Well, while I’m at it. I’ll throw out to you what this month looked like, in regards to specific daily %'s.
The bottom table are each days specific, all by itself daily totals.
The top table is each currencies running totals for that month.
Boy, I thought the AUD was going downhill just after NFP Friday.
Nope. Didn’t last long. Came back up. And is top dog. Ending the month being 20.33%.
And well, let’s give some more perspective to them.
Bottom right corner is the legend (of the colors).
Well, lest we all forget. Since the beginning of the year, the AUD is not even in positive territory (-8.20%). But, for the quarter running, look out. They have everyone’s head. Running since April 1st, now at 67.75%.
The EUR finally took over the CAD, for third place (quarterly running). And speaking of the EUR. Well, well, well. Look who’s the most bought currency since the beginning of the year. They are!
Well, I’ve got to run. Don’t want this to be my 3rd time writing something out and not putting it out there.
I will be coming back this weekend. I want to put out there my trading plan, moving forward. I will explain thoroughly.
Mike
Journal.
Well, I have some more time.
Let’s look at the currencies. And this surely reminds me of the Babypips weekly summaries of all the currencies, write-ups. Which I love, by the way. So. Why can’t I do the same thing? In my way. I just take a much broader look at 'em. Individually.
The USD. Going back to the start of the quarter.
The USD against each of the other 7 currencies. Being in either a bull market or bear market. And on the right, is the aggregate sum total. Presently, they are in a bear market (red). With a strength of 178. Trending bear against 6, and 1 bull (6-1). And the only other thing I have there is the daily pip count. -85 for Friday. Straight up, it’s what it means. The USD lost -85 pips. BTW…matches good with being in a bear trend. So, it trended. A counter trend would be the opposite (bull market with minus, bear market with positive). Well, all we need to do is scroll back and see the progression.
Or…I could show you what all this equates to on the charts. I’ll match it up.
So, the EUR/USD shows a strength of 43 right? Well, all that is, is the amount of pips in between my 5 and 9 ema lines. I call that the pip spread.
Let me throw out some facts about their progression. The USD.
This week.
- Aggregately speaking, from bearish to more bearish. 28 - 178
- No aggregate trend change.
- Specifically speaking, against the GBP. From bull trend to bear trend.
- Massive down day on Tuesday (-722 pips). Maybe because Monday was a holiday and when the US came back, it was nothing but a pile on.
The prior week.
- Was at the end of a bull trend, and changed over to bear by Wed.
- But, instead of continuing to lose pips on those last 2 days of the week, they gained a whole lot. That was a major countertrended 2 days (it did not match their stated trend).
- Speaking of counter trend. That Monday was another counter trended day. -554 pips being in a bull trend (aggregately speaking).
- The prior Friday the USD was trending bull against each and every one of them. Everything changed that following Monday. EUR, AUD, CAD all turned bullish against the USD. THAT WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE TURN.
Look. We can go back and compare how the USD fares against each currency.
Yet, we can compare how each individual pair compares against the aggregate sum total. What you will end up seeing is that the more pairs change and agree on whatever trend it is, that’ll end up being what their aggregate trend turns out to be.
What I find, pertaining to the USD, is that they change trends (aggregate) quite often. Seems like anyway.
Well, moving forward. After looking at their entire progression, up above, you would think that this coming week…what? Change back to a bull market? Why sure. Why not? I mean, have we had 2 consecutive weeks of the USD being in a bear market? Nope. It’s always back and forth. Relatively speaking.
Let me remind myself. We’re going into another month. It’s a new start. We really do not know what’s going to happen. There’s much more we need to look at. Let’s see. What can I throw up here, to make this point?
This is a view of who’s in either a bull market (green) or bear market (red). So, has there been a dominating theme in the month of May? Well sure there has been. The Comms. This was even the case last month (April). And take a look at what the JPY did at the beginning of the month. Boy, they tried to keep the top spot. I think that NFP was the cause for knocking them down. Cause ever since…not good. Even the USD gave it a shot towards the top, on the 13th and 14th. Then the climax on the 15th. Top spot! Well, that was shot lived, huh? Down it goes, along with the JPY. They travel together.
The question is…will the Comms be taken out of the top? And by whom?
Very well could be the EUR.
Alright then, let’s dig into them.
Gonna have to cut this and start anew with the EUR. Their progression.
Coming right back.
Mike
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Good morning Journal.
It’s Sun May 31st.
Let’s talk a little bit.
Well, life is pretty much the same around here. With some minor changes. Let’s see. It’s still me and Trish. She does work from home. Believe it or not, she still has her job. Cause she’s an admin personnel for an oil company. Their niche is on engineering of new well start ups. They went through many, many layoffs. Did get a pay cut. But, it’s a wonder she’s still employed. Their company got bought out. So much restructuring happening with them. Anyway.
Me. Well, of course I’m still unemployed. The good thing is that I’m collecting unemployment. That whole thing took awhile to get through. But finally, I’m able to be supported. It was a huge relief. So now, I’m just trying to get through my days in good mental shape. Some days are harder than others.
And speaking of getting into shape. I’ve picked up running again. Boy…all I got to say is that the older you get, the harder it gets. So yeah. It was probably around the beginning of May that I finally got out there. Yeah man, I dusted off my running shoes and just did it. I started off small. I would run on every street in my neighborhood. Hills included (that’s a big problem around here…too much elevation changes!). So anyway. In the morning time, after the sun rises, I made it my challenge. Have to accomplish something. This is what it’s been.
Then after a week to 2, I got more daring. No more running inside our housing development. It’s time to hit the streets (you know, where they paint on them). So, I found a good 2 mile circle. Me and Trish took the car out and measured. And so it began. The mileage. I still progressed my way up. Like to do that 3 times in a week. Well then, I started getting bored going in small circles. I got real daring and just went on other different roads. Trish had an old fit bit that I used. That’s a device you wear on your wrist that tells you how far your traveling. So, how about I just run for a mile out, then turn back. Ok. Well, that was a lot of fun.
And well, whoever knows me, knows that I can get carried away with things. Look. It’s only been a month now. But, I ended up purchasing an expensive fit bit (more like a smart watch sort of thing). Actually it’s a fancy GPS thing that I wear on my wrist. Oh, and I got the strap with it also. That goes around my mid section. So when I go running, boy, I have all kinds of data to later check out. That would be on this app on my phone. I can see what my heart rate was. What my step count was. Oxygen level. Man…I can even see on a map where I went! It’s a GPS right?
Anyway. Yeah, I’ve been running. I went something like 18 miles in one week (7 days). But after a couple of weeks of that, then I’ve been noticing some pain in my joints. I had to back off. And like I said, it’s only been about one month now since I started. But today will be the second day in a row that I haven’t gone for a run. I need more rest in between runs. I just hope I can continue this. I really…really…don’t want to lose it. I mean look, I’m not going all that far now. My minimum running distance is 3 miles at a time. And frankly, I only went as far as 3.85 miles at one time. But…I’m telling you…the hills are a killer! I can prove it by looking at the data and see the elevation change. It’s alllllllllll there. The only good thing about hills is, the down part. It’s like a huge recuperation period. My heart rate comes back down. My breathing gets much easier. And it just feels like no effort needed.
Anyway. Trust me. I know. The older you get, the harder it is to see changes take place. The body is just so resistant to change! But…I figure…after so long of running…you just have to slim down, right? I mean, does anybody really see a heavy, out of shape runner? No way! All runners seem to be slim, fit, and just looking good. Well, I just hope to turn into, or at least resemble what a runner looks like. And that’s why I really, really, want to continue this. I want to be healthy. And on the other hand…I honestly enjoy it so much! Just getting out there, where only the cars belong, running alongside the woods, enjoying God’s creation, with the sun rising above the horizon, all by yourself, is simply wonderful! There’s one part where I call it Mt. Ararat. Cause it’s the highest place anywhere around where I’m at. And also at that time I feel like Forest Gump. When he ran. The scene when he sees the sun set, or sun rise, one of the two.
Sorry Journal. That’s pretty stupid. In any case. It’s some kind of accomplishment, for me, during my days. But, other than that, well, I’m still working on my business. That’s about all I can call it. I’m always doing something. Sometimes not too sure whether I’m making any kind of progress or not. I just don’t know. In any case, it’ll have something to do with my numbers. You know, the data that I like to collect. I don’t know…I’m always arranging them in some different fashion. And that’ll be my EOD totals.
I mean, what else can you do in a day? Watch the news in the morning time. Mid day. Evening. Eat in between those times. But…what else? Day…after day…after day…Yeah. Sometimes I wonder if I battle with depression. I mean, I really don’t know. Could be possible. But, the one thing I absolutely won’t budge on, is the spending my time with Him, first thing in the morning. But…I’ll tell you a little secret. Every single day I wake up, I always say this. “It’s one more day closer.” All I will say about that is this. I’m a person who always needs something to look forward to. One of these days I will be with Him. It’s just a matter of time.
That’s nice.
Anyway Journal. I’m starting to get lost here. If I don’t get this out there, it won’t happen. Again.
And I still want to throw out there my trading plan. Looks like it has to be today. Like before the open. So…let me gather my thoughts on it and I’ll be right back with it.
Thanks for letting me talk Journal. Was fun.
Let’s get back to work, huh?
Mike
1 Like
Hey Journal.
Alright. Here we go.
I’m gonna have to do this as we go (meaning along with you as I speak). Time is running out. The open is coming in about 3 hours from now.
Oh, and as we go, I’m gonna be inputting all of this in my business Journal. Cause there’s nothing I do without it being noted. That’s a very important aspect of my trading system. Documentation is like proof, to myself.
That’s nice.
Ok. Look. This is what I have in mind right now. A lot of thought, contemplation, prayer, everything went into this. And it was on Friday. I just want you to know that this isn’t a rash decision thing or anything. I went back and reflected on what I like about my trading system. What I don’t like. What works. What doesn’t work. Etc… And this is what I got.
Trading a complete currency
This is me. I can’t let this go. It’s original. I don’t care what anybody else does. I do think this is a proprietary thing. Cause I came up with it! Anyway. This is something that goes deep. It’s like a personal journey. I want so bad to get good at it. And I know it’s gonna take some time. Some more time, that is.
I track, follow, document, record, analyze, pay detailed attention to each and every one of the eight currencies. Have always. And it’s in the methodology of a complete currencies format. Therefore, I want my trades to be that way. (I’m sorry Journal. Does it seem like I’m trying to justify what I do? Like having to defend my actions? I’m sure it does. I am aware of that. But, I guess there’s other reasons why I am questioning my decisions. It all comes down to something I said a long time ago. “When you can get to the bottom of knowing why you do what you do, then you’ve make some serious progress.” And that usually comes about by keep asking questions.)
And what is trading a complete currency? Out of all of the 8 currencies, one currency in total means having 7 trades (with the one common denominator currency) running as one trade. All with the same size on. All in the same direction. Completely as one trade.
Letting my trades run perpetually
This is another thing I feel is more beneficial to me than any other way of doing it. Like trying to guess when to get in and when to get out. That, to me, is primitive. To be anything close to being a consistently profitable trader, I think, the better way is to be positioned correctly instead. It’s more of a longer term approach (swing trading to position trading). Being on the correct side of a trend seems easier to me to accomplish than trying to accomplish a profit on each trade. Oh, and concerning the aspect of not having a stop loss and profit taking place. Well, honestly, I haven’t had any real problems. Or regrets. In fact, it’s quite liberating. That is not a factor to me anymore. Look. I just don’t ever think about that. It’s amazing that thought has even entered my head just now.
What particular currency
This is becoming more clearer to me, as I go. You know Journal, it’s always been with the JPY. And I’ve had my problems with them. The big problem with them has always been in how their stated bull or bear market constantly changes. That spells doom for me. That slippage is way to much to try to get back. Next thing you know it’s changing again. Practically impossible.
As you know Journal, beginning in April I added on another currency. The AUD. I had a wonderful month in April. But this month was not so good. I know where I went wrong (I’ll get to that shortly). But the AUD just does not change the stated trend all that much. I have the back data to see that. In any case. My plan is going to be with the AUD. Only. I’m gonna be done with the JPY. Sure. I had a great month of Mar. I made thousands and thousands of pips. Well, a few thousand anyway. But how many months are we going to have where the market tilts so much that way? It really was an anomaly. I can’t wait for that to happen again. I mean, I don’t know, maybe if the landscape presents itself again, then maybe I’ll open up to the JPY again. But not until then.
In the meantime, I’m gonna trade the AUD until it proves unworthy.
I just had a thought. I wonder if there will be a way for me to pick correctly the right currency to trade (complete currency trading) for the most conducive trading environment. I don’t know. Something should tell me that I need to trade this particular currency during this particular time. Know what I mean? Like a real no-brainer type trading scenario. Man…I need to remember this thought process. Gonna write this down now.
Alright. Where was I?
More of my plan. But, I need to explain something first. Where mostly all my mistakes took place. And that had to do with the adding of position sizing. Man…the whole entire time I’ve dealt with this issue it always brought back the memories, bad ones, of the whole thing of when to do things and when not to do things.
In fact, this is precisely the same issue of what I mentioned up above. Traders are always trying to find the best place to get in and the best place to get out. That whole thing! It’s nothing but a guessing game. The market is not predictable. The market doesn’t behave the way you think it’s going to. The timing of everything that happens in the market is not something you can count on. Then, to boot, trying to create some kind of consistency to your trading. Impossible. Ain’t gonna happen.
Well, I was falling trap to many of those emotions that come with that whole territory. When is the best time to add on another position size? How long do I keep it on? When do I take it off? Is there a particular place to do this? A particular time? When the momentum is on, or off?
Needless to say, all of those questions I just couldn’t answer. I got burnt. Had 2 sizes on when I shouldn’t have. Surely had only one size on when I should have had 2. And so forth.
This.
Is.
Nonsense.
I’m done with that.
I’ve decided to go with 2 sizes on. Always. And that, in effect, will be what one position sizing will be. Cause my previous one sizing was just a little on the light side, for me. Especially given the track record of the AUD. I just showed you Journal, on that last post earlier, how they racked up over 5k pips easily this past month.
This way it’ll be high enough that I won’t ever have to worry about any kind of position sizing. Again.
Let’s see if I can give a detailed plan here.
- Trading the AUD as a complete currency
- Trading account balance of $30,000
- Position size on each of the 7 pairs will be 60,000 units (for this month)
- Stated trend will be my direction - currently is BULL
- At the open, I’m entering in. Letting them run perpetually
- The only action I would take would be if they changed to a bear market
- If & when that happens, I exit out of the long positions and immediately re-enter for short positions.
- Position sizing, at that time, will be whatever the current account balance is times 2. In units.
Alright Journal.
I got to set up another trading account. Of course it’ll be another demo account.
So, I got to run. Cause I have only around a half hour before the market opens back up.
We’ll keep in touch.
Mike
1 Like
Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat Jun 13th.
Well, I finally made it. Being here with you, Journal. Man…sometimes I just miss the good 'ol days. Getting up very early in the morning, on the weekends. Coming in here and just typing away. Those were some very good memories. And I do think a lot about how I used to do so much of that. It was a release. It just felt good. I don’t know. It’s the talker inside of me that comes out via my typing it all out. Even if it was all nonsense. I know I’ve thrown up here some crazy market stuff. You know, the way I view the market. The tables I’ve come up with. All my excel stuff. I’m probably the only one who understands it. But, it’s ok. I guess it’s supposed to be that way.
Well, here we are. It is still early. I can’t seem to wake up as early as I used to. But, at least it’s still dark out now. Quiet. And I’m gonna try to make the best of this time now. And all I want to do is get out of me what I’ve been thinking, about the market. Oh. I’ve still been working Journal. I don’t think I’ve ever stopped. Sure. Maybe not coming on in here and sharing it with you, I’ve failed to do. But, my mind constantly gravitates towards making some sense…actually trying to make the best sense out of what the market is actually doing.
Look. For me. I truly believe the best way to go about it (trading) is by knowing what’s going on in the market, first. It’s the precursor. Since we honestly don’t know what’s gonna happen next, the only thing that does make sense is to know what’s going on in the present. Right? I mean, things move. Life moves. All we have is the present. But also we have the past. It’s what has taken place already. Therefore, I think the key to everything is knowing what has happened, and what is currently taking place.
Then FOLLOW.
Isn’t that the whole reason behind the concept of a trend?
Alright. That’ll be enough of the talking.
I’ve been wanting to do some analysis. What I’m about to show you is what I believe is going on in the market. This is the best of my ability (to date, it’s my best).
Let’s see. How am I to start?
How about from the top down.
What’s going on in the market?
Top tables are individual daily line ups (it’s what happened that day).
Bottom tables are the weeks running totals (it’s the weeks perspective).
This past week -
- JPY the most bought currency this week (20.11%)
- CHF next most bought currency (11.39%)
- The top 3 are the safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF, USD)
Conclusion : money went more by way of risk-off, than risk-on
Last week, the months beginning -
- NZD most bought currency (28.11%)
- AUD equally bought (25.00%)
- JPY most sold currency (-30.40%)
Conclusion : money went more by way of risk-on, than risk-off
Let’s give more perspective for this month. Always need to remember about NFP Friday. It was the 5th. I don’t want to talk about it (cause it’s a separate discussion that’s probably pointless to correctly surmise anyway). But there usually are repercussions from it. Cause and effects. Which I just noted above. Risk-on (before) turned to risk-off (after).
Well then, we need a little more of a run up about what market environment we are currently in. I think everyone on earth should know by now what’s going on.
I call it B.C. and A.C.
We are living in the times after corona.
For me, technically, I’m calling the line in the sand Mar 13th. Besides that being the last day of work for me, that is when our President officially called our country to be in a state of emergency. That’s when everything pretty much shut down. Ok. So then. That’s the most logical place to start for the next biggest picture view of the market. Right?
I need to explain this. For perspective purposes, the more broader you go out, in explaining market sentiment, it’s best to be looking at trends. I can show you numbers all day long (like above), but that won’t necessarily make it easy. But looking at the trend will. Cause that’s, in effect, what’s been happening all along. Right? So then. Let’s look at some trends. And I want to start sometime around A.C. How about we look at what happened in the month of March.
All 8 currencies, in their respective trends (green = in bull market, red = in bear market), in an order of who was strongest to weakest in the point of time at the middle of the month. The numbers inside show how strong in that trend.
- The safe havens at the top.
- The safe havens started early on in Mar, peaked, then feel out of the bull markets and turned into bear markets.
- The USD was the last safe haven to hang on (trailed the others).
- JPY peaked the 9th. CHF peaked the 18th. EUR peaked the 18th. USD peaked the 20th.
- The risk-on currencies (bottom) peaked their respective bear markets roughly at the same time, then got stronger.
- AUD peaked 18th, the NZD peaked the 19th.
- Both the AUD, and the GBP, turned from bear markets to bull markets at the end of the month.
Ok. So. You see the perspective right? Risk-on and risk-off really puts it all into the best bottom line picture. But here, we’re able to see them all compared to one another. Their trends and where they came from.
This reminds me…of one post I read recently in here in B.P.'s. How someone is pretty frustrated with his trading, the market, everything. Sure. I’ve felt it. Actually every trader has. But, I disagree with the notion that the market is nothing but a random flow of events.
You tell me everything up there is random.
It is not.
Maybe to the untrained eye, sure, it absolutely is.
Just because you can’t get it, understand it, be successful at it, doesn’t make it so. Boy…I’ve said this before. I’ll say it again. I am so glad that the market is hard. I wouldn’t want just any shmo to be able to come on in here and make all kinds of money. Get rich. Actually become successful over and over again. Like, not by mistake either. To think you can come on in here, take the big players money, figure it all out, and live the lifestyle you want just by hitting the button at the right times, is not gonna happen.
The dynamics that occur in the market, are unlike anything else that happens in life. You just cannot figure it out. For all what is required to become a trader, is not easy to attain. I’m glad it is so. And maybe that is precisely the point. You need to become a trader. It’s a very…very…long road.
Ok. That’s nice.
Let’s move on.
Well, I’m thinking I’m gonna have to cut this and send it.
I definitely want to continue on with my analysis.
We have to see all what’s been going on in the market. There’s a lot.
Be right back.
Mike
1 Like
Journal.
Here we go.
Moving onto the month of April. Remember from where we last left off. Risk-off sentiment turned, and entered into risk-on at the end of Mar. You would think it continues, right? Let’s see.
- Risk-on most prevalent. Let’s see how.
- GBP leads the way being most bullish.
- Then they fade quickly and the AUD takes over. Becomes top dog like a week later.
- Take note of this. Momentum is indicated by me coloring in their placements as either green or red. See how the Pound (7-0) started moving down starting on the 3rd day of the month. And see how the Aussie climbs up. All this is, is the momentum within their respective trends. It’ll either be trending or counter trending. Green within a bull trend = trending. Red within a bear trend = trending. Green within a bear trend = counter trending. Red within a bull trend = counter trending.
- JPY just switches markets like every other week. Needless to say, this makes it very difficult to trade. Plus, to the extent that it goes one way or the other is not strong at all (compared to what happened in the previous month).
- USD and the JPY travel in similar markets. They both get stronger and weaker together.
- EUR and the CHF same thing. They both stayed in the bear trend that month.
- I would characterize this month as a mix. No doubt the AUD is the most bought currency, overall. Not only are they able to keep being in the bull market, but somehow manage to stay on top (7-0). That’ll be trending against every other currency.
- BUT…it’s interesting to see that the JPY (around the middle of the month) get up very strong right next to the AUD. That’s a bit uncommon. Hence, mixed market.
Alright.
Let’s move on.
- AUD, NZD, CAD, all traveling in a bull market.
- If you go back, you will see that the CAD has not always traveled in sync with the other 2 Comms. Until this month. The risk-on currencies are those 3, and not anymore with the GBP.
- GBP most weak currency up through the middle of the month, to then start a climb out (or at least retrace some of that).
- EUR and CHF in the middle of the pack not going anywhere that month.
- USD and JPY traveling together. Got strong in the beginning but wavered and fell quite hard by the end of the month.
- Speaking of the end of the month, note how all 3 European currencies are being bid up in the last 3 days. And with that in mind, look at the GBP. Their momentum. In the last 7 days they’ve climbed up in 6 of them. Very interesting. What will the month of June tell? Will all this mean anything? It’s definitely something to keep in mind.
Let’s look!
2 weeks into this month.
- The 3 Comms all started out dominating. Up until NFP Friday. Then their momentum all has gone downhill, since.
- Getting back to my previous thought, the European’s. Any follow through with their bullish momentum?
- No. Just look at their inside numbers. Strength. Nothing happening whatsoever.
- We really have to keep this perspective. Before NFP, and after NFP Friday.
- The safe haven currencies (bottom 3) started out very, very weak. But afterwards, the tune is changing.
- Look at their respective strength numbers. And of course, it’s the same thing that’s going on with the Comms above. The tide is changing.
Your either in a bull market or bear market.
Moving forward
- You have to keep in mind that the safe haven currencies are on a roll now. Short term perspective.
- It’s been quite some time since the Comms (as a whole) have been traveling in a bear market.
- The AUD is faultering and the JPY is coming off bottom.
Look.
This is all facts. But we still do not know what’s going to happen next. But, I can tell you…
- Some currency will be the most bought currency.
- Some currency will be the most sold currency.
- Some currency will be trending bull.
- Some currency will be trending bear.
Will the respective trends continue?
Will the respective trends change?
Will the currencies behave in the way they have been?
These are the questions we always want to keep in mind. Therefore, our trading should reflect the way in which we think, by what the present trading environment is showing us.
I mean, you must know what’s going on in the market. I’ve laid it all out here. This is the best we can possibly do. This is the precursor to our trading. It’s how you’re supposed to approach the market. With intelligence and knowledge.
The trading aspect is a separate conversation altogether. But as for me, as long as my trading follows along with what I see in the market, I’ll be happy.
FOLLOWING is the key.
Thanks Journal for letting me get this out.
Mike
P.S…
Here’s what my current running AUD trades look like.
It’s pretty simple. I set them at the beginning of the month. Bull market. Still running. I’ll tell you when, if, their trend changes.
Here’s my JPY trades. Bear market since the months start.
Both accounts started out with 30k at the month start.
1 Like
Good morning Journal.
It’s Sat. Jun 20th.
Well, I just finished up with the weeks numbers. So, all fresh in my mind right now. But yeah, we had a very interesting week. The market has definitely turned. I’ll have to show you. But also, if the market has turned, then that must mean that my trading must have turned. Remember, I follow it. And that’s what I did this past week. I’ll have to show you how that went also.
Ok. Well. How about we start all this off with where we were last weekend. Here’s what was happening.
Well, I did say the tide is changing. Let’s see how it unraveled.
Here’s one perspective.
It’s the simplest. The top table is what happened on each day, all by itself. The bottom table is the weekly running perspective. And of course the last day shows the total results for the week.
- JPY most bid currency +6.82%
- GBP most sold currency -10.78%
- The safe havens (all 3 of them) all running together and end up most bid than anything else
- The AUD and the NZD turning lower this week
Just a side note. The CNY (Chinese Yuan) does act just like the JPY. In the sense that it follows the USD. Just look…they simply run together.
Ok. That’s only one perspective. Got many more.
This perspective backs it out a good bit.
Who’s been trending? Or we can ask…
How has the trends changed?
Looks so much different than where we were last week at this time, right?
- All 3 safe haven currencies presently stronger than anyone else.
- Almost everyone changed markets this week
- JPY switched early, by Mon EOD - headed up to the top
- USD switched by Fri EOD - momentum carried them up there
- CAD got stronger and switched by Fri - followed the USD instead of the Comms this week
- AUD switched markets by Thurs EOD
- EUR been back and forth but this week back down into a bear market
- GBP heading pretty deep into more bear market territory
Don’t be concerned with the 2 rows of numbers under each currency. The top row is the daily cumulative amount of pips if you were to trade them as a complete currency. 7 pairs running as one. The bottom row is their cumulative running totals (from the beginning of Mar).
Their momentum (which direction they are heading in) is found by me coloring in their placement status number (ie. 7-0, 6-1). If it’s green, their moving higher (stronger). If it’s red, their moving lower (weaker).
That’s nice. I know.
How about a deeper look into a particular currency (it’s another perspective).
Who do you want to look at?
The USD.
Last week at this time they were sitting on a bear market, 166 pips in. Also they were bear against each and every other currency. Monday comes, and the results end up being USD stronger. The complete currency trading pip results ended up netting a - 270 pips. These pip results are straight up what they are. Positive = strong. Negative = weak. No matter what the stated market is. I need this to be a quick summary of what happened. So, on Monday the USD was fully in a bear market and the pip count matched (trended) it. But, you can see that in the rest of the week the pip count went higher. This is just a detailed account of how the USD fared against the others. They officially turned into a bull market by Fri. Aggregately speaking. Cause right now they are in a bear market against the CHF and the JPY, right?
Journal, you should know by now what my favorite word is.
Aggregate.
It’s the total sum of all the parts. I believe that’s the best way to see things. And when I do that to each and every one of them, how best can you compare them? In my mind, there is no other way.
How about one more. The JPY.
Started the week off being in a bear market (with a strength of 5). EOD Mon comes, and ends up being in a bull market (12). How? Just add up the numbers (they’re actually pips in their respective trends). 21 - 7 + 8 - 8 - 3 - 12 + 13 = 12 bull. So, by Thursday EOD the JPY took over the top spot. Trending bull against every other currency. And well, still heading higher at this point.
While we’re here. It was Wed at lunch time (before EOD) that I switched my JPY complete currency trades from bear market over to bull market. I’m learning how to better make the switch. Basically…not so quick! I’ve gotten burned sooooo many times getting whipsawed when I quickly and rashly switched the trades over. So, I got some new rules that I abide by. I could sum them up by saying “just wait till the dust settles”. And that’s what I did this week with the JPY. I had to make sure that was the way in which it wanted to go. Right? Only makes sense.
Alright. While I’m still here on this subject. Let’s see the AUD.
You can plainly see each and every one’s particular perspective against the AUD. With the aggregate on the right. Hey…as we’ve seen above…Mon was a risk-on day. And the AUD ended up with a total of +299 pips (complete currency trading). But since then, downhill. Changed markets by EOD Thurs. And that’s precisely when I changed over my long trades to short trades. It was before that EOD. I might have been a little early on this, but, with what’s been going on with the JPY, I figured I should go with it.
And of course, I always journal all of my moves ( in my business journal binder). I think it’s vital to explain every move I make. Why? Cause I can always go back and read my convictions, mind sets, everything. And if I see where I went wrong, then so be it. I need to learn. I always need to learn something.
That’s nice.
Well, that’s enough perspective for one day.
Let’s see if the respective trends continue.
Here’s some results, of when I switched directions with those.
This was just before I switched my JPY trades. Ended up with +14.36%
And my AUD trades.
This is what it looked like just before I switched.
Ended up with +18.25%.
Look. That’s all good and nice. That’s just what the status was just before I switched directions. I don’t take profit. My trades continually run. We’ll just have to see what things look like later on down the road. Like at the end of the month. But at least I’m in the positive now. Hopefully it’ll stay that way.
Still learning.
Mike
Have you ever thought of getting a legitimate mentor? I trade as well and this is easily the most convoluted, overly detailed, confusing trading plan I’ve ever seen. And it’s not working for you for years. yes everyone learns trading at their own speed but it’s like you’re in the same spot. I only say this because I want you to make some consistent money. Read Candlestick charting patterns, books on naked forex trading, interviews with the best traders on the planet. The material is out there. You dont need to reinvent the wheel. Trade, review why you lost or won, then try to repeat. Then review the results try to repeat.
3 Likes
Agreed!
I’m typing this only with good intention Mike like Newgenfitness.
Trading is extremely tough skill to master, its an intellectual journey that’s unlike any other not just in terms of its complexity, difficulty but because of lack of proper eduction.
Unlike doctors or engineers there’s no formal education unless we’re lucky enough to work in a fund or a bank, we’re all on ourselves which makes things difficult on a whole another level because there’s no one to guide us to the right direction to filter through garbage.
I’d like you to get a mentor or at least someone that you can imitate from but there’s one condition he or she should be a real trader no mumbo jumbo fake mentors who sells their time for a fee look around forex factory , actively look for active traders who are making a living out of day trading there’re plenty ! and read through their journal, discussion start reading up on some good books that they have recommended to read on pattern, candlestick reading , support and resistance, roles of indicators so and so forth. Pick a strategy that feels close to you and master it from someone who has mastered it ! no mumbo jumbo gurus.
There’s a time to be stubborn and there’s a time to change lane!
1 Like
Don’t waste your breath Mike.
Sorry Journal. Just a little bit.
Since 2 people have decided to come on in here and fire away opinions at someone they don’t even know, I’m gonna lay out a criteria that would warrant such nonsense. This will be for anyone else who thinks they know me.
Oh wait…I guess you could know me…if you have read this entire journal.
Have you?
Or have you just stepped in here, read a post or two, and think you know me and my trading?
I guess you don’t know that I was mentored. In fact, I even paid $3k for it and detailed out all of the information I received, and put it in this journal (your welcome). That was back in 2016 - 2017.
Have you even gone back to this years start and seen what I’m doing for this year? My goals…My plans…strategy…everything I’m about? Have you seen my results at every end of month?
Uh…sorry to disappoint you, but I’m quite happy and satisfied with everything I’m doing. Sorry it’s bothering you, much more than it is me.
That’ll be enough breath for that.
Back to my criteria idea.
Here are some common sense questions you need to ask yourself before posting anything on here.
- How much of this thread have you read?
- How much of a relationship do me and you have?
- How much do you really care?
- Since no one has illuminated more about oneself than me, how much do you really know me? (A continuation from point #1)
- Are you judging me…according to the way you think things should be done?
- Ask yourself whether you think I’m gonna care what you think?
My only point is this.
If your a passerby…then continue passing by.
But, for those who think they might be able to learn something from me, I’m gonna make a table of contents with reference points for this thread. Heck…if you want to learn how to trade just go back and follow the details from what I learned from the Exceptional Trader mentoring I went through.
Plus, I’m all about principles. Over the years I’ve laid out many, many principles that I abide by. Sure, it’s all intertwined in the myriads of paragraphs that I’ve written. But…I’m a man of principles, standards, goals, and most of all purpose.
Look. I know this thread is big. And there is not one like it, or even as long. Therefore I’m gonna have to make some kind of reference guide for some of my best moments on my journey (cause there’s a lot).
So…for those who want to follow…stay tuned (I am seeing followers pop up).
Those who don’t…please go.
Regardless, I’m still gonna do what I do.
Mike
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I’ve actually read about 2 years worth of your thread. You’re right I don’t know you just because I follow you. I actually do care to a certain degree. I have seen your trading results. I don’t understand the defensiveness. This is one of the many industries where criticism is crucial. Where outside knowledge is useful. I wasn’t just giving you a theory on how to become more profitable at trading. That is literally how you do it. That is how every successful trader does it.
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Sorry I’m coming off as some know-it-all but it is frustrating to see, cause you’re freaking passionate. That’s step one to becoming a great trader:Having an actual love for it. I just thin you’re missing some crucial info to take you to that next step.
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Here’s some highlights from this thread (my journey).
Before I begin, I do need to say (after this long thorough look from my history), that I was, and still am, in the state of unfinished business. Boy…the plans that I had. The time tables I set. All the things I thought could happen when I thought so, just never did match up with what reality dictated. I guess that’s the risk you’ll have when you put it all out there. All I can say is… yep…it’s humbling. What we think should happen, pretty much never ends up happening that way.
I know I probably look like a fool buddy. But there’s got to be a reason why I walk the roads I walk. There is one thing I know for sure I won’t be doing. That’s doing what everyone else is doing. I absolutely won’t. I’m an original. I don’t care if every single trader out there is successful and has found their holy grail. I will not look out there for the answers. All the answers are on the inside.
Plus…it’s not about the money, anyway. It’s about the journey! And this has been the most exciting venture I’ve ever experienced.
Frankly, all I really care about is whether I’m learning something or not.
My creator has got me right where I belong. What else can we possibly want?
And this brings me to probably my most important point I can make to any person. There is nothing greater in life than knowing who you are. Answering these questions will get you close.
- Why were you created?
- What’s the purpose of life anyway?
- What’s the truth concerning myself?
I:
- am a child of God
- was created to be with Him
- am a trader
- will have my own trading business
- am destined for great things, regarding trading
That’s nice.
Here’s a summary of my trading journey.
First time going live - pg.6 - JAN '16
Crashed & burned live account - pg. 56 - JUN '16
The onset of my mentoring journey - pg. 99 - SEP '16
A good summary of the contents of the mentoring program - pg. 124 - NOV '16
An apex of a conversation with my mentor Terry - pg. 152 - FEB '17
My point about simulation of trading a full time business - pg. 271 - JAN '18
The onset of when my day time job was going away - pg. 293 - MAY '18
A continuation of my day job going away - pg. 295 - MAY '18
My last day employed at the shop - pg. 317 - JUL '18
My first day on the job working my own business full time - pg. 318 - JUL '18
Summarizing previous End of Years Summarizations - pg. 390 - DEC '19
2019 year recap/this years vision - pg. 391 - DEC '19
When you know you’re doing what you should be doing, nothing else matters.
Not the money.
Not the success.
Enjoying the journey is the best thing that can possibly happen.
Ok. Let me explain this more clearly.
Money is not the goal.
Success is not the goal.
Enjoying the journey on the road to self discovery…is the goal!
Mike
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You just said “success is not the goal”. Well then I guess there isn’t anything I can say. If you want to become a trader then everything you said was pretty much wrong. This is confusing. **I don’t care if every single trader out there is successful and has found their holy grail. I will not look out there for the answers. All the answers are on the inside." That is just false. You’re ignoring the only steps to becoming profitable or being able to make a career out of something you like doing? There isn’t philosophy or God involved. Maybe I’m missing something. It’s not about being original. There is no original trading strategy. Swing trade. day trade. long term, quant trading, arbitrage, buy on pullback, trend reversal, pattern trading, zone trading, fibs, micro. Its all been done.
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