Check this out. This has my attention the most.
First off, I do keep track of the Major/Comm tilt. And lately it’s the Comms. No doubt. But, I must be aware of the Majors. I’ll show you why in a little bit.
But, here’s what I think is the most interesting thing.
CAD/CHF. In [B]all[/B] of the time frames. I should start from out to in.
Monthly time frame. CAD/CHF.
I’m taking it out to the Crisis. Around 2007.
You can see when all 3 lines and price come together, after some consolidation, get ready for another leg. Which has been down. CHF strong. Surely we remember when the Swiss rocked the world at the beginning of last year. (Man do I remember that…watched it unravel right before my eyes)
Close up view here.
But, let’s mind what’s going on in the present time now. We have all 3 lines and price converging now. So, which way will it go? Well, look at the yellow line. It crossed up over the green line only 3 months ago. And all you have to do is look back and see that whenever all 3 plus price converge, next comes the trend. All I know is that I want to be in on it. Look…it can go either way. This could easily be at the top of a hill. …Or are we going to see the purple line turn on up??? I simply don’t know.
Let’s turn on in to the weekly time frame.
This is the weekly, from the beginning of the year. We see that the trend has been low (CHF strong) till about the middle of Feb. Then the weekly trend changed. Just look at price in conjunction with the purple line.
You know what? I think we can make the correlation to fundamentals. This is Mr. Oil against Mr. Safe Haven.
So, ok, that’s nice. What do we have here? Well, it sure looks like the purple line is acting as a major support level. But, we’re not done here, because price is not really moving out anywhere yet. All I know is that I want to be in on the move. [B]And ride it out[/B]. Now, I’m going to have to note exactly where the end price of the purple line is, on all of the different time frames.
So, what about the DAILY time frame.
This is the daily from May 1st. This is where the purple line is leveling off, relatively speaking. Back and forth it has been going (price). But, actually, it looks like the purple line is biased to the downside. Lower highs and lower lows. Uh…well, maybe we just might be talking about a break out to the downside.
I don’t know. But, in any case, I really don’t care. Just as long as I am on with the trend (correct side of the purple). Once again, here on the Daily, we have all 3 lines and price converging also. See, I’m new in this game. I don’t know what I’m looking at here. Does this scenario happen often? Where, on all of the time frames, if they are converging, does it mean a really big, long, start of a trend? Man…I just do not know…but, I will surely find out what happens. All I’m going to be doing is remembering to be on the correct side of the trend.
I would have to say that since it makes most sense that trends happen in the short term before the long term, then this is looking to go south. If I see price breaking down below this purple line, then I must go short. Not only on the daily time frame, but the weekly, and the monthly also. Ok…so what is the price at the end of the purple line now?
Daily ----- .7505
And price is currently sitting at .7517 .
Ok, what is this telling me?
Price can go down…or price can go up…
Looks like [B]UP[/B] on the daily. Because we’re almost [I]lined-up[/I]. See. The only problem is price is in between the yellow and the green. That’s the only problem. Purple is on the bottom. Then Green. Then Yellow. Then next should be Price, for everything to be trending strongly high.
And the weekly again? [B]DOWN[/B]. The yellow line crossed down over the green line. And the purple now. On this weekly time frame, the trend has been high, above the purple. So, in order for a down, we will have to see a change in trends, because it has been high. …Geeeeez.
Monthly again? [B]UP[/B]. For the last 3 months price has been above the purple line. The yellow line has crossed up over the green and purple lines. Meaning in the medium term(…well, short term in the monthly time frame perspective), price has been on the rise.
Ok Journal…this is getting a little bit confusing. Bear with me. I’m trying to sort this all out.
Maybe this is all a good thing. Because remember, I just do not know where price is going to go!!!
All I need to be concerned about is getting in on the trend. And I should consider myself lucky at this point because there is a lot of converging going on. So, what do I need to remember?
See, this is what I want to do this week. Since I am at a good place (in regards to the purple line), (and it’s at the beginning of the month, and second half of the year) I want to get in on a monthly trade, weekly trade, and daily trade. Hey…what about hedging? I can get in on one going high, say the daily, and one going low on the weekly, and one going high on the monthly. !!! All with stop losses in place. Until I see what direction price wants to go.
I don’t know.
Well, let’s look at the 4HR time frame. What is this telling me?
I have to switch to another post.